Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
Friday evening
Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.
The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.
That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.
Thursday evening
Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.
Wednesday evening
What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.
Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.
The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.
Tuesday evening
Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.
My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.
In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.
Sunday evening
Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.
That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:
Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.
Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.
Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.
Saturday evening
After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.
Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.
It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.
This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.
meher baba:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:03 am
As a former criminal defence lawyer, I intuitively knew that “show trials,” longer sentences, and a presumption against bail for young offenders were the panacea. I even thought that bringing back stocks to humiliate youthful offenders would act as both a general & personal deterrent. In my myriad visits to the prisons & the detention centre in Wacol, defendants would tell me that if the authorities were to get serious about punishment, they would have never thought about transgressing. I congratulate Crisafulli on his win, and in no time, crime will reduce dramatically & we can all sleep safely.
Re: the Mackay result
In terms of the “big narratives”, obviously it’s a mining town, and there’s the issues around lack of royalties being reinvested in the local community. Then there were increased expectations around the superprofits tax being reinvested that weren’t met. But obviously these are almost eternal issues in these communities and it hasn’t produced these kinds of results previously.
The thing that has absolutely killed the ALP out here is local state government service delivery failures. In Mirani, it will be the crisis in teachers at the high school in Sarina. The big one in Mackay is obviously the failings in multiple parts of the Mackay Base Hospital, particularly the Obstetrics service. This is also why you’ve seen a 15% swing against the ALP in Gladstone. Then there was there was the absolutely catastrophic misjudgement and mishandling of the Pioneer-Burdekin pumped hydro plan, which I could write a PhD on. Visit Eungella and you’ll understand it within minutes of arriving, but to someone who doesn’t know the place it’s very difficult to explain. I know the people of Mirani, Mackay and Callide well, and absolutely trust me that people in Mirani and Mackay would very much rather a nuclear reactor in Callude than a 20 billion dollar plus pumped hydro plant on the upper Pioneer, and the people in Callide would rather get a nuclear reactor, too. It represents much better continuity for the local workforce. But regardless, people lecturing them from Brisbane on the topic made locals who are actually really very knowledgeable (we’ve got a very high density of engineers and engineering knowledge across this part of the state ) around energy generation very, very angry. More than anything, it this constant lecturing and belittling from inner city Brisbane that’s resulted in the kind of fury that is the only thing that can produce an 18% swing. The place was seething. This is the big picture stuff.
Then you have an outstanding local candidate in Nigel Dalton, who is straight from central casting for a local campaign. A 20 year local copper who has run a highly effective local youth engagement and intervention program. He has a very high profile around town and is enormously popular. He is the personification of the solution to “youth crime”, and the local community know it.
And then Nigel worked his arse off. And had guidance from a very effective local campaigner in Amanda Camm next door in Whitsunday, who has also turned in a nearly 18% swing. And a group of absolutely determined volunteers who were frequently topping the statewide doorknocking leader boards.
Meanwhile, the poor local ALP candidate very badly damaged her knee literally the day before she was given the local nomination. There is no getting around it, these kind of local ground campaigns require a massive amount of leg work by the local candidate, and I really feel for Belinda because she just couldn’t do it. She must have battled through very significant pain to keep going.
Lastly, the emphasis on Steven Miles and narrative from Brisbane was absolutely catastrophically misjudged for the local community. Literally, the very top of their campaign signage was 50c public transport fees, a topic many locals were furious about. They would much rather see that money go into expanding the incredibly limited local public transport options, rather than effectively subsidising people living in multi million dollar homes in inner city Brisbane. That messaging was completely toxic up here.
BW: “Samara’s points outline above are, IMO, on the money.
The Right has managed to persuade lower paid workers that it really cares for them by doing the old unicorn of bashing migrants and people of colour around the head. It is working for Trump. It worked for Wilders. It will work for Dutton. He cares for lower paid workers. He really does.
I assume that in due course the lower paid workers will actually realize that the Right is truly interested in only one thing: suppressing their wages. But their electoral prey do seem to be slow on the uptake.”
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Well I’m glad for his sake that Kos got something right about this election, because in my eyes he made a fool of himself by going far too early last with a prediction of a hung parliament when it was perfectly clear that no pre-poll votes had yet been counted, so nobody had any real idea as to what was going to happen. Antony Green and the the politicians on the ABC panel were suitably circumspect, but not Kos.
Anyway, the shift in class alliances cuts both ways. Not only is the Coalition gaining more and more votes from “traditional working class voters” in suburban seats (many of whom are in fact first or second generation non-Anglo migrants, but never mind about that), but a growing proportion of the ALP’s core consituency – particularly the Anglos aged 40+ – are decidedly well off. And, while some of the politicians and other leaders from the ALP and the associated trade union movement remain strongly engaged with the needs and wants of the working class, the ever-growing chardonnay socialist set that votes for them are not.
A great indication of how far this trend had gone was the ascendancy of Julia Gillard to the Labor leadership in 2010. She was the first Labor leader for the best part of 50 years who actually sounded like a genuine working class person (much though I loved Hawke, I have been told by people who knew him when he was at the ANU that he sounded quite different back then). But Gillard’s accent was pure ockerina. However, I cannot count the number of middle class lefties who said things to me about her like “she’s a moron, listen to the way she talks.” That’s your upper middle class lefties for you: we love the downtrodden and oppressed, but only as long as we don’t have to see or hear from them.
And the voters from the suburbs are increasingly picking up on the idea that, these days, the ALP is more for the inner city types than it is for them. It can’t really help it: a political party must first and foremost respond to what its main supporter group wants. Hence the Voice referendum. Hence the incredible struggle the Albo Government has had in trying to find a comfortable position re the Middle East conflict: sure, they are being guided to some extent by the views of the Muslim constituents, but probably more so by the party’s membership in the inner city and leafy suburbs.
The party’s image with the outer suburban voters is not helped by things like Albo’s $4.3 million house and his Qantas upgrades and his son’s Chairman’s Lounge membership and etc, etc.
And a further problem is that Labor by no means has the chardonnay socialist set to itself: the Greens are providing fierce competition for Labor in the inner cities.
The big question is whether Labor can find a way of maintaining a balance in which it can address some of the concerns of the people in the outer suburbs (and the rural and regional towns), without pissing off the inner city types too much. Abortion is an issue that works quite well in this way. And, as we have seen in the Queensland election, addressing cost of living pressures provides an opportunity as well. But issues such as unlawul immigration, youth crime, reconciliation, anything that looks the least bit “woke”, & etc. are more difficult for Labor.
Pretty amazing that muzz and Albo are out saying the Greens have had lessons from the QLD result.
Yet there are no lessons in a 7% swing against Labor?
Labor are going to make Abortion an issue in the Federal election and people like Alex Antic, Jacinta Price and Barnaby Joyce are going to help them out.
Huge sleeper issue, imo, if the Campaign had gone another week, LNP wouldn’t win a majority.
@Jolly Jumbuck 10:01AM
I thought the children’s hospital was renamed due to a petition from the staff themselves. Something like 900+ of the staff signing a petition to rename the hospital they work at, because they don’t like working at a place named for a virulently (even for her time) homophobic racist? Phyllis Cilento was a groundbreaker in some ways, but like many idols, she has feet of clay when you look at her closely.
@meher baba: Labor can win those votes back, the next time some Coalition frontbencher publicly admits that their policy is to suppress wages – a la Matthias Cormann during the ATM years. They just have to be ready to punch the Coalition hard – running a long ad campaign replaying the quote, repeatedly raising it in Parliament, mentioning in interviews (where germane to the topic), etc.
Stop sitting back and expecting the CPG to be fair and insightful, because they’re neither. The CPG was never – never – Labor’s friend; these days, it’s little more than a professional association for oligarch propagandists & Coalition apparatchiks.
I’ve just seen Miles’ speech from last night. What a complete wanker.
I would be very surprised if abortion/reproductive rights were a dominant issue federally. I think Queensland is likely to be a bit of a sideshow federally, in that the ALP probably doesn’t see much potential to improve their position up here. The federal election is more going to be fought out in the outer suburbs and inner regional rings around Sydney and Melbourne. And the politics of abortion is very different in those states. Remember, it was the Coalition that decriminalised abortion and introduced public services in NSW.
It will be a topic. But nothing like for this election.
It looks like Cameron Dick will run for the ALP leadership – spoils of defeat.
The Wombat – thank you for the thorough explanation of why Mackay was such a disaster for Labor – those on the ground such as you usually have a far better idea than those of us who live in the capital cities.
Gosh, if Albo and Murray Watt think the main takeaway from the weekend was the poor showing for the Greens, then I really despair for federal Labor in 2025. It doesn’t help Labor’s chances federally in Qld that they keep preselecting totally dud candidates, to be brutal about it, and forcing Graham Perrett to resign from Moreton so they can fill a quota of the required number of female Labor candidates for the election – I shake my head in frustration at that one too.
Federally, they haven’t got Qld right since the halcyon days of the Rudd slide in 2007.
The Wombat
Modern politics from the establishment parties is more about their donors than service delivery for the people.
I think the LNP’s struggles to win Aspley, Springwood, and Mansfield are representation of their campaigns failure in Brisbane. These seats are traditional bell weather seats that have in past elections would have been called on the night when there was a change of government. There certainly is big divide for voter expectations between the cities and the regions.
The Labor Party through union groups like the SDA ( shoppies) are busily suppressing wages as it is and having a cosy relationship with the big retailers along the way. This is good reason for young people to be annoyed and fed up. Here is a union that needs to be disaffliated for doing very little for working people. Time Labor did something about them and their rotten views.
Fubar – you and I wouldn’t agree on much, but your opinion of Miles from last night, I totally concur with you on that one.
If they’re sensible up there, they’ll hand the leadership over to Cameron Dick – he showed last night on the ABC telecast that he’s up for the rebuilding and the fight to come.
Greens did not lose votes or percentage of vote, Labor did and Albanese is simply deluded if he thinks the Greens had a shocker.. put simply Labor did and they need to wake up fast.
Meher Baba
That’s your upper middle class lefties for you: we love the downtrodden and oppressed, but only as long as we don’t have to see or hear from them.
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We see this over the disability royal commission and the 7% unemployment rate for disabled people. Labor people try justifying it but if other groups had a 7% unemployment rate the same labor supporters would be outraged. Labor people have to start listening and stop seeing every criticism as coming from Murdoch.
Matt: “@meher baba: Labor can win those votes back, the next time some Coalition frontbencher publicly admits that their policy is to suppress wages – a la Matthias Cormann during the ATM years. They just have to be ready to punch the Coalition hard – running a long ad campaign replaying the quote, repeatedly raising it in Parliament, mentioning in interviews (where germane to the topic), etc.”
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I’m sorry, but I’m not sure about any of this at all. First of all, I would note that the Coalition won three elections in a row with Cormann in a senior role and then lost one after he had chooffed off to the OECD.
Secondly, I’m not sure that wage rises have ever been a huge vote-winner for Labor among swinging voters. Many of these voters are uneasy about the power of the trade unions in certain sectors, and are also inclined to accept the idea that substantial wage increases will fuel inflation down the track.
One of the things that appealed the most to swinging voters about Bob Hawke was that he was seen as someone who was prepared to go all in to moderate the wages demands of militant unions. The Accord was a manifestation of Hawke’s commitment in that regard, and paved the way for Labor to rule at the Federal level for longer than it has done before or since.
What can lose votes for the Coalition is when they are seen as trying to tilt the industrial relations system too far in favour of the employers. This what voters didn’t like about Workchoices. But my sense was that concerns about lower wages were not the main driving factor there, it was other things like security of employment, workplace conditions, safety, etc.
I’m far from convinced that it’s a good idea for Queensland Labor to replace a small “d” dick with a capital “D” one.
Remember, it was the Coalition that decriminalised abortion and introduced public services in NSW.
Yeah, that was years ago, and who cares anyway?
The Coalition has got white ants on it’s side, Peta Credlin and Amanda Stoker are 2, Abortion was what Annika Wells and Cameron Dick were trying to remind viewers about last night, and PK on Insiders this morning.
Sleeper issue, and not even under control of the Federal Government, but once the Coalition infighting starts Labor has the field to itself.
Plus, it’s a big issue in the Capitals, Liberals have got to win there.
edited
Workers do not like their wages going no where whilst company CEO’ wages are going up excessively, so it is okay to keep workers wages low but let the company bosses ones go up alot with big bonuses and share offers. When Albanese said he was going to increase the amount of tax the rich paid on superannuation holdings over a certain amount he was loved but since that time he has done little in regards to the wealthy and their perks and his vote has simply gone backwards since. Working people lost the 1500 dollar low income tax offset and have recieved a tax cut in exchange and increases in yearly minimum wages but this has happened anyway, whilst the big retailers and other major companies are earning mega profits and increased the prices of their goods.
Has Blocker commented on the QLD election yet? He’s the decider isnt he?
Given Fentiman’s comments this morning, it suggests he is considering leaving Miles as interim leader for a while.
Dick – he showed last night on the ABC telecast that he’s up for the rebuilding and the fight to come.
Speersy had to remind him the campaign was over and he kept trying to talk over Senator MacDonald.
He’s now the member for Logan Badlands seat Woodridge, succeeeding Machine pols Bill D’arcy and Mike Kaiser, among others, having been rejected in inner suburban Greenslopes in 2012.
Probably the best they’ve got, and it was a good election for Labor to lose, imo.
WB:
Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.
LNP are going to be on slim margins in many seats even if they pick up a few more.
Yeah hey guys just checking in again I’m doing fine I was right about the seat cornt around 30 to 35 for the labour partying around early 50s for the Liberal Party yes badthinker of the margins at the lnp got the seats aren’t that good so that’s why people say if liberals f up it’d be back to labour in the next four years
Good to hear from u Quentin. Sounds like you’ve got some good perspective today.
Lars thanks for that yeah I’m surprised of how some of the LnP seats they win a marginal so David has to be really careful not to do anything stupid that Queensland like you know like try to sell state own assets because that will be political suicide for a first-term government hell maybe even a second term because Queensland like our state own assets
Given that the LNP’s electoral success occurred basically outside Brisbane, would it be appropriate to assume that the National component of the LNP did much better than the Liberal component?
If so, would this have any relevance to the power relationship between National and Liberal at the federal level?
https://x.com/kossamaras/status/1850303100256719130, “loss of low income electorates”, including the observation some were held for a century …
Then again, in other ‘news’, The Shovel’s observation is that QLD is now observing daylight savings by turning the clock back two generations.
Always read; rarely comment. Wombat you are spot on.
50c fares demonstrated to regional people again that the Qld Labor government is nothing more than a government of Brisbane, the policy was toxic for the rest of the state that doesn’t have functioning public transport. We are a state of have’s and have not’s and it has accelerated under this government.
Secondly telling the considerably large list of towns where Crime has increased significantly that it has reduced “state-wide” and to essentially shut up again demonstrated an ineptitude that staggers the imagination. It only demonstrates again that effective policing occurs in the SEQ corner. Locally it is well known that police don’t come to break in’s anymore, you have to go to the police and wait in line to report it. The blatant attempts at hiding the reality have continued for years.
That said; I an not a LNP fan. I am just acknowledging that Labor has its head up its arse.
Has Max Chandler-Mather emerged to congratulate the Queensland Greens on their stellar performance yesterday?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/27/devastating-losses-in-regional-queensland-show-labor-is-increasingly-being-consigned-to-the-cities
“Greens did not lose votes or percentage of vote, Labor did and Albanese is simply deluded if he thinks the Greens had a shocker.. put simply Labor did and they need to wake up fast.”
@crispy wedges
Who cares about the Greens? They had two seats and it will likely be one seat. They will have as much influence as an independent.
I’ve never called the Greens extreme like some. But I never bought this narrative there coming to replace the Labor party either. And the election result prooves there not invincible like some would have you believe.
Labor would probably say “if we increased service delivery in regional towns they still wouldn’t vote for us anyway”.
Would they be right …?
One piece of good news for Labor this afternoon – the ABC is now calling Bundaberg a Labor retain. Tom Smith actually has increased his 9 vote margin from 2020, perhaps the only seat in Qld that shows a swing to Labor.
What Wombat had to say about Mackay sadly rings true for me, Labor has such a problem in regional Australia now, with a few exceptions like the one I just highlighted above.
The 50 cent train fares might have played well in Brisbane, but regional Qld has little or nothing in the way of public transport, it would have had no relevance in Mackay or Rockhampton or Townsville.
And the fact that Qld Labor now at best will only have 3 regional MPs doesn’t bode well for a thorough examination into why seats Labor had held for a very long time swung against them so savagely.
This patting yourselves on the backs because you saw off the Green advance in inner city Brisbane, and this somehow is something to celebrate? Really?
And that’s often the problem with the debate in here sometimes, this Labor vs Greens war I find so tiresome, and it misses the point and the bigger picture.
What a selective history of the seat of Woodridge above. I would like to note that Desley Scott, a truly likeable and kind individual, was member there for many years. It has not just been hacks. It would be nice to see more Logan people represent Logan seats, though.
Credit to Steven Miles for managing to save 10 or so seats in the last fortnight of the campaign. Credits to Tom Smith, Meaghan Scanlon, Mick DeBrenni, Corrine McMillan who should have been annihilated in the count by now but survive by being exceptional local members.
Where is all the numbers discussion anyway?
Labor knew they couldn’t win from a long way out, so to save the furniture they threw out some socialist policy in the seats where they could gain votes. It worked. They saved some furniture and held down the Greens vote. Mission accomplished.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/27/queensland-election-late-counting-3/comment-page-3/#comment-4391107
And in TAS, after the state election, progressives and centrists could have gotten together, counter a conservative Noalition, but instead the opp walked and let the gov come back in with JLN …
In the media since then, a bridge that doesn’t line up, probably because all that effort focused on a stadium near the heart of Hobart, forget quays or ferries.
Apparently the then leader of centrists was being promised preselection to federal parliament.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/27/queensland-election-late-counting-3/comment-page-3/#comment-4391085
Was this a state opp winning an election or a state gov losing an election? 🙁
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1850408064484356168, and probably blame Murdoch Infotainment? 🙂
Anyway …
I note from WB’s QLD’s results page with more than 2/3s counted that the Greens are slightly up on PV, former state gov is down 7% to 8% on PV, former opp/ incoming state gov is up on PV by more than 6%, … and then there’s KAP and an IND.
crispy wedges says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 2:45 pm
The Labor Party through union groups like the SDA ( shoppies) are busily suppressing wages as it is and having a cosy relationship with the big retailers along the way. This is good reason for young people to be annoyed and fed up. Here is a union that needs to be disaffliated for doing very little for working people. Time Labor did something about them and their rotten views.’
=========================
The Coalition spent a decade, as a matter of policy, suppressing wages. And they were good at it. And the saps are lining up for more!
Waters, yet another Greens extremist, thought that everyone’s wage should go up by 40%.
Labor HAS increased the lowest paid workers wages by 27% in just two years.
Labor HAS closed the gender pay gap significantly.
Before the election the Greens were talking about ten seats that they were going to take of Labor. The knocked on 120,000 doors, yada, yada, yada…
After the election… not so much.
The Queensland Greens continue to let the Greens down with less than 10% of the vote.
Maybe if they started targetting extreme right seats instead of Labor seats they might do better?
The only thing I learnt from this election is that Antony Green is still too biased toward Labor. His list of “in doubt” seats still has 4-5 which Labor have 0 chance of winning yet he is still moving declared Labor seats to “in doubt” because he called them too early.
He needs to do better or retire.
Hello DS, I don’t join into the greens thing but I must say as a sober observer that the greens strategy needs some tweaking. For example they attacked Miles in their ads whereas I didn’t see one Labor ad that attacked the greens. If the greens could see the wood for the trees and stop trying to be like one of those vines that kill the fig trees i’d appreciate them a lot more. They can’t see who the real enemy is and i find it frustrating. In fact Berkman is blaming Labor for the swing against him because labor should have tried to protect him despite his attacks on Labor -bizarre
Banquou
“Brisbane Times had the question from i think the newspoll and it was just the usual “if an election were held today” one, so might be seeing a bit of buyers remorse before the products even delivered.”
Thanks, but surely that’s the question they have to ask? That doesn’t mean it wasn’t taking responses from those who had already voted.
Black Bulldog 7.56
Maybe I was overstating the difference between late polling and results a bit, but thanks for saying I am “poll illiterate” and “know nothing”- maybe a) be polite; and b) consider your own facts before responding?
In addition to admitting that the Newspoll was 2PP was out, in the end probably by about 4%(and are they really that ‘primitive’ that they only use previous voting patterns not voters’ own responses on 2PP?), you completely overlook the UComms poll continuing the tightening trend with its 51-49% poll and the plethora of anecdotal information (which I appreciate is never going to be that reliable of course).
And I’m well aware that the 1st prefs match very closely to Newspoll’s poll.
Gero 9.32am
No she didn’t say that, that’s twisting it badly. She got asked – then pushed and pushed – and kept the team line well, in fact. She just showed she was more open-minded to nuclear if the federal gov ever adopted it as policy, but in addition to her team’s position made plain that her position was not ideological but whatever would help bring bills down.
Any other suggestion is opposition spin, I watched the whole exchange.
Arky
“You think Greens primary votes shift to Labor primary votes, which does absolutely nothing to help save any seats, to help Labor out in a wipeout?”
It might not save anything for Labor, but I think one can see the simple logic in it for an ordinary voter. Just playing devil’s advocate here, I’m very definitely not a Green 🙂
Democracy Sausage @ #134 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 5:22 pm
The problem is the Greens vs Labor war, carried on incessantly by the Greens, to the benefit of the crypto-fascists, and with no benefit to the Greens at all.
BTsays with Newspoll the key is they got the primaries close. Calculating preferences will always have higher challenge. No doubt William will give us some analysis on this after it’s all been finalized. Sorry William if I am assuming incorrectly.
Re the uComm Poll. I did some research and according to an ABC article some years ago uComm was owned by ACTU and CFMEU. Not sure if that is the case but if true their independence may be in question.
There seemed to be some misinformation floating about late in the campaign eg that supposed analysis of Townsville seats.
The Coalition was always going to be competitive with a primary vote with a 4 in front.
BTSays
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 9:02 am
I personally know multiple people who do this, so anecdotal, but surely reasonable to think that I don’t personally know 100% of voters that behave like this.
Edit:
Seconded
Mavis 1.51pm
LOL