Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
11:47pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation that was based on figures about 35 minutes ago. The LNP is now up to a 53-35 seat lead over Labor and is winning the 2PP by 53.8-46.2. This election wasn’t close.
10:04pm With 34% statewide counted, the LNP has won or is leading in 50seats, Labor in 38, the Katters in three, Greens in one and an independent in one. The PB’s 2PP estimate is 52.7-47.3 to the LNP. It’s clear now that the LNP will win the election, as the swing to it rises on pre-poll and postal votes.
9:52pm In Maiwar, the Greens will need Labor preferences to beat the LNP, and once again pre-poll votes are better for the LNP in swing terms than election day votes.
9:43pm With 30% counted statewide, the PB has the LNP leading by 47 seats to 41, just enough for an LNP majority. The KAP has three, the Greens one and an independent one. The PB now has a 2PP estimate, which is 52.5-47.5 to the LNP. The ABC is at 51.9-48.1 to LNP.
9:38pm In Macalister, both postals and pre-polls counted so far suggest a stronger swing to the LNP than from election day votes.
9:30pm In Everton, however, the pre-poll booths are better for the LNP in swing terms than the election day booths in that seat.
9:21pm In Cook, the first pre-poll booth is better for Labor in swing terms than the election day booths counted so far in that seat.
9:14pm The ABC has fixed its results issue. With 25.3% counted statewide, the LNP leads the ABC’s 2PP estimate by 51.7-48.3. There are still no results from Hervey Bay.
9:06pm Actually something’s gone wrong with the ABC’s results, as they’ve now retreated to 19.5% counted, while PB is up to 23% counted.
9:02pm With 20.4% counted, the ABC has the LNP leading the 2PP by 51.7-48.3. The PB has the LNP ahead in 45 seats to 42 for Labor with three Katters, one Green and one independent.
8:47pm William has posted The Poll Bludger results. With 19% counted, the LNP is leading or has won 46 seats, Labor 41, Katter three, the Greens one and independents one. There’s no two-party estimate on these results available yet.
8:32pm It looks as if Labor will regain Ipswich West, which they lost at a by-election early this year. Labor leads by 55-45 with 21% counted.
8:27pm With 14% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP. The seats won are currently tied at 32 each between Labor and the LNP, with two for Katter. Remember these are election day votes, and pre-poll and postals are likely to be better for the LNP.
8:10pm With 8.5% counted, the 2PP estimate is 51.6-48.4 to LNP, with the LNP on 26 seats, Labor on 18, Katter two and independents one. There are 93 total seats, and it will take 47 to win a majority.
7:57pm With 3% counted, the ABC’s 2PP estimate is 51.1-48.9 to LNP, with the LNP so far winning 11 seats to 3 for Labor.
7:51pm With 2% counted, the ABC’s two-party estimate is 52.0-48.0 to the LNP. These votes would be election day votes, and pre-poll and postals will likely be better for the LNP.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
William Bowe is working for Channel 9, so I’ll be giving live commentary on the Queensland results. Polls close at 7pm AEDT (6pm in Queensland). William will hopefully add a live results link to the top of this post. I will need to do an article for The Conversation tonight.
There were two late polls: a Newspoll reported in the previous post gave the LNP a 52.5-47.5 lead, from primary votes of 42% LNP, 33% Labor, 11% Greens, 8% One Nation and 6% for all Others.
The ABC reported that a uComms poll conducted Thursday from a sample of 3,651 using robopolling, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead. Kevin Bonham has primary votes from this poll, which was not commissioned by anyone. The primary votes are 39.3% LNP, 33.6% Labor, 12.9% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.9% KAP and 3.5% others.
The difference between what the lnp get and a hung parliament is razor thin.
Maybe 53 as opposed to 46.
Some of the seats show projected results of less than 51%
Asha, it strikes me as being a speech nakedly directed to the Labor faithful/party room, that he wants to stick around as leader in opposition.
Which is fair enough, I suppose, but he’s pretty swiftly looking like a goose about his prediction of no LNP majority.
And frankly, I wouldn’t be trying to relitigate an election you just lost – pointing out that Crisafulli was a small target and you’re better than him seems weird to me, when you’ve literally just been beaten by the guy (and by a progressively healthier looking margin by the hour).
Ultimately, the ‘concession’ speech is the real Steven Miles, the guy who was on display frequently prior to becoming Premier but who was made over upon his ascension – a machine man with an overinflated ego, petty and self-righteous. He has just reminded Queenslanders why they didn’t like him until the right couldn’t shut up about abortion in the last month.
I think Miles could have stayed on as opposition leader had he brought things down to the wire, but not now that the result is looking like the standard not-quite-a-landslide election loss that we typically see in state politics. And particularly not after that speech.
Don’t get me wrong, he deserves credit for the good work he did in bringing things back from the brink and avoiding an electoral disaster, but that doesn’t mean he is the right person to be opposition leader going forward.
Yes 52 34
is quite possible.
Kap 3 to 4
Gr 1
Ind 1
Quentin Rountree @ #445 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 12:38 am
I’m sorry that you feel this way, and please don’t act how you feel at the moment, but this is really how Australian elections play out. We have to wait until all election day, absent, prepoll, postal and provisional votes are counted before the winner of each seat is declared, and they can vary extensively in every election.
I point out that in nsw
Labor failed to win any of the seats in the late counting
Kirk I’m not I listen I’m not I don’t know what I am what feel but I’m happy that labour didn’t get wiped out people acting like this is the worst thing ever like you honestly I think the people on the need to realize that it could have been way worse for the Labour Party like we were looking from this year 10 to 18 seats 34 seats is a pretty good result now I’m hoping the liberal party don’t do anything stupid but knowing them they will I’m just I think people tend to do more doom more often than not which helps no one I hope David listens to the people who put him in for the health care and all that because if he doesn’t well four years later and ain’t gonna look good for him it’s just I think people to like to film miserable um like at least this isn’t a Northern Territory result
Wow, massive swing in Keppel. I thought there was not much crime there.
Then I remembered the drink spiking epidemic or something like that.
Does Katter support D.C statehood? I Just watched Sky News clips and he said and I quote “The US has 51 states” 51 states? What is he on. Everyone knows they have 50, unless he means D.C is a state.
Postal votes counted in South Brisbane so far (about a third of the 2020 total) are showing a 19% (!) swing to the Liberals.
I am not sure how likely that trend is to continue. Also, are we expecting fewer postals this time due to no COVID restrictions?
The Brisbane City PPVC has no results yet. And then there’s absents.
With 40% ish of the 2020 postal total counted in Maiwar the Liberals are up 9%. If this was to continue the Liberal primary vote lead would grow by another 1500 or so to 3300. You’d still think the Green could pretty easily claw that back on Labor preferences though.
Quentin Rountree, you sound really distressed and concerned, but really, you shouldn’t be. Australian states and territories have had scores of changes of government over history, and life just goes on.
If you’re spooked by stuff you’ve read here or elsewhere about how evil an LNP government will be – well, they might not be to your taste politically, but there’s no need to be upset or panicked. They’re not going to dismantle the health or education systems, and with a view to trying to keep power next time around, I’d be surprised if they start slashing services.
So just take it easy mate, it’ll all be ok. In your day to day life, I imagine you’ll notice very little difference between yesterday and what’s to come.
Labor does badly always on prepolls and postals, it happens in every election. How do you ameliorate that? Come up with policies that appeal to an older age group? Actually the more this result overall develops, it looks like a very solid LNP majority. And frankly Miles is not the right person to lead an opposition. They need especially to work hard in regional QLD and outer metropolitan Brisbane, work out what went wrong there. Arguably the 50 cent public transport fare policy really only helped them in inner city Brisbane.
Listen guys I’m not suicidal it’s just I’m happy that the Labour Party didn’t go wiped out like it’s not 76 to 7 I can live with 53 to mid 30s it’s just you guys a bombing me out I don’t know I’m on I’m trying to get on the NDIS I’m autistic I don’t know man I’m just over it
Maiwar is a UQ seat
Natasha Winters works there, ran a well resourced campaign.
Looks like the Greens novelty has worn off.
Hubris caught up with them.
The lnp had a perfect storm in Townsville.
Country seats.Keppel
Mackay Rockhampton
Used to be held in opposition.
Quentin Rountree,
I am autistic and on NDIS as well and I completely get what you are saying, But NDIS is a federal issue and I think you can take the LNP victory as a blessing as it will help Labor retain Blair and possibly gain Griffith and Brisbane which will offset other losses.
The worst thing that can happen to this country is a Dutton premiership and the top priority should be stopping this from occurring, Door knock, volunteer, do what you can to help federal ALP be re-elected, because people like you and me count on the ALP to deliver for people with disabilities and not slash welfare like the LNP will federally.
Quentin – the sun still comes up in the morning. Mate, it is not worth getting depressed about, you can’t win all of the time in politics. Have a good sleep, go for a walk tomorrow, get the election out of your mind.
The one upside is getting to know Princeplanet, and having respectful conversations over the past few weeks. This thread is way more civilised than the pitched battle on the U.S election threads
Quite the dignified victory speech from Crisafulli, I have to say. Hits all the right notes, and stands in unfortunate contrast to Miles’ speech earlier.
Of course, what really matters isn’t what Crisafulli says tonight, its what he does during the next four years. I recall Newman making a very graceful and humble victory speech back in 2012 that suggested he would be a consensus-driven moderate. Time will tell if the LNP have learned some lessons from that disaster.
Dutton isn’t going to cut Disability spending, but he might cut the waste.
Labor should be ashamed of fear mongering vulnerable people, it didn’t start with MediScare, it’s all they’ve got.
That, and funnelling consultancies to their mates.
Like guys I’m not suicidal wait thanks for your concerns I really appreciate it I’m just happy Stevens actually ran a campaign maybe the concession speech should be better but I’m generally happy it’s not a wipeout it’s just I think people had too high hopes I
Crisafulli isn’t going to be a consensus driven moderate, that’s the road to oblivion.
What he is going to do is stop the 2 tier policing in the non metropolitan cities.
As Scott Stewart, defeated in Townsville said on the ABC, it was the youth crime issue that brought Labor down in Townsville.
So, no beat up, it was the truth all along, Labor was all spin, no answers.
Badthinker, You say that until it ends up happening (remember Abbott?) short term memory for many people on the conservative side on politics.
It’s alright for most LNP people to live in 800k$+ houses in well built up estates, with kids, not doing it tough, they have jobs, they can go on holiday allot. They are selfish bloons that don’t give a damn about poorer people who are living day to day on expenses.
This was especially the case in new housing estates with young families, pompous people they are. with no regard for the poor.
the 2pp is now 54.3% LNP.
Newspoll had the primaries right at 42 LNP and 33 Labor but got the preference flow wrong at 52.5%.
My question is, is the Federal Newspoll correctly assessing the preference flow or does Dutton have Albo down a hole currently.
Dutton would be dumb to touch the NDIS, and anyway, it is not a state government issue.
Where this is bad for federal labor will be that their state counterparts going into opposition means a lack of resourcing when it comes to a federal campaign, and frankly all the federal labor preselections so far in QLD don’t fill me with encouragement. Seats like Herbert and Hinkler are way out of reach now.
The youth crime thing is hard to solve – will tough sentences and increased sentences dissuade young blokes especially from stealing cars and breaking into private property?
I notice that the now former Labor MP in Capalaba who called youth crime “a media beatup” lost his seat tonight – this encapsulates how one issue has cost Labor 20 seats in QLD. Bob Carr won 3 straight elections in NSW largely because it was perceived he was a tough cop on the beat.
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 1:05 am
Maiwar is a UQ seat
Natasha Winters works there, ran a well resourced campaign.
Looks like the Greens novelty has worn off.
Hubris caught up with them.
————
I read this in the media:
Early October.
Over recent months, the Queensland Jewish Collective (QJC) has funded large billboards and delivered 30,000 leaflets to households in Inner Brisbane. On Thursday, volunteers appeared for the first time on pre-poll booths and announced they would be stationed at booths on election day.
They were targeting the Greens who have condemned genocide in Gaza.
Have they had an influence, loss of votes for The Greens, in seats held by a Green?
Or in the Green vote generally?
Listen guys sorry if I scared you I didn’t mean to I’m just listen I’m just hoping David is More Smarter than Campbell Newman I’m also happy that Steven didn’t led the Labor Party into a Wipe Out so I’ll talk to you guys tomorrow thanks for your concerns how many manage because let’s be honest there’s always in the next election
FUBAR says:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:19 pm
Prediction for Nadia: LNP 54 ALP 46
Closest to the pin, I believe.
Just lovely to see the Greens getting a gods kicking.
Quentin
I hope you feel better in the morning.
Please from now on, could you use punctuation – at least full stops – in your posts and try not to repeat the same things in the same post quite as much?
Yes, you’re right, Labor held the fort so they have a strong defensive position to fortify before they go on the offensive again.
But ultimately, a loss is a loss – and a government can do the same things with a 5-seat majority as a 50-seat majority – so some Labor supporters on here are probably more sad than you were when their hopes had got risen with the later polls showing all the momentum with Labor.
I’m now curious if those late polls were finding the right proportion of ‘already voted’ in their polls, they seem awfully closer to the ‘on the day’ votes than the overall vote.
But maybe that’s just coincidence and they were just wrong.
Daniel 1.23am
That’s quite an inaccurate stereotype.
Of course some will live in big houses or be rich etc, but like everywhere else in the Western world ‘conservative’ parties are increasingly getting their votes from working classes / lower income households. It’s not merely an American phenomenon.
Had Miles speech continued on and done the ‘gracious bit’ at the end it might have been seen in a wholly different light as an upbeat rallying of the troops whilst acknowledging the result, instead of still trying to fight the campaign.
He didn’t even make the point that the campaign had taken them from ‘wipeout’ to giving LNP a scare, which might have given some context and justification for the speech he gave.
He probably realises that with hindsight, but unfortunately it will be reported and forever remembered as him being very out of touch with average Queenslanders.
It was also very long, especially for one without the concession bit at the end.
“Today Queenslanders voted for hope over fear” … says the leader who campaigned solely on stoking fear of confected crime issues.
FUBAR: “Just lovely to see the Greens getting a gods
kicking”
Er, yeah, I guess … if maintaining your vote share amounts to a “kicking” … ?
Lukem @ 8.34pm
The overall % of Green votes has increased because they stood in every seat.
The seats, where their vote matters, the two they hold tell a different story.
They’ve lost one and may hold onto a seat due to the flow of ALP preferences.
This is similar to the No Notion vote.
They’ve lost the one seat they held, but still managed a sizeable % of the overall vote.
ALP still in lecturing mode. The transition to listening mode is clearly going to take a while.
You can’t run a government in Queensland by lecturing from inner city Brisbane. In fact, it doesn’t work federally, either. I wonder if Mr Albanese is in a mood to listen?
Upnorth @ #319 Saturday, October 26th, 2024 – 10:36 pm
You can buy us that champagne when the gang meets again in January if you like? 😉
Skyhooks predicted this in 1974.
Greens vs Legalise Marijuana.
“Whatever happened to the revolution?
We all got stoned and drifted away…”
And then remembered to vote.
As it now stands, the ABC’s Antony Green is projecting that the LNP has secured 49 seats to form a majority and Labor 30 seats. He projects that Katter’s Australian party has picked up three seats, and that One Nation and the Greens might have no representation in the next parliament.
(The Guardian)
Something to mark David Crisafulli on:
David Crisafulli is also speaking on the LNP’s plan for health, stating that “ambulance ramping will not remain the highest in the country, at 45%”.
“And you will know that because within 100 days, you will see what’s happening in your hospital in real time, and you will have doctors and nurses back in charge of those hospitals.”
Think we need to understand regarding the late polls is that it didn’t include the prepolls etc when the LNP were going to win in a landslide. The prepolls didn’t capture the late swing to the ALP.
Any rate some lessons for Albanese but doubt any federal implications for the ALP in Qld given they only hold 5 seats of the 30.
And we always know Qld is a different beast and no upper house means the government can introduce it policies without fear of them being negotiated.
Lets see if the LNP can stay in office for more than one term.
On balance, the ALP furniture saved – more of a well packed bus than the Tarago Opposition which Queensland has thrown up in the past.
And as mentioned multiple times, the Greens hubris and outlandish grandstanding on just about every issue the elected federal government is trying to do – has met the reality of what voters think about it. Zero seats would be a wake up call for Bandt.
The concern has been wall-to-wall state ALP and a federal ALP weighing in voters minds, who have traditionally liked the checks and balances of different parties. Now with QLD adding to the NT result and Tasmania we have 3 of the 8 jurisdictions with a conservative hue.
Just over 6 months to the federal election, surely the QLD LNP won’t do a Campbell Newman. How will the up till now invisible David Crisafuli play in the southern markets?
The economic reality of the physical size of Qld, the transition away from coal, the vagaries of mining for export, the Qld health needs, the environmental concerns and faux claims regarding youth crime will have this new LNP government reeling before the next Federal election.
The “arrogance” of the “born to rule” attitude displayed by Senator McDonald during the ABC coverage of the Qld election says it all.
Since the disastrous Newman experiment very quickly went “belly-up”, Qld has actually had a very successful, sensible and progressive government thanks to Labor.
The new premier of Qld is placing a serious amount of trust in many factors outside his control. Crisafulli and the new government will be given a “honeymoon” till Christmas and the signs of distress will be evident well before the next Federal election.
The Anastasia Palaszczuk “reign” is about to be given the recognition it deserved.
Wow! A lot changed with the late counting of the prepolls and postals. Crisafulli clearly has a majority though it is still small. This is still clearly a big improvement from where Labor started though not as good as it looked earlier.
The marked difference between on the day and prepoll votes highlights how effective Labor’s last week of campaigning was.
Miles non-concession speech looks bad in hindsight but the timing was unfortunate. Things obviously shifted in the time between when it was written and when Antony Green pronounced the result.
Qld now faces some harsh LNP rule again. This won’t hurt Labor federally and Miles has shown how to attack populist oppositions. I hope Miles stays on.
Goll
The first LNP budget in Qld will be the acid test. Crisafulli can’t keep his promise to mining billionaires without cutting the public sector and services. He will cut.
After the slump in the last week I expect the LNP will delay any abortion ban until after the next Federal election but then they will try that too.
Miles started his speech with “I” and regularly talked about “I”. Not on for a political leader.
Labor needed something equivalent to 50 cent public transport for people not having access. Regional voters not happy.
LNP on youth crime pathetic combo of scare mongering and dog whistling.
So Miles conceded this morning. It makes me wonder how much of a leash Katie Flanders had him on during the campaign. I don’t imagine she crafted his speech last night, and it was his biggest blunder of the month.
I stand by my view that he comes across as an unserious person, not a leader.
Of course, Crisafulli appears about as deep as the ephemeral creek at the back of my place.
If nothing else, it will make for an interesting four years.
Irene at 1:51 am
Badthinkersays:
…
————
I read this in the media:
Early October.
Over recent months, the Queensland Jewish Collective (QJC) has funded large billboards and delivered 30,000 leaflets to households in Inner Brisbane. On Thursday, volunteers appeared for the first time on pre-poll booths and announced they would be stationed at booths on election day.
They were targeting the Greens who have condemned genocide in Gaza.
Have they had an influence, loss of votes for The Greens, in seats held by a Green?
Or in the Green vote generally?
I would say Yes and Yes.
The QJC also vowed to help Christian Rowan in Moggill he was predicted to be in a bit of trouble, ended up winning well.
Just guessing, Postal Votes take a couple days in the post, not sure how many days to clear at ECQ and be dispatched to the counters, if ayone is scrutineering Postals it would be interesting to know if and how the vote changed going on the dates on the envelopes?
It is correct that the City of Brisbane was insulated from the LNP wave everywhere else, ironically the Brisbane Bubble is due to Sallyanne Atkinson’s 6 years as Lord Mayor
and the 20 years of Newman, Quirk and Schrinner have made it a pleasant place.
—————————————————
Yeah, there’s stupid shit like tunnels and pointless pedestrian bridges across the river uglifying the place up, but that’s the 10 years of Labor in George St thinking up make work boondoggles for their Union and corporate mates, not City Hall.