After ticking in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago, the latest Essential Research poll ticks back with a four point drop to 28% (down a point on two polls ago), while the Coalition recovers the point it lost last time to hit 35%. The Greens are steady on 12%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and undecided component is up one to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has shown a tight tussle for around a year now, has the Coalition up one to 48% and Labor down three to 46%. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which give Peter Dutton his best results to date, his approval up three to 45% and disapproval down three to 39%. Anthony Albanese is up two to 44% and up one on disapproval to 48%.
Further questions are inspired by the visit to Australia of King Charles III, including a finding of 50% approval and 26% disapproval of whatever it is that he does. A question on a republic finds a big drop in unsure since January, with support up three to 45% and opposition up four to 39%. A question on the rarely canvassed issue of federalism (at least, that’s how I would interpret it – the question didn’t actually mention the states) finds 61% considering the federal government has about the right amount of power, with 13% saying it should have more and 26% less. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1140.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll is quite a bit better for Labor, finding their primary vote up two to 32%, the Coalition down one to 36.5%, the Greens down half to 13.5% and One Nation down half to 5.5%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 52-48, after a tied result last time, while the previous election preferences measure has it at 53-47, out from 51-49. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.
We should be like Singapore!?! And all live in apartments, except for the wealthiest few? Yeah nah.
The IMF says Aussie inflation will be 3.6% by the end of 2025 and growth will be 1.2% off the back of massive immigration.
I wonder what those numbers mean politically?
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 9:31 pm
BW
That video you mention @ 9:12 comes from China Observer which has hundreds if not thousands of anti CCP videos.
A 20 second internet search shows that China Observer is part of Vision Times a front for the Falun Gong’
=====================
Thanks, OC, useful to know. Those Falun Gong refugees never forget and never forgive.
IMO, the main messages in the video are consistent with just about everything else that is publicly available:
1. China has subsidized EVs, solar and batteries to the tune of $230 billion.
2. There is massive over capacity in China.
3. China is trying to export this massive over capacity at dumping rates.
4. This has triggered a trade war with 100%+ tariffs in the EU and the US.
5. Some degree of factory closures and the job losses is consistent with the general slowdown in China’s economy.
6. The over capacity is part of the structural economic issue of potential or actual deflation.
Incidentally,
1. The various factory shots show a very, very high degree of automation. Just so impressive, IMO.
2. Australia should be a net beneficiary as we should benefit from cheaper EVs, solar panels and batteries. EV prices are plummeting. A couple of years ago the cheapest EV in Australia was around $45,000. It is now $31,000. I imagine solar panel and battery prices have shown a somewhat similar trajectory.
Morning all. BW the EV and battery question is curious. No doubt China is subsidising both. Yet the prices should have been lower by now anyway.
EVs are not that expensive to build. There is an R&D cost to recover in the first models made. But once that is paid the price should drop.
The biggest reason for the high price is the battery cost. Yet the price of lithium and other rare earth minerals has fallen dramatically.
I find myself wondering why non-Chinese EV prices have not also fallen. Some western car makers have quietly backed off EV investment IMO.
https://essentialreport.com.au/questions/national-mood-2
I note the latest Essential Vision report has direction of country at right 30%, … wrong over 50%.
Apparently Chucky III is outpolling both the PM and LOTO??? I note SBS quoted reparations impairment for colonialism at UKP37B to UKP200B.
There are some European models that are cheap, but not domestically – huge mark ups on their northern hemisphere prices. Renault 5, Fiat 500e, VW ID4.
They’re not cheap cars here, costing a good amount more than their Chinese counterparts (BYD, GWM ora, gm 4), but much worse in terms of build quality and standard inclusions. Legacy car makers aren’t taking the Chinese manufacturers (nor the aust market) seriously.
Once again Fed labor has brought in too many people cannot get rid of them quickly due to appeals etc .
This situation is going beyond the next election as housing starts are going backwards as well under failed fed labor government.Own goals all over the shop interest rates most likely up next year not down in Australia.
Jobs being created going to imported labor as unemployment has been ticking up for a year.Per capita recession for almost two years.
Australia has passed peak woke. So has the rest of the Western World.
The polls reflect this.
Much as the Left hate to admit, the world is not one of nancy-boys and Valkyrie-like throw-men-around women.
Soc and Banquo
Thanks.
The collapse in lithium feedstock and in battery prices in China is mainly a 2024 phenomenon so may not have fed its way into vehicle prices yet.
Soc. I think it was panic stations when they realized that China had stolen a march and that practically the entire western manufacturing industry was worthless, that production chains could not be economically modified to switch to EVs, that they did not have the IP (Tesla excepted) and that many of the companies had monster debts and also lacked the capital heft for the retooling. The tariffs are, presumably, to buy time.
I notice that Toyota has just announced hydrogen tank swap technology so they haven’t given up on that.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-reveals-game-changing-hydrogen-tank-swap-techology/
I notice that Tesla has been forced into some hefty price cuts.
One issue with buying a Chinese EV is that there is going to be some significant rationalization and the risk is being left holding a stranded asset.
I don’t know how the Australian vehicle emissions standards will ‘manage’ our market but assume they will have a cumulative impact in speeding up the transition from ICE to EV.
The haters will love the 28%, go ballistic and have a field day.
The sunset media mobs and the (not our) ABC are achieving fantastic results with their servings of “takeaway” media burgers, freshly “cooked”, “grab ya fries ” and following up with “soothing, over sweetened sundaes” ensuring the “pour” know what side their burger rolls are “buttered on”.
Some “know it all” will remind us all today that the Australian voters aren’t stupid.
Australia “deserves” Dutton as a treat!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
The Australian economy will hobble into the new year with unemployment likely to climb and facing the risk of policy turmoil due to Donald Trump returning to the White House, two new outlooks on the nation have warned. Shane Wright tells us that as federal Housing Minister Clare O’Neil urged state governments to axe stamp duty on home sales, analysis from the International Monetary Fund and Deloitte Access Economics suggests that 2025 will deliver ongoing economic challenges for the winner of next year’s federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/you-thought-2024-was-tough-imf-warns-of-more-troubles-ahead-20241022-p5kk6s.html
“Get this into your head: we are now short of workers, not jobs”, declares Ross Gittins. Last week, he says, something strange happened without anyone noticing. We got the best monthly report on the jobs market we’ve ever had, and it was greeted with dismay. He asks why it was that last week’s good news greeted with dismay? Because it was taken to mean the Reserve Bank will be in no hurry to start cutting interest rates. You know the media: always look on the dark side of life.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/get-this-into-your-head-we-are-now-short-of-workers-not-jobs-20241022-p5kkak.html
Anthony Albanese’s signature climate change, economic, trade, foreign and national security policies face being up-ended if Donald Trump wins the November 5 election, writes Geoff Chambers.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-trump-effect-instils-anxiety-in-labor-ranks/news-story/09370d8f49ec64dfc23108d22ba262b2?amp
The Albanese government must introduce new measures to boost the uptake of renewables in the existing power grid at least cost for consumers, say energy industry players who warn that without a renewed push Australia risks missing its 2030 targets. The warning was led by Climate Change Authority chairman Matt Kean, who said that the Albanese government would need new policy ideas to meet an end-decade goal for 82 per cent renewable energy, despite the expansion of the Capacity Investment Scheme to underwrite clean energy projects.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/more-renewable-policies-needed-to-reach-2030-target-kean-20241022-p5kk7e
The AFR’s summit was a missed opportunity for the Coalition to give more information on the nuclear option to a room of stakeholders who want policy certainty and to get on with Australia’s clean energy transition.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/o-brien-misses-chance-to-detail-the-case-for-nuclear-20241021-p5kk3s
Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien says the sheer upfront cost of nuclear energy requires taxpayers to build and own the seven nuclear power plants the Coalition is pledging, as he committed to release an economic case for the policy by the end of the year. Phil Coorey writes that Ted O’Brien said the business case would go beyond initial costings and the year-end promise would allow adequate time for scrutiny before the election, due by mid-May.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-pledges-nuclear-details-before-christmas-20241022-p5kk5u
“After the first teal tide, I said Liberals must change forever. Well, our time’s up”, declares Michael Yabsley, a former federal treasurer of the Liberal Party. The Pittwater defeat is another kick in the backside for a Liberal Party that struggles to learn from its organisational mistakes. It shines a light – again – on the need for organisational reform. In his day as premier, Nick Greiner was fond of reminding his colleagues that their party was keen on reform for everything but itself. That mindset remains, he says.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/after-the-first-teal-tide-i-said-liberals-must-change-forever-well-our-time-s-up-20241021-p5kk0y.html
Coalition senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price wants abortion on the national agenda, declaring pregnancies ended after the first trimester are immoral and arguing late-stage abortions were akin to infanticide. Paul Sakkal and Natassia Chrysanthos write that as Peter Dutton sought to dodge the issue while it engulfs Queensland’s state election campaign, former prime minister Tony Abbott backed the right of Coalition members to retain a conscience vote on the matter.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senator-jacinta-nampijinpa-price-wants-abortion-on-the-national-agenda-as-debate-engulfs-state-politics-20241022-p5kkdk.html
Stuntwoman Lidia Thorpe gets the headlines, but won’t get outcomes, writes David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stuntwoman-lidia-thorpe-gets-the-headlines-but-won-t-get-outcomes-20241022-p5kk7k.html
First Nations people need to hear an apology on behalf of the King’s reign and those that preceded him, declares The Age’s editorial.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/it-s-time-king-charles-to-do-the-right-thing-by-the-indigenous-peoples-20241022-p5kkc7.html
Thorpe’s cry of outrage at King Charles echoes a long history of frustration, says Tony Wright.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/thorpe-s-cry-of-outrage-at-king-echoes-a-long-history-of-frustration-20241022-p5kkbg.html
Crikey’s recent revelation that some 170 politicians and media commentators have had overseas trips fully or partly funded by particular interest groups, shines a spotlight on a deeply embedded problem in our political and media institutions. Coalition figures appear to be the most frequent beneficiaries of this duchessing, writes Allan Patience.
https://johnmenadue.com/on-the-gravy-train-venality-and-a-misplaced-sense-of-entitlement-are-corrupting-democratic-institutions-in-contemporary-australia/
There are countless proposals to “fix” housing in Australia. The latest off the block: the Coalition has re-proposed a policy from the 2022 election. This policy allows people to access 40 per cent of their super balance, up to $50,000. Variations of these housing policies are a Band-Aid over a gunshot wound. Common sense suggests this “affordability policy” is going to push house prices in exactly the wrong direction as more demand enters the market, argues investment specialist, Shani Jayamanne. She says that superannuation either needs to be safeguarded or it might as well be made voluntary.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/want-to-fix-housing-stay-away-from-our-super-20241022-p5kkai.html
Treasury will likely need to increase its net migration forecast for 2024-25, which may set the scene for a Peter Dutton-style, immigration-focused election, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/treasurys-net-migration-data-playing-into-duttons-narrative,19094
Residents and small business owners would get cheaper power under a proposed renewable energy scheme covering at least four inner Melbourne councils, explains Tom Cowie.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cheaper-power-promised-under-renewable-energy-bulk-buy-schemes-20241022-p5kk7v.html
After winning the Gold Walkley for the PwC tax leak scandal, the AFR’s Neil Chenoweth has produced another scorching tax story – one calling into question double standards in the treatment of tax fraud along with exposing the greed and venality of the extremely rich. Michael Pascoe reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/chris-ellison-ato-mates-rates-for-tax-evasion-scheme/
After 18 months of battling, lawyer Kirsty Evans has lost any faith she once had in our insurance industry. She says that over recent years, the actions of Australia’s biggest insurance companies, enabled by the government and local councils, sets a new standard in appalling behaviour.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/after-18-months-of-battling-i-ve-lost-any-faith-i-once-had-in-our-insurance-industry-20241020-p5kjr0.html
Australian Bureau of Statistics’ data sets show GDP at odds with labour force statistics — which makes no economic sense, writes Stephen Koukoulas.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-economic-data-does-not-compute,19095
Ariel Bogle explains how Woolworths workers are tracked and timed under a new efficiency crackdown. This REEKS of Bad Management 1.01!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/23/woolworths-staff-efficiency-productivity-crackdown-timed
The Pharmacy Guild, an influential lobby group representing thousands of pharmacies, says the $8.8 billion merger between Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse should not proceed because the group would control more than half the revenue in the sector and offers to lessen the impact are tokenistic. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission is assessing whether to allow the deal to go ahead, and is expected to decide early next month. It has already delayed its decision twice, and described the transaction as a major structural change to the pharmacy market.
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/pharmacy-lobby-says-chemist-warehouse-concessions-are-tokenistic-20241016-p5kiue
Kate McClymont, Max Mason and Nick McKenzie collaborate to tell us more about Richard White. This time it’s about a $7m luxury house he bought for an employee he was in a relationship with.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/billionaire-richard-white-had-a-relationship-with-an-employee-and-gave-her-a-7-million-mansion-20241022-p5kk7d.html
Elizabeth Knight writes about Alan Joyce’s final legacy – a massive industrial relations damages bill.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/alan-joyce-s-final-legacy-a-massive-industrial-relations-damage-bill-20241022-p5kk9y.html
A small agency rapped over the knuckles for spending too much on consultancies has continued to shell out millions on outsourced contracts, spending even more in the 12 months following a review than in the year prior. The Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission’s multimillion-dollar outlay is increasingly directed towards complex IT systems as the Albanese government invests $1.4 billion in aged care tech. And still the commission seeks more and more detailed reporting from aged care facilities to feed said machine!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8796168/acqsc-faces-scrutiny-over-escalating-it-consultancy-spend/?cs=14329
Land on Melbourne’s fringes will be unlocked for development paving the way for thousands of new homes to be built in Melbourne’s growing outer suburbs. The Victorian government has said the release of the land was estimated to be the biggest one-off commitment to unlock land for housing-and-land developments in the state’s history, guaranteeing timelines for 27 new greenfield areas in coming years.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/land-for-thousands-of-new-homes-to-be-freed-up-on-melbourne-s-fringes-20241022-p5kkf4.html
Police say they have arrested the alleged leader of a $30 million illicit tobacco syndicate in one of the most significant breakthroughs since the start of Melbourne’s tobacco wars, but warn the arrest won’t put an end to the wave of violence that has so far been linked to 109 firebombings.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/police-arrest-alleged-leader-of-30m-crime-syndicate-but-warn-tobacco-wars-are-here-to-stay-20241022-p5kkcm.html
White supremacists chanting “white power” and “Australia for the white man” have been pushed away from a refugee protest in Melbourne after turning up yesterday evening. The masked group attempted to crash the final night of a 100-day refugee encampment outside the Department of Home Affairs in Docklands.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2024/10/23/refugee-protest-white-supremacists
It’s time Australia called in the big guns on the social media firms. Our democracy is at risk, writes Belinda Barnet.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/australia-news-media-bargaining-code-meta-social-media
Independent tests have linked PFAS contamination in the Blue Mountains to the site of a 1992 petrol tanker crash, explain Ben Cubby and Carrie Fellner.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-forever-chemical-tests-zero-in-on-contamination-source-20241022-p5kkdj.html
It seemed that everyone on one side of politics has been clamouring to hear from Jordan Peterson, the reactionary Canadian psychologist best known for apocalyptic ramblings about the death of Western civilisation and life advice for teenage boys who just can’t seem to get a girl. But alas, the big guy was a no-show at his own conference in Sydney yesterday. He had a visa problem. Have a look at the names associated with his strange organisation!
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/jordan-peterson-a-no-show-at-australian-conference-after-visa-fail-20241022-p5kkfi.html
The potential disruption to trade and the global economy if Trump were to implement his policies could undermine the growth and stability required to keep that build-up of public debt from destabilising economies and financial systems. It could be the trigger for a global recession, or worse. Russia and China would like to help Trump disrupt the established order says Stephen Bartholomeusz writing about warnings from the IMF and the World Bank.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-trump-shadow-hovers-as-the-global-economy-breaks-apart-20241022-p5kk71.html
Rudy Giuliani must give control of his New York City apartment, a 1980s Mercedes-Benz once owned by Lauren Bacall, several luxury watches and many other assets to two Georgia election workers he defamed. Lewis Liman, a US district judge in New York, appointed Ruby Freeman and her daughter Shaye Moss as recipients of the property and gave the former New York mayor and Trump confidante seven days to turn over the assets.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/22/rudy-giuliani-defamation-georgia-election-assets
In the 18 months after the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, leading more than a dozen states to implement near-total abortion bans, hundreds more babies died than expected, new research has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/22/baby-deaths-roe-wade-abortion-bans
News organisations in America have been accused of “sane-washing” Donald Trump’s outrageous behaviour on the campaign trail and failing to highlight his wavering mental faculties. Parker McKenzie writes that his radical statements and bizarre behaviour have escalated in recent weeks, as he mused about using the military against United States citizens, lied about legal immigrants eating people’s pets, talked about a sports star’s penis, and spent more than 30 minutes nodding on stage to music.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2024/10/22/sanewashing-donald-trump
“Elon Musk is trying to buy the US election for Donald Trump. What does he want in return?”, asks Arwa Mahdawi.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/elon-musk-is-trying-to-buy-the-us-election-for-donald-trump-what-does-he-want-in-return
Farrah Tomazin tells us about the fears of election officials in the US. America is f****d!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-trump-shadow-hovers-as-the-global-economy-breaks-apart-20241022-p5kk71.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Simon Letch
Spooner’s had another relapse!
From the US
Boerwar
Remember the “wise sages” saying “Datsuns will never catch on” and “you’d never get me in a Toyota Bluebird” !
I don’t find the 4% drop in Labor support reported by Essential to be credible. What would have caused it? Not that business with Albo’s new home, nor any other recent developments.
The sample size was 1,140, which would bring a margin of error of about 3%. Labor’s 32% a fortnight ago might have been too high, this week’s 28% might be too low. Or maybe it’s been about 30% all along.
”I don’t know how the Australian vehicle emissions standards will ‘manage’ our market but assume they will have a cumulative impact in speeding up the transition from ICE to EV.”
There seems to be a lot of uncertainty with EV’s in Australia at the moment. I think I’ll keep my 11 year old Holden going for another few years before deciding whether to make the switch.
There are some private English attempts at compensation for slavery particularly Heirs of Slavery
https://www.heirsofslavery.org/our-purpose
One of their leaders is Laura Trevelyan who has donated £100k to Grenada, which her family used to own.
Trevelyan is the 3x great granddaughter of Sir Charles Trevelyan who is blamed by most Irish for the effects of the great famine.
She was a BBC journalist who was sent to Northern Ireland during the negotiations for Good Friday and, knowing nothing of her forebear, was shocked at the reaction of republicans when she introduced herself. Martin McGuinness was particularly enraged by her appointment, which he saw as a deliberate British government insult rather than a lack of cultural awareness by the BBC. Lately Trevelyan has offered to give compensation to the Irish government but she has been ignored.
Blog Intro.
Further questions are inspired by the visit to Australia of King Charles III, including a finding of 50% approval and 26% disapproval of whatever it is that he does.
_____________________
He provides stability William.
I bought a new Chinese EV this year because its what I can afford, while still being an EV.
The stranded asset issue isn’t a concern for me, because I’m not interested in upgrading. I was more concerned about holding on to an ICE for 10 years with fuel prices going crazy.
It probably would’ve made more sense to buy a second hand model given how cheap some of those can be had for, but it’s my first new car and I like it 🙂
Thanks, BK.
‘Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien says the sheer upfront cost of nuclear energy requires taxpayers to build and own the seven nuclear power plants the Coalition is pledging, as he committed to release an economic case for the policy by the end of the year. Phil Coorey writes that Ted O’Brien said the business case would go beyond initial costings and the year-end promise would allow adequate time for scrutiny before the election, due by mid-May.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-pledges-nuclear-details-before-christmas-20241022-‘
================
Bloody socialists.
‘Banquo911 says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 8:00 am
I bought a new Chinese EV this year because its what I can afford, while still being an EV.
The stranded asset issue isn’t a concern for me, because I’m not interested in upgrading. I was more concerned about holding on to an ICE for 10 years with fuel prices going crazy.
It probably would’ve made more sense to buy a second hand model given how cheap some of those can be had for, but it’s my first new car and I like it ‘
=====================
Nice. We are in the teetering phase, made easy because we have basically transitioned to mass transit.
‘goll says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 7:46 am
Boerwar
Remember the “wise sages” saying “Datsuns will never catch on” and “you’d never get me in a Toyota Bluebird” !’
==============
Haha. We loved our Datto!
Dutton is uncharacteristically mute on the abortion issue.
Gutless.
I’d say staying shtum is pretty on brand for Dutton. Doesn’t seem like Price’s comments to SMH on abortion have captured wider media attention yet, didn’t make it in to Crikey’s Worm, or Guardian’s Morning Mail. Google News search for Jacinta Price just turns up the original SMH article.
Some more excellent news! One of the fossileer talking points was how horrible all those solar panels going to land fill…
Note also how China’s overcapacity is percolating through the global solar panel market.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/australia-renewable-energy-solar-waste
An evolutionary perspective on opposition to abortion:
https://theconversation.com/what-really-drives-anti-abortion-beliefs-research-suggests-its-a-matter-of-sexual-strategies-186005
TL:DR – ultimately, marriage traditionalists want to increase the cost of non-traditional sex because they benefit by having everyone else play by their rules. Like other evolutionary strategies, this would rarely be a consciously thought-out one.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 7:34 am
“Once again Fed labor has brought in too many people cannot get rid of them quickly due to appeals etc .”
I believe the people on country around what is now called Sydney Harbour in 1788 had the same dilemma
#weatheronPB
Nourishing clean air,
stretches up to a bright sky,
spoiled by dull smudges.
Bravo Goll.
The now disgraced fed labor gov are bringing in so many people it takes ten minutes to read the above article on immigration etc to try and understand how they are failing in reducing numbers.In Fact the labor government is backtracking on sending students home the article says and has and still is blowing out the figures.
There’s your inflation folks and lies instead of action from labor means interest rates and rents are going nowhere but up under the federal labor government.2.3 million on some sort of visa in Australia at the moment.
No wonder a massive amount of Aussies think Australia is going in the wrong direction.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 8:04 am
—
Lucy will let Charlie kick the football this time, I promise.
From Kevin Bonham:
“Federal 2PP Aggregated Polling Estimate
50.3-49.7 to ALP
Last update 23 October (Essential)
This is a “what I say the polls say now”, not a prediction.
Click here for methods summary.”
I have a Chinese EV. It was expensive. But there are many positives:
– It was under the luxury car tax limit, which is much higher for an EV, which means that…
– there is no FBT on a novated lease. The saving here is substantial.
– No running costs, it charges off the home solar
– No servicing costs for the first five years. And servicing is only every 2 years anyway. And they basically just need to top up the brake fluid and check the brake pads.
All up it’s a cheaper proposition than any other car I’ve owned, even though it notionally cost twice as much. Best of all, it’s a Volvo and regardless of who owns them this week and where they are made, the fit and finish is excellent as are the safety features. It also goes like the clappers, acceleration in these things has to be experienced to be believed.
Most importantly, not a penny goes to that prick Elon Musk.
If someone is in the market for a car and in a position where they can acquire an EV through a novated lease I would encourage them to do the numbers.
‘Thomas says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 8:54 am
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 8:04 am
—
Lucy will let Charlie kick the football this time, I promise.’
==================
haha
” Doesn’t seem like Price’s comments to SMH on abortion have captured wider media attention yet, didn’t make it in to Crikey’s Worm, or Guardian’s Morning Mail. Google News search for Jacinta Price just turns up the original SMH article.”
I guess if it isn’t critical of Labor or Israel Crikey and the Guardian aren’t interested these days.
‘autocrat says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 8:55 am
…’
================
Novated lease? Yep. Two rellies did this. Yuge advantage. (Middle class welfare, but, hey!)
A mate of mine got a Volvo new but has since sold it. He lost his nerve in it going serious outback bush bashing. (He did buy the spare wheel).
pied piper says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 7:34 am
Once again Fed labor has brought in too many people cannot get rid of them quickly due to appeals etc .
—
Not a fan of due process, I see.
Murdoch media and the LNP are getting into an absolute frenzy over what Lidia Thorpe said.
Meanwhile Murdoch media in the US (Fox News) is doing all it can to support a convicted criminal and conman wanting to be the most powerful person in the world.
People come here as students then lie and appeal even though their visa has expired. kick them out or put them in detention.
Mind you they are damaging labor the most.
And looking at BludgerTrack 2025, https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/index.htm, it seems to have 2.PP as 49.8% gov and 50.2% opp.
Since the election the gov is down 2.3% and the opp up 2.3%.
Greens and centrist/ blue Libs lite 43.5%, Libferals/ Nats and PHON 45.6% of the PV … here’s to the crossbenchers!
PPM is the PM/ ‘… Albo’ (though supposedly that skews to the incumbent). I can’t imagine voting for the LOTO/ ‘Reichspotato’ anymore than TDJT.
Net sat better for LOTO???
Arkysays:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 9:01 am
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GA doesn’t have much in the way of auspol going up this last week, mostly royals and Thorpe. A very one eyed review of the Greens’ work in the QLD election, but otherwise its GA big upping the feds for their social media committee, and criticism for LNP housing. Crikey has a big USA election focus atm, otherwise its the home page is mostly coalition and big business critical, with a couple of exceptions (NACC, Plibersek, right to protest/strike).
I said Dutton had a glass jaw yesterday, but I think if you can’t handle any criticism of ‘your team’ while they are running the bloody well country, you’re probably giving him a run for his money.
I have a Chinese EV (MG4)…sold both the Hilux and the Corolla hybrid, so own outright…just finished our first year and all up, $500 paid in charging (both home and public) —-> 3.3cents/km.
Still a year away from my first free service, drives like a dream (beautifully balanced, quiet and oodles of power.
I remember an old uncle who wouldn’t come outside to see my new Datto (1977) owing to his wartime experiences, which was understandable. What would he say to the ‘Real Aussies’ and their Toyota 4WD ‘icons’ these days?
pied piper, whilst that’s a great Liberal party talking point, it isn’t the case.
I know 2 people who work in the student visa world and the due process is incredibly tight, particularly since the Liberals got kicked out. Most organizations have to achieve evidence level 2 (majority of universities) or evidence level 3 (everyone else) for their students to get in the country.
Literally no education provider wants to be EL3 as it kills their intake and they put a LOT of effort into ensuring their international students dont skip out on study.
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/education-program/what-we-do/evidence-levels
Pretty soon after the last fed election I thought we were probably looking at the last ever majority Commonwealth government. That is looking increasingly likely as the centre fails to hold.
Over the past two and a half years the Overton window has shifted to the right and has also stretched dramatically, with extreme far right and extreme far left extreme parties now further apart than ever before.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 5:39 am
We should be like Singapore!?! And all live in apartments, except for the wealthiest few? Yeah nah.
————
We are completely different to Singapore land wise, we’re not a city state limited to 700 sq km of land as you should probably realise and acknowledge.
Australia is kind of set up though as a federation of 5 separate city states which places unnecessarily tight competition for housing/land/jobs in the largest cities.
Whitlam was the last PM with a plan to decentralise population, he wanted Albury-Wodonga to become a major inland city – it’s a shame plans like this were never followed through on. And it seems completely beyond the capacity of the visionless governments of current times to even conceive let alone develop.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albury-Wodonga_Development_Corporation
‘Dog’s Brunch says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 9:21 am
I have a Chinese EV (MG4)…sold both the Hilux and the Corolla hybrid, so own outright…just finished our first year and all up, $500 paid in charging (both home and public) —-> 3.3cents/km.
Still a year away from my first free service, drives like a dream (beautifully balanced, quiet and oodles of power.
I remember an old uncle who wouldn’t come outside to see my new Datto (1977) owing to his wartime experiences, which was understandable. What would he say to the ‘Real Aussies’ and their Toyota 4WD ‘icons’ these days?’
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Sounds great. Dad was on the Burma Railroad so I have some sympathy for your Uncle. What sort of EV do you have if you don’t mind saying.
‘mj says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 9:26 am
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 5:39 am
We should be like Singapore!?! And all live in apartments, except for the wealthiest few? Yeah nah.
————
We are completely different to Singapore land wise, we’re not a city state limited to 700 sq km of land as you should probably realise and acknowledge.
Australia is kind of set up though as a federation of 5 separate city states which places unnecessarily tight competition for housing/land/jobs in the largest cities.
Whitlam was the last PM with a plan to decentralise population, he wanted Albury-Wodonga to become a major inland city – it’s a shame plans like this were never followed through on. And it seems completely beyond the capacity of the visionless governments of current times to even conceive let alone develop.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albury-Wodonga_Development_Corporation‘
=================
Do you think that the Greens plan to destroy a slew of rural and regional industries is going to encourage people out of the cities and into the bush? Seriously?
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 6:45 am
The IMF says Aussie inflation will be 3.6% by the end of 2025 and growth will be 1.2% off the back of massive immigration.
I wonder what those numbers mean politically?
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Peter Hannam has poured some cold water on inflation hawking in GA live blog;
Recall that headline consumer price inflation has been artificially lowered lately by energy and housing rebates.
Now some of those won’t be repeated – eg Queensland’s $1000 per household handout on 1 July – but it remains highly likely that a federal government seeking reelection is going to offer some sort of rebates for next year (and the opposition will probably seek to match or exceed them).
The RBA, of course, can’t anticipate what those rebates will be so they don’t include any. Hey presto, headline CPI rises next year.
The central bank, of course, pays more attention to underlying inflation. On current forecasts, the trimmed mean measure will ease from 3.5% at year’s end to 2.9% by December 2025.
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Use of the word ‘artificially’ by Hannam is a weird choice. CPI is lower because of government policy, nothing artificial about it. He could have said temporarily, and that would be fine, but artificial is incorrect.
Bloody idiot?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/23/perth-man-treated-for-scurvy-as-cost-of-living-crisis-brings-back-disease-of-the-past
Marina Hyde really has a way with words:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/elon-musk-million-dollars-donald-trump-elected
”pied piper, whilst that’s a great Liberal party talking point, it isn’t the case.”
Liberal talking points don’t have to be “the case”. They just have to push the right buttons in their target audience. Any relationship to objective reality, logic or past positions held is immaterial. For example, the Coalition has always ran a high immigration policy.
That being said, I don’t know why Mr Piper repeatedly parrots Liberal talking points here. Obviously not to convert the Labor and Green supporters. Maybe he wants to see if and how the “elites” and “woke” among posters here react. Competitor research maybe.
Interesting article by Gittins in the Herald today. We’ve seen an interesting dynamic play out over the last couple of years. On one hand, the Reserve Bank has been ratcheting up interest rates, and by all accounts the economy is slowing to a standstill. But on the other hand, employment growth remains strong, and the unemployment rate is still close to a record low. So what’s going on? In a word: demographics. Traditionally, a slowing economy would mean increasing unemployment, but with Australia’s population ageing fast, there simply aren’t enough workers to fill all of the jobs we have and need, and there won’t be for the foreseeable future. This is why we’ve tried to import workers to fill the gaps, but this has created infrastructure problems (as there are not enough workers to build the houses for these immigrants to live in), as well as social tensions. In any event, just about every other wealthy-ish country is facing the same pressures, and therefore chasing the same migrants. The rest of this decade stands to be a good time for workers, but it won’t be without its challenges.
The politics of all this is delicate. Clearly there is an anti-immigrant vibe out there in parts of the country (something that the likes of Dutton, and Trump in the US, are eager to exploit), but at the same time, we will need these same immigrants to fill the increasing number of job vacancies. This is particularly the case in labour intensive industries like health, education, hospitality, and infrastructure building. But it’s also the case that our increasingly ageing populations are turning against incumbent governments in response to virulent anti-immigration campaigns from insurgents. No easy answers to all of this of course, but it’s a new reality we need to get used to.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/get-this-into-your-head-we-are-now-short-of-workers-not-jobs-20241022-p5kkak.html