Time for a new thread, but with not much to report – so the weekly Roy Morgan poll gets a rare guernsey. This week the pollster has Labor ahead 51.5-48.5 on both its respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures, respectively comparing with 50.5-49.5 and 51-49 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (down one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1655.
Two items of preselection news:
• The Nationals have preselected Gunnedah mayor Jamie Chaffey to succeed Mark Coulton when he retires from his rural New South Wales seat of Parkes at the next election. Chaffey won a local party ballot on Saturday from a field of three.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports five nominees for Liberal National Party preselection for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of veteran member Warren Entsch: Alana McKenna, a “local aviation identity” who has Entsch’s endorsement; Sam Brayshaw, a geologist said to be supported by “far north Queensland conservative establishment figures Deirdre and Colin Ford”; local branch secretary Darcy Sanders; Jeremy Neal, a former Cairns councillor; and Margaret Milutinovic, who promotes herself as a “financial goddess”.
When is the next Newspoll ? The recurring cartoon theme was in effect about a do nothing government on insiders today. Is that perception coming from punters on the street or political tragics who love to read the mood and tell us what they think? 51-49 pro Labor I think because Dutton is not cutting through with a ,”this is how we will fix your cost of living woes” plan, not yet anyway. Everything else is just political noise (the gambling ads debate, CFMEU, Higgins case, sanctioning or not sanctioning Israel, US election, whether or not Wong et all contributed to the death of a Labor MP,whether or not the Greens are blocking housing relief policy etc or the Coalition are just a Noalition). The punters will be be asking first what are you going to do to preserve or improve my household budget. Unless Dutton can answer that fundamental question we will drift to a Labor minority government in 2025 with a few more Teals on the cross bench and Dutton sent to purgatory for failing to impress ‘Howard’s battlers” in outer metro seats after turning inner metro seats into Liberal Party extiction zones. I’m not happy with the state of Australian politics either but that’s how it looks from my perspective.
‘BK says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 11:21 am
I lasted just over one minute this morning before the tone of Speers’ voice turned me right off Insiders. Enough is enough!
Poisoning boundaries and rocky areas was far more entertaining and relaxing!’
———————–
lolz. You allocated just over one minute more to Insiders than did I.
Our serial obsessive has lost the plot. Now it’s the greens who are pushing the Overton window to the right. No matter how much evidence to the contrary is presented, or actual coalition policy the ALP either implements or leaves in place
But yes bore, it’s the greens pushing the Overton window to the right, ALP policy would otherwise have made this country a progressive paradise by now
BK
“I lasted just over one minute this morning before the tone of Speers’ voice turned me right off Insiders. Enough is enough!
Poisoning boundaries and rocky areas was far more entertaining and relaxing!”
Thanks for the warning. That is one less show I need to catch up on.
Its a beautiful day here. I might go out and enjoy it.
The ICE age soon endeth…
“Samsung to Mass-Produce Solid-State Batteries for ‘Super Premium’ EVs by 2027”
https://www.pcmag.com/news/samsung-to-mass-produce-solid-state-batteries-for-super-premium-evs-by
meher babasays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:50 am
Ven: “Was there any discussion on PB of minorities being butchered in Bangladesh?”
——————————————————————————
The situation of the Hindus in Bangladesh is alarming.
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While no doubt there is worrying ethnic violence occurring currently in Bangladesh. By looking at Griff’s earlier post, this level is currently magnitudes less severe than what happened to the Rohingya’s. The idea that the so called “West” could in anyway intervene and stop it, as suggested by a certain poster, is not something that can be taken seriously though. This region is no way within any western nations sphere of influence though. Let’s face it, western nations can’t even effectively protect the Philippines from a very aggressive neighbour stealing their islands. Any actual external action to stop ethnic violence in Bangladesh. Would need to be carried out by the regional powers that exist there. Which is certainly not the so called “West”. Basically it could probably only occur with the full agreement of the three regional nuclear powers. China, India and Pakistan which i can’t see happening but it is certainly their region. By becoming nuclear powers they have put themselves in a position, where they have to some degree, the responsibility of keeping peace in the region.
Quote: “With great power comes great responsibility”
‘PageBoi says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 11:43 am
Our serial obsessive has lost the plot. Now it’s the greens who are pushing the Overton window to the right. …’
——————
There is not a lot of awareness about how political processes work. The extremist Greens positions are helping Dutton.
You probably don’t have the slightest clue about how extreme the Greens positions really are. Just for a small starter, Zero Net Forty (that is in just 15 years) would involve the loss of at least half a million jobs and the loss of most of the international tourism industry. It would mean replacing practically the entire Australian vehicle fleet. Add the other industries that the Greens will make disappear. Add the ADF being gutted.
Then there is the hypocrisy and the flip flops.
Being totally against the Voice for 8 full months. Being totally for more housing until it comes to blocking housing funding and astroturfing against local housing developments. Being for wind farms and then astro turfing against wind farms.
Then there is the blithe ignorance of how expensive a six month delay is in a three year term. Could not give a flying fuck.
Then there is the total lack of balance and the deliberate and systematic stoking of communalist tensions with respect to Gaza.
I know you don’t like being reminded of these things but most of them are constants. They are happening all the time. They are not a news event of the day thing. They are the Greens constant state.
The political motivation is perfectly clear: to try to make sure that Labor goes down at the next election.
Same same Dutton, right?
Do you seriously think that Dutton is not secretly pissing himself with laughter at the way the Greens are giving him a constant political feed?
@plus 4.3%
@.5%
You guys had better get your destructo game exactly right or you will be responsible for another ten years of Coalition governments.
UK cartoons and other miscellany
Chris Riddell
Martyn Turner
Andy Davey
Tom Gauld
Mike Seddon
Ella Baron
Guy Venables
Harry Burton
Dave Walker
Wayno
Kent Tayler
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
Someone here will explain this one:
Who is the jerk with the soda jockey?
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
One issue for #Insiders and its ilk…
The chance of a rate hike at any stage in the next 18 months: 0%
Chance of a 25bp cut by end 2024: ~70%
And ~80bps of rate cuts priced in by end 2025.
It’s the RBA vs Investors in the Market NOT the govt.
meher baba says Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 7:50 am
The solution isn’t to “defund the police”, but to better train (and recruit) them. The US in particular has issues because of the huge number of law enforcement agencies (each LGA has its own police force). Some of these, whether police or sheriffs, are tiny and lack the scale to adequately train their members. There also needs to be more money invested in other public services that will ultimately reduce the load on the police.
Outside the US, many countries have problems with corruption, especially with their police.
H
Whole lot of rate rise gaslighting going on.
Re the Star Trek cartoon. The red shirts usually end up getting killed.
I’ve always found that utterly insane how each municipality has its own police force in the US. It’s no wonder the quality of police officer is so varied, and the training so inconsistent
I’ve always found that utterly insane how each municipality has its own police force in the US. It’s no wonder the quality of police officer is so varied, and the training so inconsistent
______
PageBoi
It’s simply crazy how deep they go in electing all sorts of public officials.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 12:41 pm
H
Whole lot of rate rise gaslighting going on.
==================================================
That’s true, there is basically zero chance of a rate rise in the next 6 months. While the RBA knows that they want be doing one. They don’t want to actually say that. As they want to still get inflation down. So just having the fear there could be, is the main lever they are operating to bring down inflation now.
Peta Credlin’s column on Labor is the worst government ever is rewriting history and downright hypocritical. She bangs on about Labor’s economic incompetence, but is quiet as a mouse on the fact the Liberals left a debt five times as much as Labor’s and pushed the national debt out to trillion. What’s laughable is she makes this comment:
The basic problem is that the government can’t help pushing the fiscal accelerator in a bid to buy votes while the bank is trying to stamp on the brake to bring inflation down.
It gets overlooked but Tony Abbott as Prime Minster manage to surpass Labor’s debt in one term compared both Rudd’s and Gillard’s two terms combined. The polls sagged down, and Abbott panicked and started spending like a drunken sailor to try and get himself out of trouble. And who was Abbott’s chief of staff: Peta Credlin
It gets overlooked but Tony Abbott as Prime Minster manage to surpass Labor’s debt in one term compared both Rudd’s and Gillard’s two terms combined.
==================================================
Not even that. The fiscally incompetent Tony was a few days shy of 2 years as PM. So more like two thirds of a term.
BK says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 12:56 pm
They have the world’s most democratic dog catchers .. it compensates for having 3rd world infrastructure
What will be the marathon course for Brisbane?
Aussie Jess Stenson leading the marathon… !
(Oops. I posted this on the wrong thread.)
D & M, thank you for today’s cartoons & miscellany. I got a chuckle from this one:
‘Life is short. Make sure you spend as much time as possible on the
internet arguing with strangers.’
“You are awful but I like you.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vawBiuGHq1c
Marathon course for Brisbane ? A few options,maybe out to Pinkenba and back or a loop around Caboolture or out to Port of Brisbane and Lota. If you remember the 1982 Commonwealth Games well it will be something like that!!!
Resolve Poll out. Looks like we have a double event this evening!
* ALP 29% (up 1)
* LNP 37% (down 1)
* GRN 13% (steady)
* ONP 6% (down 1)
* Clive 2% (up 1)
* Others 14% (steady)
No 2PP – WB or Steve777, could you calculate please.
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Howdy Mavis! Howdy Been There! Howdy Lordbain.
Back for one night for Newspoll.
50.2-49.8 to Labor for mine.
Getting close WB. I see you’re sitting on 50.4 ALP. Jeepers, this is getting tight.
Slight lift for Labor in QLD.
Drop for the Libs in Vic.
Hard to know what to make of it.
Resolve Strategic does some to have become Labor’s least favourable series, having previously been most.
My rough calculation of Resolve ALP 2PP:
29 + 0 + 11 (Grn) + 3 (PHON+Pmr) + 7 (other) = 50.
Very tight Steve777.
“something” has set in, and the polls appear to be baked.
Libs high 30’s, occasionally crossing into the 40’s.
Labor (dare I mention it), once again < 30%. I think this is the 5th time (on various polls) now
since Jul-1.
Posters, pls don't blame me each time Labor slips below the 30% threshold.
I don't want to go through the carry on of June-July. I just like to do the polls and a bit of a gasbag with the pollster minded people on the site.
nadia88:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 6:03 pm
Hi nadia. Don’t stay away this time.
Mavis @ #1431 Sunday, August 11th, 2024 – 6:30 pm
Especially since this site has improved enormously in the last few days!
Doubt ONP would poll 6% but if the other’s 34% splits 19-15 to ALP gives LNP 52-ALP 48.
Player One says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 6:34 pm
Mavis @ #1431 Sunday, August 11th, 2024 – 6:30 pm
nadia88:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 6:03 pm
Hi nadia. Don’t stay away this time.
[‘Especially since this site has improved enormously in the last few days!’]
You could say that but it’s not in my nature to attempt to take advantage of another who’s been temporarily sidelined.
I’ll hang around tonight Mavis, and then maybe drop by for the Qld election.
I knew we had a newspoll tonight (hopefully, of course), but then I remembered Resolve was due and when I checked it was sitting there on the SMH website. I watch my polls, as you know.
Thankyou for your nice words earlier & I hope all is well with you. I’m sorry I left the site a couple of weeks ago the way I did. I don’t want to go through the background again, but yes I’ll swing by in the lead-up to the QLD election.
I do like the polls and reading the analysis from the good posters on this site.
I prefer to keep out of the scratchy stuff. Not for me.
Kevin Bonham on twitter
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1822555390544142611
“My 2PP estimate off these primaries 50.8 (+0.7)”
Nice to see you around again, Nadia. And yeah, I get that feeling, a lot of the time it’s fairly fun here, it’s why I’ve hung around for 14 years instead of twitter and news comment sections, but the bad days can be “spiritually taxing” as Heathcliff from Sword Art Online Abridged puts it (fantastic Youtube series, totally recommend it).
nadia88:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 6:52 pm
[‘I prefer to keep out of the scratchy stuff. Not for me.’]
Yes, some can get tetchy on here from time to time. Ease back in into it & it will be like you never left. It’s too good a resource to consider retirement.
Thanks Laughtong!
Nadia: ” Very tight Steve777.”
Yes indeed. I see that people who know a lot more about this stuff than me have got (slightly) more favourable results, still less than 51. The margin of error is about 2-3% depending upon sample size.
Certainly still a bit too close for comfort, especially given that Labor generally does better in polls than actual elections and that it will have much of the media campaigning against it.
No probs Kirsdarke, and I hope all’s well with you too. You are a good sort and a long time poster here, much much longer than I.
To clarify (from your comment a couple of weeks ago), yes I was born in 1988, hence the nadia “88” thing. Original stuff isn’t it!
It is a good site, and there are some ripper posters here, and yes I was def enjoying PB2024, until a couple of weeks ago. I do like the polls and reading what our good posters make of it all.
I’ll hang around tonight to see what the posters make of Newspoll, and then drop by for the QLD election, and then maybe the U.S. election on Nov.6 (Weds our time). You still up for this?
I think Newspoll tonight will be another so-so poll. Nothing dramatic either way.
Reason: International events tend to keep the majors on the uptick. There’s clearly alot going on in the U.S., and the escalation of war in Ukraine/Russia along with the M.E.
Should be nothing dramatic tonight (if we have a Newspoll…of course)
Good to have you staying around nadia
Sceptic
Ahh, but how many turn out to vote for the dogcatcher? Is it only the dog haters who are motivated to turn out, and bring all the nursing home residents to vote with them?
You need a valid random statistical sample to be sure that you are capturing what the electorate actually thinks probably at least greater than 60% turnout.
With the US voting system, and politicised electoral boundaries and laws (by state legislature), it is way too easy for nutcases to capture a polity.
Remember the Orange People:
In Oregon, the movement’s large intentional community of the early 1980s, called Rajneeshpuram,[5][6] caused immediate tensions in the local community for its attempts to take over the nearby town of Antelope and later the county seat of The Dalles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajneesh_movement
Sandmansays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 11:36 am
When is the next Newspoll ? The recurring cartoon theme was in effect about a do nothing government on insiders today. Is that perception coming from punters on the street or political tragics who love to read the mood and tell us what they think? 51-49 pro Labor I think because Dutton is not cutting through with a ,”this is how we will fix your cost of living woes” plan, not yet anyway.
_____________________
He leads 40% to 23% on Economic Management according to Resolve.
What more do you want.
My honest assessment is that Albo needs to do something big, dramatic and good to turn this around. Something on the level of Hawke and Keating floating the Australian Dollar. Coasting along like he is now will probably result in him just stalling short of the finish line while the media pushes Dutton over it next year.
He could use their blatant bias against them. Almost everything that comes from them lately is “I HATE LABOR AND SO SHOULD YOU!!” so what’s some major structural reform that benefits most of the country going to do other than make them scar their throats in screaming even louder?
Nadia
I have been dipping in and out of the site lately, but I hope no one is actually shooting the messenger.
The polls are as published by the pollster, and we may not like what they say, and we can discuss hose biases, but you cannot argue with the numbers.
As Mavis said, please stay.
Also, Mavis, I answered you on the US thread. I finally worked out where everyone else had gone!
What’s a “cooker”?
@Nadia
Ah, I thought so. I was also born in 1988.
Diogenes
A brain-addled individual like a meth cook.
Diogenes @ #1446 Sunday, August 11th, 2024 – 7:33 pm
Essentially a right-wing conspiracy theorist, the type that rioted against the COVID lockdowns because they think the vaccinations against it was a means for the Chinese government to inflict mind-control via their 5G networks.