The post-budget polling avalanche rumbles on:
• Yesterday’s Financial Review had a Freshwater Strategy poll with two-party preferred at 50-50, unchanged on mid-April, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 14% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 37% and steady on 45% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down a point on both to 31% and 40% respectively. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 45-39 to 46-37. Twenty-four per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 46% no difference, but 39% felt it would have an upward impact on interest rates compared with only 11% for downward and 28% for no effect. Nonetheless, questions on which parties were better placed to handle various areas of policy found Labor doing better on the whole than last month, having widened their lead on welfare and benefits and narrowed deficits on economic management, crime and social order and immigration and asylum. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1056.
• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor and the Coalition unchanged at 31% and 34% of the primary vote respectively, but with the Greens down to 10%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with the Coalition leading 47% to 46% and the remainder undecided. Last time it was noted here that the 2PP+ implied an unusually strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition – this remains the case this time in lesser degree, my own estimate of two-party preferred based on 2022 election preference flows being 51-49 in favour of Labor. All the major initiatives in the budget recorded strong support, but only 27% thought it would make a meaningful difference to the cost of living. Sixty per cent felt only low and middle-income households should get the $300 energy rebate, with only 35% favouring it going to all households as per the government’s approach. The poll had a sample of 1149 and was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday – there will be more detail in the full release later today.
• After four successive weeks at 52-48, the regular Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 14.5% (up one) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1674.
Badthinker says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 12:34 pm
How are figures such as: 20,000 litres/water required to produce 1 Kg of [boneless] Beef arrived at?
Something like this: Say a 100,000 hectare cattle property averages 600 ml of rain in a year?
Believe it or not, that’s 600 billion litres of water.
Let’s say there are 5,000 head of cattle, dressed and boned producing 200 Kg of meat each. That’s a million Kg.
Then lets’ say the cattle are on the property eating grass and building up the fertility of the soil, i.e., being part of the Carbon Cycle, for 3 years.
Bingo!!
18,000 litres of water required to produce 1 Kg of Beef.
______________________________
What if you grow no cattle? – Your farm still ‘uses’ the 600 billion litres but produces nothing or maybe up stock to 10000 and halve the usage to 9000 litres.
The rain is going to fall at the same rate regardless of what crop there is.
‘meher baba says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 12:35 pm
FUBAR: “You, amongst all of us, know better than anyone what is happening in the Netherlands with the attacks on farmers’ livelihoods – and that’s just a few – not the whole beef and dairy industry. If you think they are going to be shutdown, along with tourism, then you are definitely dreaming.”
——————————————————————————
Don’t encourage him. He’s just a grumpy bugger who endlessly rants against people who he conceives to be Green-voting ecotourist yuppies. If the Greens came out tomorrow and said that tourism should be totally banned, he’d probably be all for it.’
===============================
LOL. Poor old Meher Baba. He has never forgiven me for pointing out that by normalizing Dutton’s abnormal bullshit he is doing exactly what Dutton wants.
As for the Greens and tourism. Your prediction is safe. The Greens are among Australia’s largest consumers of tourism.
meher…
So, I dont agree that these were Robin Hood measures. Tax breaks, concessions etc are tinkerings that are done to get good economic results or assist in market failures or where there is a need to direct investment for good social outcomes. In general, it has been generally widely accepted that some level of progressiveness in a tax system is beneficial for all. It grows the pie and improves social cohesion. So long as the government is using it well (reasonably efficiently and in important areas). The beauty of a democracy is that we can vote them out if they dont.
I do agree that most Australians are comfortable with the idea that there exists uber wealthy people and very wealthy people – that there will be very large income and wealth differences between the low, average and high brackets. So long as that discrepancy works for Australia, so long as they pay their dues and so long as it doesnt result in shifts of power away from The People.
VCT Et3e: “Hmmm, I reckon BW continues to focus on a liberals/ conservatives struggle, and fighting previous conflicts.”
——————————————————————————
Do you mean like 2013, when he banged on and on and on about how everyone should vote informal?
I, whom BW and Ven and others endless rail at for being a Liberal, voted for Labor in that election, notwithstanding my visceral contempt for Rudd. I find it amusing.
OC posted
Very likely. But if it behaves like the present lot it will most likely cop the same treatment. And so on ad infinitum. I can’t see any hope for peace in the Middle East in the foreseeable future.
I wonder if they believe they have this one in the bag. And why they believe that. Could be mistaken confidence. Or something else. They have put in a lot of antidemocratic groundwork.
‘Tricot says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 12:55 pm
Brexit is finished. …’
—————
Yeah. Nah. It is still there. Starmer probably holds the last great hope of reversing it but he will not do so.
The Brits are stuck with Brexit for at least a generation.
‘meher baba says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 1:30 pm
VCT Et3e: “Hmmm, I reckon BW continues to focus on a liberals/ conservatives struggle, and fighting previous conflicts.”
——————————————————————————
Do you mean like 2013, when he banged on and on and on about how everyone should vote informal?
I, whom BW and Ven and others endless rail at for being a Liberal, voted for Labor in that election, notwithstanding my visceral contempt for Rudd. I find it amusing.’
======================
Oooh. I do love these Bludger meta debates. Lots of energy. Zip outcome. The horror! The horror!
@meher:
“ But that wasn’t “Spain” as I define it. It was mostly the rule of the Umayyad Caliphate which, like almost all Muslim monarchies prior to the 20th century, was far more tolerant of other religions than were Christian monarchies. ”
_______
From my limited understanding of “Spain” pre 15th century (ie.from around 1000 CE until 1400CE) is that the peninsula was much more of a patchwork of kingdoms and fiefdoms than being ‘mostly the rule of the Umayyad Caliphate”, whereby the subjects of said petty kingdoms could easily have been followers any one of the three main religions, irrespective of the allegiances of their rulers. It was in that context, that I said that it appears that the followers of the three religions were able to ‘rub along’ with each other, even as the rulers changed.
BTW – I think their Most Catholic Majesties Spanish names were actually Fernando and Isabel. It is an English affectation to call them Ferdinand and Isabella.
As if the mispellings of non-Anglo names in Australia started in the digital age!
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/22/people-with-commonly-autocorrected-names-call-for-tech-firms-to-fix-problem
Team Katich: “So, I dont agree that these were Robin Hood measures.”
—————————————————————————
Nor do I. But it’s how they were sold to the public. All that “big end of town” crap.
In reality, the franking credits affected hundreds of thousands of ordinary people. Labor were extremely stupid to go anywhere near them.
Their stupidity was disguised during the 2016 election by the success of Mediscare and by Turnbull’s incredibly poor campaign. But in 2019 they were right out there in the open and caused Labor a lot of trouble.
My impression is that someone working for some shadow minister happened upon them and thought they represented a wonderful magic pudding. If Labor had been in government, it would have received advice that the only fair and acceptable way in which to introduce changes of this sort is to include grandparenting. But they didn’t receive such advice and, with lovely thoughts of all the wonderful things they could spend the money on, travelled merrily on towards hell in a handcart.
A_E: “It was in that context, that I said that it appears that the followers of the three religions were able to ‘rub along’ with each other, even as the rulers changed.”
I would suggest that they rubbed along best under the Caliphate, and less so in other areas.
“I think their Most Catholic Majesties Spanish names were actually Fernando and Isabelle. It is an English affectation to call them Ferdinand and Isabella.”
If we are going to play pedantry at five paces, I think you will find it it would have been “Isabel” (Isabelle being a French spelling).
I’m not sure about Fernando vs Ferdinand. I’ve studied the careers of F&I a bit (I have an abiding interest in papal bulls authorising the colonial conquest of the world by the Portuguese and Spanish) and I’m pretty sure he called himself “Ferdinand”, but I’m happy to stand corrected if you’ve got some evidence.
meher babasays:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 8:10 am
Spain’s decision to recognise the state of Palestine carries on two great Spanish traditions.
1. Antipathy towards Jewish people, eg: the massacres of the 14th century and the expulsion of all Jews from the country in the 15th century.
=====================================================
Why don’t we ban any country who has been involved in any massacre in the last 600 years. To be able to vote at the UN or sit on the UN security council. Do we know if any country would be allowed to vote then?.
Most of what Shorten outlined need to be grandfathered (reduced or removed) asap. Franking credits not something I was engaged with.
“ If we are going to play pedantry at five paces, I think you will find it it would have been “Isabel” (Isabelle being a French spelling).”
Yes, I self corrected shortly after posting. Mia culpa.
As for Ferdinand vs Fernando, I am wholly reliant on the “Empires” Podcast I listened to last week as I drove home from Tamworth.
@meher:
“ But that wasn’t “Spain” as I define it. It was mostly the rule of the Umayyad Caliphate which, like almost all Muslim monarchies prior to the 20th century, was far more tolerant of other religions than were Christian monarchies. ”
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Further to AE’s comments the Arab Empire was first subdivided into various Emirates by the early 700s i.e. before the Umayyad Caliphate began. The Berbers in North Africa were a separate Emirate from the start.
By the mid 8th Century the Emir of Cordoba formally declared independence of Andaulsia (Moorish Spain) from the Arab Caliphates in the east. I don’t think you could say that the (Baghdad) Umayyads ruled Spain for more than 2 generations. The following 400 years Spain was rules by Spanish born muslims.
Entropy: “Why don’t we ban any country who has been involved in any massacre in the last 600 years. To be able to vote at the UN or sit on the UN security council. Do we know if any country would be allowed to vote then?”
—————————————————————————-
Modern Spain has done the right thing, allowing Jews to settle in the country (there are now around 50,000) and offering citizenship to many of the descendants of the expelled Jews living elsewhere.
But many of those people will be sorely disappointed by the Spanish Government’s announcement this week. The case against it seems extremely simple to me: a group of Palestinians engaged in a horrendously brutal massacre of Jews, and to recognise what those Palestinians claimed was the political goal of that massacre is surely a case of rewarding unbelievably bad behaviour.
That’s how the Jewish people I know see it. What would you say to them to try to persuade them to see it differently?
A_E: “As for Ferdinand vs Fernando, I am wholly reliant on the “Empires” Podcast I listened to last week as I drove home from Tamworth.”
Is that the William Dalrymple one?
meher babasays:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Team Katich: “So, I dont agree that these were Robin Hood measures.”
—————————————————————————
Nor do I. But it’s how they were sold to the public. All that “big end of town” crap.
In reality, the franking credits affected hundreds of thousands of ordinary people. Labor were extremely stupid to go anywhere near them.
Their stupidity was disguised during the 2016 election by the success of Mediscare and by Turnbull’s incredibly poor campaign. But in 2019 they were right out there in the open and caused Labor a lot of trouble.
My impression is that someone working for some shadow minister happened upon them and thought they represented a wonderful magic pudding. If Labor had been in government, it would have received advice that the only fair and acceptable way in which to introduce changes of this sort is to include grandparenting.
=====================================================
There is nothing fair about grandparenting and only a boomer would think there is. It is subsidising of the current more wealthy older generation by the poorer younger generation. The only fair system here would be reverse grandparenting. Where people could get franking credits reimbursed till they were 40 years old, after that not. As this would help more of the people who actually need the money. Like young people trying to get into a house.
Though a compromise would be to cap refund to around say $3000 dollars. So a pensioner with $50000 in shares could still get their full refund. While a CEO with $5 million in his SMSF would only get $3000 and not $100000 dollars from this rort.
Entropy: “There is nothing fair about grandparenting ”
—————————————————————————-
There most certainly is. It is a basic principle of government since the end of the feudal era that rulers should not try to legislate people’s money out of their hands. That’s the point of grandparenting.
I don’t think that franking credits should ever have been introduced, although I note that Labor was extremely enthusiastic about the when they were legislated into existence. But having been introduced, it was never going to be a good idea to withdraw them suddenly from everyone. The only thing that surprised me was how long it took for the Liberals to go on the attack against Labor about the policy. Gee Turnbull was a crap politician.
Gawd Entropy that sounds like a combination of ageism and class warfare.
meher baba says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 2:01 pm
“… But many of those people will be sorely disappointed by the Spanish Government’s announcement this week. The case against it seems extremely simple to me: a group of Palestinians engaged in a horrendously brutal massacre of Jews, and to recognise what those Palestinians claimed was the political goal of that massacre is surely a case of rewarding unbelievably bad behaviour.
That’s how the Jewish people I know see it. What would you say to them to try to persuade them to see it differently?”
Perhaps pointing out that the HAMAS horrendous attack killed 1,700 Israelis, but the Israeli reprisals have killed over 37,000 Palestinians – mostly innocent civilians (according to Al-Jazeera).
How is this “proportionate”? – unless you think Palestinian’s lives are not worth the same as Israeli’s.
It is not anti-Semitism. It is anti Bibi-ism.
‘VCT Et3e says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 1:16 pm
Hmmm, I reckon BW continues to focus on a liberals/ conservatives struggle, and fighting previous conflicts.’
—————————
The Greens are liberals or conservatives?
Entropy:
“Why don’t we ban any country who has been involved in any massacre in the last 600 years. To be able to vote at the UN or sit on the UN security council. Do we know if any country would be allowed to vote then?”
—————————————————
Well they won’t need a very big room to meet in. That will rule out almost every country in Europe, Africa, the Americas and Asia, plus USA, Australia and NZ. Ireland and Iceland might get to rule every vote.
Australia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_of_Indigenous_Australians
USA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_massacres_in_North_America
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_genocide_in_the_United_States#Lynching_and_other_racial_killings
New Zealand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moriori_genocide
davidwhsays:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 2:10 pm
Gawd Entropy that sounds like a combination of ageism and class warfare.
=========================================================
Grandfathering is a form of intergenerational warfare. It enables those who most exploited and grew rich on exploiting a financial system. To continue to grow rich exploiting that system. While at the same time banning future generations from using that same system in the same way. Basically it would be rewarding the most wealthy generation for its greed. While excluding all other generations from doing it or from fully utilising it to the same way.
Why should a 35 year old who buys $15000 worth of bank shares in 2026. Then becomes unemployed in 2027. Not get their $250 dollars of franking credits reimbursed to them. While the 70 year old retire with a SMSF that has $1.5 million dollars in bank shares. Gets a cash return of $25000 because his shares were owned before the grandfathering provision was initiated and younger guys shares were not.
Meher Baba rather than grandfathering I think the FBT changes needed to be means tested but on a sliding scale over 5-10 years. That would have given people who set up their financial arrangements in good faith time to adjust to the changes.
‘rewards’ is a construct that goes with ‘punishment’
IMO, it is practically useless as a conceptual input for resolving outcomes arising from the current war battle.
Which would be, IMO, why some are interested in framing the ‘debate’ thus.
Grandfathering is a way of reducing the political damage from unpopular changes.
I wasn’t referring to the grandfathering issue Entropy but the overall tone of the post.
@socrates:
“The following 400 years Spain was rules by Spanish born muslims.”
_______
Well, sort of. It seems from my reading (and it is a cursory read) that in that 400 odd year period ‘Spanish born muslim’ rulers competed with Spanish born christian’ rulers over a patchwork of fiefdoms and petty kingdoms throughout the peninsula until the beginning of the 15th century, in the 1-2 generations immediately before their most Catholic Majesties Isabel and “F______”.
“ Is that the William Dalrymple one?”
The one and the same.
@meher:
“ I don’t think that franking credits should ever have been introduced, although I note that Labor was extremely enthusiastic about the when they were legislated into existence.”
_________
Franking credits are one thing, but ‘cash backs’ for unused franking credits would have to be the ultimate Howard voting boomer boondoggle of all time. One should not conflate labor’s support for the former in a defence of the later. …
Socratessays:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 2:18 pm
Entropy:
Ireland and Iceland might get to rule every vote.
=================================================
Not sure they are totally clean on this measure too. It might come down to definitions.
My apologies.
I meant gradual removal with a grace period. Not grandfathering.
Would it be so bad if the Palestinians were resettled in Egypt and Jordan (with a massive aid package to help them get resettled).
Problem solved ?
AE
Yes at the local level the rulers of each State/province (some the size of single valleys) could be christian, muslim or jewish. But the acknowledged ruler of Andalusia (Moorish Spain) was the muslim Emir/Caliph in Cordoba.
Pueo
Do you know this?
Parade of planets: Six planets to line up in the skies in rare cosmic alignment
The alignment will take place in the first week of June as the planets line up in a rare cosmic event.
https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/parade-of-planets-six-planets-to-line-up-in-the-skies-in-rare-cosmic-alignment-2542320-2024-05-22
Nathan Wade, former beau of Georgia DA Fani Willis just gave an interview on MSNBC..
https://youtu.be/VpZiHOTWLOk?si=7q3DpvsFVDtxdXDf
Lily has a message for TaylorMade and all Victorians
The ultimate tourist experience: BarkAir.
Up to $6,000 a ticket for the dog. Human owners are add ons.
https://air.bark.co/
Plus 2.5 degrees.
Lars
“Would it be so bad if the Palestinians were resettled in Egypt and Jordan (with a massive aid package to help them get resettled).
Problem solved ?”
If that had been the solution it would have been done decades ago. (One of my friends who is Australian of Palestinian origin came from a family that first journeyed to Egypt. They left.)
Egypt is tolerant of Palestinians but not friendly. Egypt and Palestine are different ethnicities with different languages, culture and history. Egypt already has 100 million people and a shortage of water.
The Palestinians are an Arab people who would have more in common with Jordan or Arabia.
Iceland and Ireland might decide all votes
Only if you ignore the Vikings and numerous incidents like the Portadown Massacre
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portadown_massacre
Lars
A very Cromwellian solution (and we know how that is working out)
BUT you have also forgotten Black September
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_September
Entropy
“Not sure they are totally clean on this measure too. It might come down to definitions.”
True. The last six centuries period rules out Viking and Celtic indiscretions.
I assume we are referring to massacres BY the race in question. In that period the Irish were massacred by Cromwell’s army, but I don’t think they massacred anyone else. Same with the Icelanders.
OC
Oops! I forgot Portadown fitted within our period. Ireland is knocked out.
The Icelanders might be on their own since 1424. I put it down to lack of opportunity. (The Vikings had all converted to Christianity by the 12th century).
Lily isn’t taking any crap from Madeleine King !
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/victorian-energy-minister-lily-dambrosio-takes-fresh-swing-at-federal-counterpart-over-gas/news-story/085ac38f56595037795928ceebc7fb2f
”
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 11:38 am
Hamas, Gaza and the West Bank are a subset of the Iran side in the Iran v Israel Genocide War. Hamas, Gaza and the West Bank can’t be fixed while either or both of Israel and Iran hold to their vision statements.
The very best we can hope for is temporary cobbled together band aids over the symptoms.
This would be, IMO, better than nothing on the basis that it is counter productive to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good. (Hint, hint, Greens!)
But better-than-nothing symptoms management is no permanent fix for the root causes in Israel and Iran.
”
As I posted earlier Hamas is an idea like Communism.
For a lot of people Communism looked like a good idea and system. As it turned out it was a horrible system when implemented.
But it was not defeated by some kind of genocidal war but by
1. Imposing deterrent
2. Showing how good the other system is.
Something similar should happen with Hamas.
But some say Hamas is a terrorist organisation and it should be wiped out. Communists behaved something similarly too.
The queen of Jordan is Palestinian .
‘Socrates says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 2:38 pm
Lars
“Would it be so bad if the Palestinians were resettled in Egypt and Jordan (with a massive aid package to help them get resettled).
Problem solved ?”
If that had been the solution it would have been done decades ago. (One of my friends who is Australian of Palestinian origin came from a family that first journeyed to Egypt. They left.)
Egypt is tolerant of Palestinians but not friendly. Egypt and Palestine are different ethnicities with different languages, culture and history. Egypt already has 100 million people and a shortage of water.
The Palestinians are an Arab people who would have more in common with Jordan or Arabia.’
——————————-
As yes.
The pattern of dispersal and concentration was, and is, a policy response to whatever ‘problem’ du jour Indigenous Australians are causing non-Indigenous Australians. It inevitably makes things worse.
As for DeNile Option, the reverse Moses solution?
Stalin set up a Jewish state in the Soviet Far East: Birobidzhan.
There was some chatter about a Jewish State in North-west Australia. No-one was asking Australia’s First Nations or, presumably, the jews themselves.
Oh, and Egypt does not want Palestinians. Nor does Jordan. No-one wants them.
I dare say the Palestinians would prefer to stay where they are.
davidwhsays:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 2:20 pm
Meher Baba rather than grandfathering I think the FBT changes needed to be means tested but on a sliding scale over 5-10 years. That would have given people who set up their financial arrangements in good faith time to adjust to the changes.
================================================
I wouldn’t be against a mean tests or as i said earlier a cap. I’m just against the biggest rorters of that system being able to continue to do so. While everyone else cannot. So you either allow it and have it means tested or capped. Alternatively you get rid of it. What i don’t want to see is it continued in a way that increases the already large disparity between the wealthy and everyone else in society. Which is what grandfathering would achieve:
Note: I’m talking about the reimbursement of excess franking credits as a tax refund by the tax office. I have no problems with franking credits being counted towards tax paid. It is just reimbursement of excess franking credits that is the problem here.
Lars
Palestinians have a lot more in common with Jordan than Egypt or Arabia.
However Jordan already houses 2 million Palestinian refugees among a population of 11 million. They don’t want more.