The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of Victorian state voting intention has Labor and the Coalition tied on two-party preferred, after the last such poll in June had Labor ahead 55-45. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down four), Coalition 40% (up two) and Greens 12% (down two). The poll was conducted July 23 to August 1 from a sample of 1514. (UPDATE: Full report here).
Two further items of Victorian state electoral news:
• The parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has produced a report into the 2022 election that makes particularly interesting reading after an election conducted amid an unusually febrile atmosphere. It offers a remarkably thorough program of recommendations, including abolishing group voting tickets for the Legislative Council, as has been done everywhere else; addressing the increasing in inappropriate behaviour at voting centres; introducing truth-in-advertising laws; and tightening the election timeline so that nominations close earlier, early voting begins later, and the electoral roll is closed on the day the writs are issued (which the High Court disallowed when the Howard government tried it, but that was without Victoria’s scheme of election day enrolment). The report also recommends further inquiries into transferring certain responsibilities of the VEC, such as enforcing electoral law, to other bodies; reforming the Legislative Council system to counter-balance the likely impact of abolishing group voting tickets on small party representation; and modernising the Electoral Act through a “holistic review”.
• Josh Gordon of The Age reports unsuccessful teal candidate from the November 2022 election are threatening a High Court challenge against the government’s campaign finance laws, arguing they advantaged established parties and violated the implied constitutional right to political communication. Sophie Torney, Melissa Lowe, Nomi Kaltmann and Kate Lardner, who were unsuccessful in their respective bids for Kew, Hawthorn, Caulfield and Mornington, have alerted the government to concerns over a “nominated entity exception” to donations caps, allowing Labor to receive $3.1 million from its Labor Services and Holdings entity and the Liberals to receive $2.5 million from its Cormack Foundation. Donations from entities set up after 2018 were capped at $4320 over the course of a four-year parliamentary term.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
William, in the last para, line 4 you’ve got “rate” where I think you mean “right”.
This is another example of a government running out of steam. From my knowledge of Victoria you have a relatively competent government and an opposition made up of various factions and beliefs. A lot like Queensland where I come from, the opposition is barely electable but is gaining traction just through the time factor. The problem is that ideologically driven liberal / LNP governments can do a lot of damage in a short space . I’m hoping for Victoria’s sake they do not get in on a landslide unlike what is shaping up here in Qld.
I said it last time, and not much has changed since: Allan hasn’t made a single decision that’s been particularly popular in the time she’s been Premier, she’s run screaming from any unfinished business on social policy that Andrews left behind, she’s released a Budget with cuts so brutal it could have come from Kennett or Newman and she’s not managed to sell it any better than those two would have, and a lot of the experience and the talent in the Andrews Ministry walked out the door at the last election. The amount of people I know who really liked Andrews and do not like Allan is huge.
The state Liberals are cooked, but unless the Deeming saga finally getting to trial in a couple of months causes them to lose their newfound discipline again, and unravel, Allan is making it easy as possible for them to Bradbury it in regardless of their flaws.
Being “relatively competent” isn’t reliably enough for any government to stay in power unless the opposition is truly unelectable; if you can’t respond to anything voters are concerned about in a way that makes enough of a difference to be noticed and be well-received (which Andrews never had any problems doing), you risk getting seen as out of touch with ordinary voters and being run down by the opposition.
The one thing Victoria has in common with Queensland here, though, is that the new Premier was the wrong choice in the circumstances – Allan just hasn’t been able to cut it, and in hindsight Andrews should’ve done what it took to make sure either Hennessy or Merlino stayed on through the last election to be a smarter leader-in-waiting.
Oh, my goodness! Calls to abolish Group Ticket Voting. Again. Well, I never. How shocking.
I wonder how much these committees get paid for stating the bleeding obvious over and over and over.
From what I can see from people I know there is visceral anger with the state Labor government. This ranges from:
– A person who is one of many ‘restructured’ out of the Ambulance service but not getting redundancy payments.
– Understaffing of the Police Service – from both officers and police staff
– The Suburban Rail Loop sucking money out of everything else
– A general feeling that Melbourne is getting too hard in live in
– The CFMEU corruption
– Heavy handed renewable energy policy in regional Victoria.
– Several people know Commonwealth Games management who laid off – and those people boast about how big their payouts were – one of them received several months pay for two weeks work.
The reactions range from one person planning not to vote Labor for the first time ever and others even planning to leave the state. If the Liberals can get their act together it could be 1992 all over again. The big question is whether the state government dissatisfaction will flow over into the Federal sphere next year.
Electoral Matters does not recommend Robson Rotation. They discussed it but:
“Recommendation 20: That Robson Rotation not be adopted for ballot papers in
Victoria.”
Ante Meridian: this is actually the first time Electoral Matters has recommended abolishing Group Ticket Voting. In the previous cycle the committee recommended only that the Government create a separate inquiry into the system. The Government then never did it and did nothing about the problem. There was even an absurd situation with in-person witnesses who wanted to talk about Group Ticket Voting not being allowed to do so in that cycle. Yes it is “bleeding obvious” that it must go but it has taken so long to even get to this stage. It is very pleasing that the recommendation is supported by Labor, Coalition and Green members.
Thanks Mavis and Kevin — corrected.
The state election is in November 2026….. Well over 2 years away. Absolutely anything could and will happen by then.
The Libs are completely unelectable in this State. Even the handmaid’s blush when they speak to some of the fundamentalists who have besieged the Vic Liberal Party.
Once an election is imminent – and the blowtorch is put on the opposition, I suspect the polling may differ. At the moment it is just people saying “everything is shite – I hate the government”. I’m not sure too many the swinging voters have locked in their vote yet. Time will tell.
The Libs can’t just rely on people not voting for the ALP. The Greens have a significant vote share in this state.
*The federal ALP made the mistake of believing they won the last federal election rather than concentrating on the fact that the Libs lost it. I almost feel sorry for Labor, their voters get angry and change their vote. Liberal voters are prepared to tolerate a lot, as long as it keeps Labor out.
Meanwhile the state based Lib in-fighting will come to the fore as soon as they look like they have a chance of winning.
Two years is plenty of time for the Libs to sort out the Pesutto created mess and get a new leader and win.
Two years out from an election. A government which has been in power since 2014. Each election providing a larger majority than the last despite a campaign against the “the most unpopular Premier ever – Dictator Dan”, A new and female Premier at the head of a competent, if not exciting government. An orchestrated campaign about crime, criminal gangs (not borne out by statistics) alongside a pay and conditions campaign by Police and Ambulance staff. Outrage peddled by the Murdoch press about a 12 years ago car accident involving then Opppostion Leader Andrews. Nonsense about cost overruns on major projects, traffic disruption from those projects, cost of living pressures, rental shortages, house prices. Therefore no surprise about the gloss is coming off.
But, an opposition that cannot put a policy together because of intense factional in fighting and a potential ministry line up singularly (on present showing) lacking talent and charisma making a change of government unlikely.
On the ground, in my area the Labor members are hard working and seem to be popular and well received. And the is where elections are won and lost – on the ground.
This is the same bad fundamentals situation that Federal Labor is facing, with the added problems of federal drag AND having been in power for several terms AND Jacinta Allan not having yet faced an election campaign as leader and not really being known to a lot of the populace.
It feels like Allan is mostly doing the ostrich pending the next Federal election and/or better economic news, which is a risky strategy.
When push comes to shove, the Vic Libs will make themselves unelectable again and remind everybody of why they aren’t voting for them. At the moment it’s more “generic Labor vs genetic opposition” as the opposition leader has basically been invisible for months.
Not surprised by these numbers. Jacinta Allen gives off wine mum / Karen vibes. Big time.
I don’t think 95% of Victorians could pick Jacinta Allan out of a lineup yet if you gave them three goes. The problem is more generic than Jacinta. I don’t think she’s yet done anything to help herself, but I don’t think the problem is Victorians hate her; I don’t think they know her yet.
As long as Victorian Labor doesn’t get complacent and arrogant like they did during John Brumby’s time, they have a chance of a 4th term in 2026. But they need to be shown to be listening to the voters to avoid that.
It’s unhelpful that most of the media are screaming at them to scrap the SRL project, but it’s been voted for in the past 3 elections and it’s likely got to the point where it’ll be more expensive to scrap it than keep going, at least for the Cheltenham-Box Hill stage. It would be policy insanity to do what they ask and be like “Cancel and demolish everything developed so far” like they’re demanding as revenge for the East-West Link.
I think they’ve got themselves in a pickle over the SRL – they’re too far in to cancel, but the last budget was so savage, particularly in health, it’s made a lot of people think ‘it’s a nice idea, but at what cost?’
I agree with Arky to an extent, but I don’t think Allan is a complete unknown – voters definitely don’t know her well, but what they have seen generally isn’t positive. The Libs newfound party discipline has been really noticeable and the moderates beat the hell out of the feral right in party elections in July, so I wouldn’t get too hopeful they can be relied on to blow it.
Anyone who thinks Allan is safe just because Andrews was is kidding themselves, needs to get out more, or isn’t Victorian.
Personally I reckon a good move for Victorian Labor is for Tim Pallas to resign to the backbench at least before the 2025 budget.
He’s had nearly 10 years as Treasurer, and had to deliver the bitter pill that was the 2024 budget, so a fresh new face to deliver a 2025 budget that addresses cost of living concerns at least at the state level would probably go over well.
50-50 seems a very strong result for a 3rd term government mid-term polling.
Easy to forget this is now a left-leaning state overall, whereas Queensland is a small ‘c’ conservative state overall.
Libs could still win Victoria but clearly they have a lot of work to do still to define the Premier and her government further to those for whom they feel unknown still; and to present at least a quietly competent government-in-waiting (the 1st rule of which is to be united and stay on message).
Perhaps if Libs can pull out wins in not only Queensland but WA then Victoria will also feel more confident to go the same way.
But if Labor lose power at the next federal election then I would expect them (Labor) to be in a much stronger position to win the 2026 Victoria election regardless of the above – the old counter-balance thing of state vs. federal government.
It’s probably worth noting that had Dan Andrews remained Premier, Labor would actually be more likely to lose the next election.
True believers will remain true believers. But the bubble would finally burst for the floating voters. A la John Howard in 2007 as a big character on the other side of politics who also ended up quite polarising though perhaps not as much as DA?
It is not impossible for the Libs to win the 2026 but it is a mighty hill to climb. Jacinta Allan might be secretly wishing for a Dutton victory next year as it could be her best chance – the Victorian govenment is very good at Canberra bashing but not as effective when its your own side.
Blackburnpseph: It certainly would help the state government in Canberra-bashing if they could shoot straight when they try – Tim Pallas going berserk at Albo for doing something entirely sensible in IR was probably their defining move there so far this term, which was uh, not a highlight for the state government.
I can’t see Pallas going quietly into retirement – he’s got too much of an ego and seems to have too much factional clout, much as it would certainly be a good move for Labor.
One thing that potentially comes into play is there is a lot of infrastructure in Melbourne, particularly on its western side, that is currently in a highly disruptive construction phase but should be finished over the next 18 months. A possible reference point here is that Labor’s vote held up well in 2022 in outer southeastern seats they were expected to lose (like Pakenham) and it may not have been coincidental that a long-running upgrade of the Monash Freeway out there was finally completed a few weeks before the election.
Given that the Age hasn’t exactly been the strongest supporter of the Suburban Rail Loop, it was interesting that today, the historical article they sometimes run in the print edition was a 1968 one about how the City Loop was a waste of money and should be cancelled, on the basis that CBD employment wasn’t growing and rail patronage was in decline (which, if it was true in 1968, has clearly ceased to be true between then and now).
(And no, I’m not the same poster as BTSays, but I might look for another name here to reduce confusion).
I take back what I said about Allan not having made one popular move: her trolling response to Chris Minns’ moment of sheer idiocy about WFH yesterday (in the midst of one of the worst winters for illness in recent memory for most people, spread by misguided RTO policies) was genius, and a good shot in the arm for the battered state public service.
She needs to do more of that kind of thing – picking a popular fight and sticking to it, instead of inevitably taking the path of least resistance.
How long before the Victorian ALP Government get into collapsing a few financial institutions – seems to be a pattern of behaviour: massively borrow and bugger the State finances and then next step…
I just realised from The Age that Allan is actually trying to run a budget surplus in 2025-26.
Having slash-and-burn, Kennett-Newman-Abbott-style budget cuts, and then doing so because you want to run a surplus is one of the more politically insane things I’ve seen a government do in recent memory. Voters will not forgive the cuts while you’re boasting about a surplus.
Labor needs to break this habit of surplus-fetishist-Treasurers with big egos whose focus on a surplus starves the government of the funds they need to actually get re-elected, and serves principally to put the Treasurer on track for their post-political career.