Newspoll: 52.5-47.5 to LNP in Queensland

Newspoll ends the campaign with Labor’s strongest poll result of recent memory, potentially putting a formerly ascendant LNP in minority government territory.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll adds more weight to the impression of a Labor recovery in Queensland, cutting the LNP’s two-party lead to 52.5-47.5 from the 55-45 the pollster recorded a month ago. The LNP primary vote has nonetheless held steady at 42%, with Labor’s three point gain to 33% drawn from a one-point drop for the Greens to 11% and a two-point drop from others to 6% (possibly influenced by a changing in response options after candidate details became available), while One Nation is steady on 8%. Steven Miles is up four on approval to 45% and down three on disapproval to 48%, and now leads David Crisafulli 45-42 as preferred premier after trailing 46-39 in the last poll. Crisafulli is down six on approval to 43% and up nine on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted last Friday through to yesterday from a sample of 1151.

Some further recent horse-race calling:

• The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences. However, it also suggests Stephen Andrew, who has defected to Katter’s Australian Party from One Nation, will struggle in his seat of Mirani to hold off the LNP, whom he trails 40.8% to 21.4%, with Labor on 18.7% and One Nation on 16.5%. It also suggests independent Sandy Nelson will rely on preferences to hold out against an LNP surge in Noosa, trailing 42.0% to 36.9% on the primary vote with Labor on 9.1%.

• On Wednesday, Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail suggested the Labor slump in Townsville may have prompted Rob Katter’s backdown on introducing a bill to wind back liberalised abortion laws, which has caused such grief for the LNP during the campaign. The party’s high hopes for Mundingburra in particular stood to be jeopardised by a conservative line on abortion, given Townsville’s youthful demographic profile. Elsewhere in the Courier-Mail, Madura McCormack reported Labor’s Townsville collapse was confirmed by “sources across all three parties”.

• Former Labor state secretary Cameron Milner, now a lobbyist with a side hustle criticising the party from the right for News Corp, also reckons Katter’s Australian Party “looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave”, since here too Labor is set to drop to third. Milner also goes so far as to rate that Keppel “has already elected James Ashby” of One Nation. So far as Labor losses to the LNP are concerned, Milner says the Labor casualty list will certainly include Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowa, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra and Pumicestone, likely to be joined by Aspley, Mansfield and Redcliffe, with several more besides listed as possibilities.

Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail further reported Labor’s inner urban recovery meant the Greens had “quietly whittled down to four” its list of target seats from an initial seven, leaving McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller as the seats it hopes to add to its existing complement of Maiwar and South Brisbane. “Labor hardheads” go so far as to say “the Greens will crash on election night”, leaving Grace Grace and Jonty Bush intact in McConnel and Cooper. Miller also “isn’t in doubt”, though nothing specifically was said of Greenslopes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

283 comments on “Newspoll: 52.5-47.5 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Jolly
    Federal Liberal party and National party are so clueless and dearth in talent, they selected Liberal party leader and National party leader from QLD LNP.
    You may say they caucus in different parties at federal level. Maybe, but they were elected on QLD LNP ticket.
    And if Dutton and Littleproud are the talents that federal Liberal and National parties can showcase, then god help this country.

    And another poster with monicker Socrates is also an Engineer.

  2. Who gave away Billions of dollars to businesses like Harvey Norman even when they don’t need it without accountability? Morrison LNP government.

    Fact check:
    Wrong.
    Harvey Norman employ a lot of casuals in store.
    Most of those, if not all, would’ve been stood down without JobKeeper.
    —————————————————–
    You’re an engineer with multiple degrees, so I guess you were alright whatever happened, but Morrison saved a recession with his fiscal management helping the casual workforce out during Covid, at the expense of triggering inflation and an interest rate rise which helped tip him out in 2022.

  3. Blackburnpseph at 3:16 pm
    Are prepolls being counted tonight?
    Yes, accordi ng to ECQ website.

    And do we know what the final percentage of prepolls is?
    Was told at the booth today that 50% of enrolled voters had cast a vote in the 10 days leading up to Polling Day.
    That includes Postal Votes.
    Given that turnout won’t be 100%, most had already made up their minds.

  4. Indeed Miles has likeability because he comes across as a normal human. The other bloke is fully dodgy and as shifty as a used car salesman: “Only $999.99 down and 99 monthly payments of only $999.90 for this BEAUTIFUL* automobile”
    (* may not be beautifulli, or registered, or an automobile)

  5. @davidwh Correction – early voting attendance was at 44% of total enrolled voters at the end of the early voting period. 18.8% of total enrolled voters applied for a postal ballot. So far about half of these postal votes have been received by ECQ – representing 9.19% of total enrolments.

    If we generously expect turnout to be 90% of total enrolled voters, we should expect around 37% of total enrolled voters to vote today on election day. This turnout % would also mean that about 41% of total votes will be from election day, and about 59% was from early vote & postal.

    To reiterate, 53.2% – 62.8% (depending how many postals are actually returned) of total enrolled voters that voted early either by early voting centre or postal vote. This equates to around 59% of the total vote (assuming ~90% turnout).

  6. This last week has certainly been more optimistic as an ALP supporter. The polls have narrowed and it no longer looks like a wipeout. I remember banter with Nadia earlier in the year where she thought they get 8 – 12 seats I was starting to believe her!!! So if the ALP gets more than 30 seats I will be relieved, anything on top of that will be a bonus. I’m resigned to four years of LNP rule but still hopeful. It would have been nice for the media to have gotten a bit more detail from them as it will be a jump into the dark. But hopefully this time a muscular opposition will keep them from going too extreme.

  7. LNP aren’t going extreme, i’d be very surprised if they sacked even one D/G, let alone repealed Legislation.
    Crisafulli is even committing to the 50c fares, a slap in the face to everyone outside the cities.
    Campbell Newman was a Trump, promised the world, did the opposite.
    It was a wasted opportunity, particularly for the next generation of Liberal leaders and Ministers washed away in the 2015 defeat.

  8. Good luck Queensland comrades. In all likelihood Miles has at least saved the furniture and ensured a Crisafulli government knows it has to tread carefully and can’t go buckwild with conservative culture wars on you. And who knows, maybe a mother of all boilovers.

  9. ‘Badthinker says:
    Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 5:01 pm

    LNP aren’t going extreme….’
    =====================
    The Christian zealots are locked and loaded to take control over women’s bodies. They have a mandate from Yahweh, Allah, God… whatevs…

  10. @Boerwar
    The Christian zealots are locked and loaded to take control over women’s bodies. They have a mandate from Yahweh, Allah, God… whatevs…
    Sure, plus the guy with the elephants head and 8 arms, the snake god, Manitou, the Rainbow Serpent and Zoroaster.
    ————————————————-
    They won’t have the numbers unless
    Labor votes for Katter’s motion too.
    Which wouldn’t surprise me, at all.

  11. If Labor win or there is a hung parliament Crisafulli will end up as a figure of derision on the Right. Sky News will be spitting chips!

  12. Fact check:
    Wrong.
    Harvey Norman employ a lot of casuals in store.
    Most of those, if not all, would’ve been stood down without JobKeeper.

    @Badthinker

    Harvey Norman received 22 million from JobKeeper and wasn’t needed or entitled to it when announced a profit before tax of $1.183bn. It was reported he paid 6 million back, don’t know if paid the rest of it. But the Morrison government didn’t enforce paying it back. Frankly that is quite disgusting considering they turned screws on people who were on welfare with Robodebt.

  13. ‘The Banana Republic says:
    Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 5:15 pm

    I don’t think Crisafulli will have a honeymoon polling period with how damaging this campaign has been for him’
    ================
    He has to get married first.

  14. 1Blackburnpseph – From Antony Green’s blog…

    “The final early voting total is 1,620,434 or 44.0% of enrolment. This is up from 38.2% of enrolment in 2020.
    Around three-quarters of pre-poll votes will be counted tonight. All within district early votes are counted. Early votes cast outside of a voter’s home district will be counted as Absent Early votes next week and make up around a quarter of all Early votes.
    A total of 692,180 postal vote applications were processed and postal vote packs dispatched. This is well down from the 905,806 postal votes dispatched in 2020. As a percentage of enrolment, postal vote numbers are down from 26.8% of enrolment to 18.8%”…

  15. Badthinker

    “ LNP aren’t going extreme, i’d be very surprised if they sacked even one D/G, let alone repealed Legislation.”

    I’ll believe that when I see the first LNP budget if they win power. Last time Newman sacked over 12,000 public servants simply by cutting the departmental budgets that paid their wages. No enabling legislation was needed. If Crisafulli gets an outright majority he could easily do the same.

  16. Might be closer than we think

    Exit poll shockwaves: Labor surges, election too close to call
    An exclusive Courier-Mail exit poll of 2000 voters across 10 crucial seats reveals Labor and the LNP are neck and neck as voting closes in the 2024 Queensland election.

    I placed a bet if it gets up ……. The winnings are for poll bludger

  17. CM exit poll results for those without access:

    “The Courier-Mail polled 2000 voters as they cast their ballots at a cross-section of electorates today, with the final tally revealing 33.9 per cent of voters had backed the LNP, while Labor was just 0.3 points behind with 33.6 per cent of the vote.”

    First preferences:
    https://ibb.co/9gb2W6f

    Seat results:
    https://ibb.co/fFKkhH0

    Some real surprise in there, not to mention what’s happening in seats not surveyed… Going to be a nail biter!

  18. I’m an engineer, and it was through working in the renewable energy industry that I became a Labor supporter – renewables probably played a role in keeping me immune to the right wing pipeline that many of my old engineering classmates went down. I always saw the culture wars as a trivial distraction from potentially existential issues

  19. 60/40 alp loses 30 rtn 20
    55/45 alp loses 20 retains 30
    Curr 53/47 to 51/49
    Equals small lnp majority less than 5
    Or hung parliament

  20. Kap did not force a hung parliament as they wished,it Looks like they retained their 4 seats.
    The difference between a lnp majority government and a hung parliament will be very small in terms of votes in seats. How many lnp seats will have a margin between 0 to 2%
    Mr C did not answer the question about a conscience vote…. which was effectively a lie as he knows if the issue comes up all lnp mps will get a conscience vote.
    He also changed his stand on whether he will resign if he does not succeed re youth Crime… was yes now no.
    Labor cannot win with out seats in the provincial cities… they now hold Cairns may be Cook
    Gladstone Bundaberg and maybe Maryborough.
    But the reverse holds the lnp cannot government without seats in Brisbane.
    Will this be a one term government? Who knows? Normally a state govt gets two terms.

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