US presidential election minus eight weeks

After a fortnight in which the balance of the polls tipped back towards Donald Trump, indications of a clear win to Kamala Harris in yesterday’s debate.

The most robust item on reaction to yesterday’s presidential candidates’ debate, at least so far as I’m aware, is a CNN poll “conducted by text message with 605 registered US voters who said they watched the debate”, which recorded a 63-37 win for Kamala Harris from a sample that going in had a 50-50 split on who they expected to win. This doesn’t quite match the 67-33 result in favour of Trump after the June 27 debate that marked the beginning of the end for Joe Biden, but it isn’t far off, and both seem about as close to decisive as can be expected by the polarised standards of American politics.

It was a win that Harris badly needed, if recent polls and forecast results are any guide. The latter have recorded what looks to my untrained eye like a dividend for Donald Trump from Robert F. Kennedy’s withdrawal, sufficient to reduce the modest lead Harris opened up in The Economist’s model to effectively nothing. Still more striking has been the recent form of Nate Silver’s model, which won the approval of Trump himself by swinging to a 64.4% probability in his favour as of Monday, though it’s since eased to 61.3%. The divergence between the two models, which were hitherto finely matched, appears to be largely down to Silver’s model correcting for an anticipated Harris convention bounce, of which the polls have offered no sign.

Adrian Beaumont has an update on the polling situation in The Conversation, dating from Monday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “US presidential election minus eight weeks”

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  8. sprocket_ @ #757 Wednesday, September 18th, 2024 – 8:29 pm

    I’ve clearly not been paying attention to Antony Green’s excellent piece yesterday

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-17/could-there-be-double-dissolution-election-/104360258

    One quibble, for a trigger – the Bill does not have to be voted down, nor in fact voted on at all. Like today’s effort which voted to delay consideration till November 26.

    The conditions stipulated by section 57 of the Constitution are:

    The trigger bill originated in the House of Representatives.

    Three months elapsed between the two rejections of the bill by the Senate (“rejection” in this context can extend to the Senate’s failure to pass the bill, or to the Senate passing it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree).

    The second rejection occurred in the same session as the first, or the subsequent session, but no later.

    Wrong thread.

  9. Team Katich, Late Riser, WT Taylor
    and others like BTsays

    Would you believe that there were more than 30 bomb threats in various places of Springfield, Ohio, till now(including schools, hospitals) and state troopers are currently stationed by Ohio Republican Governor Dewine after Trump and Vance spread “Haitians stealing and eating Cats and dogs lie in Springfield, Ohio?

    After all this, Trump has 50% chance of winning November election as per Silver modelling. What does it say about American politics and American people?

  11. Kamala can win if:
    1. The Democratic governors of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin are on the ball.
    2. The Democratic ground game really is superior.
    3. Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday on 1 October gives the Dems a lift in Georgia

  14. Tom Watson
    @tomwatson
    By 52-37 count, Pennsylvanians think Harris is going to win. Only 10 percent undecided. That’s interesting because it reflects the sense the campaign on the ground, not merely preference.

  15. Tom Nichols/The Atlantic:

    “Trump Is No Gerald Ford

    No other president has used an assassination attempt to inflame American politics the way Donald Trump does.

    If only Trump and his homunculus, J. D. Vance, cared as much about the safety of others as so many others care about theirs.

    My colleague David A. Graham has already noted the misery that Vance is bringing down on his own constituents in Ohio, using hatred against immigrants to set neighbors against one another, a conflict that has led to the closure of schools and the lockdown of two hospitals. Vance is a product of such a working-class town, but in reality he is an utterly synthetic politician, a power-seeking drone who will do almost anything to further his political fortunes. In this case, he is casting the innocent people of Springfield, Ohio, in his own obscene little drama about migrant savages roaming the streets of the heartland trying to sink their teeth into Fluffy and Fido. Sure, it’s a pack of lies—Vance admitted on CNN that he and Trump are “creating stories”—but it’s all for the greater good, you see, of advancing the career of the Hillbilly Senator.”

  17. C@tmomma @ #763 Wednesday, September 18th, 2024 – 10:09 pm

    The Toorak Toff @ #761 Wednesday, September 18th, 2024 – 9:23 pm

    Kamala can win if:
    1. The Democratic governors of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin are on the ball.
    2. The Democratic ground game really is superior.
    3. Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday on 1 October gives the Dems a lift in Georgia

    4. There’s an interest rate cut tomorrow.

    People are watching. FWIW, I’ve noticed the USD has been falling steadily all week against the AUD. But while it’s down against other currencies this week, it’s had some ups along the way. So, perhaps the AUD is getting stronger too.

  20. Breaking news:

    The FED cuts rates by 0.50%.

    Great news for Harris, not so good for Trump.

    Could this decision be enough to give Harris the presidency?

  21. Just catching the previous page,

    Late Riser and, r a, um, NO.

    The total probability of winning the election is 100%.

    The chances of winning the popular vote are Kamala 67% and Donald 33%. Two to One.

    The chances of Kamala winning the electoral vote decrease by 25%, therefore the chances of Donald winning the electoral vote MUST increase by 50%. Two to One.

    Example:

    Centre and a r play a game of chess. Chances of winning are Centre 80% and a r 20%. Four to One.

    Centre loses a Bishop, say worth 20%, Centre’s chances are now 64%. The chances of a r winning have increased by 80% (four to one) to 36%.

    Centre goes on to win the game 😀

  22. Catmomma

    Good old days? 1971 last Rabbits/Dragons grand final, 53 “lightyears” ago.

    Bunnies, happy Joe (Wayne Bennett) the coach, should go good…

  23. FWIW:

    “A new poll released by Quinnipiac University shows Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in two key battleground states and just slightly ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, another battleground state.

    “In Pennsylvania, the poll states that 51% of likely voters said they supported Harris, compared with 45% for Trump, a six-point difference.

    “In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by five points in this poll, and in Wisconsin Harris leads Trump by just one percentage point.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/sep/18/donald-trump-kamala-harris-us-election-politics-latest-news-updates

  24. #17 rated pollster on 538’s listing…


    PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%
    MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%
    WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%

    One week after the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President
    Donald Trump, the 2024 presidential race in three critical battleground states shows Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania, holding a slight lead in Michigan, and the two candidates essentially tied in Wisconsin, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.

    https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/mi/mi09182024_swmf64.pdf

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