Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
Friday evening
Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.
The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.
That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.
Thursday evening
Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.
Wednesday evening
What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.
Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.
The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.
Tuesday evening
Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.
My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.
In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.
Sunday evening
Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.
That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:
Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.
Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.
Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.
Saturday evening
After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.
Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.
It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.
This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.
Which exchange are they traded on?
davidwh
“The Coalition was always going to be competitive with a primary vote with a 4 in front.”
Yes of course, but that’s said with the benefit of hindsight. The UComms poll had a 3 in front for them and continuing to sink.
Frankly I think Newspoll may have got lucky on 1st choice votes rather than be brilliant, but that’s harder to divine for sure.
“The problem is the Greens vs Labor war, carried on incessantly by the Greens. . .”
And carried on incessantly or even more so by Labor supporters from my observation (being neither).
Labor supporters appear to brook no criticism from right nor left. Not all of them on here of course, but many of the most noisy and frequent contributors however.
Not sure if my neutral observation will help bring about a truce or merely stir up the hornets’ nest!
One thing I’m curious about is why the pre-polls counted today seem to have stopped the trend to LNP, or is it that Pollbludger’s results site had been a bit too brilliant for me in its 2PP projections at the end of last night? – creating the mere illusion that today’s pre-polls are less LNP-friendly?
Either way, the predictions by 1 or 2 yesterday that all the ‘in doubt’ seats would go Coalition seem very wide of the mark now. It’s still the Coalition projected leading in 53 seats, same as last night.
Bundaberg, for instance, has moved not nearly enough towards LNP today with the vote count up from (IIRC) only 50% last night to 87% now.
Worth noting, too, that LATE batches of postals will be factoring in the swing to Labor during the campaign so, whilst they may historically favour LNP, they will not do so more than usual.
BTsays I have my own opinion on that uComm Poll which I keep to myself. Personally I don’t believe the Coalition primary vote was ever below 40%. Newspoll got it pretty well spot on.
Not that we will ever know but there seemed to be a plan going around to make it seem the Coalition position was deteriorating even worse than the major polls were showing.
Hope I don’t bring on the wrath of William. 🙂
Oh and I did express that opinion on the Coalition primary vote prior to Saturday.
BTSays 9.07pm
[Not sure if my neutral observation will help bring about a truce or merely stir up the hornets’ nest!]
You’re asking for it ya “stick poker” !
Princeplanet @ #140 Sunday, October 27th, 2024 – 8:04 pm
Exactly. Plus the callow excuse trotted out by The Greens at every turn when questioned as to why they don’t attack the Coalition with the ferocity that they reserve for Labor, that the Coalition are ‘obviously’ much worse than Labor and will never do anything that is on The Greens’ agenda so they simply (and simplistically) need to attack Labor with all their might, should be giving them pause for thought after the Queensland election result. They are scaring voters away from them in disgust at their tactics and into the arms of Labor. And we thank them.
davidwh
Your prediction was certainly very close to the result. Well done.
BTsays there is still some doubt. The late postals maybe more favorable to Labor and tighten up seats like Pine Rivers and Pumicestone. However I doubt the Coalition could end with less than 50 seats now.
David unless there is a change with later voting patterns your 53 is probably spot on.
I think there would have been a hung parliament in the absence of the big difference between the lnp prepoll rates and polling booth votes on the day. Look at them in the seats listed here and you will see
BTSays
Frankly I think Newspoll may have got lucky
Newspoll gets lucky an awful lot doesn’t it? Like the voice, NSW, Victoria, South Australia… At some point you might want to just acknowledge that they know what they’re doing and are not merely “lucky”
As for last election preferences, it’s the standard way of calculating 2pp and over time is far superior than asking people to say how they direct preferences. Kevin Bonham has written about this https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/09/wonk-central-track-record-of-last.html
I apologise if what I said was harsh but calling polls “wrong” when every number they published was within their stated margin of error is in fact ignorant. Resolve and Newspoll were both excellent.
The greens problem is their base is Brunswick socialist and university campuses and there’s nothing wrong with that but if that’s your base you have to keep playing to it but overtime they picked up disinfected labor and liberal voters attracted to the greens on climate and the environment but those voters are different and so in Queensland we saw some former labor and liberals voters return home but this is why teals might replace greens in some places.
BTsays:
Worth noting, too, that LATE batches of postals will be factoring in the swing to Labor during the campaign so, whilst they may historically favour LNP, they will not do so more than usual.
I think the LNP might go backwards on the later Postals, and that if PrePoll was limited to Institutions and remote areas, Miles woulda made minority government.
That’s how big of a sleeper the abortion issue is.
I believe LNP federally have a short time to get their lines straight on this, because the Press Gallery are gunning for them from Monday.
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To illustrate, Labor didn’t have a story to sell, and were looking at a landslide defeat 26 days out, 9 days in Katter promised a Private Members Bill on repeal of the 2018 Abortion legislation, the acid was on Crisafulli for the next 17 days and he ended up just squeaking in.
Other than the NT and ACT what can the federal government do about the abortion issue?
Yes the earlier votes in prepoll were much more lnp friendly.and as the lnp will probably get 52/53 seats this made the difference between a majority and a hung parliament.
A hung parliament would have created problems for the lnp and Mr C especially as he promised not to try and govern in a minority
It end up being LNP 55-45. Hardly sneaking in
I think it’s going to fall a little lower than that for the LNP, a 2PP somewhere between 54 and 54.5% and an advantage in seats of more than 20. It’s not nearly as close as some commentators are implying. Miles may have reduced the LNP 2PP by a percentage point, but i don’t know that it changed the seat count very much. The ALP is now largely confined to being a Brisbane party, and that’s going to be very difficult for them to turn around. As I’ve said here many times before, I think the ALP may be a spent force in the regions. There only way back is the outer suburbs of Brisbane.
I think Miles was mostly successful in preaching to the converted. And the excitement at a rapidly closing election campaign mostly benefited the sellers of newspapers.
I have to give Steven miles credit from going from 58 to 42 to 54 to 46 it could have been way worse for Labor now the Liberal Party well if seat margins stay stay marginal there might be a case to the next election we trusted you you didn’t do what we want we’ll kick you out so David don’t ruin this you’re already off a bad foot so don’t do something dumb
Mexicanbeemer says:
“The greens problem is their base is Brunswick socialist and university campuses”
And yet, 3 of their 4 HoR seats are 1700km from Brunswick.
How does that work, eh? 🙂
David Christ-almighty …
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 11:42 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
“The greens problem is their base is Brunswick socialist and university campuses”
And yet, 3 of their 4 HoR seats are 1700km from Brunswick.
How does that work, eh?
——————-
Used Brunswick to describe their core base.
Other than the NT and ACT what can the federal government do about the abortion issue?
The SCOTUS ruled Roe v Wade unconstitutioal and sent it back to the States, yet it’s still a huge issue in the U.S. Presidential election.
Over here I’d say they could do a lot to remove whatever Medicare funding there is, and there’s probably a lot more, they’ve got all the money now.
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It’s a Labor standover.
How many people understand that the Feds can’t legislate a State Law away?
Think about it?
The threat was an LNP Government could repeal the 2018 Legislation.
How would that work in practice?
Well, the LNP will have a Conscience Vote, because they’re stupid.
Let’s say 10 of 52 vote repeal, Katter’s 5 vote yes [it’s their Bill], that leaves 32 short.
All ALP members sign a pledge to obey caucus decisions, caucus decides to vote with Katter, the law is repealed.
That’s the implied threat.
Now, provincial, rural and country electorates mostly didn’t buy it, but greater Brisbane mostly did.
———————-
Add Greater Brisbane, Greater Sydney and Greater Melbourne and Labor wins next year.
That’s how powerful the issue is, and part of what gives it that power is no one on the non Labor side wants to stand up for abortion on demand.
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 11:42 pm
You aren’t familiar with the Melbourne Brunswick/Uni Campus sociology?
In WA it’s Fremantle, Sydney = Newtown etc.
We are not the US. The federal government has no jurisdiction over abortion law. Easy scare campaign to fight.
Curious that the alp should have taken a national abortion policy to the 2019 election when they apparently have no jurisdiction :/
They can legislate on a national level for it if they wanted, but aren’t up for it. Having said that bringing the policy back for the campaign could be a way to force the issue.
Short of holding a referendum to give the federal government the power the federal government could only legislate on abortion with the support of the states.
This article explains the situation well.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/could-abortion-laws-ever-be-reversed-in-australia-like-in-the-us/zr7sfgx9s
Black Bulldog 9.57pm
I never mentioned Newspoll to you until after you did to me! So that’s ridiculous. They’re not the only poll in town and I have no interest in either bigging them up or diminishing them.
I’ve literally no idea what makes you so grumpy and rude. (Even if you are 100% in the right and there’s no nuance in the matter, which there is, there’s a lot of better ways to communicate what you communicated. It aids debate, instead of closing it down.)
P.S. Going by past preferences is only one way of allocating prefs, and is often, and increasingly, wrong as old tribal identities increasingly fade over the last decade. Of course they would be a good bit better than nothing if there was no other option.
This is not America. Abortion is not a top 30 issue Australians thinks or cares about.
davidwh: “Short of holding a referendum to give the federal government the power the federal government could only legislate on abortion with the support of the states.”
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A radically right wing Federal Government could impose its views on abortion on the ACT and the NT: as per how the Howard Government overturned the NT’s euthanasia legislation, even though it was a policy initiative of a conservative NT government. They could also perhaps try to impose some conditions on Medicare funding for public hospitals and private providers, which might end up making abortions more expensive.
Dovif
Tbf it’s just stopped the coalition from winning the election 60-40% 2pp or in the region of, so it shows it still has the potential to be an issue when a major change in the law has only occurred in recent years, with opposition to that change.
Caveat the above with the fact that if the LNP had fought a stronger campaign / pivoted better; and dealt with the issue more effectively when it came on the agenda, it wouldn’t have had anything like the impact on the result that it did.
The Mouth Almighty is a laugh a minute:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/28/labor-lost-queensland-election-partly-because-it-was-obsessed-with-the-greens-chandler-mather-says
Dutton is importing Trumpism to Australia. Trumpism is massively supported by anti-women including anti-women control over their bodies.
So, of course abortion is an issue in Australia.
Price, Joyce, the South Australian and Queensland Labor and LNP outfits have conspired to remind us that abortion is an issue in Australia.
Many in the media catastrophise Labor’s situation every time they lose an election. They will never win in regional areas again or the greens have taken over the inner city or Labor is being beaten in its suburban heartland etc. I just see these things as cycles. Greens did well in Brisbane in the Federal election but maybe not so well next time ( who knows). LNP has done extremely well in this state election in regional centres but with the crime scene in northern centres this result was predicted. Contrary to green complaints about Labor I saw Miles trying to fight this election in regional areas and hardly saw him in Brisbane. The greens adverts specifically targeted Miles as being no better than the LNP, which I thought was pretty insulting . I’m no green hater by any stretch but its probably poetic justice that they copped a swing in Brisbane after presenting this kind of angle. I’m a consensus type guy and find Max CMs antics and brinkmanship a bit tiresome maybe other voters do as well and the greens need to change tack? The LNP deserve credit for their single minded campaign and Crisifulli does seem a more moderate guy than Newman,his challenge will be to keep a lid on the more extreme elements in his party and to deliver on his crime agenda. The BCC is a good model for the LNP , they are very unobtrusive and not so ideologically driven. I guess this is because their responsibilities are non controversial but still this is what Brisbane people like. But make no mistake NQ voters will expect to see immediate improvement in the crime situation and this will be a hard one. As they say gratitude is the most fleeting of emotions and even if the LNP manage to stem this problem there will be others like homelessness, drug use, mental health that will be harder to solve by chucking them in the slammer.
to me at least It’s not hard to imagine a big turnaround in four years time especially considering at heart this was not a particularly bad government that’s just lost.
Abortion is an excellent wedge issue for the ALP. The departure of Joe Bullock and Jacinta Collins from the Senate meant that there are no longer any strong socially conservative voices within the ALP’s Federal team. There are undoubtedly still some social conservatives there – mostly SDA types – but they prefer to keep quiet about it. And the younger generation appear to be far more moderate in their attitudes (eg, Amanda Rishworth).
Meanwhile, the influence of Catholics and evangelicals within the Coalition parties continues to grow. And many of these people seem to feel that, whenever the abortion issue comes up, it is their moral obligation to fight hard for the pro-life cause, no matter what the political cost. So I reckon it’s an issue that’s going to keep on benefiting Labor.
If Dutton has any sense, he will attempt to get some sort of binding resolution across the Coalition parties that abortion will be entirely an issue for the state and territory governments. He needs to get the issue completely off the table, or else Labor will continue to torment him with it up to the election and beyond.
BW: “Dutton is importing Trumpism to Australia. Trumpism is massively supported by anti-women including anti-women control over their bodies.”
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What hysterical nonsense.
I can’t see any sign whatsoever that Dutton is importing Trumpism into Australia. Dutton seems to me to be just an old-fashioned right-wing Liberal, whose views on most issues are almost identical to those of John Howard. And his personal views on abortion seem to be relatively moderate.
And it’s also not clear to me that anti-abortion is an intrinsic part of Trumpism. Trump likes to take credit for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overthrew Roe vs Wade, but the truth is that he had almost nothing to do with it: it was mainly the work of the then Republican majority in the Senate. And now he’s more than a little uncomfortable about the consequences of that judgement and seems to be trying to walk away from it as much as he can.
There’s lots to criticise Dutton about, but trying to paint him as Trumpian and a rabid anti-abortionist is not consistent with the facts. It’s another instance of how people on the left have tended to underestimate Dutton and his potential appeal to middle of the road voters. He’s a very dangerous and canny opponent for Labor and, as we are increasingly seeing, Albo isn’t exactly a world-beater.
Trump likes to take credit for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overthrew Roe vs Wade, but the truth is that he had almost nothing to do with it: it was mainly the work of the then Republican majority in the Senate.
This is not true. What is true is that there is a grouping of ultraconservative individuals in The Federalist Society, which is lead by an ultraconservative Catholic by the name of Leonard Leo. They advocated directly to Trump and his Attorney General to replace retiring Supreme Court Justices with their chosen nominees. Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senators just did Trump’s bidding.
https://x.com/amyremeikis/status/1850121908911546833, embrace, extend, extinguish?
Statistics show that that about half of Australians profess to belong to some kind of religion and I would say many of these would be in name only. When I was growing up I would identify as presbyterian even though I’d never been anywhere near a church and now identify in older age as hardcore atheist. The LNP is now the home of many religious right wingers and hypocrites. I think support for reproductive rights runs at around the 70% mark in Australia yet we saw from the vote in Qld parliament a few years ago that the LNP almost unanimously rejected the decriminalisation bill.
meher baba says:
Monday, October 28, 2024 at 6:53 am
BW: “Dutton is importing Trumpism to Australia. Trumpism is massively supported by anti-women including anti-women control over their bodies.”
—————————————————————————–
What hysterical nonsense.
I can’t see any sign whatsoever that Dutton is importing Trumpism into Australia.
======================
What torpid blindness to what is happening. I wouldn’t expect you to, and you are not disappointing.
‘And it’s also not clear to me that anti-abortion is an intrinsic part of Trumpism. ‘
Try getting or providing an abortion in the US without ending up in jail.
More cult thinking from the Greens. It is noble. for the Greens to attack Labor and to try to take Labor seats but Labor should just ignore this, let the Greens take Labor seats, and bugger off somewhere else.
Translated: the Mouth Almighty is shouting himself out of a job.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/28/labor-lost-queensland-election-partly-because-it-was-obsessed-with-the-greens-chandler-mather-says
VCT: Amy knows a lot about Qld politics. I would often see her out the front of the executive building interviewing some LNP minister or another during the Cando times. She is absolutely spot on about the result in her tweet. I have no idea what Max and Berkman are on about. I did not see one ad from Labor criticizing the greens yet many green ads excoriating Labor for coal mines and being the same as the LNP. Greens need to become more savvy and not be in perpetual revolution. Albo is spot on to say they need to stop the endless blocking and start negotiating to get reasonable progressive outcomes. The green member for south Brisbane won in 2020 on LNP preferences she was always going to struggle when LNP preferences Labor and this decision was nothing to do with Miles.
Anyone who thinks Miles will be leader by 2028 is kidding themselves, He will resign in less than 18 months and pave way for Dick or Fentiman.
He is staying on FOR NOW
Princeplanet
Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:17 am
That’s a real partisan reading of the Green/ALP relationship with no nuance.
It can just as easily be said that Albo needs to take a more constructive role in negotiating with the cross bench (fwiw, Albo specifically doesn’t call for greens to negotiate, presumably because that would involve him giving ground, just to ‘stop blocking’).
Greens losing south Brisbane was pretty easy to see coming, though greens had a much smaller swing against in that seat than most seats held by labor. That combined with retaining their state wide primary I think the greens can feel much more comfortable in their position than labor.
Re remeikis’ tweet, I think you’ve misread it. She is effectively saying all should give the greens less airtime. If we look at PB as a microcosm, (as with your post here) the greens are introduced to conservation most frequently by labor stans.
If labor spent less time crapping on about how bad the greens are, and just talking about what they’re doing they’d perform better. This means if they’re having trouble passing a bill in the senate, saying how they’re going to get it passed instead of having a bitch.
Banquo: I think you’ve misread my comment as well. I couldn’t see the percentage in attacking Labor. Later in the campaign you had some pretty vicious LNP ads targetting the greens yet somehow they are blaming Miles. Honestly as someone who has no beef whatsoever with the greens I just think the tactics they use are misguided, naive and that Max is heading for a loss unless he changes course. You can take that or leave it but I have no ill will towards greens just that they ought to understand who the real enemy is.
Prince: you could be right about MCM, but I don’t think thats related to tactics or policy. He’s just unlikable.
Re tactics I would prefer greens spent less time talking about labor, and more about policy (same opinion of labor). Just say what needs to happen to get xyz bill passed and leave the rhetoric out of it. As I don’t carry a card (nor even vote 1 green) I don’t suspect my opinion carries any weight.
The only ads I see are billboards/digital signs and it’s pretty hard for those to be vicious, so can’t really comment on who’s attacking who in ads etc, which is what drove my view that green ads were mostly just about their own policies. If they have attack ads on TV or radio I don’t know about them.
meher baba:
Monday, October 28, 2024 at 6:53 am
[‘BW: “Dutton is importing Trumpism to Australia. Trumpism is massively supported by anti-women including anti-women control over their bodies.”
—————————————————————————–
What hysterical nonsense.
I can’t see any sign whatsoever that Dutton is importing Trumpism into Australia.’]
That’s as naive as your support for “show trials” to deter youth crime, among your other suggested remedies. Something must be in the air down south for you to produce this sort of analysis. Granted, Dutton’s not Trump but give him an inch & he’ll take a yard were he to make it to the Lodge.
Daniel – It is kind of wise to leave the old if still relatively fresh ex-premier in place for a while and then do the old switcharoo 24 to 18 months out from the next election.
But if it gets to two years in and LNP are ballsing up badly (which is always a possibility), it would a major advantage to have a steady pair of hands as the alternative.
Most 2PP result of 54.5-45.5 are considered landslide. Yes an ALP scare campaign and destroying the budget and showing zero fiscal responsibility might have returned some gullible people back to voting for the ALP. But most of those would have voted for the ALP normally anyway.
Come the federal election. It will be about cost of living. Why Australia has one of the highest inflation rate in the world and why interest rate is so high. Getting rid of the irresponsible QLD ALP will help the ALP federally. But the Federal ALP is equally irresponsible as is the Victorian carcass of the ALP