Queensland election live

Live coverage of the Queensland election results.

Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.

11:47pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation that was based on figures about 35 minutes ago.  The LNP is now up to a 53-35 seat lead over Labor and is winning the 2PP by 53.8-46.2.  This election wasn’t close.

10:04pm With 34% statewide counted, the LNP has won or is leading in 50seats, Labor in 38, the Katters in three, Greens in one and an independent in one.  The PB’s 2PP estimate is 52.7-47.3 to the LNP.  It’s clear now that the LNP will win the election, as the swing to it rises on pre-poll and postal votes.

9:52pm In Maiwar, the Greens will need Labor preferences to beat the LNP, and once again pre-poll votes are better for the LNP in swing terms than election day votes.

9:43pm With 30% counted statewide, the PB has the LNP leading by 47 seats to 41, just enough for an LNP majority. The KAP has three, the Greens one and an independent one. The PB now has a 2PP estimate, which is 52.5-47.5 to the LNP. The ABC is at 51.9-48.1 to LNP.

9:38pm In Macalister, both postals and pre-polls counted so far suggest a stronger swing to the LNP than from election day votes.

9:30pm In Everton, however, the pre-poll booths are better for the LNP in swing terms than the election day booths in that seat.

9:21pm In Cook, the first pre-poll booth is better for Labor in swing terms than the election day booths counted so far in that seat.

9:14pm The ABC has fixed its results issue. With 25.3% counted statewide, the LNP leads the ABC’s 2PP estimate by 51.7-48.3. There are still no results from Hervey Bay.

9:06pm Actually something’s gone wrong with the ABC’s results, as they’ve now retreated to 19.5% counted, while PB is up to 23% counted.

9:02pm With 20.4% counted, the ABC has the LNP leading the 2PP by 51.7-48.3. The PB has the LNP ahead in 45 seats to 42 for Labor with three Katters, one Green and one independent.

8:47pm William has posted The Poll Bludger results. With 19% counted, the LNP is leading or has won 46 seats, Labor 41, Katter three, the Greens one and independents one. There’s no two-party estimate on these results available yet.

8:32pm It looks as if Labor will regain Ipswich West, which they lost at a by-election early this year. Labor leads by 55-45 with 21% counted.

8:27pm With 14% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP. The seats won are currently tied at 32 each between Labor and the LNP, with two for Katter. Remember these are election day votes, and pre-poll and postals are likely to be better for the LNP.

8:10pm With 8.5% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.6-48.4 to LNP, with the LNP on 26 seats, Labor on 18, Katter two and independents one. There are 93 total seats, and it will take 47 to win a majority.

7:57pm With 3% counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP, with the LNP so far winning 11 seats to 3 for Labor.

7:51pm With 2% counted, the ABC’s two-party estimate is 52.0-48.0 to the LNP. These votes would be election day votes, and pre-poll and postals will likely be better for the LNP.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

William Bowe is working for Channel 9, so I’ll be giving live commentary on the Queensland results. Polls close at 7pm AEDT (6pm in Queensland). William will hopefully add a live results link to the top of this post. I will need to do an article for The Conversation tonight.

There were two late polls: a Newspoll reported in the previous post gave the LNP a 52.5-47.5 lead, from primary votes of 42% LNP, 33% Labor, 11% Greens, 8% One Nation and 6% for all Others.

The ABC reported that a uComms poll conducted Thursday from a sample of 3,651 using robopolling, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead. Kevin Bonham has primary votes from this poll, which was not commissioned by anyone. The primary votes are 39.3% LNP, 33.6% Labor, 12.9% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.9% KAP and 3.5% others.

505 comments on “Queensland election live”

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  1. Queenslanders have screwed themselves. An LNP government is a one-way ticket to Hades. I don’t know what they think they will get out of it or what Leftie horrors they will avoid, but they will get a taste of consequence.

    I don’t live there, so I can park that in the file marked, ‘Oh well, too bad, but it’s their picnic after all.’

    Condolences to any sensible Qld left-wingers who have to live through it, but we all get our turn when the voters in the majority lose their heads.

  2. Quentin Rountree @ #445 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 12:38 am

    There is no politician, party, or person worth that. I believe you are more worthy than you give yourself credit for, and you have contributions to make.
    Call a Helpline if you feel overwhelmed or in despair, please.
    regards
    Puffy.

  3. ‘Quentin Rountree says:
    Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 12:38 am

    You guys make me feel like I want to kill myself like holy s*** now I’m just in a mood I was like oh well he’s Labor didn’t go down but you guys acting like like it’s a labor Wipeout didn’t lost now you guys acting like they down to 10 ten I’m just you guys make me feel miserable
    …’
    ========
    Quentin, please look after yourself. Posts on Bludger are quite often robust but they are also a bit tongue in cheek with a bit of argy bargy thrown in. They are definitely not worth serious stress in your life. And they are one hundred per cent not worth killing yourself for. Changes in government happen and if we believe in democracy and we support the losing side we just have to go with the democratic flow. Like you, I don’t like what has happened at all. But there it is. 55% of Queenslanders wanted a change and they are getting it. I suggest that you might want to find someone that you can talk things through with. Do take care!

  4. The discussion re Quentin shows both the best and worst of this blog. There was lots of genuine care for his welfare.
    The worst is the continuous turf wars green alp. People should argue their case on issues as best they can but not resort to any personal criticism of any other poster… ” play the ball nor the man”
    I hope I have not engaged in what I criticise here.

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