Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
Friday evening
Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.
The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.
That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.
Thursday evening
Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.
Wednesday evening
What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.
Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.
The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.
Tuesday evening
Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.
My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.
In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.
Sunday evening
Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.
That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:
Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.
Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.
Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.
Saturday evening
After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.
Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.
It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.
This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.
FUBAR says:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:19 pm
Prediction for Nadia: LNP 54 ALP 46
Closest to the pin, I believe.
Just lovely to see the Greens getting a gods kicking.
Saunders will likely recover Maryborough in 2028 if he re-contests. Not sure why there was a massive swing.
Also are Cook voters racist for dishing out Iamalaig woman, Cynthia Lui?
Labor might finish holding 2 regional and rural seats, Cook and Gladstone. Libs hold practically every Gold and Sunshine Coast seat and NP hold just about every seat outside SEcorner. For every $100 per elector spent in SEQld, labor has spent over $150 elsewhere. Coal and gas production is winding down and mining companies are closing down mines. The renewable energy transition is seeing more and more funding for these projects happening in the bush. New Industry, jobs, population will help with a soft landing but this funding is being opposed and you must wonder why. The incoming Govt is anti hydro and wind power. They intend to make savings in the billions in this sector.
Sky news runs free to air in all those bush areas. So news every night is from Credlin and the other after dark hosts who think global warming is a beat up and coal is OK. Does the Murdoch press have influence to the extent that they can effect an election? ABC has been critical of Labor in many of its political commentaries.
Maybe there should be a rural Labor party formed. As the L and NP effectively do that, why not Labor? The employment and cost of living problems facing workers and their families is the same across the State.
Let’s see what comes up in the naval gazing that happens after every defeat.
Mr Ed
Cook is gone for Labor, realistically.
I’m now curious if those late polls were finding the right proportion of ‘already voted’ in their polls, they seem awfully closer to the ‘on the day’ votes than the overall vote.
But maybe that’s just coincidence and they were just wrong.
Daniel 1.23am (previous live thread)
That’s quite an inaccurate stereotype.
Of course some will live in big houses or be rich etc, but like everywhere else in the Western world ‘conservative’ parties are increasingly getting their votes from working classes / lower income households. It’s not merely an American phenomenon.
Had Miles (already too long) speech continued on and done the ‘gracious bit’ at the end it might have been seen in a wholly different light as an upbeat rallying of the troops whilst acknowledging the result, instead of still trying to fight the campaign.
He didn’t even make the point that the campaign had taken them from ‘wipeout’ to giving LNP a scare, which might have given some context and justification for the speech he gave.
He probably realises that with hindsight, but unfortunately it will be reported and forever remembered as him being very out of touch with average Queenslanders.
If his political antennae is working, I suspect Miles will resign as leader on Sunday/Monday.
BTSayssays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 3:23 am
I’m now curious if those late polls were finding the right proportion of ‘already voted’ in their polls, they seem awfully closer to the ‘on the day’ votes than the overall vote.
But maybe that’s just coincidence and they were just wrong.
______________
Brisbane Times had the question from i think the newspoll and it was just the usual “if an election were held today” one, so might be seeing a bit of buyers remorse before the products even delivered.
Looks like there was a lot of premature elation on here last night from the usual suspects.
To be hoped that the result means abortion scare campaigns are not a feature of the future as well and we dont go down the US road in that respect.
Good result all in all. 10 yr old govt replaced which had clearly run out of puff – I mean really free lunch for all without means testing, LNP able to govern effectively with a comfortable but not massive majority and if they stuff up or go crazy they can be replaced in a term. Labor has kept some of its best potential in parly so will be able to rebuild fairly well.
It’s a shame that early voting means electors don’t get the full story. Might as well end the campaign when voting starts. Anyway the election was determined by regional centres and the traditional LNP heartland of Sunshine and Gold Coasts . The encouraging thing for Labor is that it appears to have hung onto Brisbane and most of its talent pool. Townsville and Cairns and probably Rocky will swing back hard when the crime problem turns out to be harder to solve than just locking them up. I could not see a path to victory for Labor this time but I can next time.
Fair assessment Lars but I don’t think the abortion issue is settled because there will be a private members bill and conservative members will want change, only three LNP members voted against decriminalising. Also if the LNP solves youth crime in FNQ they will have deserved to win. This is a complicated issue and LNP may disappoint NQ voters. Labor certainly in a position to pounce should this LNP government not meet expectations.
‘Irene says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 1:51 am
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 1:05 am
Maiwar is a UQ seat [indooroopilly, toowong, St Lucia, Ironside, Auchenflower]
Natasha Winters works there, ran a well resourced campaign.
Looks like the Greens novelty has worn off.
Hubris caught up with them.
————
I read this in the media:
Early October.
Over recent months, the Queensland Jewish Collective (QJC) has funded large billboards and delivered 30,000 leaflets to households in Inner Brisbane. On Thursday, volunteers appeared for the first time on pre-poll booths and announced they would be stationed at booths on election day.
They were targeting the Greens who have condemned genocide in Gaza.
Have they had an influence, loss of votes for The Greens, in seats held by a Green?
Or in the Green vote generally?’
=======================
In China no-one gets to vote and the only person who gets to tell lies is X. So Xi lies all the time. And murders his opponents.
I do hope the Greens are not squealing about someone spreading ME misinformation about them and saying bad things about them. After all it is the Greens that have been running around telling anyone who cares to listen that the Prime Minister supports genocide.
The Greens: Goose gandered.
Summary:
A huge loss for Labor. Main lessons for Albanese: Racism/migration/crime/COL are electoral poison.
Greens evens on the numbers but dumb electoral luck only gets you so far. Main lesson. Extremist ratbaggery is not working. Ten per centers are going to be ten per centers.
A huge win for the LNP. Main lessons: Racism/migration/crime/COL are winners in Opposition. Now for the reality burger.
Teals are nothingburgers north of the Tweed. Main lesson. Stay south of the Tweed.
Mr Ed says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 3:03 am
“Sky news runs free to air in all those bush areas. So news every night is from Credlin and the other after dark hosts who think global warming is a beat up and coal is OK. Does the Murdoch press have influence to the extent that they can effect an election? ”
——–
Labor lost because they have totally ignored the regions for decades, and they only seve to be raped of their wealth to be handed to Brisbane.
I will give you an example. A vehicle hit a guard rail on a bridge in central Qld. There was some minor damage requiring repair. Main Roads lowered the speed limit to 40 of all things for a couple of months, by which time most cars just ignored it as the damage was that minor. Then the speed limit got raised to 60. Eight months it took main roads to fix the damages guard rail.
That is how much Main Roads have been gutted of workers by labor to fix roads. Even now the highway is riddles with pot holes. Meanwhile $0.50c fares. Well there is no public transport here, and we have to drive on substandard roads in 2024, damaging our cars in the process.
But no it is SkyNews and all regional and rural people have been brainwashed.
Boerwar: I don’t agree that it’s a huge win for the LNP. If you think about the drag of 9 years of government this result is about right. Something similar could happen in Vic next election as well ( I hope it’s doesn’t). This was no wipeout for Labor just an effective crime and punishment campaign worked in any seat with a “youth crime” ( dog whistle) problem. Certainly wasn’t an NT type result though. The LNP has a very narrow mandate- crime which is very complex and a minefield perhaps even a no win situation, hospital ramping which no other government has solved ( maybe they hope people will forget about this one) and keeping their holy rolling troops from trying to enact conservative social policy. It will be an interesting time ahead . At least the local Murdoch paper will be able to blast out some positive front pages for a while.
BTSayssays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 3:23 am
I’m now curious if those late polls were finding the right proportion of ‘already voted’ in their polls, they seem awfully closer to the ‘on the day’ votes than the overall vote.
But maybe that’s just coincidence and they were just wrong.
______________
There’s a lot of poll illiteracy on a site supposedly about psephology
Final Newspoll LNP 42 Labor 33 Greens 11 PHON 8 Others 6
Results at the end of the night LNP 41.9 Labor 32.8 Greens 9.6 PHON 7.8 Other 7.7
If you think that’s “wrong” on a sample of 1100 you know nothing (Jon Snow).
Current 2pp ESTIMATE is 54 vs Newspoll 52 1/3
The 2PP estimate could easily change but it’s still pretty good by historical standards and perhaps the error is in previous election flows which is what Newspoll uses. Resolve using previous election flows had 52.
On balance, the ALP furniture saved – more of a well packed bus than the Tarago Opposition which Queensland has thrown up in the past.
And as mentioned multiple times, the Greens hubris and outlandish grandstanding on just about every issue the elected federal government is trying to do – has met the reality of what voters think about it. Zero seats would be a wake up call for Bandt.
The concern has been wall-to-wall state ALP and a federal ALP weighing in voters minds, who have traditionally liked the checks and balances of different parties. Now with QLD adding to the NT result and Tasmania we have 3 of the 8 jurisdictions with a conservative hue.
Just over 6 months to the federal election, surely the QLD LNP won’t do a Campbell Newman. How will the up till now invisible David Crisafuli play in the southern markets?
Will be interesting to see changes in preference flows between Labor and Greens, could be useful for the federal election estimates.
Youth crime is looking like the big issue that Labor needs to come to terms with at the state government level.
It’s a bit like how boat people were playing under the R-G-R governments. Labor got stuck on the wrong side of the debate about 1) offshore detention and then 2) boat turnbacks. They looked like they had thrown up their hands and said “nothing can really be done to stop this.” They attempted to scramble out of the hole they had dug for themselves late in the piece with Rudd’s pronouncement that people sent to Manus and Nauru would rot there forever (which he absurdly later denied he had ever said). But the issue was so bad for them that it carried a total clown like Abbott into the Prime Ministership.
I think Labor has gone down the same path with youth crime. They have failed to convince the public that they have any strong intention to do anything about it. The issue is looming large in many voters’ minds, and arguments that the statistics don’t support the contention that it’s a growing problem are counter-productive.
If the Finocchiaro and Crisafulli governments have any sense, what they will be trying to do now is to make some changes to the criminal justice system to create a few “show trials” of the most egregious young thugs going around: fine upstanding citizens like the guy who stole PageBoi’s son’s car in Coffs Harbour.
The aim will be to get a few of these guys denied bail, and then convicted as adults and sentenced to longish terms with significant non-parole periods. Some judges and magistrates will resist, and the Feds might also cause some trouble for the NT Government: although it would be monumentally risky for the Albo Government to go anywhere near the issue.
But I can’t see any significant barriers preventing the Crisafulli Government from – after a bit of a struggle – eventually getting some of these young criminals locked away for a fair while. And they’ll be able to dine out on that result, regardless of any statistics that their opponents might want to wave around. And any shrieks coming from the bleeding heart element of the political left will simply enhance the aura around Crisafulli even further.
As I’ve posted before, the sleeper issue is that the prison systems of Australia aren’t capable of taking on lots more inmates. This issue has been slowly coming to a head as the ways of detecting crime have been advaning rapidly through developments such as DNA testing and the spread of security and dashboard cameras. The rising number of people being caught is a major reason why judges and magistrates are handing out more lenient sentences that people would like: ie, because they know that the prison systems don’t have the capacity to take them all.
If the Crisafulli Government wants to impress me, it would invest heavily in expanding and modernising the prison system. But of course they won’t, because there aren’t any votes in doing that.
This is actually an area where a national approach led by a reformist Federal Government could actually make a significant difference, and might win some kudos for the Prime Minister who took it on. There are significant constitutional barriers, but where there’s a will there’s a way.
I think Labor should be relieved at the result, polling a few weeks ago looked like they were going to be thrashed.
And as sprocket says, here’s more evidence that voters are sick of the Greens playing student politics instead of behaving like grown ups.
This is a labor loss.. not an LNP win.
Will be reversed in 4 years from now.
We QLDers are majority labor voters.. have been for decades now.
But every 10-15 years we feel the need to give labor a massive kick in the arse.. when the Labor government gets tired and stale.
So in comes the LNP for a term.
One look at the last 30 years is all the evidence you need for this.
QLD voters will, within a year, be readying their baseball bats for the next election to kick the LNP out again.. the ratbags and religious loonies in the LNP will not be able to help themselves and QLDers will not put up with their antics for more than 1 term.
BTW I share the general joy that the Greens had a rough night.
I was pretty aghast at Miles’s non-concession speech. It was on a par with Turnbull’s 2016 dummy-spit. I had been starting to suspect that Miles wasn’t quite the turkey I had perceived him to be, but Thanksgiving came a month early last night.
I know nothing whatsoever about Fentiman, but I think she should probably be given a crack. I generally prefer the Labor right, and therefore might have thought that someone like Dick would be the answer. But I watched him last night, and he rather reminded me of Barrie “Mr Charisma” Unsworth. The Queensland ALP needs someone a bit livelier than him.
(On the other hand, anyone would have looked a bit bland alongside Jessica Van Vonderen’s spotto jacket last night.)
meher babasays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:03 am
Youth crime is looking like the big issue that Labor needs to come to terms with at the state government level
____________
Take away – statistics don’t matter, community safety doesn’t matter, actually reducing crime is irrelevant – if Baby Newman can put two or more kids in jail on life sentences for car theft, it’s job done, cruise control to ’28.
Sickening.
The things that would have helped reduce crime rates further than their already record lows are the very things alp discovered too late in the campaign – free school lunch, free public transport, cheaper electricity.
A Liberal friend of mine in Queensland is saying a one term government. Probably blow themselves up after a year.
Banquo911: “The things that would have helped reduce crime rates further than their already record lows are the very things alp discovered too late in the campaign – free school lunch, free public transport, cheaper electricity.”
—————————————————————————–
There’s an interesting thought in there: that free public transport might make young people less inclined to steal cars. If only it were as simple as that!
‘meher baba says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:24 am
Banquo911: “The things that would have helped reduce crime rates further than their already record lows are the very things alp discovered too late in the campaign – free school lunch, free public transport, cheaper electricity.”
—————————————————————————–
There’s an interesting thought in there: that free public transport might make young people less inclined to steal cars. If only it were as simple as that!’
=======================
haha
Greens loss has nothing to do with rat-baggery. You’d see a bigger statewide drop in primaries if that were the case. This was a conservative win and a progressive loss not confined to individual parties (see on, kap, LNP, ff vs alp, lcq, green, ajp).
Greens do poorer when the coalition does well overall because voters get spooked at the prospect of a wipeout and try to shore up Labor’s vote.
Greens also do poorer when labor does socialism because when labor is boldly progressive there is less need for a party to the left of labor.
If all you labor gushers think it’s the greens that have a lesson to learn in this, I expect you’ll be consigning yourselves to further oblivion. Its going to be harder to keep up the ’13 percenters’ line as your primary marches lower.
Lessons for the labor party – go left.
Lesson for the greens, seek preference deals I guess?
Lesson for the coalition – lying works.
Princeplanet says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 7:43 am
Boerwar: I don’t agree that it’s a huge win for the LNP….’
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LOL. I would take it. Taken together this election result is a huge win for the right.
I would suggest that Laborites don’t get their hopes up too far re the LNP being only a one-term government. Crisafulli and his team are certainly no great shakes, but, in Australia, most state and Federal governments routinely get two terms.
Campbell Newman had to work extremely hard to lose after one term: it was a stupendous achievement requiring major stuff ups right across the board. And, even then, Annastacia only just scraped across the line.
I guess Crisafulli might manage it if the lunatic element in his party pushes him anywhere near the abortion issue again, but my assessment is that they won’t dare to do that. So I’d say he’ll get two terms or more.
gollsays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:24 am
The economic reality of the physical size of Qld, the transition away from coal, the vagaries of mining for export, the Qld health needs, the environmental concerns and faux claims regarding youth crime will have this new LNP government reeling before the next Federal election.
The “arrogance” of the “born to rule” attitude displayed by Senator McDonald during the ABC coverage of the Qld election says it all.
Since the disastrous Newman experiment very quickly went “belly-up”, Qld has actually had a very successful, sensible and progressive government thanks to Labor.
The new premier of Qld is placing a serious amount of trust in many factors outside his control. Crisafulli and the new government will be given a “honeymoon” till Christmas and the signs of distress will be evident well before the next Federal election.
The Anastasia Palaszczuk “reign” is about to be given the recognition it deserved.
The future hard to see it is Meher.
‘Banquo911 says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:27 am
Greens loss has nothing to do with rat-baggery. You’d see a bigger statewide drop in primaries if that were the case.
Greens do poorer when the coalition does well overall because voters get spooked at the prospect of a wipeout and try to shore up Labor’s vote.
Greens also do poorer when labor does socialism because when labor is boldly progressive there is less need for a party to the left of labor.
If all you labor gushers think it’s the greens that have a lesson to learn in this, I expect you’ll be consigning yourselves to further oblivion. Its going to be harder to keep up the ’13 percenters’ line as your primary marches lower.
Lessons for the labor party – go left.
Lesson for the greens, seek preference deals I guess?
Lesson for the coalition – lying works.’
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I do find genuine cultist thinking interesting. It must have been useful in evolutionary terms once but it does seem to have passed its evolutionary use-by date.
There is a major surge to the right and Banquo’s advice to Labor. ‘Go Left’.
The Greens have, despite a massive effort stalled. Stuck on less than 10%. Banquo’s advice to the Greens ‘Seek preference deals.’
The LNP, KAP and PHON have, between them, absolutely tapped into the feelings of the electorate. Banquo’s advice to the LNP? ‘Stop lying.’
One of the commentators on the ABC (the chap sitting next to Kos) probably nailed the devil in the Greens detail. The Greens are picking up younger voters. But they are shedding older voters at the same rate.
If the Greens seriously want to be anything other than gadflies and blockers, Bandt, Shoebridge and the Mouth Almighty need to be managed out and saner heads like Hanson-Young need to be given the leadership role.
For bw the progressive cult is over, long live the cult of labor.
I’d love to see Hanson young and waters take a bigger role in the party, but that’s all party machination stuff that I’m not interested in.
Good to see we saw the real Steven Miles last night.
Nothing but a union thug.
I think people assuming Crisafulli will be another Campbell Newman are deluding themselves, I think he’s probably smarter than that, but time will tell – if the bloke can’t fix the crime crisis to an extent that satisfies people in regional centres like Townsville, then he’s got issues in 4 years time, but I doubt very much that he’ll be gutting the public service as Newman did between 2012-15.
If my calculations are correct, Labor now hold only 2 seats in regional Qld, Gladstone and Cairns. You’d assume their lead in Bundaberg will be overturned on pre polls and postals. That’s a really poor result, and it doesn’t bode well for federal Labor in the corresponding areas – seats like Flynn, Herbert, Hinkler, Leichhardt.
They got punished in outer metropolitan Brisbane too!
I guess the pluses from a Labor point of view was seeing off the Greens in inner city Brisbane, possibly holding on to the seat of Gaven, and retaining a fair sized opposition containing some good performers.
Steven Miles’s speech set entirely the wrong tone, I’m not sure if either he was trying to keep the Labor faithful optimistic or he had read the results entirely inaccurately, but it looked bad to me, and it undid all the decent work he did during the campaign.
My hunch is the next Labor leader will be Shannon Fentimen, and Cameron Dick as Deputy Opposition Leader.
Listen I may have said a thing last night that had people concern I like to share my appreciating saying thanks for being turned but I’m fine there’s always next election
As for the Greens, again they got what they deserved for condoning anti-semitism and encouraging much of the fracturing of social cohesion we’ve seen since October 7 last year.
If there is a silver lining for federal Labor out of this, it is the seat of Griffith – Max Chandler-Mather can be beaten, but it would require the LNP preferencing Labor over the Greens.
I reckon Dutton has a good chance of regaining Brisbane and Ryan for their side.
QLD will survive a LNP government just like we have survived governments of all colors over the years. Congratulations to the LNP they survived the late rally and will end up with a comfortable win.
Miles fought a good campaign but was ordinary in defeat.
Quentin: glad you’re OK mate, election results aren’t worth getting suicidal about, it’s the natural flow of democracy. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, we can’t always win in life.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/27/queensland-election-late-counting-3/#comment-4390751
Federal drag, centrists? “… a reformist Federal Government could actually make a significant difference, and might win some kudos for the Prime Minister who took it on.” Indeed, let’s see an end to a pathologically unambitious small target strategy for a centrist federal term 2.
That now makes NT, QLD (ALP in power 30 out of most recent 35 years), and to some extend TAS as right of centre. When’s the next territory/ state election? At middle tier gov, it seems tide is going out for centrist, blue Libs lites.
“At 2024 Election LNP 51 ALP 35 KAP 4 Green 2 IND 1 …”, 7/ 93 seats not with the major parties (less than 10 percent).
Unsurprised QLD isn’t big on unreal diversity, benevolent racism, affirmative action. (30 years back in time, give or take an hour.)
Let’s see what incoming premier has learnt from the campaign, Campbell Newman tide out.
Campaign issues.
Noted the earlier post on health.
Road services everywhere (as opposed to $0.50 fares utility in metro).
Wardens, jailers, convicts rerun?
Metro, regional.
Hmmm, any takes on KAP?
Or that just part of the regional and beyond/ FNQ story.
Not surprised Greens would do worse in QLD compared to – say -VIC. Still there was chatter about not 2 but 6 seats.
I didn’t mind the speech on a whole other than the absence of a true concession (labor is meant to be the party of due process, and institutions). It was a keep the faith speech, trying to sure up support for their bold new platform.
Decision to not concede seems like it was based on numbers 30 to 60 minutes before the speech was given and then they just stopped paying attention to the numbers. I dunno though, weird choice
Banquo911 @ #41 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 7:52 am
Time to stop playing nice with “institutions” I reckon. Play hard from the word go, only be restrained by the letter of the law. That’s what the other side does.
Don’t know much about game theory, but I think I read somewhere that early pushback is the key
Democracy Sausage: “…if the bloke can’t fix the crime crisis to an extent that satisfies people in regional centres like Townsville, then he’s got issues in 4 years time…”
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Mebbe. But if that’s the biggest issue in 2028, then Labor will need to convince the electorate that they genuinely want to do something about the issue and have some sort of strategy for doing so. And I think that’s going to be a struggle for them.
What they need will is some significant stuff-ups by the Crisafulli Government in areas such as health or roads. Or internal bickering over abortion or some other such divisive issue.
Failing that, it ought to be at least two terms for the LNP. And they’ll possibly try to strengthen their position by bringing back OPV (although there will perhaps be risks to them in doing that in relation to the One Nation and KAP votes).
Democracy Sausage @ #35 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 7:45 am
It’s not a question of Crisafulli being dumb or not. The LNP has a collective stupidity which never fails to come back and bite them
‘VCT Et3e says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:52 am
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/27/queensland-election-late-counting-3/#comment-4390751
Federal drag, centrists? ….’
==============
The far left is never, ever short of delusions, feeding those delusions and giving delusional advice to all and sundry.
The Queensland result is a huge lurch to the right.
The far left ‘solution’?
A lurch to the left by Labor!
anquo911 says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:41 am
For bw the progressive cult is over, long live the cult of labor.
I’d love to see Hanson young and waters take a bigger role in the party, but that’s all party machination stuff that I’m not interested in.’
===========================
I am not quite sure why you are ignoring the substance of my posts. It is what cultists do, I suppose.
The LNP promised to get rid of preferential voting during the campaign.
I assume they will now install first past the post instead.
How would this election outcome have changed had it been a first past the post election?
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 8:45 am
Listen I may have said a thing last night that had people concern I like to share my appreciating saying thanks for being turned but I’m fine there’s always next election.
_____________________
Well that’s good to know. Life goes on.
As we have seen with Albanese, there is not much difference between the 2 parties once they get into govt anyway.
Saw Amanda Stoker interviewed on ABC last night, elected for five minutes, and she’s already gone off the rails and off message, saying maybe they should consider nuclear, Libs are gonna rue the day they opened the door for her, she should take up US citizenship, the MAGA Republican head cases would love her.
BW not first past the post. Optional Preference Voting.