US presidential election minus three weeks

“If you squint at the polling averages, things are getting closer”, notes Nate Silver. But you probably shouldn’t.

There’s been a fair bit of chatter around lately about momentum in favour of Donald Trump, but by any reasonable metric the situation remains as it’s been since the dust settled a few weeks after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Namely, poll aggregates have Kamala Harris up by three points nationally, which translates into an effective dead heat from election forecasts. A narrowing in Nate Silver’s probability forecast from around 56-44 to 50-50 has no doubt been influential, but the fundamental calculus is unchanged: the polls will very likely prove to have been out in one direction or another, and whoever they are underselling will take home the prize. For what it’s worth, The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models have ticked back a little to Harris over the past few days after narrowing to almost dead level a week ago, respectively putting her at 54% and 56%.

Considerably more depth on all this is available from Adrian Beaumont’s latest for The Conversation. The monthly Resolve Strategic polls for Nine Newspapers have been asking their Australian respondents who they would vote for if they could or would, consistently finding the fifty-first state to be deep blue: the latest has Kamala Harris at 52%, up two on last month, with Donald Trump down four to 21%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,152 thoughts on “US presidential election minus three weeks”

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  3. out of sorts @ #1000 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 9:43 am

    Antifa by definition are militarist. They intend violence to people and those who seek to keep the peace. They are a group who aim to cause and promote civil unrest, therefore I have a problem with antifa on principle.
    So am I an evil person?

    More generalized bitching with no specific examples. Also apparent lies about fascists seeking “to keep the peace”. They don’t do that.

    Though I never said the anti-antifa set is “evil”. Misinformed. Disingenuous. Priorities in the wrong order. Unaware of what “antifa” means. Ignorant about what a fascist is, or what fascists did the last time the world tolerated their rule. Some mix of those.

  4. C@t
    My point is, both the 3 percenters and antifa are anti government and are responsible for what could be considered domestic terror, or hate group. Specific example, Andy Ngo. Therefore, who is anti-constitutional republic or monarchy should not be tolerated, whether they are fascists or antifa.

  5. a r
    Acting like antifa just target fascists is rice custard. The violence point I made was in regard of them attacking police officers.

  6. ”
    out of sortssays:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 10:40 am
    Dictator does not mean fascist.
    ”

    Generals, who worked with him, called Trump fascist.
    You are like MAGA Mike, Virginia Republican Governor Youngkin and New Hampshire Republican governor Sununu, who were defending the indefensible when they said that Trump did not mean what he said about “Enemy within” and who they are.

  7. Some within Trump world are also saying that the story that is yet to break publicly is not a rumour.

    They are also saying that Trump is actually worried about it being exposed. After all he has said and done to date, and he is worried now. Weird.

  11. Lomborg is mendacious. He misconstrues the situation. He is deceptive. A fraud. A gamer. He’s useful to the fossil fuel producers because he dissembles so readily.

    It’s well worth recalling that since at least the 1960s the fossil fuels profiteers have known that their products, when used as intended, cause climate change. That is, they have quite knowingly invested in changing the atmosphere while being informed of what the consequences would be. All along, they have financed denial. They still do. They lie for profit. This is a part of their business planning. Lomborg is a figure in their disinformation plan. FUBAR is likewise an instrument of disinformation, of gaslighting.

  13. Agreed Sprocket on event at The Ellipse. Timing is ideal.. right in the home straight. By then the Hitler stuff will have really sunk in (hopefully) and if the Harris people manage the event well, it could be very potent indeed. Maybe George W. might choose his moment to actually say something as well, though it’s not entirely clear to me how much difference he’d make.

  14. Fubar
    I’d like to know how we can continue the endless extraction of fossil fuels from underground and undersea without changing the climate. Can you please explain?

  16. Bellwether
    Andy Ngo wrote a book on how Antifa is an organised sect aimed at overthrowing government, and popularised it through various channels such as JRE. Since then he has received death threats and attempts on his life for practicing the free speech they apparently fight for.

  17. If my Java Runtime Environments contained fascist propaganda I would have some serious questions for Larry Ellison (though not really that surprising)

  18. I’m anti fascist. I’m anti Reactionary. I’m against theocratic power. I’m anti racist and anti sexist.

    The objects of my opposition trade in hatred, violence, lies and despair. Who would not oppose them?

  20. Trump said that “Hitler had done some good things”.

    Does this confuse someone like BTsays, FUBAR, out of sorts, PP , Bad thinker, who believed and still believe throughout their lives that Hitler and his Generals were evil people, who are responsible for death of millions of people. And that belief is the bedrock of Western civilization after WW2, isn’t it?

  22. Harris at a Town hall conducted by NN in Delaware County, PA, said: General Kelly sent 911 call to American people.

    Brilliant way to put about what General Kelly said about Trump, isn’t it?

  23. Ex model claims Trump groped her in ‘twisted game’ with Epstein
    A former top model has made explosive claims against Donald Trump , accusing the presidential nominee of “groping her” in a twisted game with Jeffrey Epstein.
    Courier mail now.
    So whats new?

    Imagine if Harris praised Hitler and called veterans ‘losers’
    Donald Trump is brushing off stunning allegations that would surely end Kamala Harris’s campaign if they were levelled against her. It begs the question: can anything stop him?

  24. Ven, Hitler did some good things, such as get Germany out of an economic crisis and encourage rapid GDP growth to raise their competitiveness in Europe. That being said, the bad clearly outshadows all of that because he was clearly evil.
    Evil people can occasionally do some good things.

  26. For the record, out of the 3 demagogues (Hitler, Stalin and Mao) of 20th century, West thinks that Hitler was the most evil person because he caused most harm to human beings (especially in West), followed by Stalin and Mao ( both caused harm overwhelmingly to their own people).
    The thing is USA President Richard Nixon thought that it is ok to have proper diplomatic relations with Mao Communist China, when American leaders and people hated communism and communist country. Hating Communism is a sacred covenant till Berlin wall came down.
    The reason for Vietnam war is to defeat Communist or to keep them at bay. That USA failed miserably in that mission is another story.

    Now since Trump says Putin and Russia are good, half the American people agree with Trump on that.

    Now, people like ‘out of sorts’ believe that Hitler did some good things. Fascinating, isn’t it, how reason and critical thinking goes out of the window when you hate the other group because your leader asked you to do so?
    Now people in US, UK and Australia are pointing finger at each other and hating other in their own country because their RW leaders asked them to do so.

  28. Ven says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 1:35 pm
    Trump said that “Hitler had done some good things”.

    Does this confuse someone like …, FUBAR,

    WTF?

    You appear to be the one confused. I certainly am not.

  29. Ven, Hitler did some good things, such as get Germany out of an economic crisis and encourage rapid GDP growth to raise their competitiveness in Europe. That being said, the bad clearly outshadows all of that because he was clearly evil.
    Evil people can occasionally do some good things.

    Okay, but if someone wants to put “Hitler” and “did some good things” together in the same sentence, the onus is on them to make it immediately and explicitly clear what “things” they’re referring to. Because everyone knows what things Hitler is famous for doing, and it’s not their job to infer the speaker’s extreme nuance for them.

    If Trump made such a statement and didn’t immediately qualify it, at best he’s completely inept and at worst he’s a Nazi sympathizer. Nobody gets to tack ex post facto nuance onto his words as if that excuses him.

  31. out of sorts says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 1:58 pm

    Ven, Hitler did some good things, such as get Germany out of an economic crisis and encourage rapid GDP growth to raise their competitiveness in Europe. That being said, the bad clearly outshadows all of that because he was clearly evil.
    Evil people can occasionally do some good things.
    __________________

    If you take an ends justify the means approach that is correct. However, when use use slave labor, confiscate assets of a whole class of citizens, send any opposition into labor camps, give massive state handouts to big business e.g. Beyer, I.G Fabern, Krupp, annex other countries and spend all the Reichmarks on weapns, tanks and guns and totally ignore international treaties.

  32. Bellwether says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 11:38 am

    That depends on how sensitive you assume the climate is to CO2 emissions and which of the cost-benefit of slashing emissions versus adaptation are better for us in the long run.

    I don’t think the climate is as sensitive to CO2 emissions as is being claimed and the benefit of adaptation far exceeds the massive negative costs of cutting emissions.

  34. Fubar
    I don’t assume anything, as a rational human I leave assumptions to the overwhelming body of climate science. A little like I might prefer aggregated political polling over a single poll. It sounds like you think, for no doubt some unbelievably bizarre reason (like maybe you think you’re an ostrich?), you know better? I doubt it.

  35. Bellwether says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 10:30 am
    Fubar
    Maher is a disgusting smug prick. If you seriously believe he’s a lefty your mental state comes into question.

    Maher is a Lefty. If you consider him not to be you’re either a Trot or a Stalinist.

  36. Musk PAC is dropping targeted videos to both Jews and Arabs. These are fake supposedly Democrat videos, those targeted at Jews are portraying Harris/Walz as anti-semites trying to undermine Israeli efforts to ‘defend’ themselves while those targeted at Arabs portray Harris/Walz as ultra-zionists working through Doug Emhoff (well of course) to create an Israeli state free of Palestinians.

  38. a r says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 10:35 am
    meher baba @ #934 Thursday, October 24th, 2024 – 4:50 am

    Antifa are activists who are more than willing to use violence against people whom they see as their political enemies, or against the police and other people who try to stop them.
    Specific examples?

    Portland. Washington State.

    And the rest of the +$2 billion in property damage, deaths and multiple injuries in the BLM riots in the US alone.

    ANTIFA are domestic terrorists. Multiple members are in jail for their crimes.

  39. Kirky says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7:53 am
    I expect Harris to win and it will be interesting to see how some of those high up in the USA who blindingly supported Trump react.

    I saw yesterday a panel where a conservative commentator compared Jews students being blocked out of University by pro-Palestinian students to what Hitler did. The projection is unbelievable.

    They weren’t just “blocked out of University” which they are paying a lot of money for (but that’s a separate matter). They were verbally abused, had personal items and religious items including clothing pulled off, chased and assaulted – things the Nazis also did to Jews.

    Potemkin villages/Theresienstadt Ghettos were set up of compliant Jews to make out they weren’t racists – straight out of the Nazi playbook.

  41. Fubar
    Meanwhile American aid doctors tell of the trauma of holding the brains of young Palestinian children shot in the head by IDF snipers. (BTW you understand that there are Jewish students protesting alongside others against the actions of the IDF).

  42. C@tmomma, Victoria and others
    Women in various swing and other southern states were emotional/crying after they voted. I understand people can make up crap while making videos. (Watch the video. It was produced for tictok). I don’t believe it will be blue tsunami as the author of the article is hoping. Don’t take much notice is written but watch the video because it is uploaded by Meidas Touch.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/23/2278973/-Stories-from-actual-voters-and-their-experiences-Blue-tsunami-in-progress?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

  43. I think FUBAR has an interesting point. When ANTIFA destroyed the twin towers on September 11th and stormed the capitol on January 6th nobody was arguing that they weren’t terrorists. At least I think that’s the point.

  44. Omar Comin’ says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 3:33 pm

    I’ll have whatever you’re on over the weekend. How do you go with D&A tests?

  49. After participating in town halls on Monday and Wednesday, Kamala Harris will head back to campaigning with large rallies the next few days. She is slated to be joined by former president Barack Obama in Georgia on Thursday and former first lady Michelle Obama in Michigan on Saturday. The Democratic presidential nominee is also scheduled to hold a large rally centered on abortion rights in Houston on Friday.

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