There’s been a fair bit of chatter around lately about momentum in favour of Donald Trump, but by any reasonable metric the situation remains as it’s been since the dust settled a few weeks after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Namely, poll aggregates have Kamala Harris up by three points nationally, which translates into an effective dead heat from election forecasts. A narrowing in Nate Silver’s probability forecast from around 56-44 to 50-50 has no doubt been influential, but the fundamental calculus is unchanged: the polls will very likely prove to have been out in one direction or another, and whoever they are underselling will take home the prize. For what it’s worth, The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models have ticked back a little to Harris over the past few days after narrowing to almost dead level a week ago, respectively putting her at 54% and 56%.
Considerably more depth on all this is available from Adrian Beaumont’s latest for The Conversation. The monthly Resolve Strategic polls for Nine Newspapers have been asking their Australian respondents who they would vote for if they could or would, consistently finding the fifty-first state to be deep blue: the latest has Kamala Harris at 52%, up two on last month, with Donald Trump down four to 21%.
Please note that this is the US thread — the open thread for general discussion is here.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3914
Australia is Kamala Kountry! 🙂
The Kamala Harris campaign is in negotiations to appear on Joe Rogan’s podcast.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/16/georgia-early-voting-numbers-record-election-2024/
Jimmy Carter was one of those early voters in Georgia.
Actually, going by the data in this graph, Georgia is very much an Early Voting state:
https://wapo.st/3YrzfJp
Hmm, I can see that that doesn’t work. 😐
Okay, I’ll make the article free to read:
https://wapo.st/3YrzfJp
“There are people that like for their candidate to look strong and to look like they are in command,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii). Speaking of Trump, he added: “This guy looks like he’s the last guy to leave the karaoke bar.”
“He’s gone from tough guy to elderly man saying random things,” Schatz said.
🙂
In any election in the world the more rightward candidate ALWAYS gets underestimated in the polls.
It’s not even close. Trump to win with >50% of the popular vote.
Quinnipiac has not been a good pollster for the Democrats this cycle, compared with its Tier 1 colleagues.
However today’s dual polls in adjoining Dixie states are intriguing:
North Carolina
Harris 50
Trump 47
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nc/nc10162024_crosstabs_swth19.pdf
Georgia
Harris 46
Trump 52
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ga/ga10162024_crosstabs_swth19.pdf
So why the near 10 point swing between the neighbours?
Some hints
NC White women
Harris 47
Trump 49
GA White women
Harris 34
Trump 65
The black numbers belies some other polls which found 46% backing Trump
NC Black
Harris 84
Trump 12
GA Black
Harris 85
Trump 13
Not doing the ‘dead people voting’ conspiracy theory any harm.
Sorry. Couldnt help it. I am sure he is just resting his eyes. But it cant be far off. Has he held on for this?
Interesting how they are all dressed up for the occasion. Nice to see. What are the things around their necks?
If Quinnipiac has diverged in its polls that probably indicates it IS a good pollster.
What happens to Trumps media stock if he loses? $3B wipeout in his net worth? Not to mention the legal troubles.
The dude is all in and not holding back. Again, if Harris wins, I hope the institutions are ready and up for what will follow.
Team Katich @ #14 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 8:12 am
I think the good thing in prospect is, if Kamala Harris wins and Trump lets loose his dogs of war, that the country has had practice in dealing with it from 2020/21 and will have stratagems in place. Also, the Democrats have appointed a shedload of judges over the last 3 years so that should help balance things out as well.
Confessions says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 6:23 am
How can one be “on the upside of a race that is too hard to call?
FUBAR @ #16 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 8:24 am
It’s a matter of interpretation. Which everyone is entitled to. We don’t have to conform to yours.
Kamala Harris is really hitting the black media. Here is a friendly couple of hip hoppers..
https://youtu.be/sNg_SGvQeg4?si=Ju3tjnpbccVamNaj
Harris blows Trump away in fundraising—again
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277163/-Harris-blows-Trump-away-in-fundraising-again?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web
“The Harris Victory Fund—which raises money for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and state Democratic groups—brought in a record-shattering $633 million in the third quarter, spanning July through September of this year. She spent nearly $600 million, and had $77 million left in the bank at the end of September.
Meanwhile, Trump’s two joint fundraising committees, Trump National Committee JFC and Trump 47 Committee, collectively raised just under $340 million. In other words, a lot less.
America PAC, which is doing much of Trump’s get out the vote operation, received $74.95 million from Elon Musk, its sole benefactor. Miriam Adelson, wife of the late casino mogul and big Trump donor Sheldon Adelson, gave $100 million to her own super PAC. Collectively, they were still swamped by Harris’ fundraising juggernaut.
Overall, the Harris campaign, together with Democratic groups, has brought in over $1 billion.
ActBlue logged its best quarter ever, with 6.9 million donors making 31 million contributions and raising a total of $1.5 billion for Democratic candidates up and down the ticket. That’s an average of $217 per donor.
ActBlue logged its best quarter ever, with 6.9 million donors making 31 million contributions and raising a total of $1.5 billion for Democratic candidates up and down the ticket. That’s an average of $217 per donor.
As the ActBlue blog reports:
• U.S. House and U.S. Senate fundraising remained strong with small-dollar donors contributing $131 million and $187 million for those candidates, respectively.
• Local races (councils, legislatures, and more) saw a 23% increase in fundraised dollars from the same period in 2020.
• Gubernatorial fundraising saw a near 70% increase in dollars raised from Q3 of 2020.
• Organizations fighting for voting rights received over $76 million in grassroots donations.
I’m optimistic about Trump losing but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he won. Harris has truly run a very weak campaign, maybe because many of the Biden campaigners are still around. All of the momentum gained from Biden dropping out, Trump nearly dying and JD Vance bombing their campaign has been eroded. Now we have Walz rushing to agree with Vance on issues (playing right into their hand), and Harris cosying up with the Cheneys (Dick having literally stolen an election before). Don’t really see what this is achieving when there is so much you can destroy Trump with. It felt like they were taking out the trash 2 months ago but now they want it back in.
I long for the day that Democrats will realise that bipartisanship makes you look like a party of elites, and that hurts them. Voters want the Republicans gone, they’ve proven countless times that they won’t work within the system or return any favours given to them.
Bean,
You appear to be taking no account of the demonisation campaign being waged by the Trump forces against Harris/Walz. They are very effective at this, with the guy running the campaign being the same one who was behind the Swift Boat campaign against John Kerry, which was devastatingly effective. Harris and Walz are doing very well coming in from a short run and actually having a continuation with the ground game that was being set up for Joe Biden is tilting the playing field, even if only slightly, in their favour. Also the story that sprocket_ put up yesterday about the Scroll site and how the Harris/Walz campaign is synergising their engagement online via it, was very informative. I would look for it if I was you to reassure yourself that they’ve got this. 🙂
Over and above that it’s up to the people of America.
Daily kos:
The good news just keeps on coming: In the competitive House races, Democrats averaged raising $2.4 million in the third quarter, while Republicans averaged half that, $1.2 million.
In Florida’s Senate race, Republican incumbent Rick Scott raised $4.2 million, his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, raised $12.9 million.
In Montana’s Senate race, embattled Democratic incumbent Jon Tester raised $32 million to his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy’s $9.8 million. Wow.
In Nebraska’s Senate race, suddenly threatened incumbent Republican Deb Fischer raised $1.2 million, while independent challenger Dan Osborn pulled in $3.3 million.
Here’s a fun one: In the Texas Senate race, endangered Republican incumbent Ted Cruz raised $17.2 million, while his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, raised—you ready for it?—$30.3 million.
Justice To Take Over Election Security Duties From MAGA Sheriff in Ohio
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277263/-Justice-To-Take-Over-Election-Security-Duties-From-MAGA-Sheriff-in-Ohio?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“One month ago, Portage County Sheriff Bruce Zuchowski urged MAGA partisans to write down the address of anyone who puts up a Harris sign in their yard. He wanted to target them if Harris, who he called a “flip-flopping laughing Hyena”, won, in order to blame them for the arrival of “illegal human Locusts”.
The problem with that, of course, beyond being reprehensible, is that he is the Sheriff of the County, and, as such, he is expected to provide election security to residents of the County for early voting. Needless to say, residents were aghast and fearful for their safety as well as that of their families.
Now the Washington Post is reporting that, not only has the County removed him from oversight of security for early voting, but the Justice Dept. has announced that they will be taking over those duties in his stead
ScromoII @ #10 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 7:31 am
Inane lying bullshit. A true Trumpy.
The Tech Lords are coming for a democracy near you.
Hey C@T
Some good points. I would wager that realistically, few people would really care about Walz’s service. The military guys have already thrown in their lot with Trump, and if you actually cared about stuff like that you probably wouldn’t vote for Trump since he routinely gets away with just straight up disrespecting the US military. I don’t really see the lines but I’d be welcome to seeing some proof.
American polling is truly beyond my realm of understanding. I prefer compulsory voting, keeps the polls simple!
Did anyone saw Harris interview on Fox, which finished about 1/2 hour ago?
How?
When?
Where?
Evidence?
yabba @ #24 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 9:35 am
Well, he has modelled his nom after you-know-who.
Bean @ #20 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 9:11 am
And there is a lesson there that Labor could usefully learn as well.
North Carolina Early Voting begins on Thursday and on Saturday in Nevada (American time).
FWIW
There is not the slightest hint here that the people leaving Trump’s rallies early are going to change their votes:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/16/leaving-trump-rallies-early
BTsays and some other posters specifically posted that Harris campaign stopped using the phrase of Biden campaign that “Trump is a threat to democracy” and that is not a smart move.
Well you should be glad to know that Harris is saying things by quoting from other people, who worked in Trump administration, like
1. Trump is “fascist to the core”
2. He is most dangerous man in the country
3. He is unstable and unhinged.
4. His words to put “the enemy within”, who disgrace with him and who are his political opponents.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 10:13 am
That clearly is an indicator that Harris is going to win. People from Denmark and Tesla owners who’s phones are going flat so won’t be able open their cars leaving EARLY!!!
”
Player Onesays:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 10:07 am
Bean @ #20 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 9:11 am
I long for the day that Democrats will realise that bipartisanship makes you look like a party of elites, and that hurts them. Voters want the Republicans gone, they’ve proven countless times that they won’t work within the system or return any favours given to them.
And there is a lesson there that Labor could usefully learn as well.
”
I know that this is not open thread but I am replying to this post as Lars asked me to piss off from open thread.
Yes, there is lesson there that Labor could learn.
It was effective because it was true.
Bean says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 9:11 am
I long for the day that Democrats will realise that bipartisanship makes you look like a party of elites…..
Bollocks.
The charge of elitism is just wrong. Look at the truly astonishing donations made to Democratic campaigns by small and first-time donors. Look at the truly astonishing increase in voter registration by rare voters – women of colour in particular. Look at the truly encouraging attendances at in-person rallies by common-or-garden variety voters. Look at the strength of early voting by Democratic supporters.
The claims of elitism are the usual bullshit typed by Greens who wish America was more like them. Well, it ain’t. 99% of US voters will vote for a candidate who is not a Green.
It doesn’t matter that the Trump rally early leavers will still vote for him.
The meta message is that his rambling speeches are boring.
FUBAR @ #36 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 10:27 am
You would say that. So, as you abruptly demand of others…
Evidence? Without referring to biased Right Wing websites and their Alternative Facts.
The Reactionary denigration of Kerry was all of a piece with their usual tactics, which consist of the relentless denunciation of Democratic candidates. The Reactionaries substitute defamation and deceit for policies. The are utterly sick-making. They deal in one thing – Lies. The are professional liars. They are paid to lie. They own and operate the principal machinery for the production and distribution of lies. They dominate lying. They are experts in it. They are proud of this.
FoxNews and their local running dogs, SkyNews, are freaking out about the Kamala Harris interview – worst ever, wouldn’t answer, losing trust, the bar was low..
So much so that they are refusing to put it up for people to watch in full.
From the clips I’ve seen, Kamala kicks Bret Bair’s Butt – like this…
https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/DBM7WyMADm8?xmt=AQGzW5p6DUf1kFF1WqjHIjWeleC8YL4SyU-xxejplggFOQ
https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/DBM8zqQA28j?xmt=AQGz5-yEJpD1f4lYswLrxPM1reER4TisCbA3ZATOQHH9OQ
There are now bootlegged full Kamala FoxNews interviews up on YouTube
Will let you find if so minded…
The claims of elitism come from disaffected leftists who used to have a home in Centre-left parties. Whether true or not (lets be honest, it’s true), it is a very popular and effective line against Democrats and often wielded against the Labour party at home. It is also a natural conclusion to make when you look at the rhetoric of the Democratic party. They spend all day and every campaign talking about how Republicans want to destroy womens rights and abortion rights, how they tried to steal the election with Jan 6, how they are a unique and apocalyptic threat to democracy.
Now they turn around and say we have to work together and have a functioning two-party system. It doesn’t add up to me, and it only legitimises the crazies. If the Republicans and LNP can always count on the Democrats and Labour to try to work with them first, then it gives them immense power to continue pushing the fold further to the right and also allows them dictate the political conversation.
Boerwar @ #32 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 9:13 am
Few things:
1. Several hundred walked out, the article cherry-picks comments from just a few.
2. It’s a US election. They don’t need to change their vote. Just sitting this one out will do.
3. Polls are open now; these people could vote for Trump if they so intend. None of them said they’ve already voted, none of them said they’re leaving early to get their vote in and counted.
The thing about liars is they are by definition dishonest. The dishonest are not to be trusted. Not at all. The liars – the paid, full-time, professional liars of the Reactionary corporates and religious scams – have set out to dominate the public sphere. It has become flooded with lies and has therefore become untrustworthy. In the absence of trust, happiness is not possible. The opposite is true. The public sphere is characterised by doubt, resentment, mistrust, grievance, deception, conspiracy and fabrications. Democracy should be a source of celebration. It’s the only thing ordinary people have going for them. Yet it has been deliberately corrupted by the Reactionaries.
Bean says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 10:51 am
The claims of elitism come from disaffected leftists…..
….that is, from voices who wish the rest of the population were more like them. The disaffected of both the left and the right berate the great unwashed for their bathing habits. The disaffected are quite entitled to be however they want to be. They should happily grant the same rights to everyone else.
The Democratic Party is trying to maintain its connections with and relevance to the great unwashed. The disaffected will have to please themselves.
IMO, Harris on FoxNews wasnt about what Fox news aired. it is about what the other networks pick up and run from it.
Yes, I see the posts saying that there are many independents that rely on Fox for their news and this was aimed at them. Not imo. Independents that rely on Fox are not independents anymore and arent going to be swayed by a full interview they show. They will instead be looking at what the Fox nutbags highlight. They arent going to vote for Harris in any meaningful numbers.
There may be some informed GOP traditionalists that could watch the whole thing and may either stay home or possibly vote for Harris if she does well. But not many.
But good on her for doing it.
Yes they are trying to plead to the middle and the unwashed masses, but by doing so they are jettisoning everything that makes them different to the other party. We have seen all over the world, and in America, that centre-left parties get higher turnouts when they support left-wing policies (or provide lip service in the case of America).
This big drive to meet the middle is robbing the party of political capital, as we are seeing in the UK where Keir (who had a lower turnout than Corbyn) is getting his ass handed to him by an empty chair. I mean the democrats are literally campaigning that Trump wouldn’t let them implement the Trump border policy. Sure it might be popular with 60% of people, but it also robs you of the chance to have an open discussion, to which you could rip them to shreds with a scare campaign. All you have to say is that police from New York are coming to Georgia to conduct ID checks on your whole family and you’ll the gun owners spinning out of control. If Trump denies that, then press him on how it would happen, because eventually you have to admit there’s no other way.
“There is not the slightest hint here that the people leaving Trump’s rallies early are going to change their votes”
But how many of them will be “too tired” etc. to vote?
Bean says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 11:26 am
Yes they are trying to plead to the middle and the unwashed masses, but by doing so they are jettisoning everything that makes them different to the other party.
Bullshit. Absolutely totally false claim. You are saying that the Democratic Party is equivalent to MAGA. This is false.
The premise is false on its own face.
What you want is a party that is not the Democratic Party. You want a wish-come-true Green Party. Too bad. Such a thing does not exist. By your entirely futile and pointless whinging about the Democrats you offer comfort to Trump and the Reactionaries.
One thing is very, very clear. Trump, MAGA, the Reactionaries….they absolutely detest everyone else. They despise us. They want to destroy anything that is in their way. This is the existential guts of it. So choose: choose the common-or-garden or the swindlers and the liars and the monopolists.