US presidential election minus two weeks

Still effectively nothing in it, but all three of the main forecasters detect movement in favour of Donald Trump.

This site has cautioned against getting too excited one way or another about movements inside of a percentage point on polling aggregates or of a few points on probability forecasts, such distinctions more than likely to be quite a bit smaller than the ultimate overall polling error. Nonetheless, it presumably means at least something that Donald Trump has gone from slightly behind to slightly ahead in the forecast models of Nate Silver, The Economist and FiveThirtyEight. Going back to my original point though, Silver makes the following observations:

One thing that might be counterintuitive is that even a normal-sized polling error — polls are typically off by around 3 points in one direction or the other — could lead to one candidate sweeping all 7 key battleground states. In our simulations yesterday, which account for the possibility of a correlated polling error, the most common outcome was Trump winning all 7 swing states: this happened 24 percent of the time. And the next most common was a Harris sweep, which occurred in 15 percent of simulations …

The baseline assumption of the Silver Bulletin model is that while the polls could be wrong again — and in fact, they probably will be wrong to some degree — it’s extremely hard to predict the direction of the error. Empirically, there’s basically no correlation in polling error from one cycle to the next one. And pollsters could be overcompensating if they’re worried about missing low on Trump again or if the 2020 polling error was primarily caused by COVID: Democrats being more likely to “socially distance” and having more time to respond to polls. There are prominent examples of this, such as in the 2017 UK election, where pollsters put a heavy finger on the scale for Tories but Labour beat its polls instead.

Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

954 thoughts on “US presidential election minus two weeks”

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  1. I am ashamed of Usha Vance because she doesn’t find anything wrong with Vance behaviour in this campaign. Theirs is a love marriage and not a arranged marriage like it happens/ happened in her community. She is very intelligent woman, graduated from Ivy league Yale University and has a great professional career but keeps silent to Vance continuous lies and outrageous statements especially about women

  2. Centre
    I’m a bit of a fan of ‘the vibe’ myself. I’d position the value of betting odds somewhere between the vibe and haruspicy.

  5. David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

    Donald Trump’s Racist NYC Rally Was Vile. It Was Also Political Suicide

    To all those Republicans who shed crocodile tears because their feelings were so hurt that people were calling Donald Trump a fascist: stop.

    To all the MAGA defenders who said it was over-the-top to compare Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally to that held by the German-American Bund in an earlier incarnation of Madison Square Garden: shush.

    To all those who were falling once again for the bought and paid for narrative that Trump somehow had the momentum going into the final week of campaign 2024: nope.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-racist-nyc-rally-was-vile-it-was-also-political-suicide/

    C@tmomma
    Did I address PP, FUBER and Centre with this article?

  6. C@t:

    I can’t believe she thinks that. She looked very uncomfortable at the RNC and has appeared uncomfortable at Vance events since. The Vance criticism as it pertains to the UK and Indians must hit home.

  7. Confessions @ #859 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:36 pm

    C@t:

    I can’t believe she thinks that. She looked very uncomfortable at the RNC and has appeared uncomfortable at Vance events since. The Vance criticism as it pertains to the UK and Indians must hit home.

    I honestly can’t imagine why she is being silent in the face of all her husband’s and her husband’s anti-brown immigrant rhetoric. I just had to suggest a reason so shallow as some sort of explanation.

    Also, as I pointed out to our resident defender of the Right faith, FUBAR, this morning, that the British people don’t agree with his characterisation of their country as they just had an Anglo-Indian PM!

  8. Interesting that US treasury bond yields have risen and the US Dollar has strengthened ahead of the election.

    The markets believe that both parties will spend, but Donald has guaranteed that inflation will fall. That can only mean further tightening for low to middle Americans and tax cuts for the top.

    Yet Donald leads, go figure!

  9. Those predicting civil unrest or even worse after the election should pause to consider the US Supreme Court’s decision that gave the president almost absolute powers (see, Trump v. United States No. 23–939.)*

    Biden will be president until the new one is sworn in on Jan 20. I’m sure he hasn’t been sitting on his hands in the knowledge of Jan 6. I think security services will be on red alert for some 6 months post the election. It’s also reasonable to presume that if push comes to shove, given the US Armed Services swear allegiance to the Constitution & not to a President or a “wannabe dictator”, coupled with the way Trump has disparaged those in uniform, in the event MAGA followers go feral, they (the Armed Services) will be very aware of their duty if called upon to exercise it. That said, I very much doubt that it will reach such a critical mass.

    * https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf

  11. Exactly, Mavis. I’m sure the Department of Justice, the Attorney General and the President have been busy making contingency plans if citizen Trump tries any shenanigans after the election. Especially the ‘secret’ attempt with Mike Johnson to throw the decision back to the states and their Representatives in Congress to nullify the results of the election and hand it to Trump after a state by state vote.

  13. Mavis @ #860 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:51 pm

    Those predicting civil unrest or even worse after the election should pause to consider the US Supreme Court’s decision that gave the president almost absolute powers (see, Trump v. United States No. 23–939.)*

    Biden will be president until the new one is sworn in on Jan 20. I’m sure he hasn’t been sitting on his hands in the knowledge of Jan 6. I think security services will be on red alert for some 6 months post the election. It’s also reasonable to presume that if push comes to shove, given the US Armed Services swear allegiance to the Constitution & not to a President or a “wannabe dictator”, coupled with the way Trump has disparaged those in uniform, in the event MAGA followers go feral, they (the Armed Services) will be very aware of their duty if called upon to exercise it. That said, I very much doubt that it will reach such a critical mass.

    * https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf

    Those points are true, but on the other side, it’s highly likely that Trump’s “secret little plan” that he alluded to in his McNuremburger rally while winking at US House Speaker Mike Johnson is to cause just enough chaos in enough swing states that it prevents Kamala getting to 270 Electoral College votes so the question of the Presidency goes to this outrageously unfair contingency plan in which the House votes for President, 1 vote per State, in which he’d undoubtedly win.

  17. Teapot Dome @ 10.02 pm

    There is no wishful thinking. I will give you a friendly tip and to the Kamala supporters:

    * PREPARE FOR THE WORST and hope for the best.

    There is still a VERY slim hope for Kamala, but there must be movement towards her where it matters by the end of the week 😉

    As for the Kamala supporters who have been sparring with me for weeks now – two words:

    Suck Eggs 🙂

  18. ‘As for the Kamala supporters who have been sparring with me for weeks now – two words:

    Suck Eggs ‘

    Wow! Deep burn Centre! Not sure I’ll recover from that one!

  20. As Centre shows, they have gaslighted their own side

    MAGA world’s hyper-confidence

    Donald Trump’s surrogates, allies and foot soldiers appear supremely confident he’ll be re-elected president next week, projecting an air of inevitability inconsistent with what polls portray as a coin-flip election.

    Trump could win, potentially in a landslide. So could Vice President Harris. And yet the MAGA universe largely refuses to entertain the latter outcome — priming Trump’s base for mass distrust, disbelief and denial of a second straight election loss.

    “The Republicans are projecting an image of a landslide and are hyped on early voting numbers in a way I have never seen before,” Split Ticket elections analyst Lakshya Jain tweeted Sunday.

    “You can credibly construct an argument for Trump as a favorite, but we can do that for Harris too,” he added.

    https://www.axios.com/2024/10/29/trump-election-win-confidence-rigged

  23. ‘Mel Gibson has come out and said today that “Harris has the IQ of a fence post”.

    Ouch!’

    That is bad for Harris. I reckon he has totally stitched up the Jewish vote for Trump with this…

  26. Just a warning for those thinking that Trump and the Republicans are creating the perception that they lead to claim the election was rigged if they lose?

    Biden is the President. Trump and the Republicans are not that stupid, they know they will be unable to overturn this election.

    It won’t stop Trump from not conceding though!

    * exit stage left

  29. C@tmomma & Kirsdarke

    Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:58 pm

    I trust the Dems have plans in place to counter the GOP’s cunning plan. If the election is close, the SCOTUS may be called on to decide it, as it did in 2000. This is where Biden could exercise his plenary powers by having Alito, Thomas & Gorsuch arrested for undoubted corruption and Kavanagh for sexual assault & corruption.

    Granted, it sounds fanciful, but it was the currently comprised SCOTUS that made a ruling that might come back to bite them. Biden could further exercise his powers by appointing four liberal justices in their place, without Senate confirmation, justifying his actions – not that he’d be required to do so – on the threat these men posed to the fabric of the nation. This hypothetical is precisely why the SCOTUS’s decision is such bad law & will eventually be overturned.

  31. Mavis at 10.57pm

    I trust the Dems have plans in place to counter the GOP’s cunning plan. If the election is close, the SCOTUS may be called on to decide it, as it did in 2000. This is where Biden could exercise his plenary powers by having Alito, Thomas & Gorsuch arrested for undoubted corruption and Kavanagh for sexual assault & corruption.

    Granted, it sounds fanciful, but it was the currently comprised SCOTUS that made a ruling that might come back to bite them. Biden could further exercise his powers by appointing four liberal justices in their place, without Senate confirmation, justifying his actions – not that he’d be required to do so – on the threat these men posed to the fabric of the nation. This hypothetical is precisely why the SCOTUS’s decision is such bad law & will eventually be overturned.

    ——————

    This is as insane a thing to say as Trump’s “lock her up” rhetoric.

  32. Mavis @ #880 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 10:57 pm

    C@tmomma & Kirsdarke

    Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:58 pm

    I trust the Dems have plans in place to counter the GOP’s cunning plan. If the election is close, the SCOTUS may be called on to decide it, as it did in 2000. This is where Biden could exercise his plenary powers by having Alito, Thomas & Gorsuch arrested for undoubted corruption and Kavanagh for sexual assault & corruption.

    Granted, it sounds fanciful, but it was the currently comprised SCOTUS that made a ruling that might come back to bite them. Biden could further exercise his powers by appointing four liberal justices in their place, without Senate confirmation, justifying his actions – not that he’d be required to do so – on the threat these men posed to the fabric of the nation. This hypothetical is precisely why the SCOTUS’s decision is such bad law & will eventually be overturned.

    To be fair, the SCOTUS only got away with it in 2000 because it was such a knife’s edge in this one district in Florida. For it to happen again in 2024, it would require everything to hang on another knife’s edge.

    One thing that’s been good this time around is that for the past 4 years, Trump hasn’t been appointing any further corrupt judges to decide this sort of thing, and all the bullshit Republican challenges to the results of the 2020 elections were successfully rebuffed. So that increasingly leaves the only way that Trump wins the election through the courts is if he actually wins the election.

  33. Finally! The answer to the question that so many people have been kept up at night wondering about. What does Mel Gibson think about it all? XD

  36. Ven says Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 4:23 pm

    Lincoln Project-“Day of Hate” The. Most. Powerful. (Watch video)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/28/2280306/-Lincoln-Project-Day-of-Hate?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “If you have not seen this video yet, take a deep breath before you do. I just watched it and am still shaking. It is the most powerful one I’ve seen. And ,my god, that’s saying something. If for many people Janusry 6th is the red line or anything close this draws it as sharply as anything can.”

    I generally don’t read The Daily Kos links because I prefer non partisan sources of news rather than echo chambers, but that video is really powerful. It’s a shame few voters will likely see it.

  37. bc @ #886 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 12:02 am

    Ven says Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 4:23 pm

    Lincoln Project-“Day of Hate” The. Most. Powerful. (Watch video)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/28/2280306/-Lincoln-Project-Day-of-Hate?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “If you have not seen this video yet, take a deep breath before you do. I just watched it and am still shaking. It is the most powerful one I’ve seen. And ,my god, that’s saying something. If for many people Janusry 6th is the red line or anything close this draws it as sharply as anything can.”

    I generally don’t read The Daily Kos links because I prefer non partisan sources of news rather than echo chambers, but that video is really powerful. It’s a shame few voters will likely see it.

    Unfortunately it’s moved beyond that. It’s currently at the stage where you show a MAGA irrefutable evidence of Trump’s team being Fascists and most of them are like “Yeah? So? I like that.” And they mean it.

  38. Kirsdarke says Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 12:12 am

    Unfortunately it’s moved beyond that. It’s currently at the stage where you show a MAGA irrefutable evidence of Trump’s team being Fascists and most of them are like “Yeah? So? I like that.” And they mean it.

    Trump might win, the polling shows it’s too close for anyone to really know. However, that doesn’t mean that a majority of voters are signed up to the MAGA cult. There will be plenty of Republican voters who will hold their nose while voting Trump. A video like this might persuade some of them to change their vote, or stay at home. It may also cause some who were going to stay at home to turn up and vote for Harris. They might make the difference in the swing states.

    I’m really hoping the speculation about “shy Harris” voters or women turning out in droves is correct and Harris exceeds her polling numbers, but my hopes don’t decide the outcome of the US election.

  39. I’m not sucking eggs Centre. You’re the one who’s lost your money betting on Harris, if you think Trump has it in the bag. I’m actually more optimistic than I’ve been in weeks though, now you’re tipping Trump. After all, never known you to back a winner (though even you’re a chance in a two horse race).

  40. Ven: Fool! You liberals are just clutching desperately at straws. The New York rally was no inflection point. Trump knows that those remarks by those invited speakers have no effect on the electorate and so allowed them to be said with impunity. Welcome to the real world where “overt racism” (as defined by the Left) works better than mere “dog whistling”. Dutton may not have the political genius of the GOP but he will learn from this and may cement a win at next year’s federal election.

    As for the polls…… total wishful thinking to think that there is an abundance of right wing polls. If anything I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump actually wins the popular vote by 4 points. The Left should just accept the fact the world is not theirs. Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the Earth.

  42. Racist pigs won’t be surprised if racist pig goes +4 because racism is best policy, yep got it, incontrovertible truth bomb there… Political genius of the GOP owww my sides

  44. Gosh the top minds of MAGA get a bit toey when you push back on their confected narrative of momentum and ascendancy don’t they … I wonder if they’re feeling nervous?

  45. Former president Donald Trump delivered remarks Tuesday in Palm Beach, Florida, before heading to campaign in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. While in Palm Beach, Trump defended Sunday’s rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, where opening speakers lobbed racist and sexist insults. Trump called it a “lovefest.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/10/29/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/

    Just like 6 January 2021 was a day of love. He truly is demented.

  48. Bannon is released from jail and goes right back to bloviating.

    “We’re going to deliver a knockout blow to your progressive insanity on 5 November, and then we’re going to secure the deal after that,” Bannon said on his War Room podcast hours after his early morning release. Bannon accused House Democrats, former speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and others of making false claims to steal, reverse or deligitimize Trump’s upcoming election win with Congress’s aid.

    “Take out your number two pencil and write this down: This show has never been more powerful,” Bannon said. “The four months in federal prison, not only didn’t break me, it empowered me. I am more energized and more focused than I’ve ever been in my entire life, and I can see clearly, just like in 2016 and in 2020, exactly what went on here and what we have to do defeat it.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/10/29/steve-bannon-released-from-prison/

  49. “Of course. Up is Down. Black is White. Hate is Love.”

    War is peace.
    Freedom is slavery.
    Ignorance is strength.

    — George Orwell, 1984

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