Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

One bad and one good result for federal Labor, plus findings on the monarch and the monarchy.

After ticking in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago, the latest Essential Research poll ticks back with a four point drop to 28% (down a point on two polls ago), while the Coalition recovers the point it lost last time to hit 35%. The Greens are steady on 12%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and undecided component is up one to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has shown a tight tussle for around a year now, has the Coalition up one to 48% and Labor down three to 46%. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which give Peter Dutton his best results to date, his approval up three to 45% and disapproval down three to 39%. Anthony Albanese is up two to 44% and up one on disapproval to 48%.

Further questions are inspired by the visit to Australia of King Charles III, including a finding of 50% approval and 26% disapproval of whatever it is that he does. A question on a republic finds a big drop in unsure since January, with support up three to 45% and opposition up four to 39%. A question on the rarely canvassed issue of federalism (at least, that’s how I would interpret it – the question didn’t actually mention the states) finds 61% considering the federal government has about the right amount of power, with 13% saying it should have more and 26% less. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1140.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll is quite a bit better for Labor, finding their primary vote up two to 32%, the Coalition down one to 36.5%, the Greens down half to 13.5% and One Nation down half to 5.5%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 52-48, after a tied result last time, while the previous election preferences measure has it at 53-47, out from 51-49. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,145 thoughts on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. I see that it is Monday morning so it must be time to get stuck into Albanese.

    Who is Albanese? He is the can-do prime minister who has achieved more in two and a half years than the Coalition achieved in the last ten years and who has achieved more in two and half years than the Greens have achieved in 35 years.

    Albanese will go down as the first prime minister to deliver substantive action on climate change. The first one. Ever. The results are starting to gain momentum with huge gains in renewables.

    Albanese will be remembered as the prime minister who gave priority to the lowest paid workers in feminized industries with some getting a 27% pay increase.

    He will be remembered as the Prime Minister who reformed the AAT.

    He will be remembered as the Prime Minister who established the NACC.

    He will be remembered for his HR reform, undoing many of the rules and regulations that favoured Dutton’s bosses.

    He will be remembered as the national leader who worked with state and territory leaders to put together a $4.7 billion national DV package.

    He will be remembered as the national leader who worked with the NT leader to put together a $4 billion package for Australia’s most disadvantaged people – Indigenous people living in remote communities.

    He will be remembered as the leader who made substantial contributions to Ukraine.

    He will be remembered as the leader of a government that has supported women to close the gender pay gap and to smash the glass ceilings in numerous domains.

    He will be remembered as the prime minister who put $60 billion into infrastructure development.

    He will be remembered for stabilizing the Budget after the Morrision amok years.

    He will be remembered for reforming and further funding the NDIS, rescuing it from ten years of Coalition white-anting.

    He will be remembered for the plethora of COL reforms including in energy and medicine costs.

    He will be remembered for the dozens of urgent care clinics.

    He will be remembered for fixing ten years of client service criminal activity, neglect and bastardization by the Coalition.

    He will be remembered for running an honest government.

    And that is just in his first term.

    If Dutton and Bandt would just stop wrecking and blocking there are around six major pieces of Government action that will flow.

  2. Albanese, despite the strenuous activities of Dutton, Bandt and their hacks to inflame tensions, has ensured that cooler heads have prevailed on the domestic scene.

  3. Absolutely michael, like many concerned Australians I watched the Broken Hill energy crisis documentary Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome and I can assure you that they are not duking it out over some renewables crap down there.

  4. Don’t forget he appointed Nikki Savva to the board of Old Parly House.

    You used to love citing that one – but have gone a little off it.

  5. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 12:47 pm
    Albo worked in the Commonwealth Bank.
    _____________________
    Risky.
    To paraphrase Paul Keating.
    “Never get between Albo and a bucket of money”

  6. ‘Bizzcan says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 7:52 am

    meher babasays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 5:37 am

    “I’m really not sure what Albo is.”

    ______________________

    It is simple, Albo is someone who has never had a real job and has spent the the vast majority of his life pampered in parliament. He is detached from the lived experience of most Australians, and his subordinates run rings around him in terms of articulating policy and vision.

    He only survives because those with the blue ties opposite are living parodies of corporate shills, led by a low resolution Trump wannabe. While those with the Green berets would fail even a Marxist economics course with their policy incoherence.

    Hence why, where they are viable, Teals are the big winners.’
    ===================================
    Just ignore all his many achievements, blather on and sink the slipper! Easy as that.

  7. Dutton will be remembered as the real estate mogul who killed the Voice, wants to kill climate action, who is au pair friendly, and who is too frightened to eat dinner because of black gangs.

  8. michaelsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 1:38 pm
    I have been just reading about the debacle in Broken Hill. If you 100% rely on this renewable crap in an isolated remote town good luck. I would have backup diesel generators (don’t rely on transmission lines as close) always available in any town far from anything as I don’t want to eat biscuits for weeks.
    ___________________________________________
    Eh? They have battery, solar and wind online and ready to provide power, the problem is with the distribution network and bureaucracy, no issue with the renewables. Compare to the problems with their FF generators.
    The people that have rooftop solar, home batteries or VTL I’m sure are sitting pretty.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/broken-hill-has-a-wind-farm-a-solar-farm-and-a-big-battery-so-why-are-the-lights-out/

  9. Regarding Broken Hill power shortages, I trust people do realise that it already had a large scale backup diesel generator and a large scale battery?

    The problems have occurred because of a combination of a grid failure (transmission grid, not generation) and the backup diesel not working because some bright sparks failed to maintain it.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/broken-hill-has-a-wind-farm-a-solar-farm-and-a-big-battery-so-why-are-the-lights-out/

    So Broken Hill is obviously a screw up. Nobody is saying what the cause it, but as with the SA power blackout, it is not the renewables that have caused it.

  10. Why didn’t they maintain back up gen. Because they thought their setup with renewables as perfect and the dirty diesel wouldn’t be required. Guess every remote town with the same renewable power will be buying or testing their diesel generators. And my point was renewables in an isolated town need the transmission lines standing up, diesel gens plug in the cord.

  11. ‘michael says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 1:38 pm

    I have been just reading about the debacle in Broken Hill. If you 100% rely on this renewable crap in an isolated remote town good luck. I would have backup diesel generators (don’t rely on transmission lines as close) always available in any town far from anything as I don’t want to eat biscuits for weeks.’
    ======================
    You are lying to make a political point.

  12. michael @ #950 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 1:38 pm

    I have been just reading about the debacle in Broken Hill. If you 100% rely on this renewable crap in an isolated remote town good luck. I would have backup diesel generators (don’t rely on transmission lines as close) always available in any town far from anything as I don’t want to eat biscuits for weeks.

    Broken Hill has a wind farm, a solar farm and a big battery. But guess what … the fossil fueled energy companies would not let them supply power to the town.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/broken-hill-has-a-wind-farm-a-solar-farm-and-a-big-battery-so-why-are-the-lights-out/

    Stick that in your pipe and emit it.

  13. ‘michael says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 2:00 pm

    Why didn’t they maintain back up gen. Because they thought their setup with renewables as perfect and the dirty diesel wouldn’t be required. Guess every remote town with the same renewable power will be buying or testing their diesel generators. And my point was renewables in an isolated town need the transmission lines standing up, diesel gens plug in the cord.’
    ===================
    Caught out on the lying you make up some more lies to make a political point.

  14. Taylormade @ #957 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 1:46 pm

    Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 12:47 pm
    Albo worked in the Commonwealth Bank.
    _____________________
    Risky.
    To paraphrase Paul Keating.
    “Never get between Albo and a bucket of money”

    Perhaps that can now be updated to “Never get between Albo and a First Class upgrade”.

  15. Transgrid is the operator of the transmission network, which owns the towers that were destroyed by the storms and also has responsibility for the diesel generators that are supposed to provide back-up power in such an event.

  16. Aston says Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seems particularly fond of freebies and the luxurious surrounds of the Chairman’s Lounge.

    “For all his talk of growing up in public housing, his appetite for sponsored VIP hospitality and travel is insatiable,” he says, adding that it was Albo who petitioned Alan Joyce to have the privileges of the Chairman’s Lounge extended to his then 22-year-old son, Nathan.

    Albanese complained, bitterly, when the story broke in Aston’s newspaper column. “This is a game played by people when their back is against the wall,” says Aston. “Albanese said: ‘You can’t attack my son. You’re attacking my son. He’s not a public figure.’

    “No one was ever attacking his son. What Albo did, through his grasping behaviour, was throw his son into the middle of the traffic. No one else did that. I didn’t do that. The Prime Minister did that because he can’t help himself.

    “He spoke to Alan Joyce and said, ‘Can you please give my son a member of the Chairman’s Lounge?’ And no other Prime Minister has ever dreamed of asking that question. I mean, it is pretty shocking.

  17. Apparently he contacted that malignant dwarf, Alan Joyce directly, you know, the same union busting neo liberal who was treating workers with contempt. So,well done Albo, the champion of the working class and enemy of all Tories! Sigh.

  18. The amount of money spent on renewables at Broken Hill and its a total mess. There must be a better way than this, no wonder power bills are going through the roof if every regional town needs all this crap rather than a simple baseload setup.

  19. ‘michael says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 2:14 pm

    The amount of money spent on renewables at Broken Hill and its a total mess. There must be a better way than this, no wonder power bills are going through the roof if every regional town needs all this crap rather than a simple baseload setup.’
    —————–
    Lies upon lies upon lies.

  20. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    Albanese is the first prime minister in a quarter of a century to keep Australia out of a war.
    _____________________
    Is he also the first prime minister who demanded Qantas give his son access to their Chairman’s Lounge ?

  21. As I have said before, China and India are going to keep pumping it to 2050, what we do does not matter but if a certain side of politics wants to lower our standard of living to feel good about themselves, we all need to understand that.

  22. michael @ #978 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 2:14 pm

    The amount of money spent on renewables at Broken Hill and its a total mess. There must be a better way than this, no wonder power bills are going through the roof if every regional town needs all this crap rather than a simple baseload setup.

    The solution is simple. Allow the assets that are already in place to power the town when the grid is down. At present, they are required by their licenses to sit there idle.

    In fact, we should put many more such assets in place. There is no reason why any remote community needs to be on the grid at all these days, except perhaps as a back up or to export their excess power. But really they should have a battery for that.

  23. A lot of the posts today about the upgrades/Chairman’s lounge have been either “get Albo” or “they all do it”. The real issue is surely the one raised by Aston in his book. This is about how Qantas operates and how all players whatever side of politics and in the ranks of the most senior public servants are being “seduced”.

    To either focus on Albanese (seemingly because he was not born in the purple and should not have the entitlements of those who were) or to dismiss the issue as “they all do it” is wrong. The focus needs to be on the personal benefits that can accrue to decision makers on matters as straightforward as choosing which airline to fly around Australia on.

  24. Bore, wrote “The Albanese slag merchants are in fine fettle this afternoon… feeding off each others’ vomit. ”

    No, we just aren’t into your cult of personality mindset. You just fail to see that a), He is inept in the role of PM and b), he is on the make. You just keep on with your worhip of Big Brother mate, seeing that you are a bit unsettled, maybe an extra 10 minutes of Hate may also restore you.

  25. Meanwhile the Greens are bleating on about Labor not winning because the Greens have been denied the opportunity to live out their parasitical tendencies.

  26. Opposition transport spokesperson Bridget McKenzie has said former Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce needs to be called before the Senate to determine whether Anthony Albanese’s flight upgrades have acted as a “quid pro quo” between the two.

    “We wanted to know back then what was the quid pro quo for the Prime Minister’s intervention blocking the Qatar Airways additional flights, that would have seen international airfares drop for Australian travellers. We thought it was the Yes campaign’s support, as you recall, but it turns out it may be a lot more than that.

    “We really need to understand the influence that the Prime Minister’s personal and financial gain through these upgrades for he and his family has had on his intervention in protecting Qantas from competition.”

    She said it was “unconscionable that someone would actually be ringing begging for an upgrade”, saying she had never received or requested one herself.

    “It wasn’t just the Qatar Airways decision, they ruled aviation out of Jim Chalmers’s competition review. They halted the ACCC monitoring for cancellation and delays that was making Qantas look really bad,” she said.

    “What I would like to see is a full log of the upgrades that both he received and also his family received.

  27. michael,

    The organisation responsible for the backup generator and transmission grid is very separate to the owners and operators of renewables in and around Broken Hill.

  28. Lars Von Trier @ #991 Monday, October 28th, 2024 – 2:33 pm

    Opposition transport spokesperson Bridget McKenzie has said former Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce needs to be called before the Senate to determine whether Anthony Albanese’s flight upgrades have acted as a “quid pro quo” between the two.

    “We wanted to know back then what was the quid pro quo for the Prime Minister’s intervention blocking the Qatar Airways additional flights, that would have seen international airfares drop for Australian travellers. We thought it was the Yes campaign’s support, as you recall, but it turns out it may be a lot more than that.

    “We really need to understand the influence that the Prime Minister’s personal and financial gain through these upgrades for he and his family has had on his intervention in protecting Qantas from competition.”

    She said it was “unconscionable that someone would actually be ringing begging for an upgrade”, saying she had never received or requested one herself.

    “It wasn’t just the Qatar Airways decision, they ruled aviation out of Jim Chalmers’s competition review. They halted the ACCC monitoring for cancellation and delays that was making Qantas look really bad,” she said.

    “What I would like to see is a full log of the upgrades that both he received and also his family received.

    I seem to recall the ATM governments blocking Qatar access too. Perhaps that inquiry should be extended to largesse for members of the coalition who had and have access to Qantas trough as well.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-06/transport-minister-accuses-coalition-of-qatar-airways-hypocrisy/102819556

    Frankly I’m sick of all out politicians. They’re almost all on the grift one way or another.
    No wonder Albanese claimed he’d never seen any evidence of corruption before he was backed into a corner on the Turn a Blind Eye NACCered.

  29. ‘clem attlee says:
    Monday, October 28, 2024 at 2:23 pm

    Bore, wrote “The Albanese slag merchants are in fine fettle this afternoon… feeding off each others’ vomit. ”

    ….’
    =================
    Meh. You spew hate and you ignore Albanese’s major achievements.

  30. Some time soon some one in Queensland will give a ten year old boy or girl a life sentence.

    Supported by Dutton, tough cop on the beat.

    That is the promise. Repeated time and time again.

  31. Remember when we were told that by paying our politicians better we’d attract better people into politics.
    Still waiting for the better politicians to run and be elected.

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