Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)

Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns record Labor sloping downwards in four states while recovering in a fifth. Also: the aftermath of Fatima Payman’s resignation from the ALP.

The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.

The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.

A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:

• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).

Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.

Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)”

Comments Page 28 of 51
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  1. Interesting how so many of the (to coin a cliche) LNP “luvies” deplore the thought of a second Trump run, but secretly are really hoping for it to come to pass to stick it to those lefty Democrats and enjoy their discomfort should Trump get up.
    At heart, the right just love the “strong” man to sort matters out.
    Not so long ago here in good old Oz, right wing mouthpieces were calling for water cannon and batons to deal with the idiots atop of Parliament house. Says it all ……

  2. Meanwhile in reality, Biden is hosting the NATO Summit, followed by a meeting with the new PM of the United Kingdom.

    If there was a time where you would be concerned about the diminished standing of the USA, wouldn’t it be right now?

  3. B. S. Fairman @ #1349 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 10:46 am

    Socrates – I discussed Short Money over on the British/French election thread. The amount Reform misses out on is approx. 650k pounds a year. Assume that the parliament runs for 5 years (it won’t, it will run 4 years and 10 months to align with local elections), that is 3 million pounds they miss out on.

    Meanwhile, Sinn Fein with 7 seats has no issue in pocketing approx. 800,000 pounds during this parliament but with a slight difference – “Short Money” is for parliamentary duties – as they don’t attend parliament it is called “representative money” for representative duties.

  4. According to The Conversation, Fatima Payman has advised muslim people that they should not form their own party because they need to look at a broader base.

    How many rightbwing cookers said that would be an outcome of her independence?

  5. Not just the right wing Granny, I seem to recall aloooooot of people pre-empted the Muslim party led by Payman… shocking it turns out to be bollocks

  6. The Washington Post reports there is a ‘growing celebrity revolt against Biden’ following Clooney’s op-ed.
    CNN reports that Democrats have been ‘stunned by how rapidly things have unraveled for Biden in the last 24 hours’

  7. Oakeshott Country – DUP will still receive money. It is calculated at a rate of so much per MP and so much per vote. The rule is if the party does not have 6 MPs, it is capped. Both the DUP and SF amount is nowhere near the capped amount.
    The Greens and Reform UK both got a lot of votes but not 6 MPs so run into the cap.
    The SDLP got 2 MPs but not many votes and actually get boosted by a floor.
    The money is for maintaining an office for the parliamentary party, so the justification for the cap is that 5 or less MPs do not need that many staffers to run the party meetings, answer the calls etc. Similarly, the floor exists so that they can actually employ someone.

  8. The Republican Convention is next week. If Biden was announce his standing aside, would it be better or worse after that?

  9. I saw another video this morning but can’t find it now. Ohio has a statute on it’s books saying that presidential candidates have to be notified to the state before a cutoff date. 180 days, or something like that, before the date of the election. The democratic convention falls inside the limit and therefore Biden may not be on the Ohio ticket.
    In the past the Ohio legislature has passed a motion to get around this law. However, this is now a maga controlled administration.

  10. Obviously Meher Baba, TM, Lars and Badthinker. Think Alice Springs is a good story for their boy Dutton. Certainly been doing it to death this morning. Though i do note Lars is probably not a Dutton supporter, just someone who likes to hate Labor. While i can’t say i know the answer here. I’m pretty sure the solution that a former Queensland copper like Dutton would probably apply here. Would be even worse than the problem.

  11. Aqualung @ #1361 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 11:45 am

    I saw another video this morning but can’t find it now. Ohio has a statute on it’s books saying that presidential candidates have to be notified to the state before a cutoff date. 180 days, or something like that, before the date of the election. The democratic convention falls inside the limit and therefore Biden may not be on the Ohio ticket.
    In the past the Ohio legislature has passed a motion to get around this law. However, this is now a maga controlled administration.

    There’s a whole write in thing where you can add a candidate when you vote. But it really wouldn’t matter for Ohio as it’ll remain red regardless.

    But it does raise a point, there are cut offs and there is a real risk that any replacement wouldn’t be on the ballot in certain purple states.

  12. I understand that the Ohio date is 29 July, before the mid August Dem Convention.

    And the Dems are planning a ‘virtual roll call’ of the delegates before 29/7, so they can submit the names of President and VP to Ohio.

    Another case of the Dems ‘playing by the rules’, rather than seeking injunctions etc etc

  13. out of sortssays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:03 am
    Mimhoff
    Absolutely. Which is why our PM should have gone.

    Albo could and should engage world leaders from his Canberra office and video conferencing room.

    It’s 2024 FFS !

  14. UK cartoons and other miscellany

    Matt

    Jonsey

    Dave Brown

    Christian Adams

    Peter Schrank

    Martin Rowson

    Banx

    Fergus Boylan

    Waters

    Guy Venables
    Drones have been deployed to monitor tourists in parts of Greece as fighting for sunbeds spirals out of control.

    Morten Morland

    Andy Davey

    Peter Brookes

    Pascal Gros
    “So far, things are going OK”
    “Missed again” [A chilling reminder of how the vote for Le Pen’s RN continues to rise]

    Tom Red
    Boozing and betting are fine. Grabbing bread, milk and Cheezels not so much.

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

  15. out of sorts says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:03 am

    WTF?

    We aren’t a member of NATO.

    Even sending our Defence Minister is OTT.

  16. Dotard is spending time in rallys to diss Kamala Harris. His nickname for her?

    ‘Laffin’ Kamala’

    He is losing a step in his signature bullying..

  17. Granny Annysays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:12 am
    According to The Conversation, Fatima Payman has advised muslim people that they should not form their own party because they need to look at a broader base.

    …..

    Won’t stop the Murdoch agenda of divide and inflame…

  18. The truth is, the Alice problem started good and proper with the abolishment of limited cashless debit cards. Reintroduce them, people have an incentive to work because they get food free, booze spending is limited/not covered, the police force can relax a bit because youths are working and making income.

    But of course, that’s racist or unnecessary or something, because who suggested it? Oh that’s right, it was the Morrison administration, not Albo or Burney.

  19. meher baba says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 8:23 am

    And, Taylormade, I was never one of those who criticised ScoMo for being on holiday during bushfires: although I do think his “I don’t hold a hose, mate” comment was a terrible, insensitive gaffe.

    The idea that our leaders have to be present and visible during some sort of emergency dates back to media attacks on Whitlam for going overseas around the time of Cyclone Tracy and the Hobart bridge disaster.

    Howard added to it by requiring that any poor victims of bushfires, floods, cyclones, ingrown toenails and whatever had to endure a visit from him and Hyacinth wearing undertaker grief expessions on their faces.

    So now it’s become a compulsory requirement for Prime Ministers: as if they were monarchs or the US President or some such. I don’t think it achieves all that much and can sometimes look a little ghoulish. But, of course, the media delights in it, and revels in the opportunity to bash a politician who doesn’t front up for a photo opportunity.

    Whatever.

    I agree with this, except to say that Morrison made the mistake of trying to hide that he was on holiday. I also thing that Christine Nixon was unfairly criticised for going out to dinner during the bushfires in Victoria.

    Leaders should put in place systems and structures to handle these situations. It’s impossible for them to be available 24×7, so they shouldn’t be expected to be.

  20. Rex Douglas says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:57 am

    Albo could and should engage world leaders from his Canberra office and video conferencing room.

    It’s 2024 FFS !

    Having attended conferences virtually when others have attended physically, you miss out on too much. Either go or send someone in your place.

  21. Entropy: “Obviously Meher Baba, TM, Lars and Badthinker. Think Alice Springs is a good story for their boy Dutton. Certainly been doing it to death this morning. Though i do note Lars is probably not a Dutton supporter, just someone who likes to hate Labor. While i can’t say i know the answer here. I’m pretty sure the solution that a former Queensland copper like Dutton would probably apply here. Would be even worse than the problem.”
    ———————————————————————————
    There aren’t many certainties in life, but one of them is that you will emerge from your cave at some point each day and launch into ad hominem attacks against other posters.

    Now listen chum. I post whatever I feel like posting on here, and I discuss any topic that happens to interest me at the time. To me, the situation in Alice Springs is a very important issue for our nation: far more important than a lot of the day-to-day political back and forth that preoccupies most posters on here. I have no idea what Dutton’s attitude is towards it, and I don’t care.

    If you choose to attack me, you can be assured that I will give you both barrels back. Your modus operandi on this forum appears to be to start fights and to sneer at other posters and drive them away.

    Grow up.

  22. out of sortssays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:03 am
    Mimhoff
    Absolutely. Which is why our PM should have gone.
    ——————————————————
    FUBARsays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:58 am
    out of sorts says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:03 am

    WTF?

    We aren’t a member of NATO.

    Even sending our Defence Minister is OTT.
    =================================================

    Good to see LNP supporters showing a united front. In this case in bagging Albo. If he doesn’t go he is wrong and if he does he is too. So what ever he does there will be section of Liberal supporters willing to bag him for it. Lucky the Liberal party stands for nothing. Which enables this duopoly of anti-Albo positions to exist. Without contradicting any party position.

  23. New report analyses deep origins of the fossil fuel industry’s fight against climate action and renewables, and the key players in Australia https://t.co/a0bFdsDQUy— Renew Economy (@renew_economy) July 11, 2024

    I’ve been banging on for years since the Gillard minority Govt was torn down, about the fossil fuel cartel and it’s corruption of our major parties in order to protect their market and industry super investments.

    These vampires are draining the life out of civilisation.

  24. sprocket_ @ #1364 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 11:56 am

    I understand that the Ohio date is 29 July, before the mid August Dem Convention.

    And the Dems are planning a ‘virtual roll call’ of the delegates before 29/7, so they can submit the names of President and VP to Ohio.

    Another case of the Dems ‘playing by the rules’, rather than seeking injunctions etc etc

    Good to know. I don’t recall that being mentioned in the video.
    Mostly Interested I knew about write in ballots but you wouldn’t want to be relying on them to win an election. 🙂

  25. Do civilisation a favour and vote for either the conservative Teal or the progressive Greens.

    Don’t let the fossil fuel cartel vampires wreck everything.

  26. Lately I have been using podcasts to listen to while doing some exercise. It helps relieve the boredom and can be educational if you find the right podcast.

    In this regard I recommend the following by Prof James Curran on the history of Australian foreign affairs, especially engagement with Asia since WWII. So far I have found it clear and impartial, with lots of details I did not know about events I thought I knew.
    https://an-australian-world.transistor.fm/episodes

  27. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/11/anger-over-delay-to-end-of-no-grounds-evictions-in-nsw-as-renters-face-perfect-storm

    Anger over delay to end of no-grounds evictions in NSW as renters face ‘perfect storm’

    Premier Chris Minns says government is still ‘grappling’ with issue that has already been outlawed in most states

    The New South Wales government has been accused of failing renters by delaying legislation to end no-grounds evictions as demand for legal aid spikes across Sydney.

    Despite both major parties pledging to abolish no-grounds evictions in the 2023 election, the government is yet to introduce legislation to implement the much-anticipated reforms.

    Man, Minns is having a week isnt he…

  28. Jon Kudelka’s term for hardcore Labor people (we have a few here) is ‘rusties’. I wonder if WD40 helps?

    ‘@jonkudelka
    Incredible how the rusties only ever talk about Dutton as the boss boogeyman but are actually insanely mad at the greens for having some actual character.’

    ‘@Mayella09476043
    Please all this anti Albo crap has to stop.
    Labor IS NOT a supporter of the Netanyahu govt and their war crimes in Gaza.
    Trying to portray Labor in this light is misinformation being perpetrated by the fucking Australian Greens.
    Labor supports Palestinian statehood.’

  29. Peter Dutton leading with his glass jaw this morning…

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has responded to former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s ‘thug’ attack, choosing not to return fire directly.

    In his regular Thursday interview with 2GB’s Ray Hadley, Dutton was asked about Turnbull’s spray.

    On the Ten’s Sunday Project, Turnbull said a Dutton prime ministership should be contemplated “with dread”, calling him a “thug” and alleging Dutton’s one turn is “division and animosity, generally targeted at immigrants.”

    “I couldn’t think of anyone less suited to be prime minister of a multicultural society like Australia,” Turnbull told a stunned panel.

    Dutton told Haldey he thinks “people can see through it”.

    “I wish him the best. I think he’s diminishing himself by making these comments,” Dutton said.

    “Malcolm’s got an axe to grind. I think it’s sad.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-fair-go-stagnating-as-fewer-earn-more-than-parents-support-for-biden-slips-further-20240711-p5jsp8.html

  30. Btw, Ray Hadley discusses the questions he will ask with Dutton’s office beforehand.

    Allows Plutonium Pete to rule out some, and suggest ones for which he has his team craft a ‘statesman like response’.

  31. Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 12:31 pm
    These stores do receive quite a lot of government assistance.

    Here’s one that I know is pretty well run and provides fresh meat, fruit and veggies.

    https://yirrkalacommunitystore.com.au/
    Thanks meher, sounds like you’re one of the good guys.
    ===================================================

    A much more reasonable and moderate member of the same team supporter base as you, i would say.

  32. Further to the claims and counter claims of Viennese housing affordability.
    Perhaps one of the reasons that Vienna does not have a housing crisis is that it was depopulated during the 20th century as it went from a great imperial city to a backwater.
    Population 1910 2.1 M
    1990 1.5 M
    Since then there has been significant growth and it is currently 2.0 M
    Currently more than a third of Viennese are immigrants most being German, from the old empire or Serbian.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna#Demographics

  33. A three-night curfew in Alice Springs is set to end, with police saying that while it has helped control a CBD crime wave, it was not a ‘lasting solution’ and had impacts on the broader community.

  34. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 12:59 pm
    Btw, Ray Hadley discusses the questions he will ask with Dutton’s office beforehand.

    Allows Plutonium Pete to rule out some, and suggest ones for which he has his team craft a ‘statesman like response’.
    ================================================

    Propaganda theatre masquerading as political journalism. How low can the MSM go and that’s just Channel 9 (owner of 2GB). Though i note the thug Costello is no longer in charge. So a certain level of thuggery is still unacceptable to them.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-10/analysis-peter-costello/103958576

  35. Socrates says Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 12:39 pm

    Lately I have been using podcasts to listen to while doing some exercise. It helps relieve the boredom and can be educational if you find the right podcast.

    In this regard I recommend the following by Prof James Curran on the history of Australian foreign affairs, especially engagement with Asia since WWII. So far I have found it clear and impartial, with lots of details I did not know about events I thought I knew.
    https://an-australian-world.transistor.fm/episodes

    If you’re listening to podcasts I can recommend the following.

    Regular Podcasts
    More of Less: Behind the Statistics by the BBC
    If You’re Listening by the ABC
    Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
    Planet Money by PBS
    Shirtloads of Science by Doctor Karl
    Science Vs
    Health Report by the ABC
    The Curious Cases of Rutherford & Fry by the BBC
    The Infinite Monkey Cage by the BBC
    The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast
    The Axe Files
    Because Language

    Limited Series
    13 Minutes to the Moon by the BBC
    About a Boy: The Story of Vladimir Putin
    Rabbit Hole by the New York Times

    There are also some very interesting episodes on the Warfare podcast, which has now ended.

  36. Chrisafulli is going to maximize his law and order vote. The particular election setting is sentencing children as if they adults. Dutton is on it as might be expected.
    My view is that it will work politically but will be destructive in practice.
    Bandicoot will squeak about it as if his being a Thug enabler can be switched on and off at will.

  37. sprocket_ @ #1367 Thursday, July 11th, 2024 – 12:01 pm

    Dotard is spending time in rally to diss Kamala Harris. His nickname for her?

    ‘Laffin’ Kamala’

    He is losing a step in his signature bullying..

    Yeah, coz that’s what the Millennials and Gen Z like about her!

    June Sternbach, a content creator and co-host of the “Western Kabuki” internet culture podcast, has posted Harris content to her more than 140,000 followers on X. “I still think she’s representative of everything that’s wrong with the Democratic Party — but she’s funny. It’s about the vibe,” she said. “I think it genuinely started from a palace of irony, but there’s a level where it’s not irony too. No one likes Biden, everyone feels so stuck, everyone feels so down and out. Part of the Kamala thing is the potential that things might just be slightly better.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/09/kamala-harris-internet-social-memes/

  38. Hardly clutching when we are simply posting reputable sources that only yesterday Minns made it clear that gambling was seen as more relevant to ANZAC day then food shopping, that reports on greyhound racing and its related scourges were just business as usual, and then today further reports about Minns struggling with something that every other state and territory government has already done, and was a joint item from both the Labor and Coalition camps.

    Not sure thats meme, but if you want i can give you some examples and a defn 🙂

  39. The Coalition spent a decade undermining Labor’s tobacco reforms. Absolutely predictable that the Thug and the Bandicoot would team up to gut Labor’s attempt to fix the mess.

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