Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

One bad and one good result for federal Labor, plus findings on the monarch and the monarchy.

After ticking in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago, the latest Essential Research poll ticks back with a four point drop to 28% (down a point on two polls ago), while the Coalition recovers the point it lost last time to hit 35%. The Greens are steady on 12%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and undecided component is up one to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has shown a tight tussle for around a year now, has the Coalition up one to 48% and Labor down three to 46%. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which give Peter Dutton his best results to date, his approval up three to 45% and disapproval down three to 39%. Anthony Albanese is up two to 44% and up one on disapproval to 48%.

Further questions are inspired by the visit to Australia of King Charles III, including a finding of 50% approval and 26% disapproval of whatever it is that he does. A question on a republic finds a big drop in unsure since January, with support up three to 45% and opposition up four to 39%. A question on the rarely canvassed issue of federalism (at least, that’s how I would interpret it – the question didn’t actually mention the states) finds 61% considering the federal government has about the right amount of power, with 13% saying it should have more and 26% less. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1140.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll is quite a bit better for Labor, finding their primary vote up two to 32%, the Coalition down one to 36.5%, the Greens down half to 13.5% and One Nation down half to 5.5%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 52-48, after a tied result last time, while the previous election preferences measure has it at 53-47, out from 51-49. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,145 comments on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. I’m about to log off as there are a few storms heading through Brisbane, and I don’t wish to lose another computer.

    Upcoming “National” Polls:

    * Redbridge – due very soon. Keep an eye on the Samaras “X” feed.
    * YouGov – hopefully this Friday around lunchtime.
    * Newspoll – Sunday evening
    * Resolve & another Morgan – next Monday. (Morgan could be delayed as it comes out of Vic and there is a public holiday the following day)
    * Essential Report – Melb Cup day, in the morning. Comes out of NSW, so not affected.

  2. LVT. I said it would run. Asking for upgrades was a bit of a step up on what pollies generally do.

    That said, it might well turn out that Coalition MPs have done the same in the past. We’ll find out fairly quickly I reckon

  3. for sure Meher – no doubt there’ll be all sorts of research going on who as to who took what flights and under what circumstances.

    I thought it was interesting that Chalmers today said he had never solicited flights.

    I think the other issue is Albo doesnt see that he has done anything wrong. At the very least he should admit an error of judgement and repay the value of the freebies to Qantas to address the issue.

  4. Just because something is within the parliamentary rules doesn’t mean that it’s ‘appropriate’ in the eyes of the public.

  5. Eddy/Aqualung

    “ Remember when we were told that by paying our politicians better we’d attract better people into politics.
    Still waiting for the better politicians to run and be elected.”

    Aqualung, I always used to hear that if you pay peanuts you get monkeys. The actual truth is political perks leads to pigs with their snouts in the trough.
    ———————————————————————————————
    You are correct. I did some research on executive salaries in my thesis. I found there was no evidence higher exec salaries (public or private) could be linked to better performance or better quality applicants to a field.

    There was some evidence that below average salaries had a deterrent effect, but that was it. Paying more did not get better people.

  6. Carmel Tebbutt, the ex wife of Albanese, was a senior labor politician and deputy premier of NSW for three years.

    She declared all QANTAS flight upgrades on her NSW state register as she is required to do.

    Cheers.

  7. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:19 pm
    [for sure Meher – no doubt there’ll be all sorts of research going on who as to who took what flights and under what circumstances.]

    [I thought it was interesting that Chalmers today said he had never solicited flights.]

    [I think the other issue is Albo doesnt see that he has done anything wrong. At the very least he should admit an error of judgement and repay the value of the freebies to Qantas to address the issue]

    What a lot of garbage you ratbag, politicians of all varieties have been requesting and been given upgrades as a regular feature of the “one day in the life of a….. ”
    The Liberals have been at it yonks.
    It’s a non-issue and will be buried quickly.
    The only people interested are wannabe reporters/journalists/ misfits/ and drunks.

  8. Luigi Smithsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:31 pm
    Every cloud has a silver lining. The house at Copacabana is yesterday’s news now.
    _____________________
    It feeds into the narrative perfectly. We have a prime minister who loves the high life and whose sole motivation is money and freebies.

  9. ABC News saying Chalmers is the only Labor leader admitting that the Queensland result was a disaster- virtually no seats outside greater Brisbane. Can “the Prime Minister has my full support” be far off?

  10. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:39 pm
    [Goll serious question , do you understand the meaning of “solicit”?]

    Get out of your box more often rather than solicit a stupid response!

  11. michaelsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:56 pm
    Parliament sits 3 times in November in a particular season. Wonder if anyone will decide times up.

    If Labor actually wants to win, then someone is going to have to challenge for the leadership if their primary is still stuck around 30% just before the summer break.

    Can Albo do something to boost their polling or is he now a lame duck ?

  12. Rex if it stays around 50-50 Albo survives, but if Dutton gets a clear lead in November then the meetings in parliament may get interesting.

  13. I think Albo could have fronted a Morals campaign as a defender of women’s right to choose if the Copacabana and QANTAS upgrades scandals hadn’t surfaced.

  14. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:47 pm
    ABC News saying Chalmers is the only Labor leader admitting that the Queensland result was a disaster- virtually no seats outside greater Brisbane. Can “the Prime Minister has my full support” be far off?
    ____________________
    He’s certainly drawing attention to Queensland and how a Queensland PM might make things different.

  15. You couldn’t make this stuff up – experts on Peter Dutton’s nuclear “plans” where he cites Ontario (Canada) as an example of how they’ll do it.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-couldn-t-make-this-up-expert-pans-ontario-nuclear-option-20241028-p5klx1.html

    Of course you can make it up. It’s what Liberals do all the time.

    Dr Graeme Readfearn says that Dutton’s nuclear “plans” are like Scott Morrison’s lump of coal in Parliament performance.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/28/peter-dutton-liberal-coalition-nuclear-plan-parliament-inquiry

    I disagree. It’s actually the reincarnation of Tony Abbott’s Direct Inaction. Like Direct Inaction, it will never prevent the escape of a single CO2 molecule into the atmosphere, at least not until about 2045 in the unlikely event that any reactors are actually built. As Malcolm Turnbull said of Direct Inaction back in 2009, the Coalition’s nuclear “plans” are nothing more than a figleaf to hide their intention to do nothing.

  16. Arky @ #1029 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 4:24 pm

    @VCT: “I remember one NSW Premier walking over a bottle of wine”

    Actually, he walked over misleading ICAC about that bottle of wine.

    Even then, there was a general disbelief that he didn’t try to tough it out on the basis it was an inadvertent and pretty minor bit of misleading, even given that it was a time when ICAC’s word was holy writ in NSW, before the Libs nobbled it in the eyes of partisans. Compare and contrast to Berejiklian trying to tough it out despite being caught bang to rights.

    Conspiracy theory stuff from the time said that there was more serious stuff still to come out and O’Farrell was leaving to avoid the real bodies being exhumed. However if that’s so, they’ve stayed pretty buried in the years since as far as I know.

    I had the feeling at the time that he had just got tired of politics and he grabbed it as a way to get out without having to explain he just didn’t care any more

  17. I think it will take a Newspoll of 30 or less before Labor overcomes the RGR PTSD – although if it turns out Albo has bought a luxury cruising boat or something that might prompt immediate action.

  18. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:18 pm
    I think it will take a Newspoll of 30 or less before Labor overcomes the RGR PTSD – although if it turns out Albo has bought a luxury cruising boat or something that might prompt immediate action.
    _____________________
    Either a boat or he starts wearing a gold cape or the like.

  19. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:56 pm
    [Sorry goll thats an incorrect use of solicit. If you dont understand the meaning of the word i cant help you.]

    You can’t even help yourself ratbag.

    You will find that any politician after being given an upgrade will refer the matter to the particular staff member who “solicited” the upgrade.

    Of this issue you know nothing regarding its regularity over many years, the manner in which it has worked and the political recipients of the beneficiaries of these upgrades.

    The little Irish prick previously running Qantas and the reduction of his ridiculous “finish” bonuses and their recalculation is what’s behind this brouhaha about upgrades.

    Lars stop being a smart arse.

  20. Aqualung @ #1048 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 5:33 pm

    I loved Cairns when I visited Rossmcg. A bit surprised to find it’s not actually right on the coast but nice and relaxing with plenty of national parks around.
    I’ve been to Nhulunbuy in the dry and the build up. The build up was a bit oppressive. I’m assuming Cairns is similar.

    I believe the Cairns climate is more pleasant than further south, particularly Townsville. On my brief visits ( including summer) that has certainly been the case .

  21. Steve777says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:20 pm
    Upgrade-gate is a beatup. Next!
    _____________________
    There is bound to be more. He is a serial offender.
    He just can’t help himself.

  22. Politicians should not be accepting these Qantas Chairman Lounge memberships in the first place however what’s being reported is that Albo was going a step further and seeking and receiving upgrades directly through the CEO. Wonder why Qatar airways was blocked from additional slots?

    It’s no doubt a bad look and is just another instance to justify in people’s minds that politicians are in the pockets of big business.

  23. davesays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:27 pm
    [goll you should apologize to Lars for that unseemly attack

    Nath
    I was wondering when you’d start using your “little fingers”

  24. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:05 pm
    If Labor actually wants to win, then someone is going to have to challenge for the leadership if their primary is still stuck around 30% just before the summer break.

    Can Albo do something to boost their polling or is he now a lame duck ?
    _____________________
    A lame duck. No one can be bothered with him anymore. Australians have finally discovered what type of person he really is.
    I had him sussed way back when he took that chopper ride with Andrews to Lindsay Fox’s compound at Portsea.
    Then the way he treated the young organiser at the DV rally.

  25. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:33 pm
    It’s good to be the King !

    [https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/pm-anthony-albanese-caught-quaffing-500-red-in-margaret-river-during-cost-of-living-crisis-c-12916881]

    Just to know the name of the publication is to know it’s bullshit.
    You’re being a real “try hard” this evening.
    You’ve even got TaylorMade interested !

  26. Goll

    One would hope that the $500 bottle of red aged better than the story. It ran out of puff pretty quickly.

    If comparing that to the Qantas business is the best the usual suspects can manage there’s nothing to see here.

  27. @Socrates – “You are correct. I did some research on executive salaries in my thesis. I found there was no evidence higher exec salaries (public or private) could be linked to better performance or better quality applicants to a field.

    There was some evidence that below average salaries had a deterrent effect, but that was it. Paying more did not get better people. ”

    How do you actually judge this and find out who’s not applying because they see the salary is too low and what the quality of applicants really is?

    I know I’ve avoided applying for many interesting looking gigs over time because the pay is not enough although the seniority is at my level. Pertinent to this discussion, I have skipped past so many government job ads over time because the pay is too shit relative to seniority and workload.

    I have sat through a number of seminars in which we are told this shibboleth of as long as the salary is above a certain base level, the money doesn’t really matter to people anywhere near as much as various soft factors. It has always come across to me as the sort of research CEOs love to justify not giving raises to more senior employees and managers, but I don’t really buy it.

    Unless you’re in one of the cushiest jobs like Secretary of a Department, most government gigs pay worse than the equivalent in the private sector. They get a mix of people who are good but need the flexibility (but private sector has got so much better about flexibility in the last decade) and people who are just not as good.

    The ACCC, ASIC and ATO suffer badly from this within my fields of expertise. They are basically staffed by people not good enough to be on the side opposing them, and it shows up over and over and over and over, and the ones who do turn out to be good tend to get hired away to the private sector to work against their old colleagues. At best the government pays for a top private sector person to come in and head the agency and then they suffer from regulatory capture anyway.

  28. Just got polled by Community Engagement Limited.

    Asked very specific question about favourability of local ALP Federal member.

  29. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:42 pm
    Then there are the events:

    [https://7news.com.au/video/sport/tennis/pm-anthony-albanese-waves-to-the-crowd-during-the-australian-open-bc-6319437153112]

    Keep digging fella/felladella

  30. My only word on Albo and the Qantas upgrades – he shouldn’t have been doing it. It’s pretty clear that the vast majority of pollies do it and it has become normalised behaviour when it shouldn’t. People like Dutton, Bandt and McKenzie are already taking backfires as a result.

    It has however been not just going on but declared for literally a decade or more so running it as a story now is clearly just opportunism.

    Regardless, Albo would be well advised to say he’s going to stop doing it, that he hopes the rest of Parliament including Dutton and Bandt will follow his lead, and then leave it there rather than being too brazen it out.

  31. davidwhsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:49 pm
    [I think he was seen drinking a bottle of $500 red while traveling on QANTAS first class paid for by his Irish mate.]

    The “little mate” wasn’t paying for it!

    At least Albo hasn’t delved into the Negrita spritzers !

  32. gollsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 8:41 pm
    mj
    [what’s being reported ]

    There in is the problem

    —–

    He’s not denied it, simply said it’s declared so he’s done nothing wrong legally.

  33. ” Regardless, Albo would be well advised to say he’s going to stop doing it, that he hopes the rest of Parliament including Dutton and Bandt will follow his lead, and then leave it there…”

    Actually, just ban all gifts over a certain value, say $200, except perhaps from close family members.

    I seem to recall there was a Yes Minister episode on the subject of gifts…

  34. tip …

    ICEBERG
    ————————————————-
    Good on ya Albo.
    I’da had my snout in every trough going if I was PM for a week.
    Albo’s charitable donations, not walking past bums sitting on the footpath with the hat out, what’s his form like there?

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