Time for a new thread, but with not much to report – so the weekly Roy Morgan poll gets a rare guernsey. This week the pollster has Labor ahead 51.5-48.5 on both its respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures, respectively comparing with 50.5-49.5 and 51-49 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (down one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1655.
Two items of preselection news:
• The Nationals have preselected Gunnedah mayor Jamie Chaffey to succeed Mark Coulton when he retires from his rural New South Wales seat of Parkes at the next election. Chaffey won a local party ballot on Saturday from a field of three.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports five nominees for Liberal National Party preselection for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of veteran member Warren Entsch: Alana McKenna, a “local aviation identity” who has Entsch’s endorsement; Sam Brayshaw, a geologist said to be supported by “far north Queensland conservative establishment figures Deirdre and Colin Ford”; local branch secretary Darcy Sanders; Jeremy Neal, a former Cairns councillor; and Margaret Milutinovic, who promotes herself as a “financial goddess”.
nadia88
I guess we will only know at that real test of the polls: the next Federal election.
But I think you may be onto something here. Perhaps when people are frightened, they will reach for what they know.
As Obama said, “…. caught in an uncharacteristic moment of loose language. Referring to working-class voters in old industrial towns decimated by job losses, the presidential hopeful said: “They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
On the other hand, in the past, fearful people in Australia have reached for the conservative side of politics, and I note the Coalition are still significantly ahead of Labor on primary vote: ALP 29/ Coalition 37.
Yes Kirsdarke, I think 1988 was a good year, not that either of us remember much about it.
Bob was the big Boss, there was an expo in Brisbane where Joh was the Boss, we had the bicentenary in Sydney with lots of boats & Ayers Rock was renamed Uluru.
I can’t think of much more which probably happenned during 1988.
Probably best we wait for the senior posters to recoil what they remember of 1988.
@Nadia
Yeah, 1988 was a big year. Of course I was a baby, but my elder family sure were excited about it. They took me to the World Expo in Brisbane, then to the opening of the New Parliament, but yeah, being only a few months old at the time, can’t exactly recall it. But I was there, and that’s the main thing, hehe.
The 14% other mentioned earlier in the Resolve summation is made up of what exactly ?
Do we get an explanation ?
goll @ #1453 Sunday, August 11th, 2024 – 7:59 pm
10% Independent, 4% other.
Douglas and Milko:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:33 pm
[‘Also, Mavis, I answered you on the US thread. I finally worked out where everyone else had gone!’]
Thanks. I saw it and left a short reply. I’m too getting a bit confused with a binary choice.
Leroy,
WB (and Steve) use a fairly strict breakdown of how the 2PP is calculated, I assume based on the last election distributions.
Something along the lines of this;
ALP gets 85.7% of Greens primaries
ALP gets 35.7% of PHON primaries
ALP gets 38% of UAP (Clive) primaries, &
ALP gets 54.7% of the balance (ie:Indies/Undecideds)
Obviously the LNP get the balance of everything remaining.
I’m not too sure what calculation KB uses.
Both KB and WB’s poll tracker tickers are fairly close, although WB’s is more brutal.
I just monitor the trend.
I suppose, if the ALP keeps pulling sub 30% primaries, we could expect WB’s ticker to keep tracking down toward 50-50. At the moment it sits at 50.4% ALP, but things are getting tight. The last Newspoll had the ALP primary at 33%. If this falls back tonight, then I would suggest WB’s ticker will drop from 50.4 to perhaps 50.3% or 50.2%. Likewise KB’s ticker will also drop.
gollsays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:59 pm
The 14% other mentioned earlier in the Resolve summation is made up of what exactly ?
Do we get an explanation ?
==================
Goll, I can’t find the sample or even poll period. SMH hides it away.
I think it will be last Weds to Sat, but not sure.
The 14% will be made up of undecideds and Indies. Undecideds are tricky to assess, but WB will work out how they vote. We’ll probably have a new thread in a couple of hours where WB will sort all this for us.
The other 14% would comprise Teals, local independents, Animal Justice, religious parties, socialists / communists, anti vaxers, other assorted ratbags, groups no one has ever heard of or thought were extinct, anyone and everyone, right, left and centre. I have been assuming that “other” preferences split about 50-50.
My assumptions regarding preferences (Labor share) to do a quick calculation of 2PP:
– Greens: 5/6
– PHON / Palmer: 3/8
– Independent 1/2
– Other: 1/2
Round result to nearest whole percentage.
The calculations I use for preference flows are here:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/07/2022-house-of-reps-figures-finalised.html
I treat IND as IND, so where a pollster releases a standalone IND figure (which is generally inflated at this point of the cycle) I use the IND preference flow. The other approach is lumping IND with whatever the pollster has as remaining Others, and using a common flow for both. Arguments can be made for either approach.
Just some other side things with the latest Resolve Poll.
Dutton still leads on the Preferred PM 36 – 35, & the hidden nasty,
..more people now think (for the first time) that the LNP will win the next election. 38-36.
You need to scroll down on the link below, to see this.
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Kevin Bonham says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 8:21 pm
The other approach is lumping IND with whatever the pollster has as remaining Others, and using a common flow for both.
Wouldn’t lumping Teals into other underestimate their true impact & inflate the LNP result.. after all the sitting Teals votes are concentrated in the seats they hold
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:32 pm
Completely agree. We need an FDR-type New Deal, which will set the country on the path to greater equality, by a green and STEM revolution. Those of us who want this and can contribute to it are legion.
FDR won each election by the skin of his teeth , evolving from Dr New Deal, to Dr Win the War.
But, I worry that in Australia now, a big vision will be met by “where’s the detail”? “Will the cheesemakers be worse off?”
But, I think this throw of the dice is the only chance of avoiding PM Dutton.
But I also have a faint hope that a minority Labor government may eventuate, supported by
Teals and independents of good faith, who will deal fairly with legislation as it is put to the lower house.
Is this possible? Or will it be like Oakeshott and Windsor, who supported a Labor minority government, but realised that their conservative electorates would turf them at the next election.
I have no idea.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:46 pm
But I think you may be onto something here. Perhaps when people are frightened, they will reach for what they know.
===================================
Thanks D&M. Yes, usually the voters stick to what they know best when international events dominate the headlines. I would imagine the next Newspoll will reflect this, if there is a newspoll tonight. There should be one in about 45 mins, but who knows for sure.
I watch the trends and the best thing we’ve got is WB and KB’s ticker. Boer constantly references it, and it is the only thing we have to monitor trends.
Tonight: WB has bludgertrack on 50.4% ALP.
KB has his ticker at 50.5% ALP (just updated too). KB – you are all over this can I say!
We’ll have a couple more polls in the next few days, in fact quite a few, and we’ll see what their tickers look like on Friday evening. I’ll do an upcoming list in a sec.
Upcoming polls (quite a few actually):
* In about 40 minutes (hopefully) – Newspoll
* 5PM’ish Monday – Roy Morgan. Usually a good sample
* Tues dawn. – Essential Vision, via the Guardian.
* Fri 11am-ish – Should have a YouGov (if they are back on the 3 week cycle. Last poll was 7 weeks apart, but they said at the start of the year, they would do 3 weekly polling.) We’ll see. They’re due.
* Monday 18-Aug – Freshwater poll due, via the A.F.R.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 8:40 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:32 pm
“My honest assessment is that Albo needs to do something big, dramatic and good to turn this around. Something on the level of Hawke and Keating floating the Australian Dollar. Coasting along like he is now will probably result in him just stalling short of the finish line while the media pushes Dutton over it next year.”
Completely agree. We need an FDR-type New Deal, which will set the country on the path to greater equality, by a green and STEM revolution. Those of us who want this and can contribute to it are legion.
FDR won each election by the skin of his teeth , evolving from Dr New Deal, to Dr Win the War.
But, I worry that in Australia now, a big vision will be met by “where’s the detail”? “Will the cheesemakers be worse off?”
But, I think this throw of the dice is the only chance of avoiding PM Dutton.
But I also have a faint hope that a minority Labor government may eventuate, supported by
Teals and independents of good faith, who will deal fairly with legislation as it is put to the lower house.
Is this possible? Or will it be like Oakeshott and Windsor, who supported a Labor minority government, but realised that their conservative electorates would turf them at the next election.
I have no idea.
_________
I am not as worried about the Lower House. My concern is that The Greens would take a Labor minority government as a further sign of weakness and double down on the blockade in the Senate, as they would correctly have perceived that it whittles down public confidence in Labor. The overall result is a lack of progress and then the Coalition returns.
The problem with polls and teals is most teals come second so their preferences won’t count.
Consider the Teals as just Indies, but yes if they come 2nd on the primaries, their preferences won’t count.
Cheers Nadia!
Up in Cairns at the moment, not so sunny but still a nice place to be.
Funny thing up here the local IGA store lets political parties set up right at the main entry plugging their propaganda, just like an electoral booth.
Can’t dodge them.
Yesterday it was Warren Enstechs daughter promoting herself to step into Dads shoes and looking for donations.
Today it was the Greens, at least they had a sausage sizzle going.
Bloody good sausage sanger too!
So, yes, the Greens got a donation, the Libs not so much, just a few choice words!
Cheers Been There.
Gosh, you get around. Cairns is a great part of Oz and best to be there now than during the wet in 3 months time. Thanks for kind words a couple of weeks ago too. I’ll drop back off the site a bit, but will def drop around especially for an election or two.
Newspoll 50-50
A majority of voters expect a hung parliament at the next federal election, as Labor’s primary vote falls to 32 per cent amid the cost-of-living squeeze and the Coalition increases its primary vote lead to an equal post-election high.
The Coalition’s seven-point lead on first preferences is the widest gap between the two major parties since the fallout of the voice referendum loss, but not enough to put the Liberals and Nationals into an election-winning position.
This is the third time the two parties have been tied since May 2022 and strengthens the odds of a hung parliament should the result be repeated at a general election.
A majority of voters, 57 per cent, now believe a minority Labor or minority Coalition government is the most likely outcome.
More troubling for the Albanese government is that only 22 per cent of voters expect Labor will do well enough at the election to retain majority government.
The most likely outcome according to 33 per cent of respondents was a minority Labor government formed with minor parties or independents, with 24 per cent nominating a minority Coalition government. Only 21 per cent believe the Coalition would be in a position to form a majority government.
The latest Newspoll results show a one-point increase in the Coalition’s primary vote of 39 per cent and a one point fall in Labor’s support. Labor’s lowest primary vote since the election was 31 per cent in the wake of the voice referendum and Monday’s poll signals continued electoral dissatisfaction in the government’s performance.
The Greens primary vote fell a point to 12 per cent, with other minor parties and independents lifting a point to 11 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party stable at 6 per cent.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-minority-rule-feared-as-coalition-rises-and-labor-falls/news-story/896ff7aceeb35fc9f84dffbd6c19a9f7?amp
Bugger. No Newspoll!
Edit: Just turned up. Great work HH. I don’t have access. Any primaries pls
Federal Newspoll
TPP: ALP 50 (-1) L/NP 50 (+1)
Primaries: ALP 32 (-1) L/NP 39 (+1) GRN 12 (-1) ON 6 (0) Others 11 (+1)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-minority-rule-feared-as-coalition-rises-and-labor-falls/news-story/896ff7aceeb35fc9f84dffbd6c19a9f7
poll conducted August 5 – 9 with 1266 voters
My opinion, Teals would heavily preference Labor.
====================================
Conflicting definitions of “cookers”.
Meth cookin’ Appalachian hillbillies aren’t intersted in Electoral Politics, so that makes no sense.
Perhaps anyone disagreeing with the progressive narrative = hillbilly white trash?
My tentative theory is that it’s a Gaslighting of peeepos that use Pressure Cookers as an alternative way to cook food.
That fits the Narrative that any dissent from ordained ways of doing things is intolerable to social order, imo.
Obviously it never took off in the popular imagination.
Some labor supporters said the disabled didn’t matter but a 1% swing against when its hardly moved for months tells a different story.
Well so I’m probably gonna be expecting status quo for the next election unless labour or liberal do something stupid maybe at election 51 to 49 to labour what I think the liberals going to do is try and get as many seats back under Peter and then gets someone more respectable in next election
50/50! You’re kidding me.
Half the population looks at Dutton and say – yeh, give me some of what that guy is offering?
Fortunately half their seats are held by independents……
The ALP needs to start fighting before they let the LNP fall back over the line.
Who said that beemer?
Name one!
The LNP supporters will have a busy day on the site tomorrow. Gosh 39%
Getting very close to that 40% mark.
ALP primary remains anaemic – not a big drop, but not ideal.
New thread coming up!
Surprisingly bad NewsPoll for Labor, Parly hasn’t sat since the break, so no scandals or rabbit-in-the-headlights Media.
Woulda guessed 34/37 and wouldn’t have been shocked by a 34/36.
I mean considering how the economy is at the moment 50/50 is actually pretty good for labour also they were 50/50 at the beginning of the labour at April and then wouldn’t back to 51 to 49 for a couple of months honestly I think people just like they don’t really want Labor but they don’t really want liberal
Who did say that Mex Beemer?
I don’t recall any Labor supporters saying the disabled didn’t matter.
Where has this come from.
Thanks Leroy & HH. Both on the ball with this stuff.
Griff says: Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 8:55 pm
Griff, I absolutely agree with you, and I guess I am pulling my punches on this website, to keep the conversation civil.
The Greens are looking towards Project 2040, as Lord Bain said. Bob Brown had said that he planed for the Greens to supplant the Labor Party by 2050, but the Greens having the ability to blockade in the Senate now means the no more legislation can be passed in the rest term of parliament.
Bob Brown originally said that “We are not here to keep the bastards honest, we are here to replace them.”
And he was pretty clear that it was Labor he meant to replace:
“Senator Brown has told The Weekend Australian newspaper that he envisages a much broader political future than the passage of the carbon and mining taxes in coming months.
He says the Greens are now in a similar position to what the Labor Party was 100 years ago.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/bob-brown-aiming-for-major-party-status/ulyo74y58
It is bizarre that the Greens on this site accuse of you of being a “Labor luvvie”, when I know that you are Reason Party inclined. One of my colleagues, who wore a lovely kilt, was a then “Sex Party” candidate.
Sky news is launching a radio station.
Comm bank will be releasing its July Aussie spending figures in next day or two that will say if people are spending the tax cuts big time.
Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (0) Dutton 39 (0)
Albanese: Approve 43 (-1) Disapprove 51 (0)
Dutton: Approve 40 (-1) Disapprove 50 (+1)
Let them crow Nadia, at the end of the day they have zero chance of forming government on their own.
New thread.
Messaging on Nuclear in general has been poor.
Sure, Marlesy said there’s no agreementb to take other countries Nuclear Waste, just Australia’s own, but how is that calculated and what’s Labor the definition of ‘own’?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Australia has given Labor a go, but doesn’t trust them as far as they could kick them.
Whereas Dutts, whatever anyone thinks, he was a detective, so he knows right from wrong.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Alternatively, a lot more than anyone thought have been following Reynolds/Higgins Defo.
If that’s the case, then the next NewsPoll in 2 weeks could see L-NP on 44 or 45, whiuch would be Game Over, Labor.
MABWM
Was just thinking this earlier.
In the Rudd-Gllard-Rudd years he was opposition health spokesman, famous for never asking question of the Minister.
Then he was Minister for Health, famous for being regarded as the worst Health Minister in memory.
Then he was Home Affairs Minister, famous for presiding over a scandal ridden department and giving Pezullo free rein.
Then Defence Minister, famous for … nothing.
Now Opposition Leader, famous for thinking nuclear power is a good thing.
I can’t think of another policy initiative of this that would make Australia a better place.
I’m a lifelong Labor voter but I’ll admit I’ve never seen a Labor Government that didn’t disappoint in some way.
The idea that Dutton-led government could be better than am Albanes Government, warts and all, just boggles my mind.
Dutton embodies the old saying: the only reason the Liberal Party exists is to keep Labor out of office. He isn’t offering anything else.
Griff
Just in case I did not say it clearly enough, Yep, I completely agree with you.
It seems we are watching the end of social democracy.
Also, any chance of catching up with you and AE for a boozy catch-up?
Badthinker I don’t want to call you insane but um I don’t think the case going is going well for Reynolds also you do realize Peter Dalton is also not popular right
Quentin Rountree says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 10:04 pm
How isn’t the case going well for Reynolds?
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 9:59 pm
Griff
“I am not as worried about the Lower House. My concern is that The Greens would take a Labor minority government as a further sign of weakness and double down on the blockade in the Senate, as they would correctly have perceived that it whittles down public confidence in Labor. The overall result is a lack of progress and then the Coalition returns.”
Just in case I did not say it clearly enough, Yep, I completely agree with you.
It seems we are watching the end of social democracy.
Also, any chance of catching up with you and AE for a boozy catch-up?
___________
Absolutely. If William is monitoring this thread, please let D&M have my email.
“FDR won each election by the skin of his teeth , evolving from Dr New Deal, to Dr Win the War.”
Not so. Results for FDR, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944:
57.3% for 472 to 59, 60.2%, for 523 to 8, 54.7% for 449 to 82 and 53.3% for 432 to 99.