Queensland election: late counting

The late mail on the Queensland state election, at which the precise size of a modest LNP majority remains at issue.

Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.

Friday evening

Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.

The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.

That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.

Thursday evening

Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.

Wednesday evening

What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.

Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.

The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.

Tuesday evening

Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.

My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.

In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.

Sunday evening

Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.

That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:

Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.

Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.

Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.

Saturday evening

After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.

Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.

It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.

This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

550 comments on “Queensland election: late counting”

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  1. davidwh @ #499 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:53 pm

    Thanks Democracy Sausage.

    Kirsdarke I think it was down to the controversy she was involved in.

    The way the LNP and Murdoch press carried on about her, it was though the audacity of Jackie Trad breathing would be a controversy.

    It’s always the same with these types. Back in 2020 they were like “Well, we lost 5 seats, but at least we got rid of Trad.” Same in 2022 when the LNP/Sky News cohort were like “Well, we lost the election, but at least we got rid of Kristina Kenneally.”

    There’s just something about uppity leftist women that really makes the red mist seem to descend with these people.

  2. Oliver Sutton:
    Oh, on which planet was that?
    It hasn’t been safe to go for a walk after dusk in Rocky for 20 years.
    Wouldn’t be surprised if Gladstone, Mackay and Townsville are similar.

  3. Logan isn’t called by William or this website. it says ALP AHEAD.

    The computer is obviously glitching, it is mathmatically impossible for the LNP to win it unless they win like 95% of remaining votes which just won’t happen.

    could you change Logan to ALP Retain Wiliiam?

    LNP candidate has conceded defeat days ago.

  4. “South Brisbane looks like it’s very much in the doubtful category now, Antony Green is estimating final first preference vote shares of 32.2% for Labor and 31.4% for the LNP. One Nation’s 3.3% primary is reported to split 72.4% to the LNP in South Brisbane so when they are excluded, based on these figures you end up with 33.7% LNP with Labor on a maximum of 33.1% of the 3PP vote. ”

    I know there’s been a couple of small batches of votes counted since this post and that 72.4% is expected to be above the actual flow to LNP from ON, but IF the above scenario actually happened then simple Maths tells us that LNP would be no. 1 on 1pp with Lab and Green on dead heat fighting it out for the right to be in the final count.

    So, a 3pp vote split into thirds, pretty much.

  5. PINE RIVERS

    “Wednesday evening

    What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6.”

    Someone posted that ABC have since called this for Labor – is this definitely beyond doubt now? What are the actual vote updates since Weds evening? / How many postals left? etc.

  6. There may be as many as 1000 postals still to come from Pine Rivers, but the ones counted today weren’t terribly good for the LNP, and the absents that were added were very poor for them, which probably explains the ABC’s call.

    One Nation’s 3.3% primary is reported to split 72.4% to the LNP in South Brisbane so when they are excluded, based on these figures you end up with 33.7% LNP with Labor on a maximum of 33.1% of the 3PP vote.

    The 72.4% is the share of One Nation votes that were going to Labor ahead of the Greens in the indicative two-candidate preferred candidate count. What they are doing when split three ways is anyone’s guess at this stage. It would be surprising if they were going heavily enough to the LNP to edge out Labor, but it’s not impossible.

  7. Badthinker: There are numerous cities and towns where residents need to be cautious after dark. A few years ago, Laws had to be changed in relation to late night drinking because of multiple assaults after 2am. The legislation stopped inebriated patrons removed from pubs and clubs entering another establishment. The Hotels Association opposed the changes but the Labor Govt presented some horrendous stats.
    Go to any hospital emergency dept every Friday and Saturday night, it’s an eye opener after 10pm.
    It would be great if it was like the good old days of hotel 10pm closing, Sunday 2 hour sessions, 6 o’clock swill etc etc. Alcohol consumption and violence happens. Unfortunately you also see incidents on the sidelines of kids football games.

  8. Kirsdarke, many on the ALP side took solace in losing elections to see ideological warrior Sophie fall short and Toned Abs get his marching orders. I certainly did

  9. Good article in the guardian. Alot has been made about the abortion issue as keeping seats for Labor in Brisbane. But there is not alot of confidence that the LNP can be a centre right government unlike there Brisbane city council counterparts after Newman. Amanda Stoker isn’t likely to be offered a cabinet post it’s been reported. Amanda Cooper probably would of been but the longer Aspley count drags on the more likely the LNP will settle with their front bench without her.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/31/queensland-lnp-david-crisafulli-party-cabinet

  10. So probably 35 seats for Labor at best, still a defeat, but it could have been so much worse, the campaign of Miles over the last 2 weeks of the campaign combined with the abortion issue rearing its ugly head might have saved some Labor seats from the LNP and the Greens.

  11. Is it possible that Bart Mellish could still sneak in in Aspley? He seems to be catching the LNP total but not sure if enough vote left to catch up.

  12. One Nation voters and Pauline Hanson have 0 Logic preferencing the LNP ahead of Labor in South Brisbane. The LNP have no chance in South Brisbane and those PHON voters could ensure a Green victory for communist Amy MacMahon.

    One Nation voters should have tactically preferenced Labor over the LNP to stop a Green victory, because the Greens are far worse than Labor.

  13. Definitely times when I thought the ALP could be down to mid twenties, but it was always difficult to know what was happening in the outer metro ring around Brisbane.

    Nevertheless, I think the ALP might be underestimating how bad this result is for them. 2012 as I understand it was a pretty uniform Queensland wide swing in response to a government that was repeatedly embarrassed with what was simply just bad governance. This is much more regional phenomenon, more in line with general trends we’ve seen across Australia and the western world in recent years, the city going red then green, the country going blue. The experience is that once those regional areas go blue, it’s hard to get them back in the red column. I think the ALP is unlikely to see much improvement in “the coasts” and regional Queensland for some time, I think they are likely lost for a decade or more providing the LNP doesn’t do anything dumb (which is definitely a possibility). Obviously, the problem for the ALP is that inner metropolitan Brisbane makes up a much smaller proportion of the population and seats than the other states.

    The way back for the ALP will be outer metro.

  14. The Wombat, what if the LNP turn around abortion and remove 50c fares, allow nuclear power etc.

    They will lose all their seats in SEQLD except for like 10 seats. Labor will regain Caloundra, Aspley, Capalaba, Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Redlands, Cook, Rockampton, Nicklin, Maryborough (If Saunders Re-Contests)

    And ALP will gain Glass House, Everton, Clayfield, Coomera, Theodore, Moggil (To The Greens), And a few more seats I didn’t mention.

    This will easily reverse the LNP majority and find Labor with a majority but not a landslide unless they can get back the Townsville seats, Mackay, etc. (Unless LNP fail on Youth Crime)

    Miles will also need to resign to give ALP hope of winning in 2028.

    If LNP are popular and don’t ban abortion, don’t reverse the 50c fares (or at least make them expensive like they were prior to this year), Don’t backstab the public and bow down to the federal coalition on nuclear power (either 2025 or 2028) and as long as they don’t sack tons of public servants. Then the LNP should be able to hold most if not all the seats I mentioned.

  15. The Wombat : that’s a very dark future for the ALP however what if the LNP fails to get on top of ” youth crime” and statistics won’t cut it if these “youths” in FNQ are still doing their thing in four years and adult time ain’t making an impact. What happens when people in Rocky get pee’ed off about Olympic expenditure and they still drive on the old goat track. Government is hard work especially satisfying the regions. You might be happy in three or four years time but maybe Labor might also start looking better in hindsight than they do right now.

  16. Labor used to get a lot of free publicity in the regional newspapers, iirc, Keith Wright was a chalkie, only been in Rocky less than 2 years, Rockhampton Morning Bulletin puffed him up like he was the 2nd Coming, won in ’69, Labor hadn’t won Rocky since 1956.
    —————————————–
    No one under 70 reads newspapers anymore, Murdoch bought up the regional dailies in Qld and went online or shut them down, shut the suburban papers years ago.
    So, how do potential Labor MPs establish a local profile?
    One way has been to get funding for some Youth Initiative and get exposure that way, but it still relies on Media.
    Crisafulli needs to crack down on this, why pay Labor operatives out of the public purse to bring you down?

  17. Daniel, abortion won’t be banned by any party. There are always a few people with issues with it, but the party just needs to make them insignificant when it matters.
    50 cent fares might work green seats, but in the outer suburbs of Brisbane and basically everywhere else no-one could give a fuck.
    There are too many public servants that’s a fact, how you deal with it and don’t wipe out some seats I don’t know.
    Nuclear power will happen, just a question of when. I don’t expect the Greens to emerge from the Stone Age but Labor might sometime.

  18. Aspley update – the Liberal lead has fallen to 98 votes, not sure how much more they might have to count there.

  19. I live In Aspley electorate and see LNP lead is eroding day by day. Bart Melish will need about 64 percentage preferences to flow his way to take the lead at the current numbers. In 2020 68% preferences flowed his way. Any deep analysis from the think tank which way the result will fall.

  20. Question for the think tank. In Australia the Government is sworn in before the election commission declare results. Queensland Premier was sworn on Monday and cabinet was sworn in today. How constitutionally it is right. Isn’t the caretaker government should continue until the results are declared by the election commission. In USA president is elected in early November and takes the office after nearly two and half months.

  21. About Aspley,

    That 98 vote LNP lead is only a 2PP estimate, it might be more or less.

    Presumably not many more votes to come in as 92.04% already counted. Final figure in 2020 was 90.60% but may have been down a bit (‘Covid election’).

  22. Hi Parry,
    Things move quicker under the “Westminster system”.
    It was clear that the LNP had won the election late on Saturday night. The final seat count will be what it will be. There is no need to delay the incoming Premier, whilst the Electoral commission works out who has won the seat of South Brisbane or Aspley, as examples.
    If the final seat tally was closer, then yes everything would be on hold until the Electoral Commission had determined a result. (This happenned in the 1999 Victorian State election).
    The finance bills are passed by the outgoing gov’t before the writs are issued, and gov’t finance extends well past the date the Electoral commission needs to make a final determination.
    In Qld – The postals conclude at 5PM Tues 5-Nov.
    On/after Weds 6-Nov: the final tallies are calculated, and the candidates are then distributed in the seats which require distribution.

  23. Parliament can’t sit until the election declared.
    Is what happened in 2013, Fairfax wasn’t called until late November, Parly sat early Dec.
    In U.S., Term is House 2 years, Senate 6, Pres. 4.
    Even when Presidential Inauguration Day was late March the Term still lasted 4 years.

  24. True & correct badthinker, and parliament is scheduled to sit on Tues 26-Nov.
    The count will be well and truly sorted by then.
    However, once a Minister is sworn in, they can start making decisions. You’ve seen the action in Brisbane today – the Truth Commission was axed at around 10.00am.
    Parliament can of course reverse this in 3 weeks time. They won’t, and the Premier knows he has the numbers in Parliament to ensure this doesn’t happen.

  25. Fargo61
    ALP pickup in South Brisbane. Your thoughts.
    Neither AG or KB have called it.
    Me thinks the ALP have got it.
    Another 684 votes dropped today….as follows:
    * GRN 225 primaries,
    * ALP 227
    * LNP 198
    * PHON 34

  26. Ec seems to be declaring seats where the winner has polled an absolute majority. I guess there were not enough votes left to turn round the vote

  27. Badthinker,
    The puzzle in South Brisbane is how the LNP preferences will actually flow.
    Up thread, AG & KB provided some figures that the flow is around 75% ALP to 25% Grn.
    This is enough to send Amy MacMahon down to Centrelink.
    In the recent NT election, a very strange thing occurred where the CLP preferences split only 52-48 in favour of Labor. This was enough to elect the Green and remove the Chief Minister from parliament.
    I never underestimate LNP voters, as they tend to vote as a flock. Clearly in the NT they had the Chief Minister lined up, and they delivered her a beauty (ie: she lost her seat because of them). In the 2010 Melbourne Fed election, they smashed an ALP candidate called Cath Bowtell. They (the LNP voters) tend to vote like a pack of hyena’s. They are not to be underestimated (ie: they are very strategic)
    Anyway, as it stands yesterday, AG has reported that 75-76% of LNP votes will flow to the ALP candidate in South brisbane off the back of the LNP distribution.
    I think the seat will therefore go ALP.

  28. The geographic structure of Queensland means there are sizable populations in all the provincial cities.
    To assume Labor has lost the seats the lnp won for ever is not true.
    As late as 2009 Labor won a Towoomba seat.
    2020 Labor won Hervey Bay and Bundaberg. Which roughly make up Hinkler. Maybe this means Labor needs to choose very good candidates which is a good thing.

  29. My prediction is Labor hang on in Aspley. Feel pretty good about it to be honest, maybe it’s just vibes but it’s the way things seem to be heading. Credit to local campaigning to hang on if they do, bookies had them a pretty long shot

  30. In the 2010 Melbourne Fed election, they smashed an ALP candidate called Cath Bowtell.

    Bowtell was a divisive figure in Union politics at the time, as I recall.
    There wasn’t unanimity on the Liberal side to preference against her either.
    As it turns out, Labor had run it’s race in Melbourne, after 104 years.

  31. Bruce MS, I’ve said the same, I hope Mellish gets up as he is a talented MP. It’s getting very close as the count continues. This could be like Bundaberg where a surprise result occurs. LNP has won and would be happy with the margin. ALP will keep them from carrying on in a silly way which I’m sure they’ll appreciate.

  32. nadia88

    There was an indicative 2PP count on election night that showed Lib preferences splitting 75/25 to ALP in South Brisbane. All of the indicative 2PP counts for all seats have been removed from the ECQ site. No idea why they do tjis.

    Based on the assumption that ONP preferences ate splitting 65/25/15 to LIB/ALP/GRN (based on scrutineering reports) then Labor will be about 206 votes ahead of the LNP when ONP preferences are distributed.

  33. Thanks 3z.

    Yes, I was aware of the 75-25 split. AG had mentioned it.
    As for the indicative 2PP counts – not too sure why that got removed. Another poster mentioned it shortly after the figures were taken off the ECQ site and it’s a bit of a puzzle.

    I agree, Labor should be ahead of the LNP at 3PP stage, so yes this seat should probably return to the ALP as a gain.

  34. While LNP hasn’t preferenced Green again, [imo] they’ve ran dead in SB to elect an ALP member.
    I can’t see the point in this, they’d blasted Labor out of the Inner City on the Southside in 2020, now they bring them back.
    Why?

  35. To understand the lnp decisions is beyond me.
    The only thing that makes sense is to keep turning over the mp for south Brisbane every 4 years. Bur this will discredit the lnp and eventually an mp will build up a personal vote to an absolute majority and make lnp preferences irrelevant.

  36. The [stated]rationale was to get Trad out of Parliament.
    Okay, mission accomplished, LNP lost some supporters by doing that.
    But, it’s as if they’ve said:
    “Sorry about that, ALP, here’s your Seat back”
    instead of playing a straight bat and trying to win the seat and let Labor elect a Green.
    Perhaps there was a quid pro quo and Labor didn’t run much of a campaign in another LNP held seat, but I rate the inner city seats as more important because of high visibility.

  37. P1, The Oz:
    rabid, divisive, how The Greens lost heartland
    a registered 3rd party org known as Qld Jewish Collective letterboxed in SB and Maiwar [Mt. Cootha].
    It’s sole issue is contra the Greens stand on Israel/Palestine.
    Don’t see how that intervention could help the Liberal vote.

  38. The ABC’s current estimate for Aspley is based on election night preference splits for polling day, pre-poll and counted postal votes. The flows were

    Greens 82.4% to Labor, 17.6% LNP
    Family First 27.0% / 73.0%
    One Nation 39.6% / 60.4%

    No guarantee those flows haven’t shifted as the count has updated. We’ll know once the preference distribution is done. It will get underway on Wednesday.

    The ECQ has always removed indicative preference counts a few days after the election. In 2020 they continued with preference counts in a few very close seats, but how those numbers were reported in Bundaberg and Nicklin became less reliable as the count progressed. This time the ECQ chose to stick with its legal requirements, a detailed first preference count followed by a formal distribution of preferences.

    Because the ECQ publishes both first (unofficial) and check count (official) results on its site and in the media feed, trying to decide which set of published totals to use can be complex. The ABC uses the check count if published, but it means that an updating count centre like Absent or Postal votes can have an update of the first count which won’t be picked up until it is merged with the check count total.

  39. Obviously a figure using abc or here is a projection which does not take into account variations in types of votes or preference flows so a lead of 98 etc could be more or less
    I remember the count for Frome sa when Mr Brock won. . The libs were going to win but did not . Also margins like this could end up in the court of disputed returns.

  40. “However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. ”

    But will they though? They have confounded already in places. I also pointed out election night that with the swing to Labor late in the campaign, late filled-in and posted votes will surely act the same way and be more favourable to Labor than postal votes received earlier.

    If there’s an inherent bias against Labor in postal votes vs. ‘in person’ votes full stop, of course, then they may still set Labor back somewhat – is this the situation? (sorry my knowledge of this is not where it should be, still getting to know the detail of Australian elections)

  41. Yes DC : it would be a big fillip for Labor if Mellish gets up. He is a very presentable and personable guy. It’s incredible that the ALP hung onto just about all of its former ministers. I think Miles really came into his own in this campaign and he should be given at least a couple years as opposition leader. If in two years time he is making no impression and Crisifulli is flying high then it might be time to look at other options. But I’m looking at both lineups and feeling pretty positive as an ALP supporter.

  42. Postals will drop away for LNP, but it would be huge if if they didn’t have an absolute majority just counting the final week’s dated envelopes alone, imo.
    So, so long as Cooper is ahead now, she should win.

  43. Murdoch press will be after Crisafulli.
    Broken promise already, according to The Oz today.
    ————————————–
    He’d promised no changes from the Shadow Ministry, now swapped ex nurse Ros Bates for A/G to be Nicholls in Health, gave A/G to Frecklinton.
    Pointer that he’s not picking any fights with the judiciary and expects the Union dominated Hospitals sector to be where all the trouble is, or,
    Youth Crime is a non Brisbane issue, so he’s let a National Party MLA 0wn the solution.
    National Party also got Police.

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