The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. Labor is down a point to 32%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 6%. Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Peter Dutton is is down one to 40% and up one to 50%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-39. The poll also finds 22% expect a majority Labor government after the next election, 33% minority Labor, 24% minority Coalition and 21% majority Coalition. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1266.
Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, showing Labor up a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 37%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation down one to 6%, suggesting a two-party preferred very close to 50-50. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up two to 34%, with poor and very poor down three to 51%, while Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 41% and down two to 38%. Dutton maintains a one-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 35-34 to 36-35. The breakdowns show roguish-looking movements on gender that cancel each other out, with Labor up five among men to 32% and down four among women to 25%, and the Coalition down four among men to 39% and up two among women to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Looming ahead are the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll on Tuesday and a big week in South Australia, where the Liberals will choose a new Opposition Leader tomorrow and a draft state redistribution will be published on Thursday.
MAWBM
Was just thinking this earlier.
In the Rudd-Gllard-Rudd years Dutton was opposition health spokesman, famous for never asking question of the Minister.
Then he was Minister for Health, famous for being regarded as the worst Health Minister in memory.
Then he was Home Affairs Minister, famous for presiding over a scandal ridden department and giving Pezullo free rein.
Then Defence Minister, famous for … nothing.
Now Opposition Leader, famous for thinking nuclear power is a good thing.
I can’t think of another policy initiative of this that would make Australia a better place.
I’m a lifelong Labor voter but I’ll admit I’ve never seen a Labor Government that didn’t disappoint in some way.
The idea that Dutton-led government could be better than am Albanese Government, warts and all, just boggles my mind.
Dutton embodies the old saying: the only reason the Liberal Party exists is to keep Labor out of office. He isn’t offering anything else.
So it looks like it’s going to be a slugfest I think it’s gonna come down to minority Labor government or hung parliament unless of course Labor or liberal do something stupid you’re a nearly got the newspoll for one right I was once off Peter and Anthony seems to be going up on disapproval wonder if it’s gonna be more independence in parliament next year
Been Theresays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 9:45 pm
Who said that beemer?
Name one!
nadia88says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 9:47 pm
Who did say that Mex Beemer?
I don’t recall any Labor supporters saying the disabled didn’t matter.
Where has this come from.
——————–
Last Saturday after criticizing the response to the disability royal commission two labor supporters complained it was wrong. One said it was wrong to criticize Albo for not tweeting about it when the issue isn’t high on Albo’s agenda and the other one said i should stop talking about it because its not important. one is on a holiday the other ones name slips my memory.
Nuclear Waste is a big deal in Australia, Labor secrecy over AUKUS rings alarm bells.
I think the sane part of the electorate has realised that The Tree Tories are all show and no substance on the Environment and Labor are a Party of Permanent Opposition.
The slow downward trend for Labor seems unabated, and it’s unclear what they are planning to do to turn it around. Would be nice to see them standing on a more ambitious agenda at the next election and pointing out what that is ASAP, but even if they choose to do that it’s not like they have a record of achievement in government to point to as a reason for re-election. Maybe being small target at the 2022 election wasn’t such a good idea after all. Don’t think the LNP have what it takes to convince enough people they would be any better so a minority parliament would seem the clear favourite right now. Doubts around Dutton and the LNP are probably what’s keeping it close atm.
Badthinker this is not this is not good for the LNP if the government was truly on the nose it should be in the mid 50sin not dead heat also Peter and popular that’s what also it does sound like you want Peter to be a dictator hoping that the labour is just a permitted opposition party that the lnp can do whatever they want
MJ I think the labour government just wants to get to an election with nothing bad happening just they just want the first term hey we kept the promises we kept it was hard but we kept it we want to do more
What can Dutton offer other than manage the Labor mess for 6 or 9 years until the dopey electorate forget why they elected him?
It’s not like Liberals could win on a policy of dismantling NDIS and Medicare and abolishing the AAT.
The main fear I have for Labor at the moment is that Albo is reverting to curling up into fetal position like he did at the start of the 2022 election campaign where he messed up at a press conference about unemployment figures and that seemed to utterly destroy him. Apparently he walked around for days afterward as like he was in a trance muttering about how he had let everyone down.
This seems to fit the pattern of what’s he’s doing now. If he wants to win, he needs to snap out of this state immediately.
More margin-of-error stuff across all polling, and it seems that the situation hasn’t changed much since the polls tightened in the second half of last year, when the wind started going out of Labor’s sails. Little of Labor’s loss is the Coalition’s gain, though, and the likely situation is that Labor has its nose just in front, if any by default. The next election (almost certainly now in 2025) promises to be close, but Labor is much better-placed to form government again afterwards, either with a similar majority as now or in minority.
Of course, lots could happen (and quite possibly will happen) which might yet tip the scales, but a Labor seat haul in the mid-high 70s seems the most likely outcome as things stand at the moment.
Quentin Rountree:
Rule By Decree won’t happen under L-NP, though I wouldn’t put it past Labor.
ATM they’ve got a majority, but they’re looking at a long time in the bin after the next go round.
Bad thinker calling the people that voted Labor in morons is a really not a good way to win them over and no what about the what about the six to nine years that the liberal party did for Australia I think labour deserves another chance and then we kick them out we give the liberal party numerous chances and they’re still bad also it’s probably not a good idea to go after Medicare and ndis is and stuff that helps people
Ok MexBeemer. I can’t imagine this would be ALP policy, but I won’t argue about what some ALP supporter may have said or not. Doesn’t sound right to me, but I’ll leave it be
Well, we all here are very passionate about our politics.
And at this moment in time, we are not inclined to try and work together.
So here is Johnny Cash’s rendition of the “Battle Hymn of the Republic”, explaining that both sides sang this hymn, and both sides assumed that god was on their side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQhyWv-PeVE
Wait are you saying that the labour government will mandate that a rule forever you insane best Centre left at best yeah because like if anything if LNP gets in it could also end up being a one-term government
nadia88says:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 10:16 pm
Ok MexBeemer. I can’t imagine this would be ALP policy, but I won’t argue about what some ALP supporter may have said or not. Doesn’t sound right to me, but I’ll leave it be
——————–
talking about labor people here not ALP policy and government members.
I do live in Queensland where the lmp usually what a screw it up into one term they always get
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 10:09 pm
Badthinker this is not this is not good for the LNP if the government was truly on the nose it should be in the mid 50sin not dead heat…..
_____________________
That’s one way of looking at it I suppose.
After 3 terms in Oppostion I would be thinking Labor should be further in front.
Looks like anti-Morrison liberals have gone home but that normally happened after one term so labor probably wins between 70 to 80 seats and the liberals hold all theirs and might pick up 4 to 8.
TaylorMade yeah but you have to think this it could be worth for labour like I even think labour knew it wasn’t going to be 55 to 45 or of 54 to 46 for their term honestly I’m surprised that LNP haven’t won a news poll on the I would have thought they would have been at least 51 49 for a couple weeks that’s why I said it’s anyone’s game Labor or liberal someone has to do something stupid and I don’t think anyone is unless you Labor decides that everybody’s kids transgender or the liberals decide that every kid’s gonna be force baptized nothing stupid is going to happen
Beemer you know no one here thinks the disabled don’t matter.
To try say the someone Labor on here said they don’t is an outrageous slur!
Don’t worry about your mealy mouthed someone’s on holidays and someone disagreed with a royal commission’s findings.
You’re talking through your backside, just lucky for you and me that I have been choice with my words.
You need to apologise!
The ALP primary is not in the best shape. There is no doubts about this.
Quentin, sorry I’m not trying to burst a bubble or put anyone down, but there is another issue at play in the community which is depressing the ALP primary.
32% primary and 29% earlier tonight (yes another sub 30% primary), is not good. It’s anaemic.
The flipside issue is that the LNP vote keeps creeping up to that 40% threshold.
I suspect they (the LNP) have lapped up the UAP vote, but keep in mind PHON is sitting there in the background with 5-6%. That vote doesn’t seem to be affected, at least not going by bludgertrack.
The ALP have had several strikes of the cherry this year, none of which seem to have worked.
1. January – S3 revision. No boost.
2. May – Budget. No boost.
3. July – S3 tax cuts implemented. No boost, in fact they went backwards. Many posters earlier this year were stating the S3 revision would be the clincher. July has been a disaster for the ALP, but I blame the W.A. Senator fiasco on this. I thought the ALP vote may climb after Dutton’s Paris backflip mid June, but clearly voters have other concerns or perhaps they aren’t concerned about the Paris backflip. Maybe voters may warm to the tax cuts during August/Sep. I doubt it somehow.
There is clearly another issue at play.
Been Theresays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 10:30 pm
Beemer you know no one here thinks the disabled don’t matter.
To try say the someone Labor on here said they don’t is an outrageous slur!
Don’t worry about your mealy mouthed someone’s on holidays and someone disagreed with a royal commission’s findings.
You’re talking through your backside, just lucky for you and me that I have been choice with my words.
You need to apologise!
————————
argument was over the government’s response so there’s no slur.
Good thing they spent $40,000,000.00 telling us we have tax cuts – because we wouldn’t have known, otherwise.
Dutton’s Paris backflip ????????
I have absolutely no idea what you’re referring to – and I am way more politically engaged than the vast majority of voters.
Yeah but the problem is I’m gonna be honest ninda88 it’s what still ten months to election like this is this isn’t in Queensland election where labours 43 to LNP 57 anything could happen I do I think lnp has a chance yes am I gonna and I’m going to be a am I going to be a doomer welcome Peter nor am I gonna say Anthony has this in the bag no it’s just anything can happen remember we all thought that the labour government was going to be in 2019 look how that turn out and if Peter does get in well I hope he’s a bit smarter than Tony Abbott and doesn’t do anything stupid but knowing him he’d probably say he’s gonna disband Medicare and then wonder why people kicked his ass out three years also Peter is in not popular same with Anthony so it could be a case of the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t know
I’m pretty sure the labour budget got a boost of 52 to 48 newpoll so they just need to get their messaging in order
Housing is not fixed moving a dud like Claire bear into that is a disaster.
When we say housing take your pick from rents through roof,failure to meaningfully reduce population importing,lack of houses being built,homelessness and rental shortages.
Agreed with Nadia’s points at 10:33pm, just that Albo doesn’t seem to be willing or able to give us anything to be politically excited about. Of course we of the centre-left don’t need to be fed constantly like seagulls, but, frankly, he’s been starving us of anything nice to be proud of lately. Yes the remix of the Stage 3 Tax Cuts was welcome, but, since then…? Nothing but a reshuffle, where results have yet to be seen.
This really is his last year of opportunity to make a change. If he flubs it, then we’ll lose it all and simply follow our mother country England into the same political quicksand of misery that they have over there.
Quentin
I think the main issue is that the Libs announced a backflip on Paris, and also on our national climate agreements. Voters don’t seem to be concerned.
They then announced a policy to implement nuclear energy into Australia’s energy mix.
I thought this would galvanise the ALP vote, but it didn’t. Clearly voters aren’t concerned, or worse don’t care.
Perhaps the fact Dutton announced his nuclear policy a week or so after Beetaloo got approved caught the ALP off guard. I’m not sure but I suspect Dutton knew exactly what he was doing.
In the lead up to late June, the ALP actually had quite a good story to tell, and then the WA Senator fiasco struck, and July was bogged down with her. Of course, the media focused on her, and ran all sorts of lovey-dovey set pieces making her look wonderful and the ALP, of course, evil.
We all know she will leave parliament quietly on 30-Jun-2028.
As a result, the ALP vote tailored down during July. This is a natural consequence of division and hysterical negative headlines. 39% Primary on Newspoll, of all polls, is a big issue, as opposed to a 39% primary on Morgan for example, which very few rate on this site.
Where to from here is the main issue.
People won’t say no to tax cuts and while it was sensible to revise them, it doesn’t do anything directly to address rising cost of living, housing costs/supply while at the same time overseeing runaway levels of immigration. The govt gives the impression it is asleep at the wheel and powerless or maybe just unwilling to do much that really improves the lot of ordinary people.
Watching Harris & Walz speaking at US rallies magnifies the fact that our pollies are almost devoid of charisma. Words mean a great deal, and the delivery of them, more so. Albanese & Dutton lack the charismatic authority of a Harris, a Walz, a Shapiro, and a Bashear. Further, Albanese is running a small-target strategy, mindful that it’s rare for a first-term government not to serve a second term. But the big issue is surely the cost of living. Despite who’s responsible for it – be it the previous government, the RBA, world events, or Dutton – it’s hitting the electorate hard and it will naturally hold the government of the day responsible for it. And while the Government will probably be returned, it must do something to stop the rot.
Ninda 88 yeah but they also the problem with the nuclear power argument is that Labor hasn’t really attacked it yet like you say that but it hasn’t galvanized ALP vote but it also hasn’t done well for Peter sure he’s nearly at 40% but anything could happen I have a feeling that Labor isn’t going to attack the nuclear policy just yet I think they’re gonna try and get as much renewables as they can done and when they do the campaign they’d be like it’s basically they’re going to do what they did that Peter did to um the voice like remember three weeks ago we were all thinking that Donald Trump was going to win the election do I wish labourperforming better yes but it’s Helen better than what Queensland Labor is at the moment also it’s been a pretty quiet period none of the things that people thought that was going to make the lnp rise up more like the unions I thought they were gonna honestly I thought it was going to be 51 to 49 for the lnp for a couple of weeks ago because of union problems I do think Anthony Albert needs he needs to go on the attack tack and the nuclear power one is really good to attack with also his health portfolio because the good news is for Anthony is that Peter is a not a good opposition leader remember when Tony Abbott got in and nearly got government in a year Peter has an even one news poll and I’m not talking about Roy Morgan resolved with the other ones who knows what happens I’m just saying we all need to calm down so this is being too long and that goes for badthinker Alabama and the rest of those
Been Theresays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 10:30 pm
Beemer you know no one here thinks the disabled don’t matter.
To try say the someone Labor on here said they don’t is an outrageous slur!
Don’t worry about your mealy mouthed someone’s on holidays and someone disagreed with a royal commission’s findings.
You’re talking through your backside, just lucky for you and me that I have been choice with my words.
You need to apologise!
================================================
While i don’t think any Australian politician would think the disabled don’t matter, at least i hope. Certainly there are reports that Trump has said even worse about disabled people in the USA. Hopefully no one here has the same ideas as Trump on this. Though unfortunately Trump even has his supporters in Australia.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/fred-trump-disabled-people-1.7288890
Someone from the previous thread posted comments from Bob Brown that the Greens are now “where Labor was 100 years ago”.
Either that is a misquote, or Bob Brown is a poor student of history:
– the first Labor Prime minister held office 120 years ago
– the first Labor HoR majority was 114 years ago.
Entropy
While i don’t think any Australian politician would think the disabled don’t matter, at least i hope. Certainly there are reports that Trump has said even worse about disabled people in the USA. Hopefully no one here has the same ideas as Trump on this. Though unfortunately Trump even has his supporters in Australia.
———–
Speak of the devils look who pops up because no one said it was an Australian politician.
We’ll see how the polls travel out over the next week, as there are several coming up;
* Monday PM – Roy Morgan (around 5PM’ish)
* Tues AM – Essential Report (via the Guardian newspaper, but check the Essential website)
* Fri lunchtime – YouGov (possibly)
* Sun or Mon – Freshwater Strategy (probably Sunday evening via the A.F.R.)
* Monday week – another Roy Morgan
Lars – ahoy! Another sub 30 for you to digest.
Mavis/Kirsdarke/Been There/Lordbain – I’ll swing by for the QLD election. Catch up in two months! Keep well, keep up your posts and once again thanks for kind messages. Ciao.
The most popular premier in Australia, Mali, agrees with Dutton on nuclear. That’s not helping. And SA built a proton beam centre which has ridiculously thick concrete walls. It seems we wont actually get the treatment machine because SA Health stuffed up (and both sides of parliament) so why not use the $500m building for nuclear waste. 🙂
Ninda88 have a good couple months break remember anything can happen believe me I live in Queensland there were times where the where where the liberal Queensland party was going to win at just be happy that it’s not Labor 43 to liberal 57 goodnight everyone hopefully no one does anything stupid remember 10 months is a long time in politics
You can agree about nuclear, in a perfect world it exists as a very good option.
In the normal world it’s expensive, takes a long time and is deadly.
Mali is looking at the perfect world, don’t misquote him.
Q: The most popular premier in Australia, Mali, agrees with Dutton on nuclear…
Did I miss something..from the ABC recently:
South Australia’s premier has comprehensively rejected the future use of nuclear power generators in Australia, saying the “completely uneconomic” technology had already been thoroughly investigated and dismissed.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, August 11, 2024 at 11:12 pm
Entropy
While i don’t think any Australian politician would think the disabled don’t matter, at least i hope. Certainly there are reports that Trump has said even worse about disabled people in the USA. Hopefully no one here has the same ideas as Trump on this. Though unfortunately Trump even has his supporters in Australia.
———–
Speak of the devils look who pops up because no one said it was an Australian politician.
==================================================
This is what i actually said in reply to you 8 days ago. So assume this is post you are still unhappy with me over?
Entropysays:
Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 12:44 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 12:32 pm
C@tmomma
Mexicanbeemer,
There has been no silence. Responsible Ministers had a press conference and outlined the process by which they will immediately accept some recommendations and work through the implementation of others. That the Prime Minister of the country doesn’t dance to your tune is essentially irrelevant to the matter at hand. The relevant Ministers ared dealing with it and he’s at Garma.
———————
Albo has not posted about it on his social media but had time to post about a new candidate.
===============================================
If you have a problem with the Government response to this. You should by all means voice what they have done wrong in your opinion. The relevant Government Ministers have announced their response and the actions they will take. The whole attack line that Albo didn’t front the press conference with his Ministers or make any comment on what his Ministers said is just that, an irrelevant attack line. It changes nothing about the actual Governments response to this. Which they have clearly announced via the relevant Ministers.
Entropys
Speak of the devils look who pops up because no one said it was an Australian politician.
==================================================
This is what i actually said in reply to you 8 days ago. So assume this is post you are still unhappy with me over?
———————–
Thats for finding the quotes but i’m not upset with you and C@T because we are talking about government and its polling.
Albo has posted 5 social media posts about his childcare worker pay rise but not one about the disability royal commission and this is where government is playing too safe and missing chances to be braver because giving childcare workers a pay rise isn’t hard policy but tackling deep sheeted social disadvantage is hard policy and if done well might give government the wins it needs to break out of its soft polling.
Will the inconsistent bouncy newspoll in the federal lib/nats combined primary vote , help Peter Dutton survive as leader after October this year . If the Lib/nats combined primary vote still below 40% as every other time it never will get into 40%’s, there still another 3 newspoll to go can not see the lib/nats combined primary vote improving around October , it will be around 35/36% come October
In the resolve poll
only state which is helping the federal Lib/nats is no surprise QLD
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Typically slim Monday pickings.
Here’s David Crowe’s take on the latest Resolve poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-mark-down-labor-on-economic-management-after-rba-rates-call-20240809-p5k11o.html
Summing up the latest Newspoll results, Simon Benson says that minority rule is feared as the Coalition rises and Labor falls.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-minority-rule-feared-as-coalition-rises-and-labor-falls/news-story/896ff7aceeb35fc9f84dffbd6c19a9f7?amp=
Benson says that we should forget an early election, given these numbers.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/newspoll-no-political-dividend-for-anthony-albanese-despite-throwing-billions-at-cost-of-living/news-story/8fc8f579b7d46aee9ce7b266b99489b0?amp=
The reliance on interest rates to reduce demand is hugely unfair – and it is lacking in effectiveness, writes Ross Gittins who says that maybe only a recession will fix macroeconomic management.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/maybe-only-a-recession-will-fix-macroeconomic-management-20240811-p5k1gn.html
Sean Kelly provides us with an interesting discussion on decision making, compromise and the price of a life.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-price-of-a-life-don-t-tell-me-at-all-costs-20240809-p5k138.html
Major broadcasters have sought legal advice arguing the federal government has the power to ban wagering logos on sporting team jerseys and around stadiums, as the political fallout from anything less than a total ban grows. Free TV, the lobby group that acts for Nine Entertainment, Seven West Media and Network Ten owner Paramount, has enlisted broadcast and competition law experts from Sydney firm Quay Law Partners after the government argued only the states had the power to ban ads on jerseys and on signs around football grounds.
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/networks-seek-legal-advice-as-gambling-signs-evade-ad-ban-20240811-p5k1fu
The political divide over housing endures as the Greens challenge the new minister to reconsider the government’s policies, including a rent freeze and more public housing funding. The political divide over housing endures as the Greens challenge the new minister to reconsider the government’s policies, including a rent freeze and more public housing funding.
https://michaelwest.com.au/no-reset-for-greens-labor-deadlock-over-housing-crisis/
“Australia has done better than Britain in resisting demands to subdivide our country into victims and oppressors. But we have to keep working at it. Beware those among us who would wish to destroy that unity: hate preachers in western Sydney, the Greens and so on”, says Alexander Downer.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/australia-is-more-united-than-britain-but-there-are-bitter-lesson-from-englands-riots/news-story/a74389898d64d54b2180e01a827364b1
Facing the possibility of a hostile Trump administration, global scientists and analysts are breathing a sigh of relief at the reinvigorated Democratic campaign, reports Nick O’Malley.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-harris-walz-waltz-prompts-relief-among-climate-activists-20240808-p5k0np.html
They called him ‘Tampon Tim’ as an insult. It backfired, says Jacqui Maley.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/they-called-him-tampon-tim-as-an-insult-it-backfired-20240809-p5k121.html
The narrative of victimhood has been increasingly adopted by the right. Donald Trump has appointed himself victim in chief, writes George Brandis.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/if-trump-wins-it-s-because-he-s-called-out-the-last-acceptable-prejudice-20240809-p5k13a.html
Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan take us inside Trump’s worst three weeks of the 2024 campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/from-bad-to-worse-inside-trump-s-worst-three-weeks-of-the-2024-campaign-20240811-p5k1hc.html
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/harris-leads-trump-in-three-key-states-after-a-year-of-biden-s-polls-struggle-20240811-p5k1fz.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Mark David
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Joe Benke
Spooner
From the US
Good morning everyone
Another “meh” Newspoll result for the Government. They aren’t at quite at the “Danger! Will Robinson!” point, but they’ve got to be a bit concerned.
The Teals have muddied the waters a little bit, but it remains the case that the voters who Labor needs to court in order to remain in government are the 30-50 year olds of suburban Australia. These voters are primarily motivated by their own hip pockets, but we have also seen them respond to the issue of border control/migration policy.
Right now, there’s a lot about the Albo Government’s brand that isn’t that appealing to this consituency:
– anticipated falls in interest rates have not materialised, and the Governor of the Reserve Bank
continues to make noises suggesting that they might go up before they come down;
– inflation remains uncomfortably high, particularly in relation to house prices and rents;
– messy immigration issues leading to the two ministers responsible being effectively demoted;
– a sense among the general public that uncontrolled numbers of migrants are flooding into the
country and are driving up house prices and rents;
– a big unfunded pay rise for child care workers which, as far as I understand it, isn’t going to have any
downward impact on child care fees (which would undoubtedly be popular out in the ‘burbs);
– lots of unpleasant stuff in the media about the Victorian branch of the CFMEU and now the Victorian
branch of the TWU as well; and
– a sense that the Government in general, and Albanese in particular, are weak and lacking in resolve: something that is illustrated by the fact that, having gone in very hard on the Voice referendum, he now seems to be backing away from Indigenous issues at a rapid rate of knots.
All of this adds up to an image of Labor at its worst in the eyes of swinging voters. That is, Labor as a party that is all about helping various vested interests – unionised labour, Indigenous people, welfare recipients, ethnic groups – at the expense of everyone else. Yes this perception is unfair to a considerable extent, but so what. Votes cast in ignorance are as effective as informed votes: especially in swinging seats.
Australians aged between 30 and 50 have spent most of their adult lives living under Coalition governments during times when the economy was going well. They inherently trust the Coalition to look after the economy for them, and that’s a barrier that Labor is going to have to overcome for the foreseeable future. Chalmers was doing a good job at getting over the barrier, but he has been relatively invisible since the budget, except for popping up to have an argument with Michele Bullock which – seeing as it appears that he personally chose her for the job – doesn’t look all that great.
Can Labor actually lose the upcoming election? The Teals might provide a bit of a protective barrier (but their support can’t be guaranteed, especially if Labor ends up with significantly less than 50 per cent of the 2PP). Otherwise, It’s a question of whether or not Labor’s poor performance trumps the electorate’s inherent desire to give governments two terms.
It’s going to be close.
Coalition PV has hit 39% before on Newspoll. 2PP has been 50-50 before on Newspoll.
Move on.
Have a great day all.
Cheers
The advantage federal Labor had got , there are quite a few who are campaigners, compared to the federal lib/nats.
Peter Dutton is not a campaigner , the federal lib/nats have to keep him hidden and away as much as possible from Liberal party safe and marginal seats . Only very safe Liberal Party held seats where Peter Dutton will be in
Sussan Ley same as Petter Dutton
The only political campaigner the federal Liberal party has is not a good one Angus Taylor LOL
The rest such as Ted O’Brien, Paul Fetcher , Andrew Hastie are out of their league
Scott: there was a time in parts of the blogosphere when, in order to get around censorship rules on some sites, “campaigner” used to be used by posters as a synonym for a shorter word also starting with the letter “c.”
In that context, your post of 7.28am reads rather amusingly. Except that I should suspect that many of the Laborite posters on PB would feel that Dutton, as well as Taylor and others, are a bunch of seasoned campaigners. Right old campaigners actually.