Evidence is starting to emerge of a strengthening in Kamala Harris’s position in the wake of last week’s debate, and while this hardly amounts to a paradigm shift in terms of the popular vote – after rounding to whole numbers, The Economist’s poll aggregate records no change from Harris’s 50-46 lead when the debate was held on September 10 – it’s been enough to move forecast models substantially in her favour. Nate Silver’s model is the most striking case in point, with Trump’s win probability falling from 59.7% to 52.0% just over the past few days, having peaked at 64.4% the day before the debate. After bouncing around 52-48 for a couple of weeks, The Economist’s probability reading now has Harris leading 57-43. FiveThirtyEight’s model remains the most bullish for the Democrats, putting Harris’s win probability at 63%. More from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation.
This is an article published in dailykos, which was originally published in 19th (like SMH does)
Abortion quietly drives voting conversation in Georgia—even if it isn’t on the ballot
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/22/2271831/-Abortion-quietly-drives-voting-conversation-in-Georgia-even-if-it-isn-t-on-the-ballot?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“Callie Beale Harper was 37 when she found out she was pregnant with twins. Already the mom to a four-year-old son, she and her husband were so excited to grow their family, they opted for noninvasive prenatal testing as soon as it was available, at 10 weeks gestational age.
Two weeks later, they learned there was a 96 percent chance one of the twins had a chromosomal abnormality. A visit to a maternal-fetal specialist in Atlanta one week later confirmed their worst fears.
As soon as the ultrasound technician located her son in utero, “I immediately knew that so many things were wrong. His little body was incredibly swollen, completely filled with fluid, and that was honestly really painful to see, because I just hoped that he wasn’t in pain,” Beale Harper told The 19th.
The doctor explained that there were multiple structural abnormalities that would make him “incompatible with life. There was no hope for him, as far as any number of surgeries he could have had to then be OK.” The doctor recommended a procedure known as selective reduction, when one of the fetuses in a multiple pregnancy is terminated to better the chances of a healthy pregnancy and birth for the remaining fetuses. It is a form of abortion.
Beale Harper — who describes herself as a “lover of Jesus” and “great mom” — lives in Georgia, where such a procedure is illegal under the state’s six-week abortion ban. And she knows there are others in the state like her — people who, for a wide variety of reasons, oppose the ban and feel motivated to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris because of it.
Georgia’s constitution prohibits the kind of ballot initiatives that are popping up nationwide to codify abortion rights; for the existing six-week ban to be reversed, there would either have to be some kind of new federal law guaranteeing abortion access or a new bill passed by the Georgia legislature and signed into law by the governor. But for a broad and diverse coalition of Peach State voters, abortion is still on the ballot — a reality that seems evident to reproductive rights advocates (and opponents) in the state, as well as the Harris campaign, which is putting time and resources into keeping the issue front and center.
“In every space that I’ve walked into since Kamala Harris has been at the top of the ticket, abortion has been part of the discussion,” Democratic Georgia state Rep. Shea Roberts told The 19th. “So even though we can’t do a citizen-led ballot initiative, these events are packed.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/20/trump-harris-election-abortion-georgia
One thing I’ve noticed about Kamala Harris is that she knows how to choose the right words to skewer Donald Trump, and she has just done it again:
Kamala Harris laid down another challenge to Republican rival Donald Trump to meet her for a second debate before November’s presidential election, telling supporters in New York that her opponent “seems to be looking for an excuse” to avoid a second confrontation.
On Saturday, the vice-president and Democratic nominee said she had accepted an invitation from CNN to debate the former president, but Trump said it was already “too late”.
In her remarks at a New York fundraiser, Harris doubled down in her taunting of Trump over the issue, saying: “I think we should have another debate.”
“I accepted an invitation to debate in October, which my opponent seems to be looking for an excuse to avoid when he should accept,” she added. “He should accept because I feel very strongly that we owe it to the American people, to the voters, to meet once more before election day.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/22/harris-trump-second-debate-excuse-cnn
Womens reproductive rights are the main game.
And there is nothing the GOP can do about it.
Analysis by another numbers man:
Thanks, citizen. Interesting.
Tim Walz on fire in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania:
https://www.youtube.com/live/6lmFhEHzCl8?si=Hr_XTVWW8b-99Duv
Ven @ #332 Monday, September 23rd, 2024 – 6:27 am
Actually that makes a fair bit of sense. The unbelievable part is how many of the rank-and-file/rusted-ons are happy to go along with it and keep voting Republican.
a r @ #359 Monday, September 23rd, 2024 – 10:28 am
It’s exemplified by the Mark Robinson issue. He comes up with some frankly crazy excuse and lie for his obvious infractions which were uncovered legitimately by an investigative journalist. And the broken-brained MAGA followers go, yeah. Then troop to the polls to vote for the guy.
There has been some discussion over the years about the “shy Republican” phenomenon, said to cause polls to underestimate support for Mr Trump. But with an issue as sensitive as abortion now on the agenda, I’ve wondered whether there might this time be shy Democrats: women who are pro-choice, but don’t want to say so to a pollster, especially if there are family members around?
Interview with Emerson College on polling 2 days old.
Near the end the interviewer asked about the quality of the polling. I find it difficult to comprehend how poor so many people’s comprehension of how polling works actually is. The idea of margins of error seem to not enter into people’s thinking, and how this impacts probably assessments.
If the MOE sits at one end or the other then the probability of either outcome is vastly different. We’re getting close to 60/40 Harris/Trump, but that’s based on hoping the MOE is not at either end of the scale. Of course we won’t know how accurate the polling was until months after the election, but stop with the such and such a candidate is leading in the polls ergo they’ll win.
https://youtu.be/aHNaorkbabg?si=EHEJn7n7FwyhSehq
Nope. It’s 50/50 at best. Don’t look at the polls. Don’t speculate that maybe Harris has hidden support. The entire thing is on a knife-edge for the next 7 weeks.
On the subject of shy Trump voters though, there can’t be any of those left? They’re out and proud now. Openly trying to out-crazy each other. Not even trying to hide their efforts to sabotage the electoral process. The days where lying to pollsters was the worst thing Trump’s zombies got up to seem quaint, by comparison.
Trump really has a problem accepting that Kamala Harris is receiving all the celebrity endorsements instead of himself.
”
citizensays:
Monday, September 23, 2024 at 1:36 pm
Trump really has a problem accepting that Kamala Harris is receiving all the celebrity endorsements instead of himself.
‘This isn’t the real Oprah’: Trump lashes out at talkshow host over Harris support
”
So impersonator of Oprah as per Trump and his MAGAs will believe that. 🙂
This is getting crazier and crazier by the day.
The very early polling about the debate outcomes showed some interesting splits in terms of ‘shy’ felon voters.
Has Adam Bandt picked up the phone to wish Jill Stein well in her struggle against centrist Harris?
A good read….
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/09/teamsters-union-sean-obrien-harris-trump.html
citizen says:
Monday, September 23, 2024 at 9:36 am
Analysis by another numbers man:
Fortune magazine
Data scientist nails the Trump gaffe that started what looks today like a building Harris landslide
Whenever he opens his mouth Trump campaigns against himself/for Harris. His racism, his misogyny, his compulsive hate-making have put him in control of the Republican Party. These characteristics will ensure his electoral destruction. Hopefully his legal troubles will subsequently result in his incarceration.
How sweet it will be to hear a judge saying “Lock him Up.”
Thanks, TK. Sean O’Brien made a poor call by thinking Joe Biden would remain in the race.
In all seriousness. Trump has so many enemies. Both within the MAGA world, outside it, including foreign entities.
He has sold so many loyalists down the river. He has also financially ripped off so many people. Too many to count.
He is now at the point of no longer being a useful idiot.
I don’t think he is even safe within the walls of Maralago. He better watch his back. You know the saying. Third time is the charm.
Polling appears to be coalescing in Harris’s favour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_s4wokKUKZI
Hugo Lowell of The Guardian Says Trump Campaign Thought The Debate Would Be A Reset Moment. (Watch video)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/22/2272166/-Hugo-Lowell-of-The-Guardian-Says-Trump-Campaign-Thought-The-Debate-Would-Be-A-Reset-Moment?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Highlights of Lowell’s Video:
•Trump campaign officials were hoping that the debate would be a “reset” moment for the campaign. • In other words, Trump sycophants were hoping that Trump would seize the initiative and break through Harris’s domination of the race.
• Trump cronies know they lost the debate, even if Trump is in La La Land.
• In other words, Trump officials know that Trump shit the bed.
Trump’s “debate prep” was just him sitting around shooting the shit with his staff. No one was a stand in for Harris — and I am looking at you Tulsi Gabbard.
• Trump is so brittle and fragile that Harris crossing the stage to shake his hand threw the asshole, according to his own staff. Seriously.
• The infamous “Haitians are eating pets” line was ACTUALLY PLANNED! There was some big plan to “pivot” to attacking Harris on immigration, but Trump got bogged down in actual fact checking in real time. And Trump saying, “I saw it on TV” was not supposed to be uttered.
Translation: Trump came off as a weird nut.
• Without the “reset” Trump has no message or strategy for the rest of the race.
• Once again, Lowell points out how little GOTV ground game the Trump campaign actually has. At best, Trump has a midterm level of GOTV operations in key swing states, unlike Harris who is swamping Republican efforts to reach voters.
”
PBers, who don’t read my posts, especially dailykos articles, go and read Guardian’s Hugo Lowell article or watch video.
The VP debate is in just over a week and I should offer a few warnings:
1) Tim Walz, by his own admission, is not a good debater. It’s not his strong suit.
2) JD Vance went to law school at Yale and has had experience in professional communications. He is much better trained in debating. While he does have a tendency to espouse weird views, he is less likely to have a weird outburst.
3) I am not saying the above to set a very low bar for Walz or high bar for Vance. There will still be an expectation that Walz can hold his own, just don’t expect something similar to the Presidential debate from the other week.
4) Ultimately, it doesn’t really matter. VP debates are nothing more than vanity exercises to entertain political nerds. They don’t really move the needle one way or another (and if they do, it’s by the smallest amount and only very temporary.)
Wat, yes, Walz needs to be well prepared and at his best – dont underestimate Vance. And, well, it shouldn’t matter much. But Harris is on a roll and they dont want to give the MSM air to feed a false balance of negative coverage. They will jump at any slight opportunity to show they are giving “even/fair” coverage.
This is one of those examples where I wish Buttigieg was the VP candidate.
Has anyone even bothered to watch any of the Tim Walz rallies I put up? He may not be a debater in the classic style but I think he’ll be more than capable of throwing a few verbal punches at JD Vance and will likely make JD look like the unprincipled poonce he is.
You wouldn’t know it from his TV interviews. Every interview he’s done he comes away with another gaffe.
C@tmomma @ #376 Monday, September 23rd, 2024 – 5:25 pm
I don’t watch the full things – simply no time. But I see grabs of them on TikTok and Instagram and he has a natural relatability with the audience. Will that translate to a debate format with no audience is the question. But I think he’ll do better than Vance who has zero personality.
I’m not sure a VP’s debate has ever settled anything other than perhaps informing the voter of their capacity should their running mate expire. Waltz will more than hold his own against Vance.
Wat
Interesting post, IMO.
What rates as a win, equal, or a loss for either Walz or Vance?
What partially settled Trump’s hash in his loss to Harris was the body language and the vibe.
Walz is more likely to come across as sincere and genuine.
Vance is more likely to come across as glib.
It will be interesting.
I think a win for Walz wouldn’t be so much him defeating Vance on talking points but rather the contrast between the two personalities and the vibe. (Sort of what I think is being alluded to in previous posts.) Vance might end up being more the pugilist but Walz just ends up coming off as more likable.
Similar to Bush v. Gore (or even Bush v. Kerry) where the latter definitely was a better debater but people found Bush more likable (and no, I am not saying Bush and Walz are the same.)
WB: Can they do these kind of things?
”
Casey (she/her)
@MamaSissieSays
Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen left Kamala Harris’s name OFF the Montana absentee ballot!
Ma’am.
MA’AAAM. You’ve previously been sued for removing names off petitions & you told County Commissioners NOT to hire certain candidates (Democrats)…this isn’t even discreet
”
Ballot error shuts down Montana online absentee voting system
https://dailyinterlake.com/news/2024/sep/20/ballot-error-shuts-down-montana-online-absentee-voting-system/
“When Max Himsl opened his electronic ballot on Friday, he was dismayed to see a candidate missing from the list of options.
Voting absentee electronically while living abroad, Himsl saw that under the options for president, only Republican Donald Trump and Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were listed. Missing was Democrat Kamala Harris.
(snip)
“This is very concerning to me,” said Himsl, who reported the issue to the Flathead County Election Department on Friday morning. Soon after he received an email notifying him that the Montana Secretary of State’s office was aware of and working to correct the error. “
Mark Robinson’s campaign in freefall. The staff resignations have begun:
https://youtu.be/isgIhk2H1SE?si=jJfE-cwhoBi4jaBP
I don’t think the ‘shy Trump voter’ is a big thing at all. This is not 2016.
But there MAY (or may not!) still be such a thing as a ‘hard to reach’ Trump voter. They are such low propensity voters in the past, they are very actively being courted by the Trump campaign and they MAY (or may not!) be being underestimated in the polls, especially those pollsters that use past voting history to predict future voting likelihood (regardless of candidate).
Frankly, we will have no idea until after the election, if then.
“Has Adam Bandt picked up the phone to wish Jill Stein well in her struggle against centrist Harris?”
Harris is absolutely not centrist. But she’s doing a darn good job of redefining / positioning herself somewhere not too far from there for this election, full credit given.
“I don’t think he is even safe within the walls of Maralago. He better watch his back. You know the saying. Third time is the charm.”
That last sentence is very tasteless in this context. Bit shocked to see such a poor choice of words on PB, notwithstanding the partisanship that is sometimes prevalent.
C@tmomma @ #383 Monday, September 23rd, 2024 – 6:55 pm
Perhaps Trump can send in JD Vance?
What’s Behind Trump’s Best Poll Results in Weeks
By Nate Cohn
…
This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina find Donald J. Trump leading Kamala Harris in all three states, with a lead of three points in North Carolina, four points in Georgia and five points in Arizona.
…
In another sense, this result might give you a bit of polling whiplash. As I wrote in my weekly polling summary, the polls have been relatively stable over the last week — or even a hair better for Vice President Harris than polls taken before the debate. These latest Times/Siena results don’t fit that story at all: On average, the results are five points better for Mr. Trump than they were when we last polled these states, in mid-August. And in each state, these results are the best results for Mr. Trump from a high-quality pollster in weeks.
In circumstances like this, our rule of thumb is to toss the results into a polling average — like our Times polling average.
Of the three states, Georgia is the one where the balance of polling is most clearly favorable to Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris hasn’t led a poll of Georgia taken in September, and Mr. Trump has led in several high-quality polls, like a three-point lead in a University of Georgia poll last week.
North Carolina, on the other hand, is arguably the one where the Times/Siena data most starkly departs from the most recent data. Our poll average previously gave Ms. Harris a narrow lead, as she’s had strong results from multiple high-quality polls — including our last Times/Siena poll of the state in August. This one is a very different result even if it’s also a return to normalcy in a way: Mr. Trump won the state narrowly in 2020.
Arizona is the murkiest. There hasn’t been as much polling of the state, period, and there’s never been a time when the polls there have strung together a consistent story. That goes for the last Times/Siena poll, which had Ms. Harris up five in August but now has Mr. Trump up five today. This is our biggest poll-to-poll swing of the year, and it’s hard to believe the race has really moved so much. It’s a helpful reminder that polls of this size (about 700 respondents) are subject to meaningful random sampling error. Nonetheless, Ms. Harris has led only two of the 18 Arizona polls fielded since that last Times/Siena poll; it was hard to make the case for a Harris lead even before this survey.
….’
A POINT OF CLARIFICATION. IN THE BELOW POST BT REFERS TO PARTS OF TWO POSTS BY TWO POSTERS AND CONFLATES THEM CARELESSLY. I DID NOT WRITE THE SENTENCE TO WHICH BT OBJECTS. I HAVE POSTED IN THE PAST MY ABHORRENCE OF THE USE OF VIOLENCE IN DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES.
THAT SAID I STILL WONDER WHETHER BANDT HAS PHONED GREENS STEIN TO CONGRATULATE HER ON HER EFFORTS TO GET TRUMP ELECTED. IN THE SAME WAY BANDT’S GREENS ARE WORKING TO GET DUTTON ELECTION.
===================================
‘BTSays says:
Monday, September 23, 2024 at 6:59 pm
“Has Adam Bandt picked up the phone to wish Jill Stein well in her struggle against centrist Harris?”
Harris is absolutely not centrist. But she’s doing a darn good job of redefining / positioning herself somewhere not too far from there for this election, full credit given.
“I don’t think he is even safe within the walls of Maralago. He better watch his back. You know the saying. Third time is the charm.”
That last sentence is very tasteless in this context. Bit shocked to see such a poor choice of words on PB, notwithstanding the partisanship that is sometimes prevalent.’
————————
Netanyahu appears to be doing everything he possibly can to engineer a way back in for Trump. What’s a regional war against Trump v2?
Encouraging news for those who think betting markets are more reliable than opinion polls.
Politic@l Spinner@lesstenny·14m
“US Presidential Election
Kamala $1.77
Trump. $ 2.05
Source: TAB”
Mavis, thanks for the vid on models.
60:40 is a tight tight election, a MOE in favour of Trump in any of those 4 states gives him the election. A reminder the MOE in Pennsylvania has been 7% and Harris’ lead in those 4 states is well inside the MOE.
Apart from the “bit shocked to see such a poor choice of words on PB” bit, I completely agree.
This is extraordinary and extreme at the same time. And this doesn’t take in other revenue/fundraising streams that link back to Team Harris.
Confessions @ #395 Monday, September 23rd, 2024 – 9:01 pm
And Old Don is running a free earned media campaign on a shoestring again, like in 2016.
JD Vance is still carrying on about Haitian immigrants eating pets. I really hope he brings this shit to the debate.
https://x.com/crampell/status/1837918070423060798
C@t:
He’s shilling bitcoin, personalised coins, sneakers, parts of his suit the day he was shot. I mean, really? What next? Toenail clippings, his facial hair shavings? The whole thing is just getting more and more desperate.
BTsays
Trump should not be shot or any such attempts should be made on his life with assault weapons.
But one thing is for sure. The people, who made attempts on his life were Republicans with mental health issues and still had access to long range assault guns to shoot from long distance.
Another thing is for sure. He is a convicted felon, who should be locked up in jail for his crimes as per sentencing guidelines.
He repeatedly said and did things, which were threat to democracy of USA(I am not saying that. Learned, intelligent and patriotic Americans said that).
A lot people he endorsed to contest as Governors, Senators and HORs are bat-shit-crazy and truly insane or bordering on evil.
So, there is no way a sane person, who believes in democracy can support Trump.
Confessions @ #398 Monday, September 23rd, 2024 – 9:11 pm
Money going to pay his legal bills to the smart lawyers he can’t shaft.
There are 500,000 Haitians living in South Florida:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWMBqfL1K1I
Hey guys it’s been a while since I posted so I’m just gonna say this I think it’s Harris’s to lose now the momentum’s behind her she has to keep on course while trump’s just acting like an idiot I think the debate really did him in