The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. Labor is down a point to 32%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 6%. Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Peter Dutton is is down one to 40% and up one to 50%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-39. The poll also finds 22% expect a majority Labor government after the next election, 33% minority Labor, 24% minority Coalition and 21% majority Coalition. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1266.
Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, showing Labor up a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 37%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation down one to 6%, suggesting a two-party preferred very close to 50-50. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up two to 34%, with poor and very poor down three to 51%, while Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 41% and down two to 38%. Dutton maintains a one-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 35-34 to 36-35. The breakdowns show roguish-looking movements on gender that cancel each other out, with Labor up five among men to 32% and down four among women to 25%, and the Coalition down four among men to 39% and up two among women to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Looming ahead are the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll on Tuesday and a big week in South Australia, where the Liberals will choose a new Opposition Leader tomorrow and a draft state redistribution will be published on Thursday.
Boerwar says Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 7:41 pm
So what was the reason for the delay in replacing the AAT? I can understand the Coalition blocking the legislation as they had stacked it with party hacks, but that doesn’t excuse other parties.
Mavis says Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 7:06 pm
I’m struggling to think of anyone else who has, reportedly, been the inspiration for a Bond villain.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 9:31 pm
@Griff
I know what I have to say is probably not that useful, and it pains me to agree that yes, Albo’s government has been quite shit for those of us who wanted something different from the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison regime, but perhaps considering that voting Labor again in 2025 might help flip a few more seats in the Senate, in which the “Class of 2019” will be up for re-election, and that might make good policy changes more doable.
I know it’s somewhat pitiful to ask something like that, since all Albo’s been doing for the past year is look glum while same-as-usual misery has been going on regardless. But there’s only so much that can be done with what we have at the moment. The A-T-M Coalition government from 2013-2022 locked in so many political landmines that if Labor detonates any then it would make everything so much worse. And then meanwhile there’s the Green clowns to the side chanting “Ha-ha~ you can’t clear mines or do anything~ nya-nya~”
I think Australia can do so much more better than this, but the attitude of “Welp, Labor was imperfect, let’s vote for the Coalition for another decade” that’s been going on for the past 30 years hasn’t helped. And I’m angry at Labor too for this learned helplessness complex they’ve developed since the Beazley years.
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Well I am not in the ACT so I don’t have Pocock as a choice in the Senate. Reason is no longer and it has been almost a decade since I have considered The Greens Party as actors of good faith. Labor has my vote. If the Teals collectivise then it is a new ball game of course and policies would be looked at. Labor needs to recall the lesson of Rudd. If you tell the electorate that it is important, then you need to stick with it or risk losing political capital when you twist.
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 9:29 pm
Griff says:
Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 5:43 pm
And for the record, Labor had better not squibb on gambling advertising. We shall see.
Yep! And I am not even talking about ethics here – I am talking about political goodwill.
Peta Murphy, when she was dying (at age 37), implored the government to outlaw gambling advertisements, in the same way that tobacco advertisements were outlawed two decades ago.
In the same way that (I remember) people said two decades ago that sports teams could not survive without tobacco advertisements, and then alcohol advertisements, the teams survived quite well.
Federal Labor has great story to tell – Peta Murphy, while knowing she was dying, was willing to take on one of the great evils* in our society ‘encouraging working class people to believe that gambling was fun, and aspirational”.
I am really disappointed that Federal Labor are not willing to try and turn this into a story that can capture the public imagination, and make them seem like a force for good.
It is a throw of the dice – it may work or it may not, but it is far better to regret the things you do, than the things you do not do.
Of course I realise that in the end, given that even Ninefax are upset about the loss of gaming advertising revenue, it would be a suicide mission. “In to the valley of death …”
But given that the Australian voters prefer Coalition government at least 75% of the time, maybe gambling reform is the ditch to die in.
Maybe in 13 years, the voters, after having thought about it, might be ready for gambling advertising reform.
But as a physicist, Dutton PM will be really sad for me. We have actually, in Australia, made great strides towards the renewable revolution during this term of the Federal Labor government. EVs are the new “cool”, supported by subsidies, as are solar panels and heat-pump hot water systems.
Dutton has been honest in his pitch to the voters that he will reverse the transition to renewables.
And, as someone who lives in a poorer suburb, the Albanese government bringing back the parenting payment for single parents until a child is 14 is one of the best social improvements for me in two decades.
And also, the fact that women who have abusive partners that they have escaped from, and share a child with, no longer need to ask their partner to contribute to the care of the child or risk losing their payment – well, that saves women’s lives.
So yeah, the Albanese government is really crap at telling the world what they have done – well basically they have done stuff that very few people really care about – as you said Meher Baba – , and yes, they should do a hell of a lot more, but I think it is all going to end in tears.
Just the way the world is now. Everyone hates the current government. It is the same in France, just a symptom of our times.
*I tried to find another word rather than “evil”, but nothing else came to mind.
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As per usual Labor is between the devil and the deep blue sea.* However I remain hopeful, if not optimistic, that they will strike a positive outcome on this issue. I don’t need perfection 🙂 I also reason that the Teal buffer and the first term effect should provide sufficient security even now. If Labor shifts to minority government next term, would it really be that different to the current situation with The Greens stonewalling in the Senate? I see it neither as a negative nor a positive, despite several here believing it will be a game changer. Perhaps the main difference is that it is more likely to keep Dutton about for the election after next. I also think economic conditions will improve before May.
And on the previous thread I asked William to provide you with my email if you wanted to arrange a meet up.
*which one is the Coalition and which is The Greens? 🙂
Mexicanbeemer at 7.44 pm, Griff at 7.55 pm, Rossmcg at 8.08 pm, Douglas & Milko at 9.29 pm, Kirsdarke at 9.31 and 10.43 pm, Blackburnpseph at 10.25 pm
Many years ago early in the 21st century Stephen Smith made a pertinent comment on a WA state election broadcast about Labor’s electoral weakness deriving from its timidity and conservatism. While that was a state election broadcast, he was trying to explain the consistent failure then of federal Labor.
D & M please use would for Dutton as PM, not will. For Labor to lose to Dutton would be the worst own goal it has scored for 15 years, because Dutton lacks the cunning of J.W. Howard, while having no policy other than denying renewables.
Shorten obviously has a conflict of interest, and an attachment to timidity, in trampling on Peta Murphy’s legacy, as stated emphatically by her husband.
Remember John Clarke’s view of Shorten – a fizzer who could not change the political tempo. Less effective than Turnbull was Clarke’s assessment. He should stick to his portfolio.
The issue with the cop out on gambling reform is basically one of perception. While Labor insiders might spout the line of dubious “balance” as a pale excuse for timidity, what would the voters of Dunkley think?
Either Peta Murphy and all that Committee were right, or they were not. Most voters, if they bothered to think about it, would probably agree with the policy proposed by Murphy.
I once told Albo about how our Fire Brigade captain could not bring himself to turn out for Labor in 2019, because he was insufficiently impressed by how Labor communicated then about what it stood for and why. He has turned out for McBain, and for the Voice referendum. Much will depend on quality local members and candidates.
The risk to Albo is that he ends up a la Beazley in very belatedly trying to clarify what he stands for, because people have had their creeping doubts about his timidity reinforced, not allayed.
However, the election is still probably 9 months away. The least anodyne comment that Simon Birmingham ever made was to note, by implication, the big difference between Dutton’s nuclear policy and J.W. Howard, who waffled from the headland without revealing so much as a policy about spin bowling, as Moir put it in a cartoon (1995).
2 days back in Parliament and get the feeling things are not likely to get better for Labor, there just doesn’t seem to be enough time in the term to turn around perceptions of the government even if they were to choose a different path and competently prosecute it. To be honest there is nothing to suggest either or both of these things is likely to happen anyway.
Allowing record numbers of immigrants in during a housing and cost of living crisis while doing little to address said crises is their most clear and serious fail. Their perceived weakness on gambling ad reform that the vast majority of voters support stronger action on isn’t going to help their popularity either and will probably reinforce perceptions they are indecisive and incapable of enacting anything that is seen as even a mild political risk.
Labor’s best thing going for it is the lack of enthusiasm for Dutton and the LNP. Still it’s hard to see them being able to do any better than minority government when people are hardly enthusiastic about Labor either.
Boerwar 7.41pm
[ This is a wonderful win for Dutton and Bandt. Their joint actions are crippling sensible reforms by a perfectly sound centre left government.
They got Whitlam. They will get Albanese.]
The merry-go-round of discussion of the pros and cons, a duplicitous media, a lazy brain dead public, the wolf in Greens clothing and a chilling realization that a policy free LNP Opposition has been allowed to pull the coal over the eyes of a very unlucky country.
At a time, so blessed with possibilities, the Greens presence in the Senate coupled with the Greens desire to be significant, has hindered and hampered reform, given oxygen to the right naysayers and opened the possibilities of “third worldism” inequality in a grand scale.
Who’d ever thought the Greens, smeared with so many possibilities fifty years ago could subject themselves to being paraded around, with an LNP handler named Dutton, a ring through the nose of a neutered pedigree and a future of scorn.
The birth of the Teals is testimony to immersion of a once progressive Greens now no more than a tepid Country/National Party, and a conduit for denialism.
The irony, Australia going for gold at the last election, having to accept something less, the only glee belonging to the few, untethered again, to deny a thoroughly duped subset of voters to accept a lesser fate.
Like Sandman, it’s difficult to watch for many.
Blaming everyone other than Labor politicians for their current political problems obviously brings some people comfort but it’s also ridiculous. Clearly Labor in this term has had to govern with strong headwinds but it also has to take some responsibility for where it’s at and reflect on where it could have done better.
Been There says:
Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 11:45 pm
No. It doesn’t happen everywhere.
Is that it? That one example?
New thread.