There’s been a fair bit of chatter around lately about momentum in favour of Donald Trump, but by any reasonable metric the situation remains as it’s been since the dust settled a few weeks after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Namely, poll aggregates have Kamala Harris up by three points nationally, which translates into an effective dead heat from election forecasts. A narrowing in Nate Silver’s probability forecast from around 56-44 to 50-50 has no doubt been influential, but the fundamental calculus is unchanged: the polls will very likely prove to have been out in one direction or another, and whoever they are underselling will take home the prize. For what it’s worth, The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models have ticked back a little to Harris over the past few days after narrowing to almost dead level a week ago, respectively putting her at 54% and 56%.
Considerably more depth on all this is available from Adrian Beaumont’s latest for The Conversation. The monthly Resolve Strategic polls for Nine Newspapers have been asking their Australian respondents who they would vote for if they could or would, consistently finding the fifty-first state to be deep blue: the latest has Kamala Harris at 52%, up two on last month, with Donald Trump down four to 21%.
Yes, it probably was. But there’s plenty of nastiness being directed at him too. Or doesn’t that count? Let’s not forget that nastiness begets nastiness.
a r
You tell Marist to hurry the f up….
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/
Bystander @ #1052 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 5:32 pm
Dude, he and his nastiness outweighs the rest of us put together! It’s his schtick. Trying constantly to own the libs by being nasty and condescending.
Have you ever asked him to stop it? Not that I can remember. Don’t you understand that people like him count on soft-hearted people like you to defend people like him? The Right love it when you come along and demand higher standards from people on the Left because we’re supposed to be the well-behaved good guys. People like him just exploit that paradigm to the hilt.
Sprocket_ @ #1049 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 5:09 pm
It’s only one poll but Georgia looks like it’s improving. The rally in Georgia says that the Dems are picking that up and they’re bringing the big guns to the state.
Ignoring your unsubstantiated implication that deliberate war crimes have been committed – a pretty simple fix for all of that exists:
1. Release all the hostages, including the dead bodies.
2. Stop attacking Israel in all ways. Israel has no motivation to treat the Palestinians as a peaceful future neighbour while Palestinians and Hezbollah continue to attack Israel and don’t accept Israel’s right to exist, let alone live in peace.
FUBAR @ #1038 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 3:15 pm
Oh, you really are a bullshit artist who just parrots the RW disinformation for effect. I was in Portland for 2 weeks less than 6 months ago and there are zero signs of any permanent damage, the people are going about their lives happily, there is no ongoing lawlessness and Antifa is a dead letter.
Development Assessment tests?
one of the editors of the LA times resigned because their asshole south-african born billionaire owner (and no this is not MUSK) refused to let them print an endorsement for MVP.
“LA Times Editorial Page Editor Resigns After Paper Skips Presidential Endorsement | Exclusive”
Los Angeles Times editorial page editor Mariel Garza resigned from the paper on Wednesday following the decision by owner Patrick Soon-Shiong not to endorse a political candidate for president.
https://www.thewrap.com/la-times-editorial-director-mariel-garza-resigns-presidential-endorsement/
Confessions @ #1058 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 5:53 pm
Drug and Alcohol. It’s just the resident RW Nasty Guy trying to own the libs. 🙄
No, I don’t. I’m quite capable of looking after myself.
C@t:
He needs to move to the open thread.
Meanwhile, after Harris and Cheney appeared in the county the other night…
You are the bullshit artist.
“The cleaning and repair bill for federal buildings in Portland damaged during protests in the city last summer exceeded $2 million, Oregon’s attorney has revealed.”
https://www.newsweek.com/portland-protesters-damage-cost-federal-buildings-1566821
… and that’s USD so AUD $3 million.
And they murdered one person that I can recall.
But the fact that it’s all cleaned up now makes it ok. They’ve cleaned up Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge, too.
… demonstrating that you don’t have anything to do with any work involving workplace safety.
The bullshit part is using “violence” to mean “violence against property”. I doubt fascists would have an entire movement dedicated to opposing them if all they did was violence against property.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 4:37 pm
If you read Omar comin!’s posts and don’t think that there’s something a bit strange going on then I question your professional qualifications and judgement, once again.
No police were injured, no one was murdered. Apart from a few:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/americans-killed-protests-political-unrest-acled
https://www.newsweek.com/antifa-far-left-violence-extremism-deadly-year-opnion-1477065
What I found intriguing on the day Trump was at McDonalds was how happy Donald McDonald looked by serving fries to customers. He certainly didn’t look like someone who was behind in the election.
Today, I find that Trump’s former chief of staff, who hates Trump, claims that Trump likes Adolf Hitler. Why wait until this close to polling day to make such allegations?
It all smacks of desperation to me!
Maybe the Democrats feel they are not ahead enough in the key swing states to win.
C@t
I don’t see nastiness as a useful way to debate issues, whoever it is coming from. But I suspect I am in the minority.
FUBAR @ #1066 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 6:13 pm
Oh fcs get off the grass! You unimaginative military grunts have absolutely zero conception of a creative mind. If Omar Comin’ suggests anyone to me it’s Hunter S.Thompson, Geoff Lemon or John Birmingham. Writers who have a colourful way of expressing themselves. And expressing themselves clearly, even if you don’t comprehend.
And enough with ‘questioning my professional qualifications and judgement’. That’s just another in a long line of baseless nasty assertions by you about people who you know next to nothing about. Your qualification is that you are a stock standard nasty Right Winger, FUBAR, and you excel at that.
Bystander @ #1069 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 6:23 pm
My point was, you don’t seem to question the progenitor of it.
FUBAR @ #1063 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 6:05 pm
My god, that’s what you’ve got your knickers in a twist about!?! Remind me what it cost to repair the Capitol after Trump’s stormtroopers destroyed much of it on January 6, 2021?
Oh wait, don’t bother, I’m over your pathetic attempts to distract us by referring to irrelevant issues.
Confessions @ #1062 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 6:00 pm
He’s addicted to trying to own the libs so he’s not likely to go anywhere soon. Sad.
If he did look happy (and the pics I’ve seen suggest otherwise), he was relieved he was serving a whipped up fan base, not actual real customers.
The shop was closed the day Trump and his entourage went there for a photo op, populated with a couple staff and a rent a crowd of fans.
Talk about desperate!
This is the lengths the Forces of Darkness are going to:
American creating deepfakes targeting Harris works with Russian intel, documents show
Russian documents reviewed by The Post expose the workings of a Moscow network that has become a potent source of fake news targeting American voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/23/dougan-russian-disinformation-harris/
Confessions @ #1074 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 6:38 pm
I read Centre’s post and I thought, my goodness he has a fertile imagination! 😆
C@t:
The 6 January insurrection has so far cost USD $2.8m in Capitol cleanup, and that doesn’t factor in the lives lost, those who were injured, or the legal costs to the government of prosecuting the offenders.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/36-months-jan-6-attack-capitol-0#:~:text=The%20government%20continues%20to%20investigate,at%20the%20Capitol%20totaled%20%242%2C881%2C360.20.
I think many records are going to fall in this election. I think there will be a;
– record voter turnout,
– record vote for the losing candidate,
– record betting turnover worldwide,
– record vote to the winner.
Which Party will get their supporters to want to vote the most in the key swing states?
Confessions @ #1077 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 6:42 pm
And, as usual, Trump doesn’t have to pay a nickel in costs.
Fess
Well, not according to the video footage I saw on mainstream news media. At this point of the election cycle, I’ve seen a lot let’s say, unhappier chappy’s, that have gone on to defeat 😉
Confessions says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 6:38 pm
???…. because no politicians ever do staged photo ops?
My wife, 2 yo daughter and baby son in pram were used in a photo shoot for then ALP Candidate Peter Tinley when he made his first run for the seat of Stirling. It was at the Osborne Park Hospital and the focus was on it being a maternity hospital. The double irony of it is my wife had both our kids at St John of Gods Subiaco and she votes Liberal, but we did it as a favour for her Dad, who was Peter’s campaign manager. Peter is a nice guy and I respect him a lot, so was happy that my wife agreed.
Only thirteen days ’til US election day.
Watch the demeanour for every footage you see of Kamala and Donald. Watch the attacks from either party. The worse the attacks, the more the desperation.
Trump likes Hitler so says one of his enemies, yep that’ll change votes 😀
Fubar
You and I are a million miles apart and I hope it stays that way.
I hardly have my knickers in a knot – just responding to claims being made.
That is just a small portion of the estimated USD $2 billion (AUD $3 billion) worth of damage done by the ANTIFA BLM riots in the US alone. You can Google the evidence of that figure yourself.
C@tmomma says Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 5:55 pm
I suspect Confessions might have been taking the piss there. For example:
Disability inclusion and Accessibility tests?
Delivery and Acceptance tests?
Dry and Abandoned tests?
Detection and Alarm tests?
Design and Analysis tests?
Data and Analytics tests?
Depreciation and Amortisation tests?
Decommissioning and Abandonment tests?
Deals and Allowances tests?
Then you can also make things up:
Driving and Archery tests?
Dancing and Athletics tests?
Deplorables and Arseholes tests?
Douche and Anal tests?
Depraved and Angelic tests?
There’s often good fun to be had with acronyms (for some very strange definitions of fun of course).
Centre:
This is definitely Trump’s election to lose and yet he isn’t streets ahead in the polls. He’s a polarising, universally-known public figure with huge baggage and an even bigger character flaw.
At the end of the day the race is close, minds are obviously made up but there is opportunity on both sides to turn out a sliver of voters for them. Or alternatively the polls are junk and it’ll be a red or blue wave.
Ultimately nobody knows.
Centre
Trump wanted his Generals to be more like German Generals i. e. to be loyal to him rather than their country. He was pressed on what era of German Generals he was looking at and eventually settled on the Third Reich. He had no answer when told some from within the High Command attempted to assassinate Hitler. He also had no clue who Rommel was ffs. This kind of bullshit from him should give his supporters pause, as should his proven fraud, sexual assault and part in fomenting an insurrection but I suspect that his cultists, like him, have little knowledge or interest in history. Perhaps if Trump was videod slapping a live puppy in a burger bun and eating it you might have reservations about his suitability but I doubt it.
Real Clear Politics, now has her leading by only 0.2%.
Of course this is ignored on this thread as being “anti Kamala propaganda”.
On Saturday night she was still leading by 1.7%.
Her vote is “falling off a cliff”, but by all means pretend it is, shall we say, “fake news”.
I’d say by Sunday evening Trump will take the lead on the RCP average. Perhaps earlier.
RCP link – for anyone “outside the bubble”.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Bellwether says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7:07 pm
You don’t want the hostages returned and peace with Israel?
Yep. We are a million miles apart.
Fess
Yes, Trump has many flaws. I don’t even think he’s fit to be president. What does it say about the Democrats that Trump has a real possibility of winning?
As for his flaws, many in the US don’t seem to care…
I still think George W Bush was worse than Trump 😉
Even if we ignore the maxim that Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them, I ask WTF?
He’s a convicted felon, a proven sexual assaulter, a buffoon, a fraud, a sexist – I’m sure you’ve got plenty more to add to the list – yet, you say it’s his to lose?
WTF?!
How cannot the Democrats put up a candidate that runs rings around him?
He should be pants’d.
The Republicans should be shaking their heads and saying “what have we done”.
And Harris, who should be smashing it out of the park but is a useless as tits on a bull, took Tuesday off from campaigning. WTF?
FUBAR
You’re a genocide fan? That feel nice?
1. America is a deeply divided and polarised nation
2. Trump and Trumpism has taken over a mainstream political party and made it theirs
3. Your average voter is only consumed with colour and movement
4. The electoral college is unconstitutional
FUBAR says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 2:47 pm
Bellwether says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 11:38 am
That depends on how sensitive you assume the climate is to CO2 emissions
This is gaslighting.
We know exactly what the physics is. CO2 in the atmosphere reacts with infrared light, converting it to heat which remains in the atmosphere. If the CO2 were not in the atmosphere the light would be radiated into space (reflected by the surfaces of the planet) and the temperature on the surface would average about -30 deg. C.
So the thermal conditions in the atmosphere and on the earth’s surface are certainly affected by CO2. The physics enables predictions to be made about the rates of heat retention in the atmosphere.
The predictions can be and certainly are subject to verification.
Anyone who says that thermal values do not influence/determine the climate is playing with themselves in public. FUBAR is being his usual disingenuous, dissembling, deceitful, gaslighting professionally lying self.
Centre,
This is exactly the point I raised last weekend.
They are still voting for him. ie: “They” hate the Dems with a passion.
There is nothing the Dems can do to relate to this community.
We’ve seen posters on this site, calling them all reactionaries, RWNJ’s, fascists, fuckwits, etc.
That feels good, especially when you press enter on the keyboard, but it doesn’t answer the question of why are these people voting for Trump. His supposed flaws – they don’t give a fuck.
They hate the Dems sooooo much, they couldn’t care less about his supposed flaws.
Remember “grab em by the pussy”. No one who counted, gave a fuck. So what can they fling at him now?
They want him. They don’t want her.
Bellwether says:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7:33 pm
Israel is not carrying out a genocide.
Fess
If Trump wins, and I think he will (independent view), the Democrats who have been in administration for 12 of the past 16 years, will seriously need to have a good long hard look at themselves 😉
Paul A
Haven’t you heard, Real Clear Politics has just been bought by the rich Trump supporters behind Polymarket, and they want to manipulate the polls, like the betting, to show Trump is winning 😀
Paul A
What guys in private have never said grab them by the pussy lol
And what about Stormy Daniels, she’s a prostitute, she gets paid. She welched on a deal LOL 😀
Paula
Polling has indicated a 6 point movement away from Trump since 2016 amongst white non-college voters in rustbelt states. Please explain.
Centrebet
Add misogyny to your ever-growing list of negative character traits. You really are an unpleasant piece of work.
😀 😀
Oh for eff’s sake’s Bellwether – chill, you goose…