The post-budget polling avalanche rumbles on:
• Yesterday’s Financial Review had a Freshwater Strategy poll with two-party preferred at 50-50, unchanged on mid-April, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 14% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 37% and steady on 45% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down a point on both to 31% and 40% respectively. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 45-39 to 46-37. Twenty-four per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 46% no difference, but 39% felt it would have an upward impact on interest rates compared with only 11% for downward and 28% for no effect. Nonetheless, questions on which parties were better placed to handle various areas of policy found Labor doing better on the whole than last month, having widened their lead on welfare and benefits and narrowed deficits on economic management, crime and social order and immigration and asylum. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1056.
• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor and the Coalition unchanged at 31% and 34% of the primary vote respectively, but with the Greens down to 10%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with the Coalition leading 47% to 46% and the remainder undecided. Last time it was noted here that the 2PP+ implied an unusually strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition – this remains the case this time in lesser degree, my own estimate of two-party preferred based on 2022 election preference flows being 51-49 in favour of Labor. All the major initiatives in the budget recorded strong support, but only 27% thought it would make a meaningful difference to the cost of living. Sixty per cent felt only low and middle-income households should get the $300 energy rebate, with only 35% favouring it going to all households as per the government’s approach. The poll had a sample of 1149 and was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday – there will be more detail in the full release later today.
• After four successive weeks at 52-48, the regular Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 14.5% (up one) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1674.
Sour electorates the world over, whose theme song appears to be:
‘What have you done for me lately? ‘
So …
Freshwater 50 – 50
Morgan 50.5 – 49.5 to Labor
Essential 51 – 49 to Labor (estimated)
Too close for comfort?
Why did you leave out Newspoll, Oliver Sutton?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Growing evidence shows the Reserve Bank’s aggressive string of interest rate rises is hitting the job market harder than expected, with a sharp fall in new ads and a spike in the number of people fighting to fill those on offer, reports Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/job-ads-disappear-as-interest-rates-bite-20240520-p5jf1a.html
Anthony Albanese is stuck in the same quicksand that surrounded Scott Morrison two years ago when the former prime minister badly needed a budget bounce. The prime minister is winning applause for budget ideas such as a $300 household energy subsidy and a big outlay on housing, but voters are not holding out their hands to lift him out of the mud, writes David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-labor-s-budget-is-not-enough-to-reverse-its-two-year-slump-20240519-p5jeu3.html
Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s budget reply speech was an exercise in pure Trumpism. Unconcerned with truth, focused on stirring outrage and headlines, writes Michael Pascoe who reckons Dutton has gone the full Trump with fake news and false facts.
https://michaelwest.com.au/peter-dutton-goes-the-full-trump/
There are tens of thousands of pages to the federal budget. But a single paragraph on page 97, which could easily have been missed, demands to be read and understood by all Australians. A quite angry Shane Wright says it shows a decision by the Albanese government to fix a situation left by its predecessors that is beyond comprehension, and a stain on the Morrison government’s legacy. Read it and weep.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/page-97-of-the-budget-kept-me-awake-at-night-and-is-a-stain-on-morrison-s-legacy-20240520-p5jexd.html
Disposable income shot up for the richest 10% of Australian households after the pandemic, while the rest of the country found their financial situation going backwards, new analysis has shown. Today the Productivity Commission has released a new report, A Snapshot of Inequality in Australia, examining how income and wealth inequality changed because of the Covid-19 pandemic-induced recession and subsequent economic recovery.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/21/australia-income-inequality-pandemic-jobkeeper-productivity-commission
The mainstream media are fabricating disgraceful lies about Labor’s budget, argues Alan Austin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mainstream-media-fabricates-disgraceful-lies-about-new-labor-budget,18616
The increasing number of Grandparents paying private school fees has enabled elite schools to evade Commonwealth parent income tests determining the rate of taxpayer funding that goes to society’s most wealthy and least in need students. Trevor Cobbold tells us about private schools being caught in a commonwealth funding rort.
https://johnmenadue.com/exposed-private-schools-caught-in-commonwealth-funding-rort/
Given the shrill attacks on the government’s commitment to reinvigorating the APS, led by Angus Taylor, Jane Hume and Peter Dutton in the wake of the budget, the opposition should clarify its own vision for the future of the service immediately, says the Canberra Times’ editorial. It’s hard to take the Coalition’s APS statements on face value, it says.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8634912/its-hard-to-take-the-coalitions-aps-statements-on-face-value/?cs=27763
When it comes to migration, we must separate fact from fiction – and be sceptical of political tough talk, urges the ANU’s Alan Gamlen who says migration policies should align with broader economic needs, not serve as patchwork solutions echoing voter frustrations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/when-it-comes-to-migration-we-must-separate-fact-from-fiction-and-be-sceptical-of-political-tough-talk
State premiers have accused Bill Shorten of making hasty changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, warning that Australians with a disability will be worse off unless he slows his plans to clamp down on the $44 billion program, reports Natassia Chrysanthos.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/premiers-urge-shorten-to-put-the-brakes-on-ndis-changes-20240520-p5jf42.html
Nick Toscano tells us that one of the most significant attempts to upgrade Australia’s outdated power grid is facing fresh delays, intensifying concerns in the industry about the faltering pace of the energy transition ahead of an approaching wave of coal-fired power station closures.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/delays-building-renewable-energy-superhighway-raise-power-grid-fears-20240520-p5jf1o.html
The opposition’s current nuclear proposal is an unserious political wedge being used to pry open a climate war Pandora’s box. A new round of the climate wars would be catastrophic, writes Paul Farrow who says the Coalition must give up its nuclear dreaming.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/a-successful-energy-transition-needs-more-gas-not-moral-vanity-20240519-p5jeus
Peter Dutton’s cuts to migration over four years would cause a $34bn hit to the federal budget over coming decades, an independent thinktank has said. The Grattan Institute estimate backs the treasurer Jim Chalmers’ statement that Dutton’s proposed migration cuts would cost “billions”, which the opposition leader dismissed on Monday as “voodoo economics”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/20/peter-dutton-budget-reply-migration-cuts-cost-analysis-jim-chalmers
Property experts say house prices in an inner Melbourne estate could drop by up to 20 per cent after revised modelling for the Maribyrnong River catchment, reports Sophie Aubrey.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/home-buyback-scheme-floated-after-kensington-banks-labelled-flood-prone-20240520-p5jf2m.html
Nothing could better illustrate the intense irresponsibility of the Albanese government than this shockingly derelict defence budget. Anthony Albanese and Defence Minister Richard Marles have half convinced non-specialist commentators that they are doing great things in defence. This is the flat-out opposite of the truth. They are doing nothing at all. And are not even contemplating a noticeable increase in the defence budget until either the last budget of their notional second term, or the first budget of their even more notional third term, whines a hawkish Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/why-labor-wont-face-reality-on-defence-spending/news-story/55b3dd714a75631fb34956fce4bac968?amp=
There has been a certain inevitability about where Star casino finds itself – with corporate jackals circling the wounded gaming company. It could be that the kindest thing to do is let them at it, says Elizabeth Knight who has been closely following the sags.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-kindest-thing-to-do-with-star-is-to-find-it-a-new-owner-20240520-p5jf0q.html
One of the country’s biggest private debt-collection firms was warned by regulators to “immediately cease” operating in Victoria just weeks before it struck deals to buy debt from major energy and telco companies, a Guardian Australia investigation has found. Panthera Finance Pty Ltd, the nation’s biggest privately owned debt collector, is currently blacklisted from operating in Victoria due to a 2020 federal court ruling that it had unduly harassed three consumers for money they did not owe. But the Guardian can reveal the blacklisted entity, Panthera Finance, has continued to make major purchases of debt despite the ban.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/21/panthera-finance-blacklisted-victoria-sister-company
One of the biggest scam syndicates to ever attack Australia is almost invisible on the corporate regulator’s investor alert list. The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has failed to include on the alert list a warning about websites associated with the international scam syndicate that fleeced 34,000 Australians out of more than $200m, searches by The Australian found. The paper says German police sent letters to victims in that country naming websites Infinity CapitalG, Topmarketcap, Richmondsuper and Iron Bits as being used by the fraudsters in cryptocurrency scams, promoted on Facebook and elsewhere online using fake celebrity endorsements.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/asics-scam-alert-list-silent-after-34000-ripped-off/news-story/a048f31c007c50f94f58f2f40238781e?amp=
Dementia is the second leading cause of death for Australians aged over 65. More than 421,000 Australians currently live with dementia and this figure is expected to almost double in the next 30 years. There is ongoing public discussion about whether dementia should be a qualifying illness under Australian voluntary assisted dying laws. Voluntary assisted dying is now lawful in all six states but is not available for a person living with dementia. These contributors to The Conversation examine the case for their inclusion.
https://theconversation.com/people-with-dementia-arent-currently-eligible-for-voluntary-assisted-dying-should-they-be-224075
Three years after China’s property sector started imploding, Xi Jinping is finally doing something meaningful to fix it. He needs to do more, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/xi-jinping-s-ground-shaking-fix-for-china-s-property-crisis-is-not-enough-20240520-p5jexg.html
A man who says he was raped as a boy by paedophile priest Michael Glennon is suing Victoria’s parole board for failing to restrict Glennon’s access to children after his release from jail. Chip Le Grand writes that lawyers involved in the Supreme Court case believe it is the first attempt in Victoria to extend culpability for historical clerical abuse beyond the Catholic Church to the government statutory body responsible for releasing convicted paedophiles into the community.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/abuse-victim-sues-parole-board-for-letting-paedophile-priest-access-children-20240519-p5jert.html
Joseph Krauss looks at what the Iranian president’s helicopter crash means for the Middle East.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/what-iranian-president-s-helicopter-crash-means-for-the-middle-east-20240520-p5jewf.html
Alito’s flag shows the US supreme court is neither honourable nor functional any more, writes Moira Donegan, saying the upside-down flag at the justice’s house after the Capitol attack reveals how disgraceful the US supreme court has become.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/supreme-court-alito-flag
Cartoon Corner
Glen Le Lievre
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Badiucao
Peter Broelman
Andrew Dyson
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Newspoll is the outlier
Don’t worry everyone… the only poll that matters is election day remember 🙂 also Sheridan remains a hack I see…
Seems like there is about a 1% swing against the ALP baked in- which should put them in minority.
Any worse than that along the lines of resolve and it ends up in truly hung parly territory.
Now that the budget has failed – what does the ALP have to turn it around?
MM: “Newspoll is the outlier”
Yes, but it’s almost always been the most credible poll by a fair margin.
I think the swinging voters are a little skittish at the moment, which is why the poll results are jumping around a bit.
The government has its problems, but they don’t look like terminal ones to me. And Dutton is performing quite well, making good use of the government’s struggles in relation to immigration. But he doesn’t look to me like he’s done enough to win back government. And, anyway, there’s that small problem of all the Teal seats, most of which he is unlikely to win back.
So I reckon we’re still tracking towards Labor being returned or a hung parliament in which Labor would be in the box seat to form a minority government. I’d prefer the former, because I favour majority government: three year terms make it difficult enough to get anything done, and having to deal with a bunch of cross-benchers to get legislation passed puts another brake on progress.
BTW, Douglas and Milko, if you’re about.
Late last night I caught up with your harrowing, but inspiring, post yesterday about how you lifted yourself out of extremely difficult circumstances to become the highly successful person you are today. Tremendous stuff. I have known a number of women (including my beloved partner) who have been through something similar, but not with quite the depths and the ultimate heights of your story. Thanks for sharing it with us.
Best wishes
MB
Speaking of restarting the climate wars…
https://thewest.com.au/business/oil-gas/unresolved-approvals-saga-and-climate-dialogue-reset-on-meg-oneills-australian-energy-producers-agenda-c-14730608
A gyrating Peter Dutton’s ode to Lars, MM, Lord, FUBAR……….. et cetera
“Do the chairs in your parlor seem empty and bare?
Do you gaze at your doorstep and picture me there?
Is your heart filled with pain, shall I come back again?
Tell me dear, are you lonesome tonight?”
“Is your heart filled with pain
Shall I come back again?
Tell me dear, are you lonesome tonight?”
(with acknowledgement to Turk/Handman)
(And Elvis)
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/21/more-post-budget-polling-freshwater-strategic-roy-morgan-essential-research-open-thread/#comment-4281731:
BludgerTrack has 2.PP gov 50.6 and opp 49.4 (-/ +1.5 chg since 2022 Federal Election),
non-major parties PV/ undecideds ~31.2,
hmmm progressive alliance, minority fed gov with some crossbenchers …,
PM from 2022 quite underwhelming (PPM though), LOTO I wouldn’t have thought more electable than MAT to 2022, both neg net sat
Less than a third has direction of country as right?
https://johnmenadue.com/exposed-private-schools-caught-in-commonwealth-funding-rort/, one of my wife’s friends had a story like it. Grandparents paid for a religious school. Once no longer viable went to a public school. No trimmings and trappings, plus freedom from religion, kids both happier. Both went on to uni doing very well.
Thanks for the news round up BK. Clearly the Budget was carefully crafted to meet the economy’s current needs. Dutton’s response is what you’d expect from a plodding Trumpist. Labor governs. The Coalition destroys.
I love how seasoned posters on a psephology site throw away polls, MOE, and dont use averaged outcomes to determine the health of the current government.
Property experts say house prices in an inner Melbourne estate could drop by up to 20 per cent after revised modelling for the Maribyrnong River catchment, reports Sophie Aubrey.
_____________________
Ms Shing, tear down this wall.
Now surely Rewi we can take Meg Oniel at her word… I mean fossil fuel industries have always spoken truth about climate change and the environment:)
VCT, I’m trying to decipher your post. What does MAT stand for?
Mostly Interested – by averaged outcomes do you mean Bludgertrack?
Lynchpin @ #18 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 7:53 am
yes, yet oddly people in the comments section throw away polls at a whim.
MI thanks for clarifying. In my opinion the trend is away from Labor since the election but not enough to lose government if an election were held today. My memory of polls over the years has been (possibly with a couple of exceptions) that the polls tend to show a move away from the government of the day mid term then start to solidify near or during the campaign. What’s your view?
Another mini budget in March to help with the COL and Labor could well climb the mountain and deny Dutton&Bandt, Wreckers and Blockers their power lust.
Lynchpin , My guts says that the sugar hit of the S3 cash in pockets will make people feel a bit better for a good 6 months. That might translate to an 0.5 uptick for Labor. Then, and only then, if interest rates come down even 25 basis points before Christmas (and it is passed on by banks), I’m pessimistically confident of Labor returning with a working majority. If interest rates go up, all bets are off.
Possibly Boerwar. I think Labor has tried to present a responsible budget that helps COL and hope that the settings bring an easing of interest rates and inflation. The one area that is still “out there” is the difficult issue of housing…which has been a slow moving train wreck since Howard allowed housing speculation and cut funding to government housing.
RIP Frank Ifield:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q_7XGGbM7U
Thanks MI. I agree with your analysis.
I see that the Anti Labor gaggle is up and at ’em early today to try and influence the vibe.
#golfclap
86 is a good innings, Mavis.
Oliver Sutton says:
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 6:37 am
So …
Freshwater 50 – 50
Morgan 50.5 – 49.5 to Labor
Essential 51 – 49 to Labor (estimated)
Too close for comfort?
————————–
If opinion polling is accurate the Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote averaging 36%
Federal Lib/nats will be struggling to get over 55 seats
The SNP is facing major losses at the general election as Scottish Labour has opened up a 10 point lead, a poll has suggested. A YouGov survey put Labour on 39 per cent, with the SNP was on 29 per cent.
Polling guru John Curtice told The Times this would leave the SNP on 11 seats, with Labour winning 35 constituencies. The SNP won 48 seats at the 2019 general election but currently have 43 MPs. Labour only won a single seat in 2019 and currently has two.
The poll gave the highest Labour vote share and lowest SNP vote share since the 2014 independence referendum.
Redfield & Wilton UK Poll (19 May):
LAB 45% (+3),
CON 23% (+2),
Reform UK 12% (-3),
Lib Dem 10% (-2),
Green 5% (-1),
SNP 2% (-1),
Other 1% (–),
changes +/- 12 May
I tipped this !
Holdenhillbilly @ #30 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 8:14 am
Holdenhillbilly, is there any likelihood of Reform actually getting any seats? The UK FPTP voting doesn’t love minor parties.
Opposition will be happy all over the media post budget is the issues they want to be front and centre immigration,population excess and the fact housing starts are going backwards under labor.
The unemployment rate is now above four massive vote killer if it blows out people are already linking population increase to unemployment and underemployment.
Same failed ministers in place dragging labor down the two immigration ministers and Shorten and jones etc.Prime Minister is not popular or effective.
If they are good enough the opposition can win from here.
If the opinion polling is accurate Labor primary vote is averaging around 33%
Labor will likely get over the number of seats for Majority
Mostly Interested @ #32 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 8:20 am
Holdenhillbilly doesn’t know, they are just cutting and pasting from news sites.
Mostly Interested: All the analysis shows that Reform will get zero seats based on most recent polls.
Labour 472
Conservative 85
Libs Dems 50
Trump Media and Technology Group, the company affiliated with former U.S. president Donald Trump that operates Truth Social, reported $770,500 in revenue for the first quarter of 2024 and a net loss of $327.6 million.
Shares in Sarasota, Fla.-based TMTG — which says it is a “safe harbor for free expression amid increasingly harsh censorship by Big Tech corporations” — began trading March 26, 2024, on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “DJT” following its merger with special purpose acquisition company Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC). At Monday’s closing price of $48.38/share, TMTG has a market capitalization of about $6.6 billion.
C@tmomma:
Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 8:10 am
[’86 is a good innings, Mavis.’]
Agree. He wasn’t my cup of tea but was big in the ’60s, reinventing yodelling, and playing first fiddle to the Beatles.
Not to bolster the idiots here, but in a perverse way I can see how Dutton has set a trap for Labor on immigration. He’s set an absurdly low number he knows he’ll never have to implement, and in a timeframe he knows he’ll never have to implement. It isnt policy, just a statement in a speech. But it does tap into sentiment within the country that too many people moved here in the last 24 months whilst Labor was in government (regardless that LNP set the numbers beforehand)
So Dutton has set up a number that is meaningless, weaved a web of falsehood.
Now all he has to do is repeat that Labor failed to hit this gossamer target.
It’s a classic case of setting a false benchmark, the practice of establishing a standard or goal that is intentionally unrealistic. The opposition sets this false benchmark knowing it is unattainable, so when the governing party fails to meet it, the opposition can then criticize them for their failure. This tactic is used to undermine the credibility and effectiveness of the governing party.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-21/fact-check-peter-dutton-budget-reply/
Perhaps Albanese Labor could take a leaf out of the Gillard Labor playbook and gift everyone on the Electoral Roll $900?
Remember that exercise in Budget responsibility?
The Australian people always get it right, and no doubt they will in the next election.
Basically the polls are meh to both parties and looking at a Labor minority govt.
Pretty much the right outcome for the times.
The Coalition will lean on students who have finished their courses and failed asylum seekers to leave the country as it seeks to drastically cut migration numbers.
But experts warn cutting migrant numbers is, at best, a short-term, small-scale fix for the housing shortages plaguing Australians.
Last week’s Budget papers showed that in the five years from 2022-23, a forecast 1.6 million people would come to Australia, including students, backpackers and temporary workers. The Government expects net migration numbers to halve next financial from record levels in 2022-23, but the Coalition wants its cut even further.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton plans to cut annual permanent migration by 25 per cent to 140,000 for two years before increasing it to 160,000. He would also cut net overseas migration to 160,000 a year, almost 30 per cent lower than the government’s forecasts.
This net figure includes an estimated 46,700 permanent migrants – maintaining the trend of two-thirds of new permanent residents being people who are already in Australia – leaving 113,300 spots for people on temporary visas. Just over 88,000 international students have started university courses this year, and 50,600 have entered vocational education. Both parties have pledged a cap on international students, but the level is yet to be determined.
The Government has opened consultation with the sector about the cap and plans to require universities to build more student accommodation if they want to attract more students.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/coalitions-migration-plan-depends-on-getting-people-to-leave-australia-c-14731104
Lordbrain
Ain’t that the Truth (Social)!
Hypnotist: I did a good job, a good job.
Plebs: Oh well, it’s not your fault I suppose. You did a good job.
Badthinker @ #41 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 8:35 am
Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
You mean the Rudd government as a response to the GFC? A model that was proven so successful that nationals all around the world copied it. And then referred back to it at the start of the Pandemic a decade later? A model that had such great outcomes Morrison did exactly the same thing, except without any oversite shoveling a wasted $29 billions into businesses that didn’t need it?
You mean that $900?
So Dutton has set up a number that is meaningless, weaved a web of falsehood.
Now all he has to do is repeat that Labor failed to hit this gossamer target.
Dutton is an effective politician who can plan beyond tomorrow’s headlines?
Refer him to the ICC, perhaps?
MI, yes I see your point. However I think the universal reaction to Dutton’s ploy re migration is that it is reckless but possibly politically astute. Let’s see how the voting public embraces populism. If I were advising Labor I’d bang the drum relentlessly about skills shortages and at the same time repeat over and over its housing initiatives (which I think could be bettered) and focus on bringing inflation and rates down. We’ll find out in 12 months whether it all works.
Meanwhile the federal government and the NRL are closing in on a deal worth up to $600 million to secure a new NRL side based in Papua New Guinea. WTF?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-21/govt-to-secure-deal-for-papua-new-guinea-nrl-team/103871426
Mostly Interested @ #45 Tuesday, May 21st, 2024 – 8:39 am
Thanks you Mostly Interested. I was tempted to respond, but thought better of it. It was NOT everyone on the electoral roll. I got it but my OH did not. I think you had to have paid tax over a certain threshold.
You mean that $900?
Thanks for the correction.
Yeah, the Rudd Government – burnt down 236 houses, destroyed the home insulation industry, refused to meet with the parents of a 16 y.o. victim of their dodgy Technocracy.
Then there was the Morrison Government – doubled the Dole because there were no work opportunities and paid employers to keep workers on the payroll during a crisis.
But that’s bad, apparently.