Time for a new thread, but with not much to report – so the weekly Roy Morgan poll gets a rare guernsey. This week the pollster has Labor ahead 51.5-48.5 on both its respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures, respectively comparing with 50.5-49.5 and 51-49 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (down one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1655.
Two items of preselection news:
• The Nationals have preselected Gunnedah mayor Jamie Chaffey to succeed Mark Coulton when he retires from his rural New South Wales seat of Parkes at the next election. Chaffey won a local party ballot on Saturday from a field of three.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports five nominees for Liberal National Party preselection for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of veteran member Warren Entsch: Alana McKenna, a “local aviation identity” who has Entsch’s endorsement; Sam Brayshaw, a geologist said to be supported by “far north Queensland conservative establishment figures Deirdre and Colin Ford”; local branch secretary Darcy Sanders; Jeremy Neal, a former Cairns councillor; and Margaret Milutinovic, who promotes herself as a “financial goddess”.
It’s easy being a critic. A lot harder proposing workable solutions. 😐
My god. Roy Morgan is predicting a landslide win to Labor next election! Get out the Pol Roger Reserve and let’s party!
Seriously, what on earth are we to make of the constantly shifting Roy Morgan poll? As I always say, whether it is showing Labor ahead or the Libs ahead, we are probably best off ignoring it altogether.
Greens 12% (down one)
Labor 30.5% (steady)
Those here persistently and insistently crapping on Labor will just have to try harder I guess. 😐
#weatheronPB
Easy blended greys,
soft, contoured, with room to move,
the clouds have returned.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/super-sized-rate-cuts-on-horizon-after-90-billion-sharemarket-rout-20240805-p5jzj9.html
I bet the GLNP will find a way to blame Labor for that too. 😐
What morgan poll and other opinion polling shows with the federal lib/nats combined primary vote stuck around the36%-37% after the 2022 federal election despite the political advantage for the federal Lib/nats
The federal Lib/nats are not any better under Peter Dutton than they were under Scott Morrison, and even the federal liberal party change leaders in October or before this year end , they are not going to improve the lib/nats combined party vote by that much.
A lot of noise and theater, polls stay the same, the Greens make fools of themselves and the Liberals go further down the rabbit hole. That has been the last two years
first up, it’s Morgan so jump on their bouncy castle with a grain of salt
The ‘other’ vote is still at 32.5%, higher than Labor’s pretty Anemic primary of 30.5%. You wouldn’t exactly say Labor or the Coalition have inspiring support on these figures, the electorate quite rightly seems to be pretty ‘meh’
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Shane Wright and Millie Muroi write that home buyers could be delivered a super-sized interest rate cut before Christmas to protect the domestic economy from a US-led recession after the Australian sharemarket suffered its biggest fall since the depths of the pandemic.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/super-sized-rate-cuts-on-horizon-after-90-billion-sharemarket-rout-20240805-p5jzj9.html
Tensions triggered by the war in Gaza, which Australian intelligence officials say played a significant role in the new threat assessment, are ratcheting up the temperature, writes Matthew Knott. He says that the increased possibility of lone-wolf terrorist attacks, as outlined by intelligence officials to reporters at a briefing in Canberra yesterday, helps explain why Australia’s top spy agency, ASIO, has raised the terrorism threat level to “probable”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-person-keeping-asio-awake-at-night-20240805-p5jzne.html
Social media is behind the alarming rise in extremism among young people that prompted Australia’s official terror threat level to be raised, experts say. Gus McCubbin reports that political pollster Kos Samaras has said it was very unlikely the trend would become a significant factor at the federal election, due by May, because fringe groups would be drowned out by the compulsory voting system.
https://www.afr.com/politics/frustration-confusion-and-andrew-tate-driving-extremism-in-the-young-20240805-p5jzk6
Tony Burke’s appointment as Home Affairs Minister is bizarre. He was among the most disgraceful politicians in responding to the Hamas terrorist atrocities, whines Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/pms-terror-alert-undercut-by-weasel-words-and-feeble-politics/news-story/94276465e328c6e16d999a6199127548
While June temporary entrant figures point to a fall in net migration, other factors show that it may be too early for the Government to celebrate yet, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/june-temporary-entrant-figures-point-to-fall-in-net-migration,18839
Peter Dutton’s promise that his party will deliver “reliability, not blackouts” under a Liberal-National Coalition government may be a slick slogan, but history tells a different story, writes Parker McKenzie who says Dutton and the Liberal Party are going to war with facts and science.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/08/05/blackouts-science-peter-dutton
Insiders thought it was a “joke” for PwC to both advise the government on tax reform while helping clients exploit those reforms. One meeting sent the Tax Office over the edge, reveals the AFR’s Edmund Tundros.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/the-emails-that-almost-destroyed-pwc-australia-20240802-p5jyv1
Elizabeth Knight thinks a total ban on gambling ads is too big a punt. She says, “Forget problem gamblers, it is the commercial television networks in particular that are addicted to the revenue from bookie ads, and what government has an appetite for upsetting major media companies so close to a federal election?”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/hooked-why-a-total-ban-on-gambling-ads-is-too-big-a-punt-20240805-p5jzhq.html
“The majority of voters want gambling advertising gone. It’s time for Albanese to heed their calls”, urges Zoe Daniel in an op-ed.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/05/the-majority-of-voters-want-gambling-advertising-gone-its-time-for-albanese-to-heed-their-calls
Public school principals’ jobs have been radically reshaped by the demands of a competitive and punitive funding system, according to a new study. Noel Towell tells us that school leaders have told researchers they feel more like grant appliers and fundraisers than educators as they fight over government money for their schools in competitive tendering processes.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/school-principals-say-they-feel-more-like-grant-appliers-than-educators-in-fight-for-funding-20240805-p5jzni.html
Max Maddison reports that Liberal Hornsby Mayor Philip Ruddock has accused property developers supported by “senior party members” of orchestrating his demise after he was ousted in a preselection vote last night.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/philip-ruddock-ousted-as-hornsby-mayor-points-finger-at-property-developer-interests-20240805-p5jzol.html
The Allan government wants Melbourne to grow upwards and not outwards with more homes in existing suburbs, but a new report says avoiding urban sprawl is impossible. Josh Fordon and Broede Carmody writes that the study from the Australian Population Research Institute argues opening up greenfield housing on Melbourne’s outer edge remains the only realistic short-term option to absorb an influx of new migrants and deal with the affordability crisis.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-will-have-to-keep-sprawling-to-house-migrants-20240805-p5jzmf.html
A federal government agency has warned that training colleges could collapse, and domestic students could be left out of pocket under Labor’s controversial plan to cap international student numbers. Daniella White reports that in a paper released yesterday, Australian National University higher education expert Andrew Norton said it was clear the government had not thought through how the caps would be implemented by education providers or the government itself.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/alarm-from-within-as-colleges-face-collapse-under-labor-s-foreign-student-crackdown-20240802-p5jysu.html
Hundreds of jobs could be on the line as part of a major restructure of TAFE NSW after a wide-ranging review found the reach and impact of the country’s largest training organisation was declining. Staff were last week told up to 200 non-teaching roles were under review as part of proposed changes to TAFE NSW’s operating model.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hundreds-of-jobs-under-threat-at-tafe-amid-sector-overhaul-20240802-p5jyrs.html
Alan Kohler writes about the end of the tech bubble and the rise of the humanoid machines.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/08/05/alan-kohler-end-tech-bubble-rise-humanoid-machines
Did the US Federal Reserve board make a fateful mistake last week that risks pushing the US economy into an avoidable recession? Financial markets seem to think so, with the US sharemarket falling nearly 2 per cent on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was down 2.43 per cent and the mega techs were down nearly 3 per cent. The Australian sharemarket has followed suit, plunging by about 3 per cent on Monday morning, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sharemarkets-gripped-by-panic-amid-fears-the-fed-just-made-a-big-mistake-20240805-p5jzgk.html
The murder of three little English girls attending a Taylor-Swift-themed dance class is erroneously pinned on a migrant by social media and causes nationwide rioting. Welcome to the new world disorder that has beset England just weeks after the election of a Labour government was supposed to provide a reset to cleanse the country of years of mismanagement, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/english-riots-social-media-and-the-running-sore-of-british-politics-20240805-p5jzjm.html
Tim Soutphommasane wonders if the UK’s rookie PM can stop the riots without adding fuel to the fires. He says that beneath the clamour of summer disorder, there is an ideological contest forming about how Britain can be made great again. One that pits a reformist patriotism of the centre left against a nationalist populism of the far right. It is a contest between renewal and disruption. Between those who believe politics be remade from within, and those who are giving up on the system. At least as it’s playing out in the UK, social democratic patriotism is shaping up as the great hope of moderate democracy.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/can-a-rookie-pm-stop-the-riots-without-adding-fuel-to-the-fires-20240805-p5jzi0.html
Jo Mulhall posits that there is a deep well of poison behind this racist violence. Those fuelling and perpetrating it must be held to account.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/05/far-right-riots-legitimate-anger-racist-violence
Yes, Kamala-phoria has entranced the Democrats and re-energised the base. But Donald Trump is far from beaten, and the election itself is only part of the story, writes Peter Hartcher. He says Trump is a political wrecking ball. He will try to wreck Harris through the electoral system and, if that doesn’t work, he’ll wreck the electoral system. To expect otherwise is an illusion.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/kamala-harris-has-just-one-route-to-power-donald-trump-has-two-20240805-p5jzhv.html
While the Left has received criticism for Trump’s rise in popularity, it’s important to look at the true nature of the Republican Party and its agenda of inequality, writes Victoria Fielding.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/blaming-the-left-for-trump-is-victim-blaming,18840
Trump has been left rattled by size of Harris’ crowds, writes The New York Times’ Shawn McCreesh.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-s-rattling-trump-the-size-of-harris-crowds-20240805-p5jzha.html
Trump has picked a pointless fight with Georgia Republicans, and it could cost him, says George Chidi.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/trump-atlanta-rally-brian-kemp-republicans
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Matt Golding
Paul Dorin
Cathy Wilcox
A gif from Glen Le Lievre
https://x.com/i/status/1820338954509447629
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Spooner
From the US
Cagle cartoons https://cagle.com/cartoons/
Its not just morgan poll which bounces , newspoll, redbridge , resolve has also been bouncy with the federal lib/nats combined primary vote
one poll shows39% the next shows 36%
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-drive/terror-threat-level-asio-australia-extremism/104186036
3/ 5, probable.
… be it offshore, nearing shore or onshore, I can’t say I am surprised. Centrist, blue Libs lite, shit lite’s words and inaction on the Holy Land can’t be considered congruous without the stance on Ukraine, or half-hearted VTP&E, without TRC/ makarata, treaty/ sovereignty/ reparations.
It’s not like BRICs, non-aligned, America and allies and partners and friends is something new. Or that the Arabs liked the Ottomans or Nazis better than the Poms, be it WW1, WW2, Cold War, GWOT, WW5 IVL.
‘From the Med Sea to the Euphrates River … Albo’ seems to have forgotten Australia these days is cosmopolitan, multi-cultural, no longer just white or black.
Next will be the whispered rolling out bits and pieces on radicalisation, lone wolfs, …
When it comes to public safety and national security he’s just opened up another front for His Majesty’s loyal opp, full of shit as they may be, together with all shit or shite.
And so at the next Aus fed gov election he’ll be wedged by opportunity/ cost of living and public safety and national security. The attack lines don’t need AI to write themselves.
Let’s see a big target approach for 2025, education, environment, healthcare, human rights (may be take the cue for UN, UNSC, UNGA, ICJ, ICC … rather than Zionist settlers’ Apartheid regime, and there’s also FoI, whistleblowers, journos/ activists to heed for a policy update), infrastructure (Comms, energy, housing, transport, water)!
Risks/ threats are there to be honored, not wished away, be it governance, powershift, climate, inequality, health …
First though, reflect on values and principles, long forgotten. Before shit lite forgot about being progressive.
Then go to promises for advancing Australia, fair.
Actually close the policy, competency, services loop.
Somehow the likes of ‘… Albo’, Copenhagen Penny W(r)ong, Richard Marles, Mark Dreyfus won’t do, may be Don Farrell to the rescue …
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:09 am
A lot of noise and theater, polls stay the same, the Greens make fools of themselves and the Liberals go further down the rabbit hole. That has been the last two years.
________
Since the referendum I think. But seriously there is a slow creep up for the Coalition at the expense of Labor. I can no longer say it has flatlined. The Greens haven’t shifted though.
Everyone is holding steady. It’s all in the MOE. Labor still has time to offer real solutions to renters at both state and federal level to boost their primary vote. Imagine Labor, Liberal to Green in Brisbane might go Labor next with the right policy settings.
Message to BW: I note that you keep bringing up the crime wave in Alice Springs (and, for that matter, Broome, Townsville and a few other places) as representing something profound about the state of relations between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people. I would caution against over-interpreting such events.
A week or two ago, c@t posted about the global trend among testosterone-fuelled young men of stealing cars, videoing themselves doing ridiculous and dangerous stunts in them, and then posting those videos on social media sites as part of a sort of unofficial contest. It would seem that young Indigenous men in some towns are very caught up in this stuff. But it’s not just Indigenous youths: here in Tassie, where the Indigenous people are generally more middle class than pretty much anywhere else in the country, it’s young non-Indigenous men who are leading the charge.
It’s an awful trend. The sort of cars that the young men are looking for are the more expensive, sporty types with powerful security systems. So, increasingly, they are breaking into homes and terrorising the residents until they hand over their car keys, which I’m sure is a devastating experience for those who are subjected to it. Another bad aspect is that these young men are attempting ever more daring stunts in the cars, leading to serious injuries and sometimes multiple deaths (because there are usually several people in the car).
A further issue we have seen in Alice Springs is that this activity can involve competition among young men who come from different communities (or “nations” if you like) that have been in a state of enmity for perhaps tens of thousands of years but quite often find themselves living together in the large towns built by the European colonists (often because they were dragged from their traditional country in the nineteenth century and forced to live together on missions). So, when a young man dies in one of these crazy pranks, their relatives are likely to blame someone from another community and seek to retaliate. (The traditional view of the world of most Indigenous communities didn’t really encompass the concept of “accidental death.”) It would seem that attempted vigilantism against a particular young man who is said to have been responsible for the death of another has been at the heart of a lot of the trouble in Alice Springs in recent months.
Is the root cause of this problem race, or is it simply the propensity for under-occupied young men to engage in dangerous and often criminal acts of showing off? You say that these young Indigenous men have no respect for our institutions, which I have no doubt is the case, but this is equally true of young non-Indigenous men who regularly engage in criminal behaviour. I haven’t been to Alice for a fair while, but my impression is that elders and other older Indigenous residents are not demonstrating a lack of respect for authority: on the contrary, some of them have been quite supportive of curfews and other measures, and have even called for the police presence in the town to be stepped up. It does not seem to be the case that these young men are consciously sparing Indigenous people from the effects of their criminal activities.
Notwithstanding some of the myths around Robin Hood and Ned Kelly, criminals are generally not revolutionaries. I believe that the best response to a crime wave of this type is generally going to be a two-pronged strategy of (a) using the criminal justice system to come down hard on the worst ofenders; and (b) try to divert under-occupied young men into other activities: ideally employment, but also sport and, in the case of young Indigenous men, participation in traditional cultural practices under the guidance of elders. But I’m inclined to disagree with Indigenous leaders (and some non-Indigenous leaders) that a future state of full reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in which young men can be fully reacquainted with traditional cultural practices will solve the problem entirely, reducing crime rates and reducing the appalling rate of imprisonment of Indigenous young men. Quite a bit of that sort of thinking can be found in the Uluru Statement, and I’d love for it to be true, but I fear that traditional culture will always struggling to compete with the allure of social media and, in future, AI driven artificial reality and god only knows what else. And improved social justice can help to reduce the rate of crime driven by poverty and inequality, but I’m not at all sure that much of the crime in Alice Springs at the moment is truly being driven by those things.
I’ve got more to say, but this post is too long as it is so I’ll stop. My apologies.
Thank you, BK.
‘Tensions triggered by the war in Gaza, which Australian intelligence officials say played a significant role in the new threat assessment, are ratcheting up the temperature, writes Matthew Knott. He says that the increased possibility of lone-wolf terrorist attacks, as outlined by intelligence officials to reporters at a briefing in Canberra yesterday, helps explain why Australia’s top spy agency, ASIO, has raised the terrorism threat level to “probable”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-person-keeping-asio-awake-at-night-20240805-p5jzne.html‘
——————–
Dutton and Bandt need to pull their heads in.
‘meher baba says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:36 am
…’
——————
I agree that there is a general trend among young men.
This trend could also be influencing what is happening in places like the Alice.
However there is another element in Alice that is different.
This difference matters and goes directly to the points I was making with respect to the unresolved issues to do with decolonization in situ.
Griff says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:27 am
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:09 am
A lot of noise and theater, polls stay the same, the Greens make fools of themselves and the Liberals go further down the rabbit hole. That has been the last two years.
________
Since the referendum I think. But seriously there is a slow creep up for the Coalition at the expense of Labor. I can no longer say it has flatlined. The Greens haven’t shifted though.
——————
Before the referendum
The Lib/nats combined primary average 36-37%
After the referendum , cost of living and other political advantage for the federal Lib/nats
The Lib/nats combined primary average 36-37%
Ten per cent of total employment in Victoria is now in the state government public service.
Next Retail figures will be very interesting let’s see if a spending blowout is happening thanks to fed Labor government tax cuts.
Scott says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:47 am
Griff says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:27 am
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:09 am
A lot of noise and theater, polls stay the same, the Greens make fools of themselves and the Liberals go further down the rabbit hole. That has been the last two years.
________
Since the referendum I think. But seriously there is a slow creep up for the Coalition at the expense of Labor. I can no longer say it has flatlined. The Greens haven’t shifted though.
——————
Before the referendum
The Lib/nats combined primary average 36-37%
After the referendum , cost of living and other political advantage for the federal Lib/nats
The Lib/nats combined primary average 36-37%
________
I think there is a tick up to 38% now. With One Nation rising as well. Polling has shifted from the likelihood of a bare majority to minority. We shall see what it looks like once an election campaign sharpens the electorate’s attention.
Apart from opinion polling ,there has been federal by-elections since the 2022 federal election
2 have been in Liberal safe seat and a very safe QLD LNP seat and 1 marginal Labor held seat
primary votes
Federal Labor government received swings to them in the by-elections , no swing against them
Federal Liberal party received swing against them (include safe Liberal party held seat) and received to them in the very safe QLD LNP seat
Scott says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:57 am
Apart from opinion polling ,there has been federal by-elections since the 2022 federal election
2 have been in Liberal safe seat and a very safe QLD LNP seat and 1 marginal Labor held seat
primary votes
Federal Labor government received swings to them in the by-elections , no swing against them
Federal Liberal party received swing against them (include safe Liberal party held seat) and received to them in the very safe QLD LNP seat
__________
Pre or post referendum? This is likely to be the sentinel event of this parliamentary term.
Griff says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:56 am
We shall see what it looks like once an election campaign sharpens the electorate’s attention.
————————————-
Yes, agree
TISM – The Phillip Ruddock Blues
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWIXZzg2KJI
Then again, may be shit lite will surprise us all.
Public safety rather than national security.
Ersatz fICAC/ CIC/ NACC to the rescue on haves/ merchant kings/ warlords, their lobbyists/ courtiers/ acolytes even, rather than the have nots/ serfs? (Protestors have been right, be it GWOT/ eyeRaq, Vietnam, …, ‘… Albo’ might even still remember some of that.)
Robodebt.
ATO equivalent.
…
See Gladystan Borisjiklian leave SingTel Optus, as in ICAC NSW and appeal: “Seriously corrupt”.
May be even do something on FOI, whistleblowers, journos, activists …
Apparently when the gov does it, it must be legal/ lawful?
Right now, I am looking forward to the shit lite Aus fed gov in minority, with minor parties and independents in power. How’s that direction of country looking …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/06/labor-criticised-for-meetings-with-betting-companies-ahead-of-decision-on-gambling-ads
Labor criticised for meetings with betting companies ahead of decision on gambling ads
I mean, its not like Labor has been receiving donations from the gambling industry… im sure it was just strong arguments that swayed them 🙂
Griff says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:59 am
Pre or post referendum? This is likely to be the sentinel event of this parliamentary term.
———————————–
Aston by- election ( Safe seat )Liberal party was held 6 months before last year referendum
Dunkley by-election (Marginal seat)labor party, March this year, majority electorate voted no in the referendum
BW: “However there is another element in Alice that is different.
This difference matters and goes directly to the points I was making with respect to the unresolved issues to do with decolonization in situ.”
——————————————————————————
Let’s agree to disagree about that. Personally, I hope your’re right and I’m wrong, as problems arising from racial injustice – intractable as they are – are probably easier to solve than those fuelled by the combination of too much spare time and too much testosterone.
With a sample size of 1655, the margin of error for this Morgan poll is about 2.5%, so jumping around by a percentage point or two is within margin of error. It’s the trend that matters.
Is Golding referring to this from 20+ years ago? (Wow.)
Terrorism kit so dumb it’s a winner
https://www.smh.com.au/national/terrorism-kit-so-dumb-its-a-winner-20030410-gdgkst.html
Making statements such as “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free.” doesn’t encourage antisemitism or terrorists.
Really.
It doesn’t.
Not all.
Why would you think it would?
Time for another protest that ignores 7 October 2023.
What would ASIO know?
https://newpolitics.com.au/2024/08/05/is-the-nacc-living-up-to-expectations/
Rocket attack on US Coalition forces in Iraq…
Pueo says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 8:20 am
We still have ours. Is it as collectible as the Back in Black mug?
NSW Government directs workers to return to office… once again demonstrating just how Blue NSW Labor is…
meher baba @ #2 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 6:40 am
What are we to make of a mind that thinks that a poll that moves around within the standard margin of error for its sample size is obviously worse than those which hardly move at all. A mind that thinks that polls “predict” election results. We might well assume that such a mind has little useful knowledge of basic statistics. Such a mind might think that systemic racism is unknown in Australian police forces.
😀
The Museum of Australian Democracy might be interested in it
In the last hour Tim Walz has gone from outsider to favourite in the Democratic VP Candidate betting markets. Interesting
RocketRocket: “In the last hour Tim Walz has gone from outsider to favourite in the Democratic VP Candidate betting markets. Interesting”
—————————————————————————
Disturbing from my PoV, as I think he might be a bit too far left to make a good fit.
But, if he is chosen, it would seem that it will be as a result of a pretty thorough vetting process. So there will no doubt be good reasons for it that perhaps we will never fully learn.
yabba: “What are we to make of a mind that thinks that a poll that moves around within the standard margin of error for its sample size is obviously worse than those which hardly move at all. A mind that thinks that polls “predict” election results. We might well assume that such a mind has little useful knowledge of basic statistics. Such a mind might think that systemic racism is unknown in Australian police forces.”
——————————————————————————–
I’ve never put any poster on ignore, but you’re sorely tempting me.
When interest rates drop before Christmas don’t forget to blame Labor for that too Pied Piper.
Steven Miles Qld premier the AFR are reporting just now is bringing back state owned petrol stations.
Oh Dear.
Sydney( except City of Sydney council) , NSW & Australia maintains its pathetically low standard of design & planning…. for heavens sake outsource it all to European designers/ planners
Funnily enough MB i view Waltz as left enough to cover for Harris more… right leaning historic actions.
Who would you suggest as the VP?
meher baba @ #39 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 9:07 am
Just try logical thinking, based on actual knowledge, for a change, rather than pontification.
meher baba says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 8:16 am
BW: “However there is another element in Alice that is different.
This difference matters and goes directly to the points I was making with respect to the unresolved issues to do with decolonization in situ.”
——————————————————————————
Let’s agree to disagree about that. Personally, I hope your’re right and I’m wrong…’
——————–
No worries.
meher baba
Maybe the thinking is to have Shapiro spend the next three months just in Pennsylvania- as VP candidate he would have to travel around the country.
Because certainly Pennsylvania is the definition of a ‘must win’ state!
yabba: “What are we to make of a mind that thinks that a poll that moves around within the standard margin of error for its sample size is obviously worse than those which hardly move at all. A mind that thinks that polls “predict” election results. We might well assume that such a mind has little useful knowledge of basic statistics.
__________________
What are we to make of a mind that thinks there are no Blue Whales in the Southern Ocean off Australia? A mind that doxxes itself by publishing it’s own name and address on an anonymous blog? We might assume that such a mind is not so brilliant that it can look down on others.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 8:26 am
Making statements such as “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free.” doesn’t encourage antisemitism or terrorists. …’
———————-
Both sides have made genocidal vision statements. Both sides use the Jordan to the Med geographical framing for the vision statement.
Dutton and Bandt have hitched their political carts to one side or the other.
In so doing they are inflaming communalist hatreds and tensions inside Australia.
ASIO has released an increased security warning thereto.
Dutton and Bandt are playing with fire for party political purposes.
Let’s hope that nobody gets physically burnt.
Because plenty of people have already been emotionally burnt by the hatreds and behaviours being stoked up by individuals who should know better.
The Thug and his Toolie: doing it for Australia!
Let’s hope Kamala gets her VP pick right unlike Trump did with ,”crazy cat lady” Vance. They raised 250K for the Harris campaign in 40 minutes yesterday with more to come and they kept Trump off the front pages and social media trends for yet another day. Trump is so unhinged he took a swipe at Georgia Republicans yesterday. You can’t make this stuff up. Get out the popcorn, it’s getting interesting in the USA.
Lordbain: “Funnily enough MB i view Waltz as left enough to cover for Harris more… right leaning historic actions.
Who would you suggest as the VP?”
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In my ideal universe, I’d have liked Amy Klobuchar: also from Minnesota, a centrist, a highly experienced Senator rather than a Governor, and a very smart person.
Otherwise, I would have it very close between Shapiro and Buttigeig, who are clearly the two best talkers, with Walz a close third. Shapiro being Jewish is going to be a problem with the party’s left, but Buttigieg’s sexuality is perhaps going to be an even bigger problem with African-American and Hispanic Democrats (and, while that risk might turn out to be exaggerated, perhaps this crucial election in which one would wish to see that proposition tested) . And Shapiro brings the bonus of his popularity in the key state of Pennsylvania.
So, for me, Shapiro is the no-brainer choice. But we don’t know everything Harris’s team knows: eg, what the choice of Shapiro would really do to the turnout of young and Muslim voters in the key state of Michigan. And many African-American voters aren’t overly fond of Jews either.
Anyway, it can’t be long now before we find out for sure.