US presidential election minus eight weeks

After a fortnight in which the balance of the polls tipped back towards Donald Trump, indications of a clear win to Kamala Harris in yesterday’s debate.

The most robust item on reaction to yesterday’s presidential candidates’ debate, at least so far as I’m aware, is a CNN poll “conducted by text message with 605 registered US voters who said they watched the debate”, which recorded a 63-37 win for Kamala Harris from a sample that going in had a 50-50 split on who they expected to win. This doesn’t quite match the 67-33 result in favour of Trump after the June 27 debate that marked the beginning of the end for Joe Biden, but it isn’t far off, and both seem about as close to decisive as can be expected by the polarised standards of American politics.

It was a win that Harris badly needed, if recent polls and forecast results are any guide. The latter have recorded what looks to my untrained eye like a dividend for Donald Trump from Robert F. Kennedy’s withdrawal, sufficient to reduce the modest lead Harris opened up in The Economist’s model to effectively nothing. Still more striking has been the recent form of Nate Silver’s model, which won the approval of Trump himself by swinging to a 64.4% probability in his favour as of Monday, though it’s since eased to 61.3%. The divergence between the two models, which were hitherto finely matched, appears to be largely down to Silver’s model correcting for an anticipated Harris convention bounce, of which the polls have offered no sign.

Adrian Beaumont has an update on the polling situation in The Conversation, dating from Monday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “US presidential election minus eight weeks”

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  2. It seems counter intuitive that Trump is ahead in the polls. He is floundering about without the one lifesaver he had been pinning all his hopes on and what the right wing pro Trump media had been pump priming for years ( including our very own sky chanell) that was Bidens supposed dementia and frailty. He is now being exposed for what he is, an old,cranky guy of limited intelligence who’s only strength like much of the right, is insults.

  3. I love how the headlines and chatter the day after the debate are about how Trump got suckered into the right wing ecosystem meme about migrants stealing and eating pets. The media is also now doing its own fact checking which is great to see.

    Frank Luntz@FrankLuntz
    ·
    6h
    Factory CEO in Springfield, Ohio:

    “Our Haitian associates come to work every day, they don’t have drug problems, they’ll stay at their machines, they’ll achieve their numbers, they are here to work – that’s a sharp difference from what we’re used to.”

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1833866221978312704

  4. YouGov’s first MRP estimates of the 2024 presidential election (n=95,643)

    Harris: 256
    Trump: 235
    Toss ups: 47
    ——
    Popular vote
    Harris: 50%
    Trump: 47%
    ——
    Lean Harris
    Michigan – Harris +5 (51-46)
    Wisconsin – Harris +4 (51-47)
    Nevada – Harris +4 (51-47)
    —
    Toss ups
    Pennsylvania: Harris +1 (49-48)
    Arizona: Trump +1 (49-48)
    Georgia: Tie (49-49)
    —
    Lean Trump
    North Carolina – Trump +2 (50-48)
    —
    Likely Trump
    Texas – Trump +5 (51-46)
    Florida – Trump +6 (52-46)
    —
    Likely Harris
    Minnesota – Harris +7 (52-45)
    Virginia – Harris +9 (53-44)
    New Hampshire – Harris +8 (53-45)
    ——
    N=95,643 | August 23 – September 9
    https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50489-yougov-first-mrp-estimates-of-the-2024-presidential-election

  7. I’m glad Melania’s little trick shot of trying to tie Kamala Harris into the assassination attempt on Old Don, on the morning of the debate, missed the basket by a mile.

  9. How did a small focus group of swing voters react to the debate? In short they were impressed by Harris.

    Carol, a Pennsylvania swing voter, put it this way in July: “I’m fine that she’s Black. I’m fine that she’s a woman. But is she the best person for this job?”

    The nine-person focus group my team spoke with this morning weighed in on Carol’s question. We asked these voters how they would describe Harris’s performance. The most common response: “presidential.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/kamala-harris-trump-debate-sexism-bar/679791/?gift=qXjqwUsXcHZWmnhI5mWkNcABf4_Ik_UQqCOCGON4QO8&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social

  10. Nate Silver tweets an interesting point; oldschool print media like NYT, WSJ and WP are tiptoeing around the debate washup, not announcing a clear winner (least initially), trying to appear ‘balanced’. Whereas online media like Politico have made it very clear who won in article after article.

    Will it shift the needle? It certainly should if those polling as independents and uncertains are actually what they say they are.

  11. @Princeplanet, Trump is doing so well in the polling because of one of the biggest historical gaps in gender support. Young men in particular are backing Trump.

    I recall a piece several years ago that looked at young men in Spain, and their discontent with the system as it was. There was nearly 25% unemployment rate in the 18-25 band of young men. In that piece it was suggested that historically once you get a significant section of dissatisfied young men in any nation then civil unrest and social disorder will follow like day follows night, and if left unchecked can be a significant threat to democracy.

  14. It is a new low for Sheridan when Fox presenters can tell a truth that Sheridan can’t drag himself to say.

    The Oz trying to keep up with the SkyNewses. Bottomless barrel.

  15. T**** was exposed yesterday, but unless T**** himself keeps the debate in the forefront of people’s minds that memory will fade. Giving me hope is an unusual moment in the debate when Harris encouraged people to attend her opponent’s rallies. Has a candidate in a Presidential campaign ever done that before? It underlines the weirdness of the moment and the man. Go see this man. He’s incoherent, boring, tired, yesterday’s man, nothing left, etc.

    But memories do fade. There’s still a long way to go. (We should have some post debate polls soon.)

    EDIT: spelling

  18. MI: how motivated do you think these young guys will be? I know many of the guys young fellows look up to are right wing – Joe Rogan,Russell Brand, Jordan Peterson.I also know that when I was young a sleep in was more appealing than lining up to vote. I would posit that young women are considerably more motivated .

  20. Just on the young men supporting Trump thing, I have asked my gen-something kids ‘is this a real thing’?

    Some of them do frequent these sites, and they are where graduates of the gaming scene congregate. One for example, is the ‘pick up artists’ like Andrew Tate, whilst others are the daddy figure philosophers like Jordan Peterson. Then there is the bro MMA sport crew like Joe Rogan. And then there is 4Chan where the conspiracy theorists congregate.

    So what goes down on these sites? Firstly, the cohort is 90% + male. Secondly, Trump cult is a thing, with memes abounding – AI generated and something about green frogs. Thirdly, commitment is at best fluid, with changing allegiances and influencers coming and going.

    Finally, and this touches on the key question of ‘will these people actually turn out and vote’, is that paranoia abounds. One recurring, almost daily thing, is for bouts of doxing and outing. Bots being called out, foreign influencers and especially law enforcement masquerading as average users allegations. There is little trust amongst this cohort.

    The last point is that, allegedly, it is not only the Russians paying influencers. The Democrats, my kid tells me, are rounding up influencers and paying them $5-20k per week to promote Democrat friendly messaging and memes. Quite volumetric apparently.

  21. Princeplanet and sprocket_

    The level of toxicity in PC/Consul gaming is beyond belief. Discord being a large hangout for this cohort. I started PC gaming in the early 90s (actually 80s but nor sure it really counts without the internet), and absolutely dipped my toes into online gaming.

    It’s just silly, 12 yo level bullshit really, and I dont inhabit that ecosystem these days. I’d be careful of the amplification effect of the internet in terms of blowing this stuff up. The Andrew Tate stuff makes great newsprint copy but the percent of young men even capable of implementing his creed is probably quite small, and probably would have been toxic males anyway.

    In terms of actual voter outcomes, as far as I can tell the ‘likely voter’ metric is a key part of any US polling. So when I see numbers that indicate Trump and Harris are neck in neck, which comes off that gendered switch in support, I expect that the numbers will translate into real votes, even if they are young men who prefer to game all night and sleep all day.

  22. something about green frogs

    The frog telegraphs at least a casual level of racism. Of course everyone will say it doesn’t do exactly that. That’s how you know it does.

  23. Harris has to do far better to ensure a win. Very poor campaign to date. Should be miles ahead but struggling to get a lead. Almost zero media appearances by here – One interview and one debate? Are they hiding here from questions and interviews?? Why??

  24. Let’s not get carried away with the idea that young men are strongly supporting Trump. The polling data I’ve seen suggests 60+ per cent support for Harris among males aged 18-29. It’s just that this isn’t quite as high a level of support among that demographic as has been the case for some Democrat candidates in past elections.

    Likewise, Latino support for Harris is close to 60 per cent. But it has been higher than this for some Dem candidates in the past.

  26. 2 months ago Harris was not a candidate. Now she’s running and is in front. Trump has a truly vast propaganda outfit that’s been helping him out non-stop for 10 years…and even so is unable to make up further ground among the disaffected, disengaged and otherwise politically alienated 1/3 possible voters. Harris is in front in the places where she needs to win…not by a lot…but nevertheless she’s in front. The cohorts of rare voters are enlisting for Harris. They’re donating. Voters are promising their time to campaign person-to-person. So if Harris wins it will be a triumph of popular hope and commitment over the lies of the fascists, the plutocrats, the Reactionaries…..a victory over the FUBARS of the world, who hate everything Harris embodies. It will indeed be a triumph of hope over hate.

  30. The Instagram post by Taylor swift is up to 9.8 million likes (in 21 hrs). According to Swift’s twitter account 306,000 have used the link to voter registration so far.

  31. Stooge says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 10:33 am

    Now she’s running and is in front.

    Is she? There’s plenty of polling that doesn’t indicate that.

    a victory over the FUBARS of the world, who hate everything Harris embodies.

    You’re wrong there, but that doesn’t surprise me – you guys don’t do analysis very well.

  32. Socrates says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 11:24 am

    The Instagram post by Taylor swift is up to 9.8 million likes (in 21 hrs). According to Swift’s twitter account 306,000 have used the link to voter registration so far.

    Are PBers now Swifties?

    I told you guys she was positive, but there was so much shade thrown at her.

  33. Victoria says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 10:38 am

    … like Billary was going to defeat Trump the first time?

    Your certainty is not backed up by evidence.

  34. “Are PBers now Swifties? ”

    No. I looked it up. I have no interest in her music and don’t follow her.
    But a lot of Swifties are now becoming Democrat voters.

  35. Those suggesting that Harris has the election run are jumping the gun more than a little bit. The YouGov estimates that Confessions posted at the start of this thread look about right to me: Harris comfortably in the lead in the overall vote, but certainly not there in terms of the electoral college.

    In the swing states, it shows her with a potentially decisive lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and (but I’m a little sceptical (Nevada). But, by my reckoning that’s not enough to get to 270 electoral college votes. She simply has to win Pennsylvania as well and, according to YouGov, she’s ahead there by only 1 precentage point, which – taking the MoE into account- is effectively 50/50.

    And even then, if the figures for Nevada are wrong and she only ends up winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania out of the entire list of swing states that are seriously in play (ie: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada) then it will all come down to Omaha’s second congressional district and, if that goes to Trump, we are looking at 269-269 which means a Trump presidency because the decision will go to the House, where the Republicans have a very slender majority. (Somebody please correct me if I’ve gotten any of this wrong.)

    So it’s hardly the occasion to crack open a bottle of Asti Spumante, let alone the Pol Roger.

  37. Meher Baba

    I agree the election is far from won for Harris. I think the debate will improve the odds in her favour. But nobody who remembers Trump winning in 2016 when he was projected to have a 25% chance 2 weeks out (before Steven Comey’s infamous intervention) would take anything for granted at this stage.

    That being said, I agree that the only strong chances of victory among swing states for Dems so far are Minnesota (sewn up), Michigan and Wisconsin (good leads). Nebraska 2 is likely. Nevada is also likely on recent and current polls.

    That leaves Harris needing to win any one of the following toss ups: Pennsylvania (slight Harris lead), Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina (slight Trump lead). None of those four are certain but collectively the odds of winning at least one of four close contests appear high. I think Texas and Florida are no chance. So yes, its close.

  43. LOL

    On X, eugenics fan and world’s richest man Elon Musk admitted Trump had had a bad night and that Harris had “exceeded most people’s expectations”. This was grudging but had the advantage over the reaction of other Trump supporters of actually acknowledging reality. He followed up with: “We will never reach Mars if Kamala Harris wins” – a fact that, assuming Musk himself plans to undertake the journey, would be one drawback to a Harris win indeed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/11/kamala-harris-donald-trump-rightwing-media-fox-news-debate

  44. I think Harris will win
    Arizona largely because the GOP there are nuts.
    North Carolina is going better for Harris because of a probable governor election.win by the dems.
    This will run close but
    Harris to win only needs to do a little bit better than Clinton did in 2016

  45. I am so afraid of a drumpf win that I know I am into confirmation bias in my choice of information. My anxiety levels, politically, are rising as the election becomes closer.

    In Australia a drumpf win will embolden the right wing fascists in our own polity.

    My main emotion in the case of a Harris
    win will be total relief.

  46. meher baba says Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 11:43 am

    And even then, if the figures for Nevada are wrong and she only ends up winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania out of the entire list of swing states that are seriously in play (ie: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada) then it will all come down to Omaha’s second congressional district and, if that goes to Trump, we are looking at 269-269 which means a Trump presidency because the decision will go to the House, where the Republicans have a very slender majority. (Somebody please correct me if I’ve gotten any of this wrong.)

    I believe if it goes to the House, it’s one vote per state, not one vote per rep. That would be an easy win for the Republicans.

  48. He followed up with: “We will never reach Mars if Kamala Harris wins”

    Takes a special kind of migrant douchebag to get behind the douchebag who’s basing his campaign mainly around bashing migrants.

  49. The Harris camp asking for another debate is an interesting move. It will certainly end any further talk about Harris running away from scrutiny, which is good. But I think the best outcome for the Dems would be for the Trump camp to refuse. That would paint Trump as the one who is running away and eliminate any chance that a second debate might not play out quite as good for Harris.

    If Trump does end up demanding a second one I think Harris should insist that it will only be under exactly the same conditions and rules as the first one, which suited her but not him. She is in a position to do that now.

  50. It is the next Congress that votes if it is a tie. Dems currently behind in that thanks in part to some dodgy state anti democratic ventures.
    https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/state-by-state/consensus-2024-house-forecast

    But I suspect that a tie would result in some faithless electors making it interesting before it gets to that.

    It is astounding that so much of the federal election outcome depends on state rules and laws. Or, to put it another way, how insane is it that federal laws and rules are not used to enforce fair elections of federal office.

    Oh, and it isn’t impossible for Trump to get elected in a EC tie and Walz to get elected VP (although the Dems would need to pull off a couple of surprise senate wins.

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