Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
11:47pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation that was based on figures about 35 minutes ago. The LNP is now up to a 53-35 seat lead over Labor and is winning the 2PP by 53.8-46.2. This election wasn’t close.
10:04pm With 34% statewide counted, the LNP has won or is leading in 50seats, Labor in 38, the Katters in three, Greens in one and an independent in one. The PB’s 2PP estimate is 52.7-47.3 to the LNP. It’s clear now that the LNP will win the election, as the swing to it rises on pre-poll and postal votes.
9:52pm In Maiwar, the Greens will need Labor preferences to beat the LNP, and once again pre-poll votes are better for the LNP in swing terms than election day votes.
9:43pm With 30% counted statewide, the PB has the LNP leading by 47 seats to 41, just enough for an LNP majority. The KAP has three, the Greens one and an independent one. The PB now has a 2PP estimate, which is 52.5-47.5 to the LNP. The ABC is at 51.9-48.1 to LNP.
9:38pm In Macalister, both postals and pre-polls counted so far suggest a stronger swing to the LNP than from election day votes.
9:30pm In Everton, however, the pre-poll booths are better for the LNP in swing terms than the election day booths in that seat.
9:21pm In Cook, the first pre-poll booth is better for Labor in swing terms than the election day booths counted so far in that seat.
9:14pm The ABC has fixed its results issue. With 25.3% counted statewide, the LNP leads the ABC’s 2PP estimate by 51.7-48.3. There are still no results from Hervey Bay.
9:06pm Actually something’s gone wrong with the ABC’s results, as they’ve now retreated to 19.5% counted, while PB is up to 23% counted.
9:02pm With 20.4% counted, the ABC has the LNP leading the 2PP by 51.7-48.3. The PB has the LNP ahead in 45 seats to 42 for Labor with three Katters, one Green and one independent.
8:47pm William has posted The Poll Bludger results. With 19% counted, the LNP is leading or has won 46 seats, Labor 41, Katter three, the Greens one and independents one. There’s no two-party estimate on these results available yet.
8:32pm It looks as if Labor will regain Ipswich West, which they lost at a by-election early this year. Labor leads by 55-45 with 21% counted.
8:27pm With 14% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP. The seats won are currently tied at 32 each between Labor and the LNP, with two for Katter. Remember these are election day votes, and pre-poll and postals are likely to be better for the LNP.
8:10pm With 8.5% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.6-48.4 to LNP, with the LNP on 26 seats, Labor on 18, Katter two and independents one. There are 93 total seats, and it will take 47 to win a majority.
7:57pm With 3% counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP, with the LNP so far winning 11 seats to 3 for Labor.
7:51pm With 2% counted, the ABC’s two-party estimate is 52.0-48.0 to the LNP. These votes would be election day votes, and pre-poll and postals will likely be better for the LNP.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel 9, so I’ll be giving live commentary on the Queensland results. Polls close at 7pm AEDT (6pm in Queensland). William will hopefully add a live results link to the top of this post. I will need to do an article for The Conversation tonight.
There were two late polls: a Newspoll reported in the previous post gave the LNP a 52.5-47.5 lead, from primary votes of 42% LNP, 33% Labor, 11% Greens, 8% One Nation and 6% for all Others.
The ABC reported that a uComms poll conducted Thursday from a sample of 3,651 using robopolling, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead. Kevin Bonham has primary votes from this poll, which was not commissioned by anyone. The primary votes are 39.3% LNP, 33.6% Labor, 12.9% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.9% KAP and 3.5% others.
CM exit poll results for those without access:
“The Courier-Mail polled 2000 voters as they cast their ballots at a cross-section of electorates today, with the final tally revealing 33.9 per cent of voters had backed the LNP, while Labor was just 0.3 points behind with 33.6 per cent of the vote.”
First preferences:
https://ibb.co/9gb2W6f
Seat results:
https://ibb.co/fFKkhH0
Some real surprise in there, not to mention what’s happening in seats not surveyed… Going to be a nail biter!
Just been speaking with a friend of mine, a well connected Liberal. Tells me the LNP vote appears to have collapsed this week due to Crisafulli’s botched handling of the abortion issue. Also said at a major booth in the seat that they barely handed out any how to votes, suggesting that the most have pre polled. They think it could go either way and that a minority Labor government is a possiblity.
On those exit poll figures Labor will win the election comfortably.
It does look like the LNP vote might have fallen off a cliff at the last hurdle, presumably there will be a bigger LNP lead in prepolls than usual – anyway we shall all soon find out looks like it’ll be an especially interesting election to watch. Are prepolls getting counted tonight?
I will laugh if the Greens get the BoP…
Thanks Adrian
Those UComms primary vote shares are interesting and confirm my prediction on the last thread of a Labor win, probably with majority.
CM Exit poll – if it’s as good as their last published ‘exit poll’ it’s probably garbage. I guess it depends how good their ‘cross-section’ is.
If it were a true reflection of the whole state’s votes from today alone, and given how many early votes were cast (broadly favouring LNP), then it perhaps suggest I am wrong about Labor winning the most seats. (in 2020, Labor were ahead on primary votes about 39-35% for ALL votes cast, not just election day)
But I would treat it with extreme caution given their track record – and what on earth are they doing publishing an ‘exit poll’ while polling stations are still open and people are still voting?
The votes of today’s poll only add seem to add up to 89.2
Somthing obviously very wonky.
How funny – davidwh and I drew completely opposite conclusions from that exit poll. 🙂
I wonder if there will be any ‘real’ exit polls from anyone when polls close.
Interesting, Algernon.
I think the crime stats walk-back was also a sign of weakness.
We’ll see how it plays out soon enough!
In Australia – for some reason – Exit Polls are released the hour before polls close.
It’s not like the UK where there are actual laws.
I only focused on the LNP % but as ajm said the numbers don’t add to 100%.
My head tells me the LNP will win with a small majority, like 51 seats (less if Townsville gets kattered).
But in my heart we have some unlosable election 2.0 vibes these past few days. The regional seats have been lost for a long time, but there are glimmers of hope elsewhere.
I expect and have accepted an LNP majority, but I hope I’m wrong and we have a cathartic night!
jt1983
Ok thanks
I will say – based on what I heard last weekend up in QLD – both sides were feeling the tide shifting.
The issue will be how much and how soon.
In UK exit pills seem to be quite accurate but in Australia not yet.
The trouble is the sample needs to represent the seat as a whole maybe it does maybe not. We could be matching apples with cockroaches.
Hi Adrian,
Great to have you commenting!
The exit poll suggests it’s only been conducted on polling day and before polls have closed which excludes about half of all people who voted early, so wouldn’t think it can be considered particularly reliable if it hasn’t included any early votes plus a portion of election day voters. Something to give Labor supporters hope though.
I’m not giving the exit poll much weight, not enough regional or rural seats included.
Very Strange Seats Polled but LNP should not be too concerned
Even the individual seat numbers don’t add to 100%
Exit polls rarely seem to be reliable in this country, at least in recent years. I’ll wait for the results of the actual poll tonight.
Anyway let the fun begin. Good luck everyone
Hoping for a good greens result tonight.
South Brisbane, Maiwar, Cooper and McConnel.
Thanks Adrian too for filling in tonight.
The fact that Crisafulli equivocated on the victims of crime numbers in the last couple of days and also that he actually looks scared indicates that the LNP is a bit worried.
Of course their internal polling may be crap anyway and misleading them into thinking they are doing worse than they actually are.
Kevin Bonham says that the ‘exit poll’ if accurate actually means a huge anti-Labor swing 🙁 – Due to the seats polled where Labor primary would be naturally higher.
The ECQ is running non-standard indicative two-candidate preferred counts between the KAP and LNP in Hill, Hinchinbrook and Mirani; between the Greens and the LNP in Maiwar; between Greens and Labor in South Brisbane; between the KAP and Labor in Traeger; and between the independent and the LNP in Noosa. So basically Labor versus LNP in every seat that doesn’t have a non-major party incumbent: no bones thrown to James Ashby in Keppel, or the Greens or KAP in any of their target seats.
Include me in the screencap
Thanks for running this tonight Adrian. Should be interesting 😉
I’m kind of sceptical about the Courier Mail’s methodology in running the exit poll, especially given what we’ve seen from them during the race in terms of their pre-poll exit poll
I voted early in South Brisbane, during the week, the Green MP, Labor candidate and LNP candidate were there – Green and Labor candidates both very chatty, though the Labor candidate was being debated by a Young LNP volunteer the whole time I was there, the LNP candidate looked pretty disinterested and was sitting in the shade by the side.
My prediction is the LNP will win and with a small majority – I have the vibe that this tightening of the race has happened more in Brissy than it has regionally
Dick comes across well on the ABC, and sensible in his reflections.
If the polls hold true, there’s potentially some federal implications here about Queensland Labor’s approach to campaign tactics vs federal Labor’s approach.
The energy and positivity that Miles was giving off this last week felt like he was in front and the LNP was looking like they just wanted to see the finish line. This is what’s making me think it will be close. But I guess vibes don’t win votes so we will see.
A gambling/casino motif is a bit on the nose isn’t it?
Yes hope PHON is wiped out in Keppel, and removed from the QLD parliament
Let’s go!
I’m feeling oddly (and probably foolishly) optimistic about tonight.
Lars
“ Do you know any Engineers who are to the left of you politically socrates?”
Yes quite a few. I grew up in a conservative Catholic household with two parents who were lifelong National Party supporters in Qld. When I first started uni and then work in the 1980s I considered myself centrist with a small L liberal view on lots of issues. Economically I was a pragmatist and liked Paul Keating’s take on economics then. I was too the right of most of my peers.
As time went by I noticed the world slide right while I didn’t. The more I worked and saw the reality of how government and industry worked the less I believed the RW view of the world. I could respect a John Hewson style conservative but not Howard and his lying kin. So these days I am left of centre, but it varies by issue.
As for engineers I observe their politics varies heavily with what industry they work in. The most RW by far are in construction and mining. Those who work in planning are more centrist. Those who work in public utilities like power, water and transport are more often centre left. Environmental engineers are often clearly left wing.
So overall I’d say 60% of engineers I have worked with are to the right of me and 40% similar or further left. A majority of the younger engineers are well to the left.
Rebecca @ #30 Saturday, October 26th, 2024 – 6:10 pm
Cameron used to be my local member in Greenslopes. Very smart guy.
Yeah, I particularly hope ON goes down in Keppel. Brittany Lauga has been through hell and always seemed like a good MP, and I really hope she gets over the line.
Voxpops from Brisbane times.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBlFG3TPwTJ/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet
Scenic Rim are looking like a LNP vs ONP TCP early on.
Southern Downs also looking like a LNP vs ONP TCP early on.
Janetzki comes across like a complete goose.
Rebecca
“ If the polls hold true, there’s potentially some federal implications here about Queensland Labor’s approach to campaign tactics vs federal Labor’s approach.”
I hope Federal Labor pays close attention to Miles campaign both policies and style. He has given a masterclass in countering evasive populism. That includes both economic policy (strong focus on cost of living) and social policy (combating attacks on immigration, health, education and women’s rights.) Very relevant IMO.
Miles looks like he has already at least halved Labors’ feared seat losses.
LNP commentator accusing Labor of a scare campaign while *still* being unable to answer whether or not the LNP would vote for re-criminalising abortion.
Lockyer valley booths reporting on QEC.
LNP 53.2%, ALP 20.1%, PHON 12%.
I’m from Vic, so is the Lockyer region rural Qld or outer Brisbane.
The LNP should make it home, but not by much – 49 seats to 35 …
https://electiontragic.wordpress.com/2024/10/26/lnp-victory-likely-but-less-than-convincing/
Janetzki STILL not answering the question on abortion was hilarious
@Vlad – rural.
Asha
When a “scare campaign” is based on quoting opposition candidates, I think it has graduated from a scare campaign to challenging a real threat.
Given the SA Liberals tried the same stunt (conscience vote on anti abortion bill after no mention of it in their campaign) Labor has every right to raise it.
KAP vote down 20% early in Hill & Traeger
Immediately followed by Katter on the ABC saying he will introduce abortion legislation! The LNP just can’t help themselves at not being idealogues and putting this stuff aside to actually win.
23% swing to the LNP in Aspley
12% swing against Labor on primaries.
What is going on. This is a Brisbane electorate.