Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Labor loses its very slight advantage in Essential Research but keeps it in Roy Morgan.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has both parties up on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 35% and Labor by one to 30%, with the Greens steady on 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and undecided down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor and the Coalition tied on 48%, with the balance undecided. Further results show a 69-31 split in favour of the government’s cap on international students, together with various other findings on the theme of education. Fifty-three per cent expressed support for the Future Made in Australia policy, following a question that said it would “provide funding for large-scale renewable energy projects that support the creation of local jobs”, with 18% opposed. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1132.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, out from 50.5-49.5 last time, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down half), Coalition 36.5% (up half), Greens 14.5% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (steady). Going off preference flows from the previous election rather than as allocated by poll respondents, Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1703.

Also, further results from the Resolve Strategic poll indicate remarkable pessimism on interest rates, which 40% expect to go up over the next year compared with only 15% for down and 34% for stay the same. Fifty-one per cent rated that the federal government and the Treasurer had “the greater responsibility for keeping inflation down” compared with 27% for the Reserve Bank and 22% for both equally. A question on gambling advertising found 51% support for banning gambling advertisements on television entirely, with 32% supporting the government’s policy of a cap on two ads per hour during live sports and none during children’s programming.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

286 comments on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 6 of 6
1 5 6
  1. Just because I got so sick of hearing shit about ‘shit’:

    ‘Melbourne Activist Legal Support sent 16 “legal observers” to watch the protest, and… “We saw police escalate very rapidly towards a really high level and very inappropriate riot-type responses towards what was essentially lawful assemblies, peaceful assemblies…Police escalated to the point where they were using force including OC spray, and horses indiscriminately.”

    Police also used rubber bullets, which have not been used against protestors since the anti-lockdown protest in 2021. At least one journalist, Wayne Flower from the Daily Mail, was hit by a rubber bullet. Guardian Australia understands a photographer was also hit in the ear and had to have surgery.

    Anthony Kelly from Melbourne Activist Legal Support alleged police were documented using force against people who were trying to run away, shielding themselves or were already on the ground.

    “The medic team reported to us that they treated somewhere between 50 to 100 people,” Kelly said.

    In a statement, MALS said:

    “Legal observers noted that in most circumstances, protestor behaviour became heightened after and in response to a coercive crowd control manoeuvre by the police or the use of police weapons,” the release said… force”.

    Kelly said unlawful behaviour by individual protesters “doesn’t provide police with a lawful justification to use indiscriminate levels of force”.

    “The other thing … is that police manoeuvres themselves, their forceful pushes into crowds, and their deployment of horses and weapons in particular, creates an enormous escalating effect.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/12/melbourne-war-protests-land-forces-weapons-expo-ntwnfb

  2. Eddy, are you saying that Victorian cops escalated an event with violence and then blamed the protestors?

    Noooo, that doesnt sound like them at all…

    Now, a queer guy in his apartment next to a bookshop…

  3. Noting how the Greens seem triggered by suggestions that the protests were not quite completely peaceful until the police provoked them into assaulting the police:

    How many Greens members, supporters, Earthians, activists, staff and MPs were involved in the riotous affray. Did they observe illegal criminal behaviour by protestors? Have they reported this criminal behaviour by the protestors?

    Did any Greens present throw objects at the police?

    Has the Greens Party distanced itself from the behaviour of those who have been charged with various offences?

  4. Boerwar

    Today things were much better. Only 150 protestors and none of the violence displayed yesterday.

    The protestors yesterday actually pulled down some security fencing and that’s when the police had to move in.

  5. ‘Victoria says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 8:56 pm

    Boerwar

    Today things were much better. Only 150 protestors and none of the violence displayed yesterday.

    The protestors yesterday actually pulled down some security fencing and that’s when the police had to move in.’
    —————–
    A dog act to throw feces at fellow human beings.

  6. Nadia

    I think I feel a bit dirty after reading that Cameron Millner piece……!

    It had an air of wishcasting and adding 2 and 2 and making 10

    I don’t think the teals are in much danger of losing personally, possibly with the exception of Kate Chaney in Curtin due to some weird local factors and odd things she’s said about WA police. National polling can’t really account for a phenomenon like community independents, and an MRP even less so. Dutton hasn’t really even tried to address the coalition’s ‘woman’ problem or make any real effort to regain their blue ribbon heartland, but not have I seen any evidence that he’s resonating in outer urban areas

    On top of that there’s a very good chance of Bradfield, Cowper and wannon going teal making the likelihood of the coalition regaining government even less likely

    My guess is the ALP might lose a few mortgage belt seats to the coalition, but those would be offset by coalition losses to independents making an alp minority more likely.

    Some of what Cameron Millner said otherwise is certainly true around living standards and the like, the issues and ‘direction’ polling certainly bears that out, but my sense is that while there is a lot of disappointment with the government and Albo isn’t liked, he’s not yet hated like scomo was and it’s more a general government sucks vibe rather than a THIS government sucks vibe

  7. The Greens have been hitting it out of the park lately.
    Siding with the CFMEU crooks and the feral protestors yesterday.
    They are embarrassing

  8. It should be noted that there was an expectation that up to 25000 protestors would show up to the Expo.
    Yesterday was a few thousand and today 150.

  9. Given how popular Max Chandler-Mather is with certain people here, I figured you would be heart broken to hear that a community kitchen he runs outside of his office weekly will be stopped, as the landlord has demanded it stop. So Max will look for a new office and recommence when he can.

    The dick

    Oh and its just been brought to my attention (sorry if I missed it yesterday) that Albo is hoping to score himself a nice little boost from selling his Dulwich Hill rental (the one that had the beatup earlier) for a nice sum of 1.9 million. Note he bought the place for 1.175 million back in 2015, so a nice little profit of 700k plus in just 9 years on top of his rentals on top of his parliamentary gig.

    Nice gig if you can get it.

  10. I was in Melbourne today with family and saw the protest site for myself as we were going over the Flinders St Viaduct on the train. All police, no returning protesters.

    There was something of a disruption at around 10:30am that caused us a bit of a delay from Southern Cross, but on the whole it had the air of them being determined not to let what happened yesterday happen again today.

  11. Former President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said ABC News should fire its entire staff after he turned in a stumbling performance at Tuesday night’s presidential debate on the network. Trump made the assertion in a post on his social network, Truth Social, in which—just as he did during the debate—he got a bunch of things wrong.
    “People are just starting to give me credit for having a GREAT DEBATE,” he wrote. “The Voters and Voter Polls showed it, but the Fake News Media wasn’t giving the credit that was due.”

  12. Really Lorbain? What is your problem with Albo having done well for himself financially. That’s a cheap shot attempt at tarnishing his character. I thought that kind of crap would be expected from people like PP, Fubar and Badthinker. Maybe I misread you as a strong advocate but not a bottom dweller. Maybe I was wrong .

  13. EF, I merely note that the political class has a strong self interest in the housing rules remaining as they are.

    I also merely point out the contrast of the supposed worse person ever MCM, compared to the supposed fighter of torys Albo, especially since Albo himself has said pretty trash things about MCM related to housing policy, claiming that the Labor member would be better for the locals, and that MCM is merely a seat filler.

    If stating mere facts is “tarnishing” the character of albo, then I ask how?

  14. Bought for $1.175m in 2015, selling for $1.9m, is it a win or a poor investment?
    Perhaps Albo himself is doing it tough and going backwards?

  15. Albos housing issue is trashing the Australian poor via importing stupid amounts of people into Australia -students 810,000 etc etc .

    Driving inflation up and caused rents to rocket and homelessness to increase.

    Oh also housing starts gone backwards under labor.Abs stats.

  16. Making a handsome profit on your own property investment in the middle of a housing crisis when not only has little been done to address it but you have presided over the largest level of net migration in a term of parliament raises legitimate questions over whether self interest rather than the greater good is having undue influence on the Government’s decision making.

    Albo seems like a guy who has completely forgotten his roots now he is profiting from the status quo.

  17. So one bloke at the nightly forecasts a Labor wipe out with his shiny crystal ball and we all should take that as Badthinker type gospel and go home. It’s all over. Thank God that’s sorted. FMD. I’m sure there are no Greens or Coalition MPs profiting from the current housing market nor any of Albos critics. F..k off you bloody hypocrites.

  18. Griff says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 10:31 pm

    Greens getting green at the Member for Grayndler getting some green
    __________________
    This is another own goal. A PM turning a tidy profit on an investment property in the middle of a housing crisis when he’s under pressure about COL etc.

    I say as someone well disposed towards Albo, WTF.

    Terrible decision, awful optics, bad politics.

  19. dave says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 10:55 pm
    Griff says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 10:31 pm

    Greens getting green at the Member for Grayndler getting some green
    __________________
    This is another own goal. A PM turning a tidy profit on an investment property in the middle of a housing crisis when he’s under pressure about COL etc.

    I say as someone well disposed towards Albo, WTF.

    Terrible decision, awful optics, bad politics.

    _________

    I agree at the optics, Nath. Easy for the Greens to make hay. Although I’m not sure how well disposed you are towards Albo 😉

  20. I agree at the optics, Nath. Easy for the Greens to make hay. Although I’m not sure how well disposed you are towards Albo
    ___________
    Well you are wrong. I’ve been a supporter of Albo for many years. I thought he would be a very good PM, and I am pleased with some of the things the government has done. It’s certainly better than the previous government, but that’s not saying much is it?

    I’m starting to think I might have made a mistake. Time will tell.

  21. >What is your problem with Albo having done well for himself financially.

    >I’m sure there are no Greens or Coalition MPs profiting from the current housing market nor any of Albos critics

    I seem to recall many people on poll bludger attacking the Greens for doing well with properties.

    Are they going to change their mind and say they were wrong to attack the Greens for doing so. Or is now ok for them as well?

  22. Catprog says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 11:24 pm
    >What is your problem with Albo having done well for himself financially.

    >I’m sure there are no Greens or Coalition MPs profiting from the current housing market nor any of Albos critics

    I seem to recall many people on poll bludger attacking the Greens for doing well with properties.

    Are they going to change their mind and say they were wrong to attack the Greens for doing so. Or is now ok for them as well?

    _________

    Good point. It certainly blunts the attack on Faruqi regarding her real estate interests. The development proposal for tree removal in koala country still remains.

  23. dave says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 11:24 pm
    I agree at the optics, Nath. Easy for the Greens to make hay. Although I’m not sure how well disposed you are towards Albo
    ___________
    Well you are wrong. I’ve been a supporter of Albo for many years. I thought he would be a very good PM, and I am pleased with some of the things the government has done. It’s certainly better than the previous government, but that’s not saying much is it?

    I’m starting to think I might have made a mistake. Time will tell.

    ____________

    No, you are not saying much, are you? 🙂

  24. Griff says:

    No, you are not saying much, are you?
    ______________
    That’s ok. You’ve just reminded me you are incapable of having a conversation with.

  25. Fear and Loathing in Springfield, Ohio
    —Andrew Egger

    ‘At first, it seemed like this week’s “MAGA accuses Haitian migrants of pet murder in Springfield, Ohio” story would be just a bizarro news blip.

    Then Donald Trump embraced the invented narrative on live TV to an audience of tens of millions during the debate: “They’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats . . . The people on television say, my dog was taken and used for food.” And the rest of the Republican spin brigade trudged wearily after him.

    “I’ve heard conflicting reports,” Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty said on CNN last night. “There’s a lot of information on the internet that this is happening.”

    Meanwhile, a horde of YouTubers and right-wing influencers have descended on Springfield, all hoping to find smoking-gun evidence of pet-cheffery in order to give proof to the lie they’ve helped launch. What they’ve found is locals echoing back their own rumors to them: “Then I heard that stuff on Facebook,” one Springfield woman told Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA, “and I thought, I better watch my dogs!”

    This point bears repeating. What do many residents of Springfield itself have in common with Bill Hagerty, a random shill from two states away? They’re all just repeating nonsense they saw on the internet. Not a single person who has lost a pet of their own has come forward with their story. But plenty of Springfield natives are now convinced that Haitian immigrants one subdivision over are snatching dogs and cats by the truckload.

    Has there ever been a better microcosm of our Trumpified politics? A small town, strained by a wave of new migrants, thrust into the national spotlight by opportunistic politicians and conservative hucksters, churned through a balkanized media ecosystem that lets false rumors spread like weeds. Trump says he wants to protect these communities. He ends up dividing them, inflaming tensions within them, all while using them as political pawns.’

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/how-trumpism-rots-a-small-city

    I could say the same for Peter Dutton.

Comments Page 6 of 6
1 5 6

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *