A huge week for state opinion polling continues with Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read on state voting intention in Victoria, combining survey results from its last two monthly national polls. As reported in The Age, this records no change for either major party since the June-July result, with Labor on 27%, the Coalition on 37% and the Greens down a point to 14%, suggesting a roughly even split on two-party preferred. There is also next to no change on preferred premier, with Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto in from 31-28 to 30-29.
The poll also finds 43% support for the Suburban Rail Loop project with 27% opposed. However, 53% favoured the airport-to-city rail link project when it was put to them that “some people have been argued” the money should be used for that instead, with only 16% preferring the Suburban Rail Loop and 19% saying it should be spent on neither. The sample for the poll was 1054.
Also of note from Victoria is the Greens’ choice of a new member of the Legislative Council for Northern Metropolitan region, following party leader Samantha Ratnam’s departure to contest the federal seat of Wills. A party ballot was won last week by Anasina Gray-Barberio, Samoan-born founder of Engage Pasefika, an organisation “committed to advancing Pacific Island Health equity”. Gray-Barberio was chosen from a field of eight that also included Yarra mayor Edward Crossland and former Merri-bek mayor Angelica Panopoulos.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I honestly think Allan might be done unless she can articulate a reason for being in government beyond budget cuts and abandoning any of Andrews’ remaining agenda. Moira Deeming is about the one thing she’s still got going for her.
I think that polling captures some of the difficulty Labor’s in with the SRL: while plenty of people support it in principle, there’s at lot less support for it at any cost, particularly given the savage Budget we just had and Allan having to walk back plans to take an axe to health services.
Gray-Barberio seems a bit of a left-field choice by the Greens given several higher-profile candidates in the race (such as Panopolous, who was responsible for a near-boilover in Pascoe Vale at the last election).
The undemocratic nature of the electoral system is designed to boost the Labor / Coalition duopoly. If Labor won 27% and the Greens 14% at an election the Greens would only win a handful of seats whereas Labor would win dozens. The seats won would not reflect the will of the electorate. The electoral system is wholly designed to benefit the duopoly.
S. Simpson says:
Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 8:39 am
Do you expect a Government that reflects every party that was voted for?
Preferential Voting is by far the best form of electoral system going around. It reflects the will of the voters by taking into account there full range of preferences.
That’s some pretty brazen push-polling… The SRL and the Airport rail link aren’t mutually exclusive and we shouldn’t pretend it’s one or the other.
For starters, the Airport link would have been underway years ago, but not for the Airport itself standing in the way (until the moderators forced their hand). Also though, they aren’t being funded from the same pot – the Airport Rail will be coming from a much larger chunk of federal funds.
That aside, note that this poll has a 22% “others” vote. This obviously won’t happen at the 2026 state election – but it reflects that while a lot of people aren’t enthused by Jacinta Allan, they aren’t rushing to park their vote with the Libs.
Anyways, there’s over 2 years before the next state election, a lot can happen in that time, and digging for the SRL will be well underway.
The ALP would be returned on this vote. Two years out from the election they would take that.
Victorian ALP supporter here,
This poll and most current state level polling indicates a likely narrow defeat for the Labor government. Hopefully things start picking up in 2025 with the completion of the Metro Tunnel. If we lose 2026, I think it is more likely to be a 2010-style result rather than a 1992-style result. That is good news for federal MPs/candidates such as Mary Doyle, Rob Mitchell, Julian Hill, Carina Garland and whoever the Labor candidates in Casey and Deakin end up being.
Stock up with popcorn:
“A high-stakes defamation battle between Victoria’s opposition leader, John Pesutto, and ex-Liberal MP Moira Deeming begins in the federal court on Monday.
“Several senior Liberal MPs will undergo public cross-examination in a trial that threatens to expose disunity within the party.”
***
“The party’s deputy leader, David Southwick, and the leader of the opposition in the upper house, Georgie Crozier, are among those expected to give evidnce.
“The federal court last month ordered that the former Victorian Liberal MP Matt Bach must travel from his home in the UK to give evidence.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/15/moira-deeming-v-john-pesutto-defamation-battle-how-did-we-get-here-ntwnfb