This site has cautioned against getting too excited one way or another about movements inside of a percentage point on polling aggregates or of a few points on probability forecasts, such distinctions more than likely to be quite a bit smaller than the ultimate overall polling error. Nonetheless, it presumably means at least something that Donald Trump has gone from slightly behind to slightly ahead in the forecast models of Nate Silver, The Economist and FiveThirtyEight. Going back to my original point though, Silver makes the following observations:
One thing that might be counterintuitive is that even a normal-sized polling error — polls are typically off by around 3 points in one direction or the other — could lead to one candidate sweeping all 7 key battleground states. In our simulations yesterday, which account for the possibility of a correlated polling error, the most common outcome was Trump winning all 7 swing states: this happened 24 percent of the time. And the next most common was a Harris sweep, which occurred in 15 percent of simulations …
The baseline assumption of the Silver Bulletin model is that while the polls could be wrong again — and in fact, they probably will be wrong to some degree — it’s extremely hard to predict the direction of the error. Empirically, there’s basically no correlation in polling error from one cycle to the next one. And pollsters could be overcompensating if they’re worried about missing low on Trump again or if the 2020 polling error was primarily caused by COVID: Democrats being more likely to “socially distance” and having more time to respond to polls. There are prominent examples of this, such as in the 2017 UK election, where pollsters put a heavy finger on the scale for Tories but Labour beat its polls instead.
Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.
overhead, are those angels or vultures
heavy wings and the hum of decay
they seethe and hover
skew and smother
the light of day
every word is a dissonant whisper
they’ve got you wearing a smile like a mask
and all you’re left with
is every question you’re scared to ask
I think I read a comment in 2016 that Trump supporters take Trump seriously, but not literally. On the other hand, Democrats didn’t take Trump seriously, but did take what he said literally.
I think Democrats do now take Trump seriously. However, I think they still fall into the trap of taking what he says literally, when his supporters don’t. So, they get all excited saying “did you hear what Trump said, surely you can’t vote for him now” when his supporters don’t care what he said. All it actually does is give more attention to Trump and less attention to his opponents.
That’s where highlighting what his former staff say about him might be more effective. What they so goes to his character and ability.
FUBAR says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 8:03 pm
Stooge says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7:39 pm
Anyone who says that thermal values do not influence/determine the climate
I didn’t say that all. The key question is the sensitivity of climate to changes in CO2. That is still an open question. There are multiple factors that effect climate that are vastly more powerful than the thermal properties of CO2 – the oceans, water vapour and clouds, the Sun.
This is false. It is completely and demonstrably false. FUBAR, as always, is gaslighting. All of the heat in the earth’s atmosphere – all of it – is present because of the interaction between light and CO2. In particular, a part of the non-optical light spectrum, infrared light, interacts with CO2. The light comes from the sun. Were there no CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature on the planet would be -30 degrees c.
We are adding CO2 and the temperature is going up. This is precisely what we would expect. More C02: more infrared/CO2 interaction:more heat retention. If C02 were removed from the atmosphere then light conversion/heat retention would decline. This has occurred in the past. The reverse is occurring now.
The owners of the fossil fuels know this. They’ve known it for many decades. They’re financing denial in order to prolong the market life of their resources. They’re monetising lies.
Stooge says Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:06 am
While what you say might be true, I don’t think this is the appropriate thread to discuss it, except in how it relates to the upcoming US elections.
FWIW, I’ve been watching quite a bit of ice hockey since the NHL season started a few weeks ago and the feed provides local ads. I usually mute or switch to another game, but still I’ve only seen democrat ads so far. The hockey market would have major overlap with the demographic that generally favours Trump and many of the big clubs are in the states that matter. Encouraging to see the Dems going so hard here and the Republicans seemingly unable to spend or taking it for granted.
Good point Ovechkin.
Confidence in Harris win soaring!
Thanks for your input.
Were it not for the presence of C02 in the atmosphere there would be no water vapour. All the water on the planet would be frozen. All of it. The addition of CO2 is adding to the insulation properties of te atmosphere. More heat is retained. The vapour load is increasing, which is one of the factors driving more severe storms and flooding. That is….thermal factors are changing weather patterns and events on a global scale, and this is becoming more pronounced as the heat load increases.
The Reactionaries are determined to deny this. They would prefer ignorance to facts.
From The Guardian.
bc says:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:15 am
Stooge says Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:06 am
….
The owners of the fossil fuels know this. They’ve known it for many decades. They’re financing denial in order to prolong the market life of their resources. They’re monetising lies.
While what you say might be true, I don’t think this is the appropriate thread to discuss it, except in how it relates to the upcoming US elections.
The Reactionary bludgers are constantly gas-lighting….lying…dissembling. Somehow FUBAR was disseminating yet more lies about climate change. The lies of Reactionaries cannot pass uncontested. The lying by Reactionaries is on a pandemic scale. They have to be accosted.
Dick Cheney is going to win this thing for Harris. Undecided voters just needed to know that she can be trusted by the guy who did 9/11.
The Cheneys aren’t there for the undecideds, they’re there for GOP voters with enough principles left to find Trump unpalatable, especially in light of Jan 6. They give those voters permission to vote for Kamala to stop Trump.
It appears Mitch’s comments in an upcoming book might be a little more honest than normal: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/mcconnell-trump-gop-new-book/index.html
Bellwether says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 9:55 pm
Esperanza was brilliant. What a voice! Would love to hear her doing some Joni Mitchell. Her two interpretive dancers were an interesting diversion. Not really my thing, but clearly extremely talented dancers.
Zero politics. Just great music. Not even an acknowledgment of country. Same from Herbie.
Stooge says:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:06 am
“ Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas overall, being responsible for 41–67% of the greenhouse effect,”
Google it.
bc 11.52pm (and 12.15am!)
Good insight, FA with you. It’s about dominating the narrative / news, and Trump’s opponents fall into the trap again and again.
They need to pick their battles in reaction to what he says more circumspectly.
BTSays says Friday, October 25, 2024 at 2:11 am
The problem is that it’s the media that falls for it.
Speaking of dominating the news, Donald Trump is a fascist and his supporters are supporters of fascism. So if the shoe fits, you know, you should wear it.
Quite glad to hurt their stupid feelings on this one.
Here’s a short piece dealing with their latest talking point (“my feelings!”) and generally showing the appropriate level of contempt for the whole notion.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/is-calling-trump-fascist-an-insult-to-trump-voters.html
BTW I don’t really understand what all the fuss was is about, the level of acrimony in this thread seems perfectly normal to me.
Right wingers get pushback, have emotional public meltdowns, and we move on. Pat for the course really.
Some people mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases.
NASA
Light from the sun is the source of heat on this planet. Were it not for CO2 in the atmosphere all the light would be reflected back into space and the planet’s surface would be frozen. There would be no water vapour.
FUBAR is making shit up about climate change as usual.
Some people mistakenly believe water vapor is the main driver of Earth’s current warming. But increased water vapor doesn’t cause global warming. Instead, it’s a consequence of it. Increased water vapor in the atmosphere amplifies the warming caused by other greenhouse gases.
NASA
Light from the sun is the source of heat on this planet. Were it not for CO2 in the atmosphere all the light would be reflected back into space and the planet’s surface would be frozen. There would be no water vapour.
FUBAR is making shit up about climate change as usual.
Big Villiage – President National
LV: Harris 51.6%, Trump 45.0% (Harris +6.6)
RV: Harris 49.0%, Trump 43.2% (Harris +5.8)
(10/18-10/23)
brown shirt vendors in shambles
@Ovechkin the >3:1 fundraising advantage can’t be hurting there either – one of the often disregarded ‘fundamentals’ that have heavily favoured Harris.
Fmr. GOP Congressman Fred Upton:
“Today, I’m joining more than 30 former Republican members of Congress who publicly refuse to support Donald Trump, and I’m proud to say that I’ve already cast my ballot for Kamala Harris. I’ve never before voted for a Democrat for president. And I honestly never thought I would…”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1849511574337106030
Michelle Obama joining Kamala Harris in Texas on Friday.
Generally – why are some black and Hispanic men seemingly voting for Trump? Pure sexism – they resent a woman telling them what to do, simple as that.
While I have my reservations about Harris, and I think Pete Buttigieg would have blown Trump out of the water, nevertheless Trump is a fascist who admires Hitler’s generals and he would turn America into a facsimile of Russia, where the police and the army and the courts would be loyal to him solely. Trump is unsuitable to be President again. As for his economic policies, just madness, more fool working class men in particular who have fallen for the con. And as for women, your status would revert to that of stay at home baby making machines.,
Ovechkin @ #5 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 12:17 am
It would also feed into the markets they want to hold in the North: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Democracy Sausage @ #25 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 6:36 am
Back to Post WW2, where Women were forced out of their jobs when the men came back from the frontline. It’s a sad situation some powerful old men have been working towards for decades.
Black men are moving towards Trump exactly along the same lines as white men, educational attainment. The entire realignment of the electorate in the past 15 years has been based on this metric because there’s a direct correlation to economic achievement.
Democrats are losing this demographic across all racial backgrounds, and if they are not careful the multi racial coalition they’ve built will crumble.
Big Village has always been a left biassed poll.
Face it, Kameleons it’s over.
Face it, Kameleons it’s over.
Looks like it ScromoII. Over ninety percent likely that Cheeto Benito loses again and becomes synonymous with total losership for the next six hundred years or so, that is.
ScromoII @ #29 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 8:19 am
Lol. 😐
Trump day by day now is winning Dems need a leader to stand up Biden is removed unavailable and Harris struggles.Panic soon.
pied piper @ #32 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 8:39 am
I don’t know why you try so hard to paint an obviously close election as a runaway win for Trump? Oh wait, yes I do, you’re the online equivalent of the kid in the school playground who likes to yell out ‘poo bum tit!’ in front of the teacher on playground duty and then runs away. 😐
The US election is also a de facto gender war.
Females are going to win this one. About bloody time I say.
The gender war is in the minds of the Dems meanwhile Trump gets stronger.
Every one’s a racist and sexist says the left as with the Voice we all saw who the real racists were.The Voice was racist.
Border policy smashing Dems.
If an electrician turned up at my house and they bought their spouse along and said – I’ll let them fix your electrical problem. They aren’t qualified, has zero experience, but don’t worry they know what they’re doing – I’d be calling multiple government agencies to report the electrician after I’d thrown them out of the house.
People think the spouse of an Ex-POTUS has a major role to play in winning an election?? WTF??
No problem with them turning up and doing a smile and waive in company as a supportive family member.
Wouldn’t know what Harris’s partner looks like. Is he a liability? Being hidden?
The Democrats are campaigning to the voters who can be moved either from the column of past Republican voters, or from the column of past non-voters. This means that in particular they will campaign to women. Trump continues his circus act.
No pied piper, Trump is weak. He is a desperate fool, openly embracing fascism in the deluded belief that it can save his skin. He is a loser and every day the grip of his tiny loser hands upon reality weakens further. Soon that too will be lost. He is racking up more Ls than the assistant host of Countdown.
Harris has played the dotard like a fiddle, trivially goading him into deranged outbursts and reminding all that he cannot be trusted with the levers of power. Harris is a strong leader and Trump is a washed up conman who will proceed directly from losing the election to his felony sentencing hearing and then on to prison where his story will most likely end, forever a loser.
“ It’s the Inflation, Stupid: Why the Working Class Wants Trump Back”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/opinion/trump-election-inflation-working-class.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
pied piper says:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 8:53 am
The Reactionaries have legislated their hostility to women. They have also stacked the Supreme Court with liars who have dismantled women’s rights. This is not imaginary. The Reactionaries are running a sex offender – a violent sexual predator – as their candidate in the election. They are by their own deeds conspicuously sexist.
Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Harris in Closing Weeks of Race
Voters remember Trump’s presidency more fondly as negative views of Harris grow
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-leads-harris-wsj-poll-779f8516?st=RsWBQk&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Beyonce will perform at Harris rally in Houston, Texas on Friday, US time.
Knowing that Trump came out and said at his rally that he doesn’t need Beyonce.
We all know that when Taylor Swift endorsed Harris in September, Trump said: I hate Taylor Swift (like a school kid says when someone does something they don’t like).
The FUBARs, PPs, Paulas, Bad thinker of PB are here to ‘own the Libs’.
Nothing matters, Trump will win on canter, they say.
Bruce Springsteen is currently performing at Harris rallyin GA.
“Every one’s a racist and sexist says the left as with the Voice we all saw who the real racists were.The Voice was racist.”
Is that so Piping Shriek?
Even Trump’s former Republican colleagues say he is a bona fide fascist. Makes me wonder who in Australia would be rooting for him to win given all that. I guess the answer is self evident… other fascists.
The WSJ talks a big game for their rounded-up-within-MoE poll result. I wonder if Rupert feels he got his five billion worth. Anyway:
The Economist/YouGov President National (Harris +3)
LV: Harris: 49% Trump: 46% Stein: 1% Other: 1%
RV: Harris: 48% Trump: 46% Stein: 1% Other: 1%
1293 LV | Oct 19-22
Pete Butteigig on MSNBC: A lot of people in US have tuned out in last 4 to 8 years because of the Politics in the face all the time.
We have to appeal to those voters, who have switched off from “in the face politics”.
It reminded of ‘politics in the face’ we had in Australia during ATM government period especially during Scott Morrison PMship.
”
clem attleesays:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 9:59 am
“Every one’s a racist and sexist says the left as with the Voice we all saw who the real racists were.The Voice was racist.”
Is that so Piping Shriek?
Even Trump’s former Republican colleagues say he is a bona fide fascist. Makes me wonder who in Australia would be rooting for him to win given all that. I guess the answer is self evident… other fascists.
”
Or atleast Fascist adjacent.
There are some PB posters, who think that Australia has right to militarily attack countries that did not attack Australia in any shape or form and will not do so in future because they can do so. No I am not talking about China
I see that there’s still far more confidence about the result on here than among the US commentariat: even the left-leaning and “never Trump” commentators.
I just can’t see any grounds for feeling that way. I’m particularly worried about Michigan, but Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are also highly concerning. And Harris almost certainly needs to win all three to win the electoral college.
I reckon she needed a bigger lead at this stage than she has. That she is 1) black and 2) a woman are going to influence an important group of voters which – because people are shy about admitting they have racist and sexist attitudes – isn’t necessarily showing up in the polling.
I don’t want to be the prophet of doom. I still think she might just scrape over the line. But I see it as being more of an outside chance than the certainty that some posters on PB seem to believe it to be. And a result in which Harris only snares the three “blue wall” states plus one delegate from Nebraska is going to provide an almost limitless opportunity for Trump on the grounds that the election was “stolen.”
I feel like finding out what I need to do to become a prepper.
My little deep red California mountain town has Harris yard signs over Trump signs 25 to 3.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/24/2279262/-My-little-red-neck-California-mountain-town-has-Harris-yard-signs-over-Trump-signs-25-to-3?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web#comment_89925775