Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

One bad and one good result for federal Labor, plus findings on the monarch and the monarchy.

After ticking in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago, the latest Essential Research poll ticks back with a four point drop to 28% (down a point on two polls ago), while the Coalition recovers the point it lost last time to hit 35%. The Greens are steady on 12%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and undecided component is up one to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has shown a tight tussle for around a year now, has the Coalition up one to 48% and Labor down three to 46%. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which give Peter Dutton his best results to date, his approval up three to 45% and disapproval down three to 39%. Anthony Albanese is up two to 44% and up one on disapproval to 48%.

Further questions are inspired by the visit to Australia of King Charles III, including a finding of 50% approval and 26% disapproval of whatever it is that he does. A question on a republic finds a big drop in unsure since January, with support up three to 45% and opposition up four to 39%. A question on the rarely canvassed issue of federalism (at least, that’s how I would interpret it – the question didn’t actually mention the states) finds 61% considering the federal government has about the right amount of power, with 13% saying it should have more and 26% less. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1140.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll is quite a bit better for Labor, finding their primary vote up two to 32%, the Coalition down one to 36.5%, the Greens down half to 13.5% and One Nation down half to 5.5%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 52-48, after a tied result last time, while the previous election preferences measure has it at 53-47, out from 51-49. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,145 comments on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 23
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  1. michaelsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 1:38 pm
    I have been just reading about the debacle in Broken Hill.

    —————
    From Renew Energy, 27/10/2024.
    The 200 MW Silverton wind farm and the 53 MW Broken Hill solar farm are sitting idle. Their owner, Tilt Renewables, says they are not damaged but cannot generate under their connection rules in such circumstances. That would be different if the battery was operating as it could, or even should.

    The AGL website boasts that the Broken Hill battery can – with the grid-forming inverters funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency – “support the reliable supply of electricity to Broken Hill in the event of line failure and provide efficient grid support for the region.”

    Maybe a deliberate plan to exclude renewable energy by the grid owners who supply power to Broken Hill and nearby towns.

    What are the ‘connection rules ‘ that stop the use of solar, wind and battery to supply energy?

  2. ‘Luigi Smith says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 3:06 pm

    Bandt has just accused Albanese of spending his time “taking on the Greens”.

    A little bit of pot kettle black.’
    ==================
    They can dish it up but they can’t take it.

  3. Boerwar

    Meh. You spew hate and you ignore Albanese’s major achievements.
    ————————
    Albo still hasn’t done the accepted in principal responses to the disability royal commission.

  4. Mosaic Brands, the company behind Australian fashion brands including Rivers, Katies and Noni B, has entered voluntary administration, putting almost 3,000 jobs at risk.
    The company, which operates more than 700 retail stores around the country, confirmed the decision in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on Monday afternoon.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-28/mosaic-brands-voluntary-administration-rivers-millers-katies/104527138?sf275208178=1

  5. 2h ago
    13.37 AEDT
    Albanese government ‘not serious’ about airline competition, Spender says

    Teal MP Allegra Spender has accused the government of not being “serious” about airline competition.

    Taking to X to share her view on allegations in a new book that the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, requested flight upgrades from Qantas.

    Spender said the government’s actions meant “higher prices for Australians”.

    She also alleged Albanese has a “cosy relationship” with former Qantas CEO Alan Joyce:

    “The Albanese govt hasn’t been serious about airline competition. Qatar Air and foot dragging on Sydney landing slots mean higher prices for Australians. His flight upgrades and cosy relations with Alan Joyce create a perception of conflict (whether they influence him or not).”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/oct/28/australia-news-live-telstra-and-optus-shut-down-3g-network-crisafulli-and-deputy-to-form-interim-cabinet-in-queensland

    Spender is right about the “upgrades and cosy relationship with Joyce creating a perception of conflict”.

    There’s a stench to this.

  6. I was surprised to hear Adam Bandt admit this morning that he had membership to the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge but that is was okay because he hadn’t done Qantas any favours. This revelation has led me to think that there is obviously some truth in the hoary old expression pertaining to politicians that “they are all the same”; everyone knows where the trough is.

  7. ABC news, 3pm, Monday 28, October.

    ‘Mosaic Brands, the company behind Australian fashion brands including Rivers, Katies and Noni B, has entered voluntary administration, putting almost 3,000 jobs at risk.

    The company, which operates more than 700 retail stores around the country, confirmed the decision in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on Monday afternoon.

    It comes after Mosaic announced it would shut down five of its brands in September: Rockmans, Autograph, Crossroads, W.Lane and BeMe.‘

    Now we know the Labor government Treasurer Chalmers boasts about cutting spending to achieve a surplus. Which all Australians should be pleased with, he says.

    But in a cost of living crisis, with 1 in 9 Australian families needing to visit Foodbanks, OzHarvest, charities supplying food, other essential needs, and not increasing Jobseeker to near pension level, same with student allowance, means shops like Rivers, Katies, Noni B are not getting customers.

    We visit Rivers on occasions and they only ever have a few people browsing. Some of course will purchase.
    People are cutting back spending,

    Chalmers, living in his privileged world, like all MPs seems to run Treasury from his theory book.
    Has little understanding of poorer Australians struggles. And doesn’t care either.

    Similar for Healthcare. Where regional areas such as Newcastle/Lake Macquarie has increasing numbers of residents who can’t afford to visit a GP.

    But not increasing government payments for doctors will be part of Chalmers savings to reach his famed budget surplus.

    So there will be fewer bulk billing doctors. The Albanese government is overseeing a broken health care system.

    Access Denied: Australians Locked Out of Quality Healthcare draws on the 2023 patient experience survey (PES) component of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Multiperson Household Survey and original data estimations produced by the University of Canberra for NSW Council of Social Services (NCOSS).

  8. Stuartsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 4:05 pm

    I was surprised to hear Adam Bandt admit this morning that he had membership to the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge but that is was okay because he hadn’t done Qantas any favours. This revelation has led me to think that there is obviously some truth in the hoary old expression pertaining to politicians that “they are all the same”; everyone knows where the trough is.

    ___________________

    People are too quick to think that defending the party policy automatically means defending the person.

    I think it is perfectly fine for one to say that the broadly support Labor, or the Greens, or the LNP policy position.

    But I find it very hard to argue that either someone who: hadn’t had a day job since Windows 3.1; a wannabe trump who can barely control his team; and a failed Marxist illiterate of his own economics, are the best leaders we could have.

  9. Minns Labor government is appearing more shortsighted & incompetent than the worst LNP government.

    Hopeless town planning & cuts to Services NSW which had established a brilliant one stop shop ( with digital infrastructure support )

  10. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 4:07 pm
    Qatar air has made a deal with Virgin to fly to Australia under Virgin’s name.
    ____________________
    there are no virgins in Parliament or in the airline game.

  11. After Barry, Mike, Gladys and Dom sold off anything that wasn’t nailed down, it was inevitable that a future state government would be unable to maintain services.
    I guess when the ports return to public hands in 2114…oh wait.
    Perhaps when the land titles office returns to public hands in 2050 oh wait.
    Or the government owned electricity system can help out.
    I’m sure the regional energy supplier that was not sold off in full or part will fill the black hole. Can’t wait for the screams from rural NSW.
    I’m sure I’ve missed plenty.
    Yeah and Labor’s hands aren’t clean in this regard either.

  12. If Australians don’t accept the truth that the Liberals and Nationals are just waiting for Trump’s win in November to unleash their own version of Project 2025 on this country, we are going to end up in the same hellhole as the USA.

    The scum have already tried to embed the thin edge of the axe in South Australia with the ridiculous Late-Term Abortion Ban, which was soundly and thankfully defeated in the SA Parliament a few weeks back. Our laws already adequately deal with this issue, which affects about four women a year.

    And just like that, give those rightwing nutter idealogues a sliver of a chance, and we will be back to The Dark Ages before you can say, ‘Burn the witch.’

  13. Aqualung
    There is no way I would live in NSW. Corruption started with the Rum Corps and has only got worse ever since. It is irredeemable.

  14. “ Remember when we were told that by paying our politicians better we’d attract better people into politics.
    Still waiting for the better politicians to run and be elected.”

    Aqualung, I always used to hear that if you pay peanuts you get monkeys. The actual truth is political perks leads to pigs with their snouts in the trough.

    Career politicians often pretend they do what ever it is they do to serve the public. They say they could earn more in the private sector. The truth is they set themselves up for very lucrative post politics jobs in the private sector through the contacts they make and the favours they do while in office. Not to mention very cushy superannuation.

    Albanese getting favours for himself and his family from Alan Joyce over many years is just revealing who he has always been.

    Total hypocrite:

    Claimed to be from the left but colluded with NSW Liberals to knife the true Labor left to further his political career.

    Claimed to be a Friend of Palestine but won’t criticise Netanyahu by name, and voted down the Greens attempt to recognise Palestine by insisting on adding a bull shit amendment about a nonexistent peace process.

    Claimed to care about the environment but expanded coal mines to pump three billion tons of green house gasses into the atmosphere.

    Claimed to support unions but colluded with Dutton to bring in union busting laws that saw hundreds of union officials dismissed by a government appointed administrator without any allegations of wrong doing against them.

    Repeats his single mother public housing story ad nauseam until I want to puke and talks about leaving no one behind but won’t raise the dole for unemployed citizens living in abject poverty during a cost of living crisis.

    This man is just awful. He stands for nothing. His whole political ambition was to become PM and in achieving it he just turned out to be weak, timid, hypocritical and incompetent.

    Shame!

    Albanese is very fortunate that Dutton is the devil, and even that might not save us.

  15. PuffyTMD @ #1020 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 4:57 pm

    Aqualung
    There is no way I would live in NSW. Corruption started with the Rum Corps and has only got worse ever since. It is irredeemable.

    I’m going to sell but I’m buggared if I can decide where I want to live PuffyTMD.
    The state is being run for the property developers. It beggars belief that someone wanting to downsize in my position, is having to look to regional areas to find something that won’t chew up whatever I walk away with and allow me to survive on more than the OAP.

  16. If only we could somehow harness the collective insights of the Bludgerverse to lead Australia. We would truly be the Lucky Country 🙂

  17. “What are the ‘connection rules ‘ that stop the use of solar, wind and battery to supply energy?”

    It’s called engineering. To be precise, energy is not power, and it is definitely not alternating current electrical power.

    There are a bunch of studies that are required to validate the stability, safety and security of an isolated power system. I doubt AEMO or Transgrid have conducted these studies for Broken Hill for the specific configuration of assets that are currently islanded there. The last thing anyone wants is to power up a remote grid and do more damage to shared and private assets because of inadequate checks.

    Transgrid being lazy/cheap and failing to adequately maintain backup services? The AER is already collecting evidence and expect a hefty fine.

  18. I see today Irene is blaming the government for a fashion retailer going down the tubes.

    Australian fashion retailers have been going down the tubes for the past 15-20 years, after being the biggest rip-off merchants in the country for decades before that. Exposure to competition from overseas retailers and the internet has been fantastic for consumers, at the expense of retail stores that charged exorbitant mark-ups and carried ranges limited in stock and quality, many of which failed to adapt.

    Consumers spending less to bring down inflation is pretty much the entire point of what the RBA and the government have been doing. We’re aware that it’s quite possible the RBA is overdoing it, with negative effects on business and households. The government has said this themselves. It’s not some startling new insight you’ve had, Irene.

    The whole point of bringing down inflation is to ease the cost of living crisis. Handing out some money now might make people think the government is doing something, but it’s actually counterproductive, while not spending and keeping the cost of living from going up in the first place will benefit people more. And then the money is still there to spend when it’s less of an inflation risk.

    This is not a difficult concept to grasp, except for those hell bent on slagging the government for everything.

  19. The country’s peak Jewish body has taken a radical cleric to the Federal Court after a slew of sermons referring to the Jewish community as “vile and treacherous people” and peddled anti-Semitic tropes.
    The legal action is an example of the escalation of testing how, and whether, hate speech can be prosecuted in Australia.
    The action comes after state and federal police recently laid charges against people who waved the flag of listed terror group Hezbollah, and high-profile restaurateur Alan Yazbek for displaying the Nazi swastika symbol.
    On Friday, the Executive Council of Australian Jewry instigated proceedings in the Federal Court against extremist preacher Wissam Haddad, also known as Abu Ousayd, and his Bankstown-based Al Madina Dawah Centre. The Australian in January revealed how the ECAJ had lodged a vilification complaint with the country’s human rights body against the preacher and the Bankstown centre, given perceived police inaction and an inability to lay charges, partly due to NSW’s “toothless” hate-speech criminal provisions.
    The proceedings are made under part IIA of the Racial Discrimination Act – which outlaws offensive behaviour based on racial hatred – and brought to the court by the ECAJ’s co-chief executive, Peter Wertheim AM, and deputy president Robert Goot AO SC. Mr Wertheim said attempts at mediation between the parties at the Australian Human Rights Commission had failed and that the court move was a last resort forced upon the Jewish community and its leaders. “We have commenced proceedings to defend the honour of our community, and as a warning to deter others seeking to mobilise racism in order to promote their political views,” he said.

  20. Coalition nuclear plan a ‘smokescreen’ for fossil fuels, renewables advocate tells inquiry

    More from the inquiry running in parliament today about nuclear energy generation in Australia, where renewables industry advocate John Grimes launched a bitter attack on the Coalition’s plans.

    Grimes, the chief executive of the Smart Energy Council, told the inquiry the Coalition’s plan was “all about attacking renewables and boosting fossil fuels”.

    Recalling Scott Morrison’s 2017 stunt where he brought a lump of coal into parliament, Grimes said:

    This nuclear proposal is today’s version of a lump of coal in parliament.

    The motivation [of the Coalition’s plan is to attack renewables and hold them back. Nothing has changed. This is a smokescreen.

    In a less measured and more graphic analogy, Grimes said the Coalition’s energy policy was “a bit like a dog, circling around and around finally coming back to eat its own vomit, only this time it’s nuclear flavoured”.

    We have seen this vomit before. It’s all about smashing renewables and delivering for fossil fuels.

  21. @VCT: “I remember one NSW Premier walking over a bottle of wine”

    Actually, he walked over misleading ICAC about that bottle of wine.

    Even then, there was a general disbelief that he didn’t try to tough it out on the basis it was an inadvertent and pretty minor bit of misleading, even given that it was a time when ICAC’s word was holy writ in NSW, before the Libs nobbled it in the eyes of partisans. Compare and contrast to Berejiklian trying to tough it out despite being caught bang to rights.

    Conspiracy theory stuff from the time said that there was more serious stuff still to come out and O’Farrell was leaving to avoid the real bodies being exhumed. However if that’s so, they’ve stayed pretty buried in the years since as far as I know.

  22. Hi Aqualung,

    I’m going to sell but I’m buggared if I can decide where I want to live PuffyTMD.

    Can’t go wrong with looking at Cairns in beautiful FNQ.

    Nice two bedroom units, townhouses and villas for under $300,000.

    Even less for one bedroom.

    Mines bought and ready to go for my imminent retirement.

    A bonus is that the good citizens of Cairns voted Labor back in at the State election so you will be surrounded by good people.

    Good luck with your search.

  23. Been There @ #1031 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 5:29 pm

    Hi Aqualung,

    I’m going to sell but I’m buggared if I can decide where I want to live PuffyTMD.

    Can’t go wrong with looking at Cairns in beautiful FNQ.

    Nice two bedroom units, townhouses and villas for under $300,000.

    Even less for one bedroom.

    Mines bought and ready to go for my imminent retirement.

    A bonus is that the good citizens of Cairns voted Labor back in at the State election so you will be surrounded by good people.

    Good luck with your search.

    Well I don’t know anyone outside Sydney so I guess Cairns is as good a place as any. I’m not a huge fan of humidity or cyclones though 😃
    The price is right. $300k in the super and some left to spoil myself hopefully.

  24. Frankly I’m sick of all out politicians. They’re almost all on the grift one way or another.

    Sure, Aqualung.
    We know Scotty never solicited upgrades from Joyce because we’d have been hearing about it non stop for the last 5 years if he had.

  25. Wow, there were some issues behind the scenes and it’s not as integrated as it first seems, but service NSW was one of the genuinely good things that came out of the last state government. That’s shit that Minns is cutting staff there……

    Minns is the best liberal premier this state has had

  26. I see that the Australian fluffy heath mouse has been added to the international red list of threatened species.

    The fossil fuel cartel vampires are draining the life out of the living.

  27. aqualung.

    A friend who is almost itinerant has had an investment unit in Cairns for a few years.
    Bought it because it was cheap(ish) and almost as a last resort refuge if things went seriously awry.
    They have a bit and she found herself needing a home and with not much prospect of finding one in Perth in the short term.
    So she loaded up her car and moved to cairns a couple of months ago when the lease conveniently expired.
    Asked if it was to be permanent move she said “I’ll tell you after the wet”
    She’s lived in Queensland before, but further south, so knows what she’s in for.

  28. I think the fluffy heath mouse was in trouble from foxes and cats long long before the fossil fuel cartel became a thing or Albo went begging for airline upgrades or anything else that troubles the usual suspects.
    Some people just can’t help themselves.

  29. Roy Morgan just dropped:
    Two Party Preferred Voting Intention
    October 21-27, 2024
    ALP
    50.5%
    Down 1.5%
    L-NP
    49.5%
    Up 1.5%

    Primary Voting Intention
    October 21-27, 2024
    ALP
    30.0
    L-NP
    37.5
    Greens
    14.0
    Ind./Oth.
    18.5

  30. 3h ago
    14.59 AEDT
    Petra Stock
    Petra Stock
    Greenwashing case against Santos gets under way

    A world-first greenwashing case that seeks to hold oil and gas company Santos accountable for its net zero commitments commenced in the federal court today.

    The case, brought by the shareholder group the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR), was the first to challenge the veracity of a company’s net zero emissions plan.

    ACCR alleged Santos made representations related to its net zero target and roadmap, which constituted misleading or deceptive conduct in breach of corporate and consumer laws.

    Proceedings began with Noel Hutley, SC establishing key parameters in the case, including the meaning of net zero.

    In opening remarks, Hutley quoted extensively from Santos’ public climate reports and company documents, drawing attention to the company’s reliance on blue hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and nature based offsets to achieve net zero, and its failure to disclose anticipated growth in emissions from oil and gas exploration.

    Opening statements will continue into Tuesday, with the case due to conclude on Friday 15 November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/oct/28/australia-news-live-telstra-and-optus-shut-down-3g-network-crisafulli-and-deputy-to-form-interim-cabinet-in-queensland

    Is anyone shocked by these alleged greenwashing charges ..?

  31. Service NSW at Blacktown used to be the RMS and MSB or whatever it’s now called. When I needed to renew my photo license with a new photo I could go in, pay my money, get my photo taken and 5 to 10 minutes later walk out the door with my brand new license in my hand. Then, service NSW took over and now you walk out the door with a piece of paper and a “you’ll receive your new license in the mail in the next 14 days”.
    In these days of identity theft I find that to not be a better service. Same with bank debit and credit cards.
    If I can work out that the return address on a piece of mail with what is obviously a card of some description inside is from SNSW or my bank, I’m sure thieves can too.
    In terms of staff interaction it’s a bit better but unless I need an answer to a specific question the concierge thing is overkill. Just have a personned info booth off to the side. Everything else works the same as the RMS days with a few extra departments thrown in which can actually make the waiting time longer.
    Online is better but you have to go in when your photo expires.

  32. Latest Morgan Poll, as alluded to by Thomas.
    Poll Period: Oct 21-27
    Sample: awaiting

    * ALP 30% (down 2)
    * LNP 37.5% (up 1)
    * GRN 14% (up 0.5)
    * Others/Indies 18.5% (up 0.5). No breakdown at this stage for pauline, which usually sits around 5%

    Their 2PP 50.5% ALP

    Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/

  33. I loved Cairns when I visited Rossmcg. A bit surprised to find it’s not actually right on the coast but nice and relaxing with plenty of national parks around.
    I’ve been to Nhulunbuy in the dry and the build up. The build up was a bit oppressive. I’m assuming Cairns is similar.

  34. Afr now reporting Albo didn’t declare partner upgrades overseas received from Qantas.

    Looks like this issue is going to run.

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