Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
Friday evening
Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.
The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.
That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.
Thursday evening
Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.
Wednesday evening
What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.
Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.
The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.
Tuesday evening
Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.
My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.
In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.
Sunday evening
Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.
That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:
Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.
Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.
Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.
Saturday evening
After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.
Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.
It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.
This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.
Gee Boerwar, did you not follow the main election promises?
LNP are simply going to revert it back to what it was before Labor late at night with zero consultation changed it to compulsory preferential voting.
It is going back to voluntary preferential voting, so you can if you want preference, or you can choose not to. Funny that labor was such pro choice during the campaign they are against people having my vote my choice when it no longer suited their aims of winning government.
A bit like Labor were not my body, my choice with covid vaccinations.
ajm 9.09am
[It’s not a question of Crisafulli being dumb or not. The LNP has a collective stupidity which never fails to come back and bite them]
Very good!
‘davidwh says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 9:33 am
BW not first past the post. Optional Preference Voting.’
===================
Thanks.
It was certainly a bad night for the Greens, but I think too much is being made about their national image having a negative impact on their vote. Would have thought a more left wing policy agenda from Labor would have been the bigger factor in Labor winning back votes from the Greens, but it seems like the mainstream media does not want to frame it this way.
‘Jolly Jumbuck says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 9:33 am
Gee Boerwar, did you not follow the main election promises?
….’
===================
Not from the Coalition. The most comprehensive set of lies during an election campaign in recent Australian history came from the Abbott/Hockey Grand Ambush.
We have since been informed by Credlin that they KNEW they were lying big time in another election.
OTOH, horses for courses. There is no particular reason to believe that the Right is sincere except when it comes to sentencing 10 year olds as ‘adults’ for ‘adult’ crimes. The nasty, brutish, vicious intent is on-song. The sheer self-defeating stupidity in that will become evident over the following decades.
DS and AJM, if the LNP pursue their normal signature policies of poor service delivery, public service cuts, assets sales and relaxed environmental protections ( green tape as they call it) their popularity will wear thin pretty quick. I think they will take things easy prior to the federal elections but rip rip woodchip after that and their first budget . I am a little disappointed that the Labor seat count diminished over the course of the night but if you’d told me six months ago Labor would get 30-35 seats and hung on to most of the ministers I would have taken that happily.
‘mj says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 9:43 am
It was certainly a bad night for the Greens, but I think too much is being made about their national image having a negative impact on their vote. Would have thought a more left wing policy agenda from Labor would have been the bigger factor in Labor winning back votes from the Greens, but it seems like the mainstream media does not want to frame it this way.’
=======================
We are guessing, of course. There is enough irritation and anger directed by Labor peeps at the Greens to maybe give the Greens pause for any other thought other than that there must be something wrong with Labor.
Rattenbury thought the extremism of the Feds had affected the ACT outcome for the Greens. A possibly useful thought came from one of the commentators on the ABC election night panel: the Greens are picking up young voters. They are shedding older voters. I would be particularly interested in knowing whether tactical Labor voters steered their preferences away from the Greens, as some of them did in the ACT election.
The LNP has a lot of minerals and coal industry taxes to enable them to generate a win win. If they are sensible about it.
“Greens do poorer when the coalition does well overall because voters get spooked at the prospect of a wipeout and try to shore up Labor’s vote.”
This sounds like the kind of bullshit feelpinion that Greens like.
You think Greens primary votes shift to Labor primary votes, which does absolutely nothing to help save any seats, to help Labor out in a wipeout?
It makes no sense and there’s no evidence for it.
A rising conservative tide causing Labor voters to shift to Coalition and some Greens voters to shift Labor or Coalition because their political priorities shifted, sure. But telling yourself they generously donated their primary vote to Labor but really they are Greens voters is “copium” as the kids say.
Princeplanet says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 9:45 am
DS and AJM, if the LNP pursue their normal signature policies of poor service delivery, public service cuts, assets sales and relaxed environmental protections
===========================================
There seems to be a complete lack of reflection from labor supporters why labor actually lost, and a complete delusional belief in why Queensland is where it is.
Here is a classic example of the delusions. The Lady Cilento Children’s hospital, as named by the LNP. Well Labor came into government with palaszczuk and that name had to go. Reasons given were is that the name was confusing people.
Then Palaszczuk and Miles then spruik a new policy of “satellite hospitals”. These new things being built here and there, and even in this campaign they were going on about “satellite hospitals”. Yet these places are nothing more then glorified GP clinics. They are not open 24 hours a day, they do not have emergency departments. They are not hospitals at all. But it is not confusing to call them hospitals according to miles, but the Lady Cilento Hospital name was confusing.
Keep the delusions alive. You would think Labor losing seats they have held for a hundred years would be something to reflect on as to why.
Princeplanet @ #55 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 8:45 am
That’s why I think the ALP needs to get stuck into them straight away and I think Miles was alluding to that in his speech last night.
Jolly Jumbuck @ #59 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 9:01 am
The name of the hospital was changed becasue it was named after someone with WWII fascist connections.
The satellite hospitals include quite a few functions (eg lower level emergency, renal dialysis, allied health, etc) that would otherwise be provided in a “normal” hospital and thus take pressure off the system.
Rattenbury thought the extremism of the Feds had affected the ACT outcome for the Greens. A possibly useful thought came from one of the commentators on the ABC election night panel: the Greens are picking up young voters. They are shedding older voters. I would be particularly interested in knowing whether tactical Labor voters steered their preferences away from the Greens, as some of them did in the ACT election.
———
I’m not saying perceptions of the Greens being obstructionist nationally didn’t have an impact but it’s just one factor amongst other factors, for example in ACT they were part of the govt coalition + greater competition from Indies and in Qld Labor decided to run on an unusually progressive platform.
Well could be worse, Poll Bludger comments have not yet got to the salty tears level of Reddit this morning. 😀
What sealed Miles fate:
The voters that charged in first thing Monday morning at the commencement of early voting two weeks ago “to see the backside of Steven Miles on his way out the door”.
Based on the wide difference between early voting and election day voting (on TPP), there was a huge change during the course of the formal campaign. Miles evidently ran an effective campaign and Crisafulli seemingly ran an especially poor campaign. But it was not enough. Miles’ fate was sealed.
The moral certitude of so many claiming unconditionally that the LNP will be only a one term government is jaw dropping. For supposedly intelligent people to make such claims is fantastical. It is cultish behaviour.
Who knows what’ll happen but I would think chances are this is a one term govt. It has no positive agenda and a leader that doesn’t inspire confidence among voters so it seems like the most likely scenario.
FUBARsays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 10:31 am
[The moral certitude of so many claiming unconditionally that the LNP will be only a one term government is jaw dropping. For supposedly intelligent people to make such claims is fantastical. It is cultish behaviour.]
To your credit FUBAR, “cultish behaviour” is your area of expertise.
And more particularly “fantastical cultish behaviour”.
You are totally unaware of your on-going foolishness!
@mj I would also argue that the reason for the collapse in Greens vote in their focus divisions is because of Labor’s effective scare campaign on abortion. Labor would have been telling soft Greens votes that their first preference might compromise the chances of Labor forming government and reproductive rights.
Another point that I would love Kos to look at, is the potential exodus of Greens voters from their inner-city residences out into middle and outer rings due to cost of living pressures. There seems to be cohorts of Greens voters that would have been young renters, that would have found it difficult during the cost of living crisis to continue remaining to rent in the inner city. The inner city throughout the Greens divisions are extremely expensive to rent and have a low vacancy rate. The high turnover in rental tenancy during this period probably forced a lot of these renters out into the middle and outer rings of Brisbane. In their place, more affluent professionals and families which would better support the LNP and ALP (and perhaps would be ripe for a teal).
We have also seen a surge in Greens votes in divisions in the outer ring on the Southside. Woodridge, Inala, Toohey. Unfortunately for the Greens, this has spread their support base to thin throughout the city.
goll says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 10:39 am
Perhaps you could provide an example? No?
Whether Mr Crisifulli is a one term leader is entirely in his and his colleagues hands. I experienced first hand the Cando term. Maybe it was the size of his victory that went to his and his leadership groups head but they immediately set about destroying any goodwill they’d achieved with extreme hubris. If Mr Crisifulli is able to put a dent in the NQ youth crime scene,not sell major assets,not go on public service purge, do something about this ramping problem and not reverse any social reforms like assisted dying and abortion decriminalisation well he might just ace it at the next election. On the minus side his mandate is very limited – he promised to target and fix youth crime, he reckoned bulk billing would be more widespread under him and ramping will disappear. All of these will be big asks and immediate improvement will be expected especially in far NQ. This is why some people on here are floating the possibility of a one term government especially if they decide to tinker with abortion laws.
SEQ Observer says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 10:50 am
@mj I would also argue that the reason for the collapse in Greens vote in their focus divisions is because of Labor’s effective scare campaign on abortion. Labor would have been telling soft Greens votes that their first preference might compromise the chances of Labor forming government and reproductive rights.
Another point that I would love Kos to look at, is the potential exodus of Greens voters from their inner-city residences out into middle and outer rings due to cost of living pressures. There seems to be cohorts of Greens voters that would have been young renters, that would have found it difficult during the cost of living crisis to continue remaining to rent in the inner city. The inner city throughout the Greens divisions are extremely expensive to rent and have a low vacancy rate. The high turnover in rental tenancy during this period probably forced a lot of these renters out into the middle and outer rings of Brisbane. In their place, more affluent professionals and families which would better support the LNP and ALP (and perhaps would be ripe for a teal).
We have also seen a surge in Greens votes in divisions in the outer ring on the Southside. Woodridge, Inala, Toohey. Unfortunately for the Greens, this has spread their support base to thin throughout the city.
_________
Agree. This hypothesis is worth exploring. Not just here. It would have ramifications across multiple capital cities.
No denying or sugar coating the fact that Labor performed badly outside of Brisbane/SEQLD – they now only have Gladstone and Cairns left by my count, and maybe Bundaberg too if the counting to come went the way of Tom Smith(which is probably unlikely). Michael Healy in Cairns must be a really effective campaigner, he’s held the swing against Labor to 3%, when it was so much higher in the seats near him, or the Miles campaign machine put all their resources into Cairns to protect a minister.
I was disappointed but not surprised Rob Skelton didn’t hold on in Nicklin, on the other hand pleased my mate Mark Bailey won pretty well in Miller.
Federal Labor haven’t yet completed all their preselections in Qld, so perhaps one or two defeated state Labor MPs might get another shot at getting back into office federally? Mind you, I think Labor at a federal level in Qld in 2025 will be lucky to maintain the 5 seats they already hold, I see zero prospect of them picking up something like Forde or Leichhardt.
If the definition of a satellite hospital is a hospital that doesn’t do very much, can’t fix very much, that’s what we’ve already got in places like Gladstone Rockhampton and Mackay.
We were hoping we might actually get a real hospital, like I was use to in regional NSW and Victoria. Instead ive been having to go to Brisbane for everything. Same stuff my dad could get looked after locally.
A few general remarks – thanks like always to William for his sterling work last night,and the general moderating job he does all the time maintaining this site.
Princeplanet – I’ve enjoyed the interaction with you especially mate, let’s keep it going on the other threads, the same goes for the blokes and ladies here who always have good contributions to make.
Labor lads – I’d be up for a beer or two anytime with you boys.
Oh well, on to the next election, the monumental one, the one that could determine the future of the world.
And that Courier Mail poll of a few weeks ago, from the pre polling places, the horror one – it was right on the money. I knew it last night when those pre poll votes started being added to the count, and the Labor leads in quite a few seats started vanishing, the same thing happened in the NSW election in March 2023, a bloke in his 50s like me who’s seen many an election in his time knows it all too well – pre polls and postals always favour the Tories. And Labor in many instances is shit poor in regards to postal vote campaigning, for whatever reason(the cost etc). Reportedly in many Qld seats, there weren’t Labor volunteers at pre poll centres to hand out HTVs, that wouldn’t have helped either. Yeah, I know, it’s hard to get people to volunteer for those activities when they’ve got jobs or uni or they’d rather be somewhere else.
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/news/2024/09/23/construction-progressing-on-wacol-youth-remand-centre/
New detention centres opening soon. Plenty of space if they can be staffed. Pity it wasn’t a vote winner.
Thanks, DS. Allow me to take the opportunity once again to hustle for donations, of which there haven’t been too many lately relative to the work I’ve been putting in. Most of this was on live results that eventually started working about 45 minutes into the count — including on developing my new 3CP model, which should be good to go for the WA and federal elections. The looming SA by-election for Black should be good for a test run.
Democracy Sausage I don’t mind sharing a beer with a Labor faithful. 🙂
Davidwh – by all means mate, anytime, and diverse range of opinions are always good, maybe we’ve become far too tribal in recent years, we stay in our own echo chambers and we don’t consider the contrary view on things.
Anyway, my pick for the next Qld Labor leader is Shannon Fentimen, with Cameron Dick as deputy, and then they could come up with a shadow cabinet of former ministers who held their seats, and maybe one or two new ones. Miles disqualified himself last night, it’d be actually preferable if he stepped down from Murumba in the next 18 months.
I think too it’s a great shame Bart Mellish lost, I hope they can give him another opportunity down the track, federally or state. The irony of this – the bloke who presided over the 50 cent transport fares implementation, the policy which arguably saved some Labor seats in inner Brisbane, is now out of parliament.
I guess STARS is one of the satellite hospitals- I hear some good things about this model.
Thank God, someone started the decanonisation of the Cilentos, long overdue
(DYK a warrant for the arrest and internment of Raphael Cilento, Director General of Q Health was issued in 1942 due to his prominence in the fascist Dante society. A photo of him giving the Roman salute at a society function existed but has been lost from the archives. Attorney General Evatt intervened to prevent his internment as the embarrassment for the Q government would have been too great. But he was kept under close rein until he was eased into a UN position in Palestine where he caused further mischief)
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/queensland-2024-postcount.html
My Queensland 2024 postcount thread . Intro post is up with Mulgrave unrolled, others to be unrolled this afternoon.
Posted by Kos Samiras earlier today, really pertinent:
One upon a time, long term Labor government’s would lose to the LNP/Coalition via a predictable pathway.
Loss of middle class electorates and in some states, like QLD, regional electorates that have historically been an electoral barometer.
Labor is now losing elections via a different pathway. Loss of low income electorates, some which they have held for over a century.
QLD’s Labor did better in seats with higher incomes, and education levels. Even in Brisbane, it performed well in seats like Mansfield, once considered as a typical middle class electorate that goes with the government.
Similar patterns can be observed in other states, like Tasmania and Victoria.
This trend was also evident in the 2022 federal election, and it’s likely to accelerate, mirroring similar shifts occurring across Western democracies.
The problem for Labor is you cant win elections by relying on inner to middle urban electorates.
Is Labor awake to this problem? Based on Steven Miles’ speech last night, it’s more akin to being asleep at the wheel.
SEQ Observer says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 10:50 am
I would also argue that the reason for the collapse in Greens vote in their focus divisions is because of Labor’s effective scare campaign on abortion. Labor would have been telling soft Greens votes that their first preference might compromise the chances of Labor forming government and reproductive rights.
Another point that I would love Kos to look at, is the potential exodus of Greens voters from their inner-city residences out into middle and outer rings due to cost of living pressures…
———
Interesting points, they do sound like probable factors in this result.
Think the Greens also need to consider to what extent their federal tactics, rightly or wrongly, are making them be perceived as obstructing the govt’s agenda. If it is a big factor it’s either not worth pursuing this line, or they need to be able to do a better job at arguing why they’re not waving through govt policy.
Democracy Sausage, I completely agree with your comments on ALP campaigning around early voting, at least locally. The LNP locally completely smashed the ALP, particularly in the early phases. We had a very big early vote in Mackay, much of the ALP campaign seemed to be built around when Steven Miles was visiting town. The LNP went early and was very “local”, the ALP was late and very focused on the Premier.
To often we get caught (particularly on a site like this) up the big narratives around a campaign that appear in the newspapers and evening news. But ultimately, all politics really is local and that’s particularly true in regional Queensland. I was reading all kinds of stuff here and in the news about what was apparently going to determine the election. Yet on the ground here, almost nobody was talking about those things. People on the ground were talking about stuff that was generally intensely local, and the reputation of the local candidates. In fact, it’s perhaps at the level of local candidates were the LNP had the biggest wins over the ALP. The LNP had generally excellent local candidates in place early, the ALP candidate selection was a shamozzle.
The ALP campaign may have dominated the airwaves. The LNP completely dominated them with their ground game. We’ve got an 18% swing to show for it.
Yep, 18%. In a seat that has voted ALP for more than a century and which survived the Tarago election.
Amazing but mostly hidden result from yesterday for Labor vs Greens grind
In Stretton, aside from the overall swing in first pref votes, in Kuraby booth there was +31% swing to Greens, -26% for Labor and Greens winning plurality of 41% of booth primary.
So still looks like a change of +1 to 71% in 2PP for very safe Labor booth but underneath is massive shift from Labor to Greens PV
Not sure why, but Stretton is apparently highest Arabic speaking electorate in Qld (as WB’s guide states) but also Chinese, Korean and other Asian immigrants in there
Over whole electorate roughly +11 % for Green, -11% for Labor on election day primary vote
Seems the Greens target seats were also strongly targeted by the zionist backed, also Advance supported, anti-Greens campaign
Seems like a range of issues across different electorates
Good on ya Davidwh, enjoy the historic win ,you are a gentleman. Let’s hope for both Labor and LNP supporters that this government despite containing many of the Cando era faces will have learnt from that time and pursue whatever policies they have outlined with thoughtfulness and sensitivity .
The Wombatsays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 11:51 am
What in your opinion was the reason for the 18% swing in and around Mackay ?
[The LNP went early and was very “local”]
Quoll @ #86 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 12:01 pm
Is that because the candidate was Abdulhamed Ahmed and the Mosque is in Kuraby?
What does this say about the prospects of a Muslim party?
Stretton is only 10% Muslim (source: https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/SED30081) so if you assume the Greens vote was driven largely by a pro-Gaza stance with no other option to go to it doesn’t bode well for Labor federally in seats with much higher proportions of Muslims.
The Wombat – the Labor sitting member in your seat had retired too, so the personal vote factor wasn’t at play this time, but wow, an 18% swing to the LNP in Mackay, shocking really.
It’s so true that Labor at an organisational level when it comes to pre poll and postal voting is very poor, whether it’s because they have trouble getting volunteers to hand out HTVs or they haven’t got the personnel to man every booth in an electorate.
Davidwh – congrats mate to you, enjoy the win, I think Crisafulli isn’t a bad bloke by any means, it’s the rest of his party I’d worry about, but hey, that’s for the future. I enjoy your contributions to Poll Bludger always.
meher baba at 8.03 pm
You advised: “If the Finocchiaro and Crisafulli governments have any sense, what they will be trying to do now is to make some changes to the criminal justice system to create a few “show trials” of the most egregious young thugs going around: fine upstanding citizens like the guy who stole PageBoi’s son’s car in Coffs Harbour.”
That sounds like a proposal for authoritarian window-dressing (pokazhuka in Russian).
Decisions about who to prosecute and how are made in Australia by Crown Prosecutors, not by political leaders. Elsewhere political interference may be chronic, but it is a very bad model.
If you think existing criminal laws are inadequate for dealing with PageBoi’s sad case, you should read the relevant laws or listen to some practitioners. The laws are not the problem.
‘mj says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 10:19 am
Rattenbury thought the extremism of the Feds had affected the ACT outcome for the Greens. A possibly useful thought came from one of the commentators on the ABC election night panel: the Greens are picking up young voters. They are shedding older voters. I would be particularly interested in knowing whether tactical Labor voters steered their preferences away from the Greens, as some of them did in the ACT election.
———
I’m not saying perceptions of the Greens being obstructionist…’
==================
‘I’m not saying the Greens being obstructionist…’ fixed it for you.
Currently well over $20 billion in federal government program spending plus half a dozen major pieces of legislation are being blocked by the Greens Extremists. Not a perception. Just practical reality.
Samara’s points outline above are, IMO, on the money.
The Right has managed to persuade lower paid workers that it really cares for them by doing the old unicorn of bashing migrants and people of colour around the head. It is working for Trump. It worked for Wilders. It will work for Dutton. He cares for lower paid workers. He really does.
I assume that in due course the lower paid workers will actually realize that the Right is truly interested in only one thing: suppressing their wages. But their electoral prey do seem to be slow on the uptake.
‘Quoll says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 12:01 pm
Amazing but mostly hidden result from yesterday for Labor vs Greens grind
In Stretton, aside from the overall swing in first pref votes, in Kuraby booth there was +31% swing to Greens, -26% for Labor and Greens winning plurality of 41% of booth primary.
So still looks like a change of +1 to 71% in 2PP for very safe Labor booth but underneath is massive shift from Labor to Greens PV
Not sure why, but Stretton is apparently highest Arabic speaking electorate in Qld (as WB’s guide states) but also Chinese, Korean and other Asian immigrants in there
Over whole electorate roughly +11 % for Green, -11% for Labor on election day primary vote
Seems the Greens target seats were also strongly targeted by the zionist backed, also Advance supported, anti-Greens campaign
Seems like a range of issues across different electorates’
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Boutique politics gets you boutique results: less than 10%.
Dr D is this the first sign of the Australian Thermidor ?
Dr Doolittle
If a government is going gangbusters about charging youth criminals as adults, it would be an extremely brave DPP who would want to push back against the tide.
And legislation has been changed in the NT and will be changed in Queensland. Whether or not that addresses the “problem” is a question on which views will strongly differ. For the Coalition governments, the “problem” – as I have already said – is to be seen to be getting some of the worst offenders in gaol and thereby out of the community.
On the whole I’m in favour of that, although of course it’s only dealing with the tip of the iceberg. But the public are expecting it. Woe betide any politician who doesn’t listen.
That’s democracy.
Mr Edsays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 3:03 am
Labor might finish holding 2 regional and rural seats, Cook and Gladstone. Libs hold practically every Gold and Sunshine Coast seat and NP hold just about every seat outside SEcorner. For every $100 per elector spent in SEQld, labor has spent over $150 elsewhere. Coal and gas production is winding down and mining companies are closing down mines. The renewable energy transition is seeing more and more funding for these projects happening in the bush. New Industry, jobs, population will help with a soft landing but this funding is being opposed and you must wonder why. The incoming Govt is anti hydro and wind power. They intend to make savings in the billions in this sector.
Sky news runs free to air in all those bush areas. So news every night is from Credlin and the other after dark hosts who think global warming is a beat up and coal is OK. Does the Murdoch press have influence to the extent that they can effect an election? ABC has been critical of Labor in many of its political commentaries.
Maybe there should be a rural Labor party formed. As the L and NP effectively do that, why not Labor? The employment and cost of living problems facing workers and their families is the same across the State.
Let’s see what comes up in the naval gazing that happens after every defeat.
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You might be overthinking it because labor’s been in power for 30 of 35 years and lost an election in difficult economic conditions. The Sunshine and Gold Coast are traditionally LNP and this election might just be liberals returning home to the LNP after a few years supporting labor and greens but labor does have to become more inclusive to broaden its base and that applies to the LNP because this result shows the liberals can pick up votes in the inner city.
Another point that I would love Kos to look at, is the potential exodus of Greens voters from their inner-city residences out into middle and outer rings due to cost of living pressures.
That’s it for the feral Greens renter voters.
Once they’re forced out of West End/ Highgate Hill/Dutton Park, it doesn’t get cheap again until you get to Kuraby, which is a old industrial wasteland on a train line 12 miles south of the CBD.
LNP lost nearby Calamvale to Labor on Greens preferences at the Council Elections in March for similar reasons, imo.
These places on on the extreme south edge of City of Brisbane where it meets the Logan badlands, still strong for Labor.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 12:45 pm
Samara’s points outline above are, IMO, on the money.
The Right has managed to persuade lower paid workers that it really cares for them by doing the old unicorn of bashing migrants and people of colour around the head. It is working for Trump. It worked for Wilders. It will work for Dutton. He cares for lower paid workers. He really does.
I assume that in due course the lower paid workers will actually realize that the Right is truly interested in only one thing: suppressing their wages. But their electoral prey do seem to be slow on the uptake.
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And what’s the left doing. Albo was quick to do gender policies for professional women but has ignored a royal commission and his government’s response was lukewarm. The left talks about inclusion and equality but only for its preferred groups but many of them are not natural labor voters.