This site has cautioned against getting too excited one way or another about movements inside of a percentage point on polling aggregates or of a few points on probability forecasts, such distinctions more than likely to be quite a bit smaller than the ultimate overall polling error. Nonetheless, it presumably means at least something that Donald Trump has gone from slightly behind to slightly ahead in the forecast models of Nate Silver, The Economist and FiveThirtyEight. Going back to my original point though, Silver makes the following observations:
One thing that might be counterintuitive is that even a normal-sized polling error — polls are typically off by around 3 points in one direction or the other — could lead to one candidate sweeping all 7 key battleground states. In our simulations yesterday, which account for the possibility of a correlated polling error, the most common outcome was Trump winning all 7 swing states: this happened 24 percent of the time. And the next most common was a Harris sweep, which occurred in 15 percent of simulations …
The baseline assumption of the Silver Bulletin model is that while the polls could be wrong again — and in fact, they probably will be wrong to some degree — it’s extremely hard to predict the direction of the error. Empirically, there’s basically no correlation in polling error from one cycle to the next one. And pollsters could be overcompensating if they’re worried about missing low on Trump again or if the 2020 polling error was primarily caused by COVID: Democrats being more likely to “socially distance” and having more time to respond to polls. There are prominent examples of this, such as in the 2017 UK election, where pollsters put a heavy finger on the scale for Tories but Labour beat its polls instead.
Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.
A Halloween quote from Shakespeare for all of you to contemplate:
Fair is foul, and foul is fair.
Kamala Harris is live from the Ellipse in 2 hours.
I bet she doesn’t tell her followers to go down to the Capitol and fight like hell! 😐
Fubar,
Yes MSNBC is pro-Democrat, it doesn’t hide that fact.
Just like CNN are pro-Democrat, FoxNews is pro-Republican.
You think the media don’t have any bias and are meant to be impartial. What planet are you on?
Do you think the media in Oz is impartial? Of course not, just see the first few political stories on any news service.
Centre has outed himself as a MAGA supporter – not a shock revelation.
George W Bush’s daughter Barbara has endorsed Kamala Harris, her father on the other hand is staying silent.
Trump described his rally at Madison Square Garden as a “lovefest” – oh, he loves the overt racism and sexism tossed at Harris and others who oppose him.
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/10/29/richest-man-most-powerful-man-in-world-elites/
Trump claims he has never met Tony Hinchcliffe – I somehow think Trump approved the entire speakers list for that MAGA event.
Centre says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:49 pm
Interesting that US treasury bond yields have risen and the US Dollar has strengthened ahead of the election.
The markets believe that both parties will spend, but Donald has guaranteed that inflation will fall. That can only mean further tightening for low to middle Americans and tax cuts for the top.
Yet Donald leads, go figure!
So Donald has guaranteed inflation will fall.
Yeh, as if the markets and economists think that. No, they don’t.
Where does Donald lead? In the betting markets? Yeh, and they have got that wrong before.
‘Jaeger says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 6:55 am
“Of course. Up is Down. Black is White. Hate is Love.”
War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.
— George Orwell, 1984’
================
With the Trump rider:
‘Hate is love.’
Trump doesn’t need to have ‘met’ anyone to approve of their message. Pure dissembling from the obfuscation king.
Democracy Sausage @ #907 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 7:25 am
Whether he’d met him or not, he still hasn’t denounced Hinchcliffe’s words about Latinos, Blacks and Puerto Ricans.
The simple fact it was Donald’s Rally and therefore he is accountable for every speaker at said rally. No ifs, no buts.
As usual, he wants to blame someone else. Are we surprised? No.
No sign of herding with these Arizona polls today..
ARIZONA Data_Orbital poll:
Trump 50% (+8)
Harris 42%
Stein 1%
Oliver 1%
550 LV, 10/26-28
ARIZONA Senate
Data_Orbital poll:
Kari Lake (R) 45.2% (+0.7)
Ruben Gallego (D) 44.5%
550 LV, 10/26-28
Arizona Polling:
Pres:
Harris (D): 46%
Trump (R): 45%
Sen:
Gallego (D): 51%
Lake (R): 36%
TrueDot/U. Arizona / Oct 20, 2024 / n=846
ARIZONA CNN poll:
Harris 48% (+1)
Trump 47%
Oliver 2%
Stein 1%
LV, 10/21-26
Watch out for the “red mirage” and the “blue shift” on election night. Republicans tend take an early lead as counting finishes first in less populated counties, which tend to lean Republican. The Democrat share improves as urban counties are declared. This is apparently well-known to those who closely follow US elections, but the Republicans used it in 2020 to support their lies about “the steal”.
It will happen again this time and the Republicans will try to pull the same trick:
https://youtu.be/5XEQ_7zZ-bw?si=d66y92TWBV1J7rVp
But todays national polls have the farm gate well and truly locked, with the participants milling around inside…
Presidential Polling:
Harris (D): 49%
Trump (R): 47%
Angus Reid / Oct 27, 2024 / n=1928
Presidential Polling:
Harris (D): 50%
Trump (R): 47%
Morning Consult / Oct 27, 2024 / n=8807
Presidential Polling:
Harris (D): 48%
Trump (R): 47%
TIPP Insights / Oct 28, 2024 / n=1291
Presidential Polling:
Harris (D): 50%
Trump (R): 46%
Clarity Campaign Labs / Oct 23, 2024 / n=1314
More than 50 million Americans have already voted (either in person or by mail) a week ahead of Election Day, according to the University of Florida’s early-vote tracker.
Roughly 39% of those voters are registered Democrats. About 36% are registered Republicans.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Confessions @ #913 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 7:38 am
Shouldn’t the buck stop with him? If he doesn’t believe that then he hasn’t got what it takes to be POTUS.
Interesting TIPP poll, sprocket_. Considering their allegiances.
C@t
A flood of polls today of all stripes – more blue than red on this list
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Let’s see in about three days when the polls are entirely taken after the New York rally.
I bet that they show no significant change or Trump continues gaining.
Associated Press article published in Daily kos
Man who attacked Nancy Pelosi’s husband gets life without possibility of parole
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280756/-Man-who-attacked-Nancy-Pelosi-s-husband-sentenced-to-life-on-state-charges?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
Harris blasts billionaires in ‘Trump’s club’ for blocking endorsements
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280638/-Harris-blasts-billionaires-in-Trump-s-club-for-blocking-endorsements?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
“Vice President Kamala Harris said on Tuesday that the decision by The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times against endorsing a presidential candidate was disappointing and a sign of billionaires attempting to curry favor with Donald Trump.
The decision by the owners of the outlets comes as Trump has renewed threats of retribution against media entities that accurately report on him and his campaign.
Harris’ remarks came during an interview on “The Breakfast Club” radio show. Host Charlamagne tha God asked Harris to react to the announcements from the two newspapers.
“It’s billionaires in Donald Trump’s club,” Harris said. “That’s who’s in his club. That’s who he hangs out with. That’s who he cares about.”
“NPR reported that the backlash against the Post has led to at least 200,000 subscriptions being canceled. That represents about 8% of its subscriber base. Molly Roberts and David Hoffman, both members of the Post’s editorial board, have resigned from the board in protest.
“I believe we face a very real threat of autocracy in the candidacy of Donald Trump. I find it untenable and unconscionable that we have lost our voice at this perilous moment,” Hoffman wrote.
Editor-at-large Robert Kagan and editorial contributor Michele Norris also resigned from the paper, citing the decision.”
Sprocket, C@tmomma and others
We know there was not much polling from Montana
MT-SEN: Tester tied in recent poll
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280752/-MT-SEN-Tester-tied-in-recent-poll?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“MSU-Billings poll showing a 43-43 race, meaning a lot of undecideds, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tester was managing to seal the deal.”
Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
MT-SEN poll has a tied 43-43 race with Tester getting 13% of the GOP vote and winning Indies by double digits. When he won in ’18, he got 7% of the GOP vote and won Indies by 5. This is a very good poll for Tester.
ScromoII @ #922 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 8:20 am
Yeah because Trump is such a nice guy who deserves to win. 🙄
Sometimes I’m in awe of the ability of writers to express issues in ways that are well beyond me.
Men like Trump, damaged, frightened, pathologically insecure, resistant to love and therapy, can relieve their pain only by inflicting pain on others. Compassion is a foreign concept to him. There is no curiosity, no wonder, no kindness, no connection with the hearts of others, no lightness of spirit. In their place are ego, rage, resentment, impulsiveness and cruelty. Those who are not at peace with themselves destroy other people’s peace
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/29/donald-trump-greatest-feat-ordinary-americans-capitalism-republican
Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
Incidentally, the last Emerson poll of MT-SEN (10/25) had Tester up 57-41 among Indies, 98-1 among Dems, and 9-91 among GOP. Those crosstabs make MT winnable if the Dem + Indie share is around 65% of the electorate or higher.
Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
The number of undecided Indies is slightly higher than the number of undecided Republicans. In the ’18 exit polls 45% of voters identified as Indies, only 29% GOP and 25% Dem. If Tester gets that kind of mindset in the electorate, he probably wins
Thank you, Dogs Brunch. 🙂
I’m in awe of talented wordsmiths too.
CNN: Harris leads 53%-44% among Arizonans who have already voted
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Their(CNN) analysis of the early voting numbers is as follows..
Both states have robust early and mail-in ballot voting, and according to the poll, 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada say they have already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans have cast ballots so far than registered Democrats. In Arizona, that still translates into a Harris advantage among those banked votes (53% of those who say they already voted support her compared with 44% for Trump), but in Nevada, those who’ve already voted tilt in the former president’s favor (52% Trump to 46% Harris).”
Exactly. This is the point of deviant ‘Christians’:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/29/donald-trump-greatest-feat-ordinary-americans-capitalism-republican
Ven @ #925 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 7:58 am
It’s not though. MT is 54% Dem + Indie right now. According to TargetSmart, anyways.
A longish 1 hour discussion by people who understand the presidential transition very well – speculating on what will happen if Harris wins, Trump wins – or if it is close/disputed.
One key change from last time is the Presidential Transition Improvement Act passed in 2021 – but that doesn’t address it all
Geek factor 9/10
https://www.youtube.com/live/Yw7qMlL8Utw?si=8vMmd7_oJphFn92z
Thanks DB. Beautifully articulated.
https://x.com/owenwntr/status/1851357634437234895, campaign calculus
Survey USA – Minnesota
Harris: 51%
Trump 43%
2020 – Biden +7%
https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/1851377727737098403
You have not been around here very long, have you.
My post was in response to the continual complaints about Newscorp, Skynews, and The Australian not being “unbiased”.
I don’t think I can hold my breath for another week.
As I’ve stated previously. USA election in a nutshell.
Gender war
Race war
And billionaire class war
Thankfully women and the minority groups will get the dems over the line.
No one has ever taken the products of News Corp to be anything but reactionary propaganda. The really truly bizarre thing in this country is that the reactionaries are being subsidised by the Commonwealth to publish bullshit day-in/day-out.
This country would be much the better without the baleful influence of Murdoch, Nine and Stokes.
The rethugs are going to do everything to disrupt the results of the election.
It will be their last hurrah. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 10:08 am
I don’t think I can hold my breath for another week.
”
Turned blue? 🙂
Atleast you are”holding your breadth”.
I cannot sleep properly. I am asthmatic so I can’t hold breadth for long even if I want to.
I have a suspicion that many on PB are crossing their fingers and toes and holding their breadth at the same time. 🙂
No. Don’t even pretend like CNN is in the same boat as Fox (or MSNBC). CNN has a slight left bias but generally provides accurate and factual reporting.
Fox (and its associates/subsidiaries) is a right-wing propaganda outlet. MSNBC is the equivalent for the left. Neither is a good source of information.
There is no News organisation like MSNBC in Australia. All are Centre-right or RW or RWNJs except “The Guardian “, I would classify as more to Centre than Centre-left.
Harris is on course for a win at the ballot box. Trump is on course to try to prevent the vote counts being taken or certified. We have a party that believes in democracy and another that will subvert it. The Republic is in jeopardy.
”
a rsays:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 10:15 am
Yes MSNBC is pro-Democrat, it doesn’t hide that fact.
Just like CNN are pro-Democrat, FoxNews is pro-Republican.
No. Don’t even pretend like CNN is in the same boat as Fox (or MSNBC). CNN has a slight left bias but generally provides accurate and factual reporting.
Fox (and its associates/subsidiaries) is a right-wing propaganda outlet. MSNBC is the equivalent for the left. Neither is a good source of information
”
As someone said “Facts have left wing bias” 🙂
‘Ven says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 10:12 am
”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 10:08 am
I don’t think I can hold my breath for another week.
”
Turned blue?
Atleast you are”holding your breadth”.
I cannot sleep properly. I am asthmatic so I can’t hold breadth for long even if I want to.
I have a suspicion that many on PB are crossing their fingers and toes and holding their breadth at the same time. ‘
============
haha
“Did Joe Rogan inadvertently end Donald Trump’s campaign by suggesting some time ago that Trump have comedian Tony Hinchcliffe tour with him?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jtJHakOC-E
Okay, I’ll transgress and say it. Tony Hinchcliffe has a well-disguised little bit of an Adolf ‘tache going on there.
FUBAR,
Kirky has been here longer than you. He just doesn’t comment as prolifically as some. Like you, for instance.
ScromoII says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 8:20 am
Let’s see in about three days when the polls are entirely taken after the New York rally.
I bet that they show no significant change or Trump continues gaining.
Nice try. The truth-in-the-ballot-box is that Harris is already winning. The early votes favour Harris. By the time in-person voting takes place next week it will be clear that Trump peaked months ago. The Republican Party is split. Trump has mobilised infrequent voters to register and roll up….to roll up for Harris.
The MAGA-attached make up maybe 1/4 possible voters. Rusted-on Republicans will overcome their repulsion and vote the ticket. The rest of the country will vote Democratic. Trump’s only hope is that the votes don’t get counted. In this, he will fail.
Kamala Harris at the Ellipse up now:
https://www.youtube.com/live/IYn9_XgE23k?si=TKe1SQ_AFsgMeWJn
Trump appeals to a wide spectrum of reactionaries …to those who are sexist, racist/nativist and elitist; to campaigning/ideological Christians. He appeals to those perverted by hatred and self-adulation. He also ploughs the fields of grievance, jealousy, fear and resentment…the same fields tilled year in/ year out by the sensationalist reactionary media. First there is titillation. Then there is malignancy. There is Trump.