There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:
• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.
• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.
• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two periodic elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.
• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.
On with the show:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.
• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.
• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.
• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.
• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.
Rex Douglas at 2.43
It’s easy to think of the major parties as corrupted, but evil is banal.
Maybe they genuinely believe they are making things better rather than in it to make themselves rich (of course there are exceptions!)
Maybe the Politicians are just doing what they always do – try to make as many people as possible happy, thus getting themselves re-elected. This is their prime skill. Leading people to a different view point is much harder.
Want cheap transport to Tullamarine?
Take the metro to Broadmeadows Railway station, then jump on the 901 bus to Tullamarine Airport.
This takes me a little longer than if I go by taxi/uber but costs only $2.65.
It seems Dutton Nuclear thought bubble will be another Scott Morrison/Angus Taylor big stick stunt
All talk , no details , no action , no existence
Lordbainsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 2:53 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/queensland-police-sack-qps-first-nations-advisory-group
Queensland police service sacks First Nations advisory group after members refuse to sign gag clause
Nothing to see here…
====================================================
If there is currently anything to see that they know about?. They will be able to tell us. As you have reported they didn’t sign a gag order. Which i assume means they are still free to speak publicly on any event they knew of before the sacking occurred.
Boerwar says: “Liberal Dr Badthinker…
… first line of a bad Limerick?”
OK, I’ll bite:
The Liberal doctor, Badthinker,
Of Kool-Aid was a huge drinker
He’d skoll by the pail
Which did surely entail
That every post was a clinker
(Well, you did say ‘bad’ limerick …)
Solarpunk
OS
LOL. I specified ‘bad’. Not ‘excruciatingly bad’.
Good advice, Leader.
The wheels are truly coming off in the UK. The defence department has been hacked and all the names and bank account details are now in the hands of the hackers. Sounds like it was China or Russia.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/06/uk-military-personnels-data-hacked-in-mod-payroll-breach
A shame we couldn’t maintain a car making industry.
Rex Douglas @ 2.35
Not going to argue with you that the system is fit for purpose!! Clearly it’s not.
However, there is an element of the Politicians being agreeable, hence listening to the lobbyists to avoid potential bad press later. Especially if it’s something they know the public has little knowledge or care about.
Which all sucks!
Rex Douglas at 3.35
When you say we, you actually mean the LNP!!!
Through the combined efforts of letting the currency rise through the resource trap to make the industry less competitive, and the LNP joy of screwing over a strongly Unionised industry, the LNP actively killed our automotive industry. (And my job at the time btw.)
All automotive industries are supported / protected by the Govts of the countries they are in. There is no such thing as a level playing field. The support the Aus industry received was comparatively less than in other countries and would have been a net benefit to the Aus economy.
Of course the first mistake was to subsidise a foreign car company way back in the 40’s. Would have been better with a home grown company with an eye on exports. Marsupial motors to the world:)
Leader – You have to go to Broadmeadows if you go that way to the airport.
The Airport has been uncooperative about the link, demanding an underground station. The problem is if the Suburban Rail Loop does make it to the airport it is also going to be underground too.
In April 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 99.3 (up 1.3pts since March 2024) just marginally below the neutral level of 100.
There were mixed results in April with businesses growing more confident about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year, but less confident about the performance of the economy over the longer-term over the next five years.
Now, a majority of businesses, 52.1% (up 8.2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months while 44% (down 10.3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – the best results for these indicators for exactly two years since April 2022.
In contrast, a record low proportion of businesses, 29.3% (down 9.6ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years while an increasing majority of 60.5% (up 6.4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ over the longer-term.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-business-confidence-april-2024
SolarPunksays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 3:39 pm
Of course the first mistake was to subsidise a foreign car company way back in the 40’s. Would have been better with a home grown company with an eye on exports. Marsupial motors to the world:)
======================================================
Holden was a home grown automobile company from 1898 to 1931 though. It became a subsidiary of US company GM after that. Allowing it to be taken over by a foreign company in 1931 could be the actual problem though.
>Note: Any one of pension age today. Life expectancy is going to be higher than the expected average for their cohort. As the they have made it this far already. Just like your chances of scoring a hundred are much higher if you are on 70 than when you first went out to bat.
https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-12/sgm-paper1.pdf
page 13
For NSW
81 Years at birth
81.6 years at 25
84.9 years at 65
91.4 years at 85
SolarPunk @ #1301 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 2:56 pm
Tempting to believe this is why the 2PP support of the major parties hovers a couple of percentage points around 50/50.
The one thing they are really good at is pitching themselves to the public to get votes – both sides are pretty well equally good at it, hence the 50/50.
However, increasing numbers of people are giving their primary vote to 3rd parties or independents. At some point this may well overbalance the carefully crafted equality – one major party and the others more closely aligned with them may get a clear majority and real change will become the price the major party has to pay for being in government.
SolarPunk says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 3:32 pm
Rex Douglas @ 2.35
Not going to argue with you that the system is fit for purpose!! Clearly it’s not.
However, there is an element of the Politicians being agreeable, hence listening to the lobbyists to avoid potential bad press later. Especially if it’s something they know the public has little knowledge or care about.
Which all sucks!
———————-
Read recently someone thought politicians are puppets. That would align with the fact that donations to Labor, Liberal and National Parties from business interests buys policies. These businesses get what they want, often with taxpayers money to help set them up. Certainty true.
The business lobbyists are allowed to wander the halls of Parliament House, can expect to be allowed access to any politician. Behind closed doors,
And the donations allow these parties to run well funded election campaigns to convince those many voters who are not particularly interested in politics.
If you don’t donate don’t expect to get much support. Where Environmental needs, stopping land clearing, good policies to reduce the effect of increasing global warming are mostly ignored by politicians in power.
“Housing is a market failure – the Govt got out of the way of private industry and here we are.”
From planning restrictions to negative gearing to first home buyers grants there is no way to say that the government got out of the way of the market on housing, quite the opposite, our current housing market is the result of endless government subsidies and tax policies pumping house prices while planning restrictions have suppressed supply.
Totes ajm. Australians are looking for it.
On the auto industry – as many global auto industries eventually learned including in the US, a domestic auto industry that can’t keep up with the world’s best on R&D is a mug’s game. You end up subsidising local industry or imposing tariffs to compete with superior imported product and either way the consumer loses.
A local car manufacturing industry tied to overseas parents that had economy of scale for r&d made a lot of sense. Letting it go bust due to the temporary mining boom effect on the exchange rate was short-sighted Coalition thinking.
Essential Report Federal Voting Intention Summary. 07 May’24
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
Greens 13%
Labor. 31%
Undecided. 7%
Coalition. 34%
Other/independent. 16%
2PP+. Labor 46%. Undecided 7%. Coalition. 47%
B.S.Fairman
“The wheels are truly coming off in the UK. The defence department has been hacked and all the names and bank account details are now in the hands of the hackers. Sounds like it was China or Russia.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/06/uk-military-personnels-data-hacked-in-mod-payroll-breach
As I recall a similar IT security breach in France was one of the reasons argued why we should not persist with the French submarine design.
Irenesays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Essential Report Federal Voting Intention Summary. 07 May’24
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
Greens 13%
Labor. 31%
Undecided. 7%
Coalition. 34%
Other/independent. 16%
2PP+. Labor 46%. Undecided 7%. Coalition. 47%
==================================================
Not really buying that 2PP from those primaries. Basically from the election Labor’s primary is down 1.5%. LNP primary down 1.7% and Green up 0.75%. Yet it claims those changes result in a LNP 2PP lead. Looks dodgy to me.
All eyes on Rafah
Since when does being against the Israeli gov’t mean that you’re an antisemite and pro Hamas …?
Arky @ #1321 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 4:15 pm
General Motors R&D was not reflected in Australian models. For instance, Australian Holdens finally got standard front disk brakes in 1973, 18 years after they were fitted to Citroens (1955). The drum braked Holdens could not stop, even once, from their top speed before totally ‘fading’ their brakes out. They were dangerous junk cars.
Australian Holdens and Fords lagged many years in getting braking and supension improvements that were standard in the USA and European models from the same companies. Many people died because they understeered into trees and poles, or lost all braking after long downhill sections of road. (Near Sydney, Bulli Pass, or Kurrajong hill, on Bells Line of Road )
The CPI will soon feel the effect of lower energy prices.
AGL reports record profit, probably generated by higher than needed prices.
TV adds have started offering discounts of approx 15% from competitors which should start the ball rolling.
Lower energy prices = lower CPI = lower interest rates = lower mortgage costs = lower CPI and so on.
The start of the virtuous circle?
https://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-jumps-after-earnings-boost-from-coal-power-and-new-big-battery/
Arky says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:15 pm
On the auto industry – as many global auto industries eventually learned including in the US, a domestic auto industry that can’t keep up with the world’s best on R&D is a mug’s game. You end up subsidising local industry or imposing tariffs to compete with superior imported product and either way the consumer loses.
———————————-
I have read most countries that manufacture auto’s subsidise them. Because of the useful skills the workers gain.
If we truly look at many industries in Australia, most get a subsidy or favourable tax deductions. We know Gina Rinehart has received over $1billion for her two mining companies – Arafura Rare Earths and Liontown Resources.
PM Rudd was eager to advance green cars. He would have subsidised the building of the first Toyota hybrid at the Melbourne Plant.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-to-make-hybrid-car-in-melbourne-20080610-14461/
Toyota to make hybrid car in Melbourne
Australian-made hybrid cars are set to hit the market in 2010, with Toyota set to produce 10,000 petrol-electric Camrys in Victoria.
Australian-made hybrid cars are set to hit the market in 2010, in what experts say will be an interim measure on the path towards a greener future.
After heavy government lobbying and tens of millions of dollars in subsidies, Toyota has confirmed it will produce 10,000 petrol-electric Camrys at its Altona plant in Melbourne.
The four-cylinder cars are expected to run on about 30 per cent less fuel.
And in 2010, Australia’s first locally built hybrid, Toyota’s Camry Hybrid, opens at nearly $37K
8 Feb 2010. By JAMES STANFORD
TOYOTA has rolled out the final instalment in its long series of teaser information about the Camry Hybrid, which was launched in Melbourne today, by revealing the all-important list price of Australia’s first locally produced hybrid. Toyota Australia has confirmed it will offer two versions of the mid-sized sedan, entry-level Hybrid Camry for $36,990 and the Hybrid Camry Luxury for $39,990.
Of course the coup against Rudd occurred in June 2010. After that Labor was looking for savings for a budget surplus. And Gillard cancelled the Toyota Hybrid production.
Entropy says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:28 pm
Irenesays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Essential Report Federal Voting Intention Summary. 07 May’24
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
Greens 13%
Labor. 31%
Undecided. 7%
Coalition. 34%
Other/independent. 16%
2PP+. Labor 46%. Undecided 7%. Coalition. 47%
==================================================
Not really buying that 2PP from those primaries. Basically from the election Labor’s primary is down 1.5%. LNP primary down 1.7% and Green up 0.75%. Yet it claims those changes result in a LNP 2PP lead. Looks dodgy to me.
————————————
There is no way the federal Lib/nats are going to get more than Labor in the 2pp
Lib/nats combined primary vote 34%
It more likely Labor 54 – 46%
…since Israel was created for the Jews by the Unite Nations following the Holocaust. There’s a hint in the name but that also needs you to have some knowledge of history as well.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:28 pm
Irenesays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Essential Report Federal Voting Intention Summary. 07 May’24
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
Greens 13%
Labor. 31%
Undecided. 7%
Coalition. 34%
Other/independent. 16%
2PP+. Labor 46%. Undecided 7%. Coalition. 47%
==================================================
Not really buying that 2PP from those primaries. Basically from the election Labor’s primary is down 1.5%. LNP primary down 1.7% and Green up 0.75%. Yet it claims those changes result in a LNP 2PP lead. Looks dodgy to me.
—————————————
Though i do note that Labor’s primary was same as there poll 2 weeks ago. While the LNP primary has dropped from 35% to 34% and Greens up from 11% to 13%.
Greens 13%
Labor. 31%
Undecided. 7%
Coalition. 34%
Other/independent. 16%
I agree, 54:46
31 + (0.8 x 13) + (0.5 x 16) + (0.2 x 7) = 54
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:02 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Since when does being against the Israeli gov’t mean that you’re an antisemite and pro Hamas …?
…since Israel was created for the Jews by the Unite Nations following the Holocaust. There’s a hint in the name but that also needs you to have some knowledge of history as well.
=================================================
If you are talking about the “Partition Mandate” they also created the state of Palestine too in the same mandate?.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Partition_Plan_for_Palestine
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Since when does being against the Israeli gov’t mean that you’re an antisemite and pro Hamas …?
I was going to say since fubar declared it the other night, but snap he just did it again. Maybe he has a bot ready to post that position whenever the word Israel pops up on PB.
Irene
‘If we truly look at many industries in Australia, most get a subsidy or favourable tax deductions. We know Gina Rinehart has received over $1billion for her two mining companies – Arafura Rare Earths and Liontown Resources.’
——————————–
Except she does not own 100% of those companies.
MI
Yep. FUBAR just repeats that furphy.
No shit !
Comments like yours, FUBAR, on Israel are part of the reason the moratorium was instituted.
Fact-free and intentionally incendiary, representing a minority view in the Jewish community you profess to defend.
But perhaps you prefer there be no discussion rather than an informed one, because the latter throws so much shade on the Netanyahu government.
I would say that some criticism of the Israeli state could be anti-Semitic depending on the language used and the context in which it is used. But that kind of nuance is missing in many – but not all – of your comments on this and most other issues.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:20 pm
Irene
‘If we truly look at many industries in Australia, most get a subsidy or favourable tax deductions. We know Gina Rinehart has received over $1billion for her two mining companies – Arafura Rare Earths and Liontown Resources.’
——————————–
Except she does not own 100% of those companies.
=================================================
A fact that has been pointed out to her before. So now it is just wilful misinformation. They are both ASX listed public companies. Gina has around 10% of the shares in one and 20% of the other.
Arky @ #1321 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 4:15 pm
Australia has deliberately de-skilled its workforce. Dump technical and further education, or else make it ridiculously expensive (of course, the government offers “loans” as a pretend incentive, but what good is that when the loans become impossible to pay back because many people can’t get jobs that make use of their education?). Dump the industries that required high levels of technical expertise or education, except (of course) mining. And most especially mining of fossil fuels. Encourage unemployed workers to enter these industries. If they don’t want to live in the back of nowhere (which would end up being too expensive, since it would require investment in regional infrastructure) then instead encourage fly-in fly-out, and just let the regions rot.
What could possibly go wrong?
I’m usually an advocate for doing away with state governments in favour of Local and Federal governments, but then you see shit like this and I realise our local councils just aren’t ready for adult governing.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-marrickville-or-newtown-sydney-council-bans-same-sex-parenting-books-20240507-p5fpkr.html
Entropy says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:31 pm
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:20 pm
Irene
‘If we truly look at many industries in Australia, most get a subsidy or favourable tax deductions. We know Gina Rinehart has received over $1billion for her two mining companies – Arafura Rare Earths and Liontown Resources.’
——————————–
Except she does not own 100% of those companies.
=================================================
A fact that has been pointed out to her before. So now it is just wilful misinformation. They are both ASX listed public companies. Gina has around 10% of the shares in one and 20% of the other.
——————
Barely matters. Was it because of Gina’s interest, even if 10% or 20%, that the Albanese government gave the $1billion plus to the companies?
Or do they often give taxpayers money to mining companies? As well as generous tax deductions.
Subsidise mining industry is Labor and Liberals plan. As many of the fossil fuel miners or drillers donate to the Labor Party. Not interested in subsidies for the car industry.
Tamboran resources, a donor to the Labor Party, has benefited from our taxes.
The Albanese government has come under pressure from the crossbench over its $1.5bn stake in a “sustainable” development precinct on Darwin harbour after documents revealed the project would benefit the gas industry.
Both the federal and territory governments have branded the project as a “sustainable” precinct, but documents released to Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show the Albanese government was told the development was seen as a “key enabler” for the export of gas from the Beetaloo basin between Katherine and Tennant Creek.
Gas is a fossil fuel, but donors needs must come first. Global warming mitigation low on Labor’s priorities. If at all.
Confessions
There’s a middle path: a greater number of provinces that merge local and State functions. 25-40 would be about right
‘Irene says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:46 pm
Entropy says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:31 pm
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:20 pm
Irene
‘If we truly look at many industries in Australia, most get a subsidy or favourable tax deductions. We know Gina Rinehart has received over $1billion for her two mining companies – Arafura Rare Earths and Liontown Resources.’
——————————–
Except she does not own 100% of those companies.
=================================================
A fact that has been pointed out to her before. So now it is just wilful misinformation. They are both ASX listed public companies. Gina has around 10% of the shares in one and 20% of the other.
——————
Barely matters.
…’
==============
We know that for you facts barely matter, if at all. You just make shit up and then slag Labor.
Kevin Bonham:
Essential (raw primaries with undecided left in, not on same scale as other polls)
ALP 31 L-NP 34 Green 13 ON 7 UAP 1 IND/other 7.
Their “2PP+” 47-46 to L-NP (=50.5 to L-NP (-0.5)).
My last election estimate 52.6 to ALP for these primaries (+1.6)
Pretty clear the rba killed off the springtime for Albo scenario of lower rates this year with inflation expected to be 3.8% by years end.
Labor’s running out of time – 12 months to the next election. Tough choices ahead as Scott says a premium for responsibility.
Does this mean people like what Federal Labor are doing?
Irenesays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:46 pm
Entropy says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:31 pm
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:20 pm
Irene
‘If we truly look at many industries in Australia, most get a subsidy or favourable tax deductions. We know Gina Rinehart has received over $1billion for her two mining companies – Arafura Rare Earths and Liontown Resources.’
——————————–
Except she does not own 100% of those companies.
=================================================
A fact that has been pointed out to her before. So now it is just wilful misinformation. They are both ASX listed public companies. Gina has around 10% of the shares in one and 20% of the other.
——————
Barely matters. Was it because of Gina’s interest, even if 10% or 20%, that the Albanese government gave the $1billion plus to the companies?
====================================================
No it wasn’t. It was because they are mining resources critical to the worlds switch to renewables. It didn’t do much for their share price though. You can buy into these companies if you want too.
Rewi @ #1344 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 5:51 pm
Perhaps. In NSW we are seeing a number of councils that were merged under the previous government now wanting to de-merge. So we’re going backwards!