Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)

Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns record Labor sloping downwards in four states while recovering in a fifth. Also: the aftermath of Fatima Payman’s resignation from the ALP.

The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.

The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.

A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:

• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).

Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.

Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,107 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)”

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  1. Some consumers need to be locked up for other consumers safety.
    At some point a decision has to be made to euthanase Habitual Criminals, in their own interests as much as the broader society’s.
    A big reason why the Campbell Newman government failed was that the QPS dragged it’s feet on enforcing the bikie legislation.
    Similar issues arose 40 years earlier when Whitrod cracked down hard on bikies.
    With a bit of luck the Crisafulli Government will learn the lessons of Qld history and still be there in 30 years.

  2. Dutton’s pissed due to the digitisation of the White & Yellow Pages. It has accordingly become more difficult to elicit a confession – the most potent form of evidence in a criminal proceeding. Never mind, with law & order to feature heavily in the Qld election, he’ll be in his element again. It will be like the good old days of the Drug Squad.

  3. Mavissays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 1:52 pm
    Dutton’s pissed due to the digitisation of the White & Yellow Pages. It has accordingly become more difficult to elicit a confession – the most potent form of evidence in a criminal proceeding. Never mind, with law & order to feature heavily in the Qld election, he’ll be in his element again. It will be like the good old days of the Drug Squad.
    ===================================================

    What will the Queensland police do now? Dostoevsky “Crime and Punishment” is a big book. Could it be used instead?

  4. FUBAR @ #1402 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 1:59 pm

    Mavis says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 1:52 pm

    You’re drunk.

    Go home.

    You don’t think Badthinker’s comment that Indigenous Australians should be euthanised for the crimes they commit to be just a tad worse than what Mavis just said, and worthy of your instacondemnation instead!?!

  5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YClht0JVR0

    Those born after 1990 experiencing slower income growth | ABC NEWS

    Man, I wonder why youngsters are ditching the big 2…

    “…if we look at the sort of younger millennials, those in their late 20s, early 30s today, we haven’t seen that same income progress. So if we compare their incomes at that age to people born in the 1980s at the same age, their incomes really haven’t shifted. There’s at least some warning signs there.”

    (Discussing socio economic mobility) “What we find is that it’s really the very top and the very bottom of the income distribution (that its difficult for). So if your parents were in the top 10% of income earners, you’re more likely to be in that group yourself. And similarly, if your parents were in the bottom 10% of income earners, you’re more likely to get stuck at the bottom. And most people that have a period in poverty, so they may lose a job or have a relationship breakdown, will come out of poverty relatively quickly.”

  6. You don’t think Badthinker’s comment that Indigenous Australians should be euthanised for the crimes they commit to be just a tad worse and worthy of your instacondemnation!?!
    You’ve misunderstood my remarks, probably intentionally.
    EditLet’s give you the benefit of the doubt and say you didn’t, though.
    What’s waaay more revealing of your dreadful state of mind is that you take Habitual Criminal to mean Aborigine.

  7. I would think anyone who would suggest euthanizing indigenous people for any reason doesn’t belong posting on PB but that’s William’s call. However the only post I can find from Badthinker suggests euthanizing habitual criminals, that’s bad enough, but doesn’t mention indigenous peoples.

  8. Entropy:

    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 1:58 pm

    [‘What will the Queensland police do now? Dostoevsky “Crime and Punishment” is a big book. Could it be used instead?’]

    Ha. Verballing used to be quite effective but since the enactment of the Police Powers and Responsibilities Act 2000 (Qld), even this is
    not now an easy option. No doubt something will be found after Dutton, Crisafulli & Levers get together to turn Qld into a law-abiding State, the type we enjoyed under Bjelke-Petersen & Lewis.

  9. FUBAR:

    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 1:59 pm

    [‘You’re drunk.’]

    So I’ve had more than a few double malts – old war wounds.

    [‘Go home.’]

    I am at home.

  10. Of course the old ways used to result in record clear-up rates of unsolved crimes too Mavis.

    The police would for example catch the burglar and he would be strongly encouraged to clear up all unresolved burglaries in the local police command.

    Unfortunately do gooder activists ruined the system when they proved some offenders could not have possibly committed a crime given they were already incarcerated for other offences at the time of the offences to which they had pleaded guilty.

    Are we better off today? One has to wonder Mavis.

  11. Rant warning Here we go again. Anytime an issue gets labelled an “Aboriginal” issue directly or implied, the conservative politician and media journalist-desk jockeys are all over it and lamenting Labors attempts to do something about the ” Aboriginal problem”. No wonder is all over the NT ” youth crime problem” which often does not include “youths” exclusively or any youths or only Indigenous young people. Like the myths that all of them are alcoholics or meth heads, they all beat their wives, neglect their children and haven’t done a day’s paid work in their lives Dutton weaponises these myths for political gain with the added bonus of fanning the flames of poorly shrouded racism- let’s call it what it is. What a dick is the Member for Dickson.

  12. “And here we have a severe case of cognitive bias exhibited by C@tmomma, as a result of her inability to accept a good comment from her opposition. Seen way too often in the wild, it is most commonly torn to shreds by common sense and the extremely rare rationality,” in by best David Attenborough voice.

  13. Mavis says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 2:29 pm

    Nothing wrong with a bit of day drinking – best thing to come out of COVID lockdowns.

    I recommend that you don’t post drunk.

  14. Badthinker @ #1406 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 2:15 pm

    You don’t think Badthinker’s comment that Indigenous Australians should be euthanised for the crimes they commit to be just a tad worse and worthy of your instacondemnation!?!
    You’ve misunderstood my remarks, probably intentionally.
    What’s waaay more revealing of your dreadful state of mind is that you take Habitual Criminal to mean Aborigine.

    Who are the ‘habitual criminals’ that David Crisafulli is getting up in arms about in Queensland? What is ‘Youth Crime’ code for? Be honest.

    The crimes pertaining to which group of ‘habitual criminals’ in Alice Springs is front and centre in the news right now?

    It’s certainly not bikies, that’s for sure.

  15. Turnbull’s description of Dutton is a fairly rare instance of a former PM calling out one of his senior ministers. Yes, Mal may have an axe to grind but make no mistake: what you see is what you get – a thug.

  16. out of sorts @ #1414 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 2:38 pm

    “And here we have a severe case of cognitive bias exhibited by C@tmomma, as a result of her inability to accept a good comment from her opposition. Seen way too often in the wild, it is most commonly torn to shreds by common sense and the extremely rare rationality,” in by best David Attenborough voice.

    What-ever, whoever you are. 😐

  17. FUBAR:

    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    [‘Nothing wrong with a bit of day drinking – best thing to come out of COVID lockdowns.

    I recommend that you don’t post drunk.’]

    Thanks for your gratuitous advice, but I don’t partake. I’m as sober as a judge. Anyway, I’m off to work in the trailer park.

  18. Who are the ‘habitual criminals’ that David Crisafulli is getting up in arms about in Queensland?
    David Crisafulli hasn’t made reference to habitual criminals, as far as I know.
    Do you have evidence to the contrary?

  19. Suffice to say, there should be no Death Penalty, a synonym of which is ‘euthanised’ I guess, for ‘habitual criminals’.

  20. After seeing the SA government recently confirmed that all the investment to achieve a 100% renewable energy grid in SA by 2027 is now locked in, I saw a good question on Twitter/X. (This is due to the Malinauskas government building on the great earlier work by the Weatherall government.)

    If SA is now going to reach 100% RE by 2027 anyway, why is Peter Dutton proposing a nuclear reactor in Port Augusta?? We don’t need it. Does he want SA to waste $20 billion?

    Why does Peter Dutton hate South Australian taxpayers?

  21. Bizzcan says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 2:47 pm
    Murdoch media going apesh*t over the exclusion of gas from sustainaible finance strategy – Labor being accused of trying to detroy the gas industry.

    SkyNews should interview the Bandicoot – he will set them straight on Labor’s gas plans.

  22. The youth crimes in QLD, particularly the theft and destruction of motor vehicles, are being committed by all ethnic groups. The crimes seem to be due to some idiotic social media craze rather than an ethnic thing.
    But it’s real enough and pretending it doesn’t exist won’t help things.

  23. Is Dutton calling on Albo to bring in the military or AFP to address the so called Africian youth crime pandemic in Qld ? No sir, that is only “appropriate” in the NT. I wonder why.
    .
    .what about the cashless debit cards for unemployed alcoholic white professionals…nope.

  24. Badthinker @ #1422 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 2:49 pm

    Who are the ‘habitual criminals’ that David Crisafulli is getting up in arms about in Queensland?
    David Crisafulli hasn’t made reference to habitual criminals, as far as I know.
    Do you have evidence to the contrary?

    He calls them: “the generation of the repeat untouchables”.

    But same same.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-07/qld-lnp-youth-crime-adult-time-serious-offences-proposal/104068612

  25. I know, I know, too young not enough life experience and all that, but if it’s good enough for the Republicans to run a baby boomer candidate maybe the Democrats should consider it.

  26. White people don’t qualify as an ethnic group, Davidwh.
    I’m sure you didn’t mean to exclude white youth from the Youth crime in Qld?

  27. davidwh @ #1429 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 2:56 pm

    The youth crimes in QLD, particularly the theft and destruction of motor vehicles, are being committed by all ethnic groups. The crimes seem to be due to some idiotic social media craze rather than an ethnic thing.
    But it’s real enough and pretending it doesn’t exist won’t help things.

    Thanks for that, davidwh.

    No one should be ‘euthanised’ though. ‘Habitual criminal’ or not.

  28. davidwhsays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 3:00 pm
    The federal government has no jurisdiction to impose federal authorities in QLD or any other state.
    ==========================================

    He can actually use Border Force. Under the guise he is rounding up illegal immigrants. He has tried that before in Melbourne. He could call it “Operation Moonee” after Moonee Valley in Melbourne and carry it out in Fortitude Valley this time.

    https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/peterdutton/Pages/2015/operation-fortitude.aspx

  29. I doubt that Labor is ever going to be a genuine show in Ryan, rogue by-elections notwithstanding . I think the Greens only won last time because of the absence of a genuine ‘Teal-like’ alternative. One wonders how ‘The River to the Sea’ catch-cries will play out in this suburban enclave of Brisvegas.

    I think the best long term prospect for keeping Ryan out of the hands of the LNP would be the emergence of a high-profile teal-like independent. I suspect the same considerations apply to the seat of Brisbane. However I also suspect that lil’ Max is safely ensconced behind the Great Wall of Quinoa in Griffith for as long as he wants it (unless he completely shits the bed at some point, which is possible given that he is a twat).

  30. Yeh, its honestly amazing just how much Labor hates him… but then, asking questions has hardly been popular of this current government

  31. Psychopaths can’t be rehabilitated, or even successfully treated, yet their heavy presence is what makes prisons in Australia such dangerous places..
    Sure, not all psychopaths end up in prison, possibly due to intelligence factors coming into play, but why should a prisoner with excellent prospects for rehabilitation have their life placed in jeopardy day in, day out, by psychopaths who are a constant drain on the justice system?

  32. Rex Douglas @ #1438 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 3:09 pm

    IMO, prisoners serving life sentences should be given the option…

    The Lunar Left and the Rabid Right joining hands across the horseshoe.

    Rex Douglas, a life sentence, and we have an expert here right now, Andrew-Earlwood, is only about 20 years. A lot can change in an inmate’s life in that time. Primary thing being that they can be paroled and go back to their life. If they agree to die at some stage of their sentence when they may be feeling really depressed, there’s no coming back. Something they may live to regret. But can’t. Because they’re dead.

  33. Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 3:18 pm
    Psychopaths can’t be rehabilitated, or even successfully treated, yet their heavy presence is what makes prisons in Australia such dangerous places..
    Sure, not all psychopaths end up in prison, possibly due to intelligence factors coming into play, but why should a prisoner with excellent prospects for rehabilitation have their life placed in jeopardy day in, day out, by psychopaths who are a constant drain on the justice system?
    =====================================================

    Speaking of psychopath, when is the trial of that deranged online influencer Andrew Tate going to occur? Sooner he is behind bars and off the internet the better. Though i assume Elon Musk will not be happy when that happens.

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