There’s been a fair bit of chatter around lately about momentum in favour of Donald Trump, but by any reasonable metric the situation remains as it’s been since the dust settled a few weeks after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Namely, poll aggregates have Kamala Harris up by three points nationally, which translates into an effective dead heat from election forecasts. A narrowing in Nate Silver’s probability forecast from around 56-44 to 50-50 has no doubt been influential, but the fundamental calculus is unchanged: the polls will very likely prove to have been out in one direction or another, and whoever they are underselling will take home the prize. For what it’s worth, The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models have ticked back a little to Harris over the past few days after narrowing to almost dead level a week ago, respectively putting her at 54% and 56%.
Considerably more depth on all this is available from Adrian Beaumont’s latest for The Conversation. The monthly Resolve Strategic polls for Nine Newspapers have been asking their Australian respondents who they would vote for if they could or would, consistently finding the fifty-first state to be deep blue: the latest has Kamala Harris at 52%, up two on last month, with Donald Trump down four to 21%.
The Bulwark take on the Kamala Fox interview is, on balance, positive.
https://youtu.be/9MUy_NefOHM?si=FCR3Bvo86VRphvuI
I have watched the whole interview on a Fox streaming ripoff site, probably run by a Kremlin stooge given the onscreen comments. Make no mistake, there is a very active anti-Kamala industry out there. If a fraction of the attitude is genuine, the race remains tight.
Btw, I reported the site to Google as a scam..
Apparently Rachel Maddow is reporting another Trump hush money payment to….
Stormy Daniels
.. but it’s ok for you to choose whatever sources you want.
I couldn’t be bothered going over it all again – fought that battle back then and we won.
The evidence that it was true is that he never sued for defamation. If it was untrue he would have won. It’s not like he can’t afford the best lawyers in the country to prosecute the case.
…and Maddow wouldn’t put out partisan information that might be inaccurate, would she?
You can trust her – completely unbiased. Apparently.
Shaban al-Dalou: The Palestinian teen burned to death in Israeli bombing. The 19-year-old had filmed himself donating blood and narrating his family’s displacement in Deir el-Balah. He was 19 years old, a software engineering student, and displaced from his home, trying to survive in central Gaza.
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/10/15/shaban-al-dalou-the-palestinian-teen-burned-to-death-in-israeli-bombing
I really want to vote against “progressive” parties in USA and Australia for what they are doing in West Asia in general and Gaza in particular.
But the thing is the other mob in those countries like USA and Australia and UK are simply nihilistic and want to destroy the world. I don’t like Greens at all.
Hence, I have no choice other than to vote for “progressive” party.
These so called “progressive” parties are abetting the conflict by supplying deadly weapons.
”
FUBARsays:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 12:10 pm
sprocket_says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 11:49 am
Apparently Rachel Maddow is reporting another Trump hush money payment to….
Stormy Daniels
…and Maddow wouldn’t put out partisan information that might be inaccurate, would she?
You can trust her – completely unbiased. Apparently.
”
Rachel Maddow is the only journalist I fully trust.
My@12:16 pm post
“These so called “progressive” parties are abetting the conflict by supplying deadly weapons.
”
should be read
“These so called “progressive” parties are aiding and abetting the conflict by supplying deadly weapons.
Thank you – that made me laugh out aloud.
Did you believe her when she said that the COVID Vaccine stops a vaccinated person from catching the virus and stops transmission of the virus to others?
I agree with Trump that if he is President there won’t be Ukraine war because he will give Ukraine to Russia. Then all hell will break loose in West is a different story.
But his claim that there won’t be Gaza, Lebanon and other ME war is false because he will give total and free reign to Israel to wage that war and Liberal party of Australia will fully support that.
All this could lead to WW3 is another story.
That is reason MAGA Republican party is nihilistic and dangerous party in the world.
Ven says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 12:16 pm
I really want to vote against “progressive” parties in ….Australia for what they are doing in West Asia in general and Gaza in particular.
Australia has no influence whatsoever in these domains. None. It cannot influence Iran. It cannot influence Hamas. It cannot influence Lebanon/Hezbollah. It cannot influence Netanhayu/Israel. It cannot influence anyone of relevance to the conflicts that we all witness.
These conflicts could all be brought to an immediate end if that suited the protagonists. But it doesn’t suit them. They gain from prolonging them. Voting for or against anyone in Australia on account of the war making of others is really the emptiest protest a person could make.
Better to send money to Medicin Sans Frontiers.
The thing is….Hamas/Iran are winning in a certain sense. They have aroused global opinion against Israel. This is also stimulating anti-semitism. It’s stimulating hostility to progressive political leadership. These are political gains made by Iran and its militarised/theocratic proxies in the conflicts.
You may count yourself as a gain by the Shia.
Rally Songs…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUAV1aN16eM&ab_channel=JabariJones
”
toogesays:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 12:43 pm
Ven says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 12:16 pm
I really want to vote against “progressive” parties in ….Australia for what they are doing in West Asia in general and Gaza in particular.
Australia has no influence whatsoever in these domains. None.
”
Stooge
Whether I am a gain to them or not, I will vote for ALP and I am still campaigning for Democrats, the hypocrite that I am.
ALP and Democrats know that and that is the reason hence are aiding and abetting Netanyahu government.
Stooge I don’t understand how any of what I said makes you think I want Trump to win. I’m just highlighting how Democrats have sacrificed some of their greatest electoral strengths in pursuit of appeasing the middle. I personally think that when the mood shifts right, there’s no point being the centre-right party. We are seeing the PASOKification of the centre-right in Europe right now, there’s no electoral apetite for it. Now America is very different than the concept of Europe itself, but I do fear that once you trade in these issues for votes, you lose the ability to campaign on them for quite some time.
The Israel/Gaza/Lebanon stuff isn’t really helping Harris either. It’s clear to anybody who cares about the issue that they won’t do anything differently than to what Biden or Trump are doing or will do, so it’s probably best to just shut up about it altogether and hope that people aren’t reminded of it before they vote.
I’ll be honest I checked out when I saw the main thread had a whole page of FUBAR and BW posting without responding to anyone in particular
MABWN
It is the way of the web. Especially a politics based blog. And, well, I dont mind a little toe to toe but on PB it often ends up a never ending sledgefest that overwhelms the good stuff. So I plead with peeps to use the main thread to get your grumps fix and keep this thread reasonably clean to discuss important matters like….. how WOMADelaide have announced that PJ Harvey is playing! Woooo hoooooo!
”
sprocket_says:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 11:49 am
Apparently Rachel Maddow is reporting another Trump hush money payment to….
Stormy Daniels
”
All In with Chris Hayes
@allinwithchris
NOW on
@MSNBC
: Rachel Maddow breaks down her bombshell reporting on how Trump is once again trying to pay Stormy Daniels to be quiet. (Watch video)
https://x.com/allinwithchris/status/1846711805650895132?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846711805650895132%7Ctwgr%5Ef768a7ee3ff0676975a938401eba97c1050752e0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F16%2F2277337%2F-Maddow-Trump-is-Trying-to-Make-More-Hush-Money-Payments-to-Porn-Star-Stormy-Daniels
You’re nitpicking over one word. Maddow said “stop” but technically it only mostly stops so therefore she’s a horrid liar and shitty journalist. Okay then.
And you’re not even doing a good job with the nitpicking. Reduce transmission rates enough and infection stops. Not because the vaccine (or anything else) 100% stops the virus, but because if you slow transmission enough the virus peters out on its own.
You can be vaccinated for tetanus but still probably shouldn’t go swimming in a vat of the stuff. Didn’t mean every practitioner pushing tetanus vaccinations is a fraud.
This article has redacted letter from Trump lawyers to Stormy Daniels
and also a video of Rachel Maddow explaining the latest payments.
Why is Trump once again trying to pay Stormy Daniels to be quiet.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2274431/-Why-is-Trump-once-again-trying-to-pay-Stormy-Daniels-to-be-quiet?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Kamala HQ
@KamalaHQ(watch linked video)
Trump: You can get the prices down
Fox host: How? How would you do that? The inflation rate is already coming down
Trump: You make donuts. You have the stoves. You have the this. Everything has evolved
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1846574624055710138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846574624055710138%7Ctwgr%5Ee8fda901c841f696e1892275b1c67b31aaaa0f5c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F16%2F2277268%2F-Donald-s-theory-You-make-donuts-You-have-the-stoves-You-have-the-this-Everything-has-evolved
Walz roasts Trump—but reminds us a GOP win is no laughing matter(watch video at the end of the article)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277066/-Walz-roasts-Trump-but-reminds-us-a-GOP-win-is-no-laughing-matter?pm_source=ICYMI&pm_campaign=ICYMI10162024
It is so funny watching the pro-Christmas MAGA turkey squad seething about Harris’ social media posts. Harris speaks with a forked tongue! She lies! She liessssss!
lol
lololol
Excerpts of Harris’s Fox News interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp9YaAY9DjM&t=506s
Some good polls today. Fox News poll isnt great reading. And the Marquette poll is a little confounding with the way they add other candidates (Harris ahead) and Evens on a direct head to head. But the rest are pointing to a fairly solid (but within MOE) lead to Harris. Fairliegh Dickson Uni, a highly rated and occasional polling unit is adding to this.
And an article by Silver on the issue of flooding the polling aggregators (discussed here yesterday) which is most interesting.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
Omar Comin’ @ #76 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 2:52 pm
Too busy admiring themselves in the mirror, when they should be reflecting.
Last night’s Kimmel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn-Dw2JUVmo&t=338s
Looking at the FoxPoll outlier with Trump +2 nationally to see any hint as to how they got there.
Zilch. Why?
There is no demographics whatsoever – no male/female, ethnicity, education, city/country, age – nothing. The methodology says
When necessary, weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to
ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the registered voter
population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox
News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Which is the only reference – secret sauce applied.
Plenty of results of registered and likely going back years, but no explanation other than possibly the last page where the Republicans seem to have jumped 3 in the sample…
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/10/fox_october-11-14-2024_national_topline_october-16-release.pdf
But I was told yesterday this was bunkum. What’s interesting is that he doesnt include the RCP polling averages in his examples, which almost all show red outcomes. I posted those and 538’s yesterday to show the difference.
Harris is ahead by 3.0 points nationally in this simple average. But when you look at only Republican-aligned firms, she’s up by only 2.0 points. Removing those polls from the average brings Harris up to a 3.4 point national lead.
Ven – While Trump can make it harder for Ukraine to prosecute defence of their nation he cannot ‘stop the war’.
Lichtman sets the record straight about the only election he allegedly got wrong – the 2000…:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Af3hKnrexs&t=631s
@mostly interested this is really just used as an opportunity to remind us that he is a very clever man (VCM) and we need to put our faith exclusively in his black box, which he keeps separated from his very legal and very cool cryptocurrency based betting exchange using advanced Chinese wall technology.
Gabriel Sterling, a top Georgia state elections official, posted on X that the numbers meant “that we will break past the half a million votes cast today. That’s 10% of the turnout we saw in 2020. Big numbers!” By day’s end, the two-day total stood at 581,902.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/16/georgia-early-voting-numbers-record-election-2024/
Kamala NGMI
It’s Joever
JaylinWoodic @ #89 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 4:58 pm
What-ever 😐
Not sure what a Milwauke “pool spray” is but it sounds like fun. 😆
I haven’t watched the interview, but does this sum it up okay? 😆
It’s probably worse than it sounds. Like the press pool gets to ask questions, or something.
Keep voting US! You all need to vote, otherwise the very noisy minority will hold sway again! Dems won the most votes in ’92, 96, 2000, 08, 12, 16 and 20 and yet we have had 3 Repug Pres’ in that time and the Repugs dominate the house, the senate and the SC. RIGGED!
The only way to avoid the death of democracy is if Kamala wins and wins big.
They really do need a Federal Electoral Commission, mandatory voting and preferential voting, the poor possums.
An update on the Georgia Election Board Rule Changes lawsuits:
https://youtu.be/VyIfnHb4nHU?si=bKgBPUETJqbbjhGC
a r:
I’m thrilled she’s stepping up her game and doing all these events. Her physical advantage over Trump is as massive as her intelectual one, and she should be deploying it to the fullest of her abilities, just as she has done with her cognitive advantage. And to that end I’m also thrilled she’s starting to do press gaggles raising Trump’s mental abilities. It’s about time the media started covering Trump’s declining cognitive state in the same way they obsessed over Biden’s age related decline.
Fess
Here is an example of a ‘pool spray’ today. Getting on the plane, a couple of selected journos and film crew get a few words, they are obligated to share the vision with the rest of the media pool..
https://youtu.be/fZHaU9oibZ0?si=mctM9cZMqhXFNh7k
Donald Trump’s black swan event was the other day when he was wound up like a toy ready to ramble for his usual hour or so but a couple of medical events meant he glitched, went bzwap! and ended up like this swaying to music for 39 minutes:
sprocket:
Awesome. A gaggle with no over ownership of the footage.
So how is Elon Musk’s outsourced door knocking for Trump going?
NEW BERLIN, Wis. — As she prepared to knock on her first door of the day, Alysia McMillan switched her red MAGA hat for a white one that read simply: AMERICA. It was part of the uniform issued by America PAC, a super PAC formed by billionaire Elon Musk to campaign for former president Donald Trump.
McMillan, one of hundreds of canvassers working on behalf of America PAC to turn out Trump voters in battleground states, was setting out for a full day’s work in this Wisconsin suburb. But three hours and about 30 doors later on a warm October afternoon, the 31-year-old was getting discouraged.
The mobile app she used to map her route and know which homes she should visit kept glitching. Several times it directed her to knock on the door of a house with blue lawn signs endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. Most of her knocks so far that day had received no response, and the few voters who answered were either undecided, or uninterested in talking.
“That’s none of your business,” one woman said after McMillan asked if she was planning to vote for Trump. “I’m on the fence,” said another, who refused to elaborate when McMillan gently asked why.
“I’m not voting for Trump!” exclaimed a third as she slammed the door.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/10/15/musk-america-pac-door-knocking/
Thank f for that.
That’s not a bug, it’s a feature.
The mobile app she used to map her route and know which homes she should visit kept glitching.
Brought to you by Elon Musk.
Ridiculous claim.
Omar Comin, my poorly expressed thoughts were that Silver backs up what I was saying and that there are some folk on here that can’t possibly believe that there’s a slew of red leaning polls, which RCP don’t filter for and hence hey their averages are different to everyone one else’s
FUBAR – How would you propose you’d get rid of a Trump or Trump-lite admin in 2028 if you have a) Presidential immunity b) stacked SCOTUS c) a VP happy not to certify and d) State election officials prepared to do the Presidential bidding? There’s more but I can’t be f’d because I have a shitload more important things to do.