YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A slight reduction in Labor’s two-party lead, but very minor changes overall from YouGov’s three-weekly federal poll.

A bumper week for federal polling, in which every player in the game has had their hand in, concludes with the three-weekly federal poll from YouGov. It finds Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 last time, from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 13% (down two) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 52%, Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and steady on 49%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 48-34 to 46-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1513.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

536 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 9 of 11
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  1. “So why do the liberals oppose decent wages in the aged care industry, for example, where most of the workers are women?”

    Here’s 2 reasons:
    #1. Increase costs for NH Operators above what they were expecting, Nursing Homes close and the Low Paid workers don’t have any work
    #2. Increase Wages way above what they otherwise would be, attract people into the industry who are only doing it for the money. Pretty soon, these types push the Low Paid Workers onto the unemployment rolls.
    Keep this in mind:
    Plenty of people work for job satisfaction, but in Labor la la land, they’re all venal serfs slavering for a few more pennies.

  2. Gympie

    The problem for the Liberals, the party that had a Treasurer embracing the neo liberalism of Thatcher and Reagan is that they cannot get their head around the idea that Scandinavian countries did for decades. Tax and Spend.

    Finland is reported by a not so left outfit as CNN as being the happiest country in the world.

    All those decades of attacking Labor for tax and spend suddenly look very bad as the pandemic forced the LNP under Morrison to be. A Tax and Spend government. Amazingly the country did not fall apart. Labor has already proved it doesn’t take long to bring back to surplus and can pay back. Much as I think they could have done a bit more spending and not moved to surplus in an economic path. Labor’s political view disagrees with me on the bit more spending part. Gotta pay for those submarines.

  3. wonder if emalia hamer is related to former senater david hamer the liberals dont have dynasties un like labor has goergina downer given up on becoming a mp

  4. Thanks Rex for your vale for Les Twentyman.
    I was a friend of Les as he coached me at Yarraville Football Club in the VFA in 1977. We were lucky to win the 2nds Premiership that year with Les! He was a good coach and a great mentor!
    Later in the 2000’s when I was a principal of a western suburbs primary school he was great help to our staff and parents when we had a huge and dangerous drug problem in our school area. He help organise welfare people and police to help us through these terrible times. He would continue to visit our school many years after these problems had finished and talk to our staff and parents about community support programs available to us. He would organise food and Christmas activities for our school community. I might say we got absolutely NO support for anything in our school or local community from the then Liberal Government who just ignored our plight like we our community didn’t exist!
    He was great worker for the poor in the West! RIP Les

  5. Lordbainsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 1:33 pm
    “To win back younger voters, Hamer has vowed to spend more time listening to those in their 20s and early 30s. She also hopes to convince voters in their 30s and 40s that the Liberal Party will be better at managing the economy, promising to lobby to eliminate tax thresholds that hamper aspiration.”

    As a early 30 yr old, I can guarantee that the only thing us millennials worry about is our aspiration being crushed by tax /s
    =================================================

    I assume this is sarcasm?. As the vast majority of 30 year olds don’t earn a wage close to where the Liberal aspirational tax cuts cut in. Which is at the 180k tax bracket that they want to remove.

  6. Entropysays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 2:38 pm
    Lordbainsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 1:33 pm
    “To win back younger voters, Hamer has vowed to spend more time listening to those in their 20s and early 30s. She also hopes to convince voters in their 30s and 40s that the Liberal Party will be better at managing the economy, promising to lobby to eliminate tax thresholds that hamper aspiration.”

    As a early 30 yr old, I can guarantee that the only thing us millennials worry about is our aspiration being crushed by tax /s
    =================================================

    I assume this is sarcasm?. As the vast majority of 30 year olds don’t earn a wage close to where the Liberal aspirational tax cuts cut in. Which is at the 180k tax bracket that they want to remove.

    Can confirm sarcasm

  7. @Scott

    Ronald Reagan left huge deficits from his time in power. The Cold war probably was factor in this but there was nothing fiscally conservative about Reagan, George Bush senior, or George Bush Jnr presidencies. The only president that left a surplus was Bill Clinton in the 1980 – 2008 period.

    The Liberals doubled the debt before the pandemic, and left a debt five times Labor amount by the end of their time in office. They can’t completely hide behind the pandemic. And Josh Frydenberg comments as backbencher, showed no mercy for the Rudd/Gillard governments during the GFC – in terms of debt. And therefore the Liberals should be treated the same.

    “both the Rudd and Gillard governments have displayed their addiction to debt” and that “the messages for Australia are clear: ‘Big government is bad government’ and ‘Live within your means before it is too late.’ ”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/may/02/we-need-to-end-the-fear-mongering-about-government-debt-in-australia

  8. ‘Victor Scholar says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 2:37 pm

    Thanks Rex for your vale for Les Twentyman.
    I was a friend of Les as he coached me at Yarraville Football Club in the VFA in 1977. We were lucky to win the 2nds Premiership that year with Les! He was a good coach and a great mentor!
    Later in the 2000’s when I was a principal of a western suburbs primary school he was great help to our staff and parents when we had a huge and dangerous drug problem in our school area. He help organise welfare people and police to help us through these terrible times. He would continue to visit our school many years after these problems had finished and talk to our staff and parents about community support programs available to us. He would organise food and Christmas activities for our school community. I might say we got absolutely NO support for anything in our school or local community from the then Liberal Government who just ignored our plight like we our community didn’t exist!
    He was great worker for the poor in the West! RIP Les’
    ————————-
    Good post, IMO.

  9. ‘Aaron newton says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 2:35 pm

    wonder if emalia hamer is related to former senater david hamer the liberals dont have dynasties un like labor has goergina downer given up on becoming a mp’
    ——————————
    Grand niece of Sir Ruper Hamer, aka ‘Dick’ Hamer. The latter was the first politician I saw in the flesh. The Victorian Liberal Government had organized concert tours for country high schools by, I seem to recall, the MSO. For nearly all of us it was our first experience of a symphony orchestra. I still recall the 1812 overture and Peter and the Wolf being part of the program… I thought it was absolutely wonderful. This would have been around 58 years ago. Sir Rupert opened the concert.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-royalty-picked-to-replace-frydenberg-as-liberal-candidate-in-kooyong-20240322-p5fekm.html

  10. Lordbainsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 2:44 pm
    Entropysays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 2:38 pm
    Lordbainsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 1:33 pm
    “To win back younger voters, Hamer has vowed to spend more time listening to those in their 20s and early 30s. She also hopes to convince voters in their 30s and 40s that the Liberal Party will be better at managing the economy, promising to lobby to eliminate tax thresholds that hamper aspiration.”

    As a early 30 yr old, I can guarantee that the only thing us millennials worry about is our aspiration being crushed by tax /s
    =================================================

    I assume this is sarcasm?. As the vast majority of 30 year olds don’t earn a wage close to where the Liberal aspirational tax cuts cut in. Which is at the 180k tax bracket that they want to remove.

    Can confirm sarcasm
    =============================================

    Thanks, for confirming. We can get some crazies posting on here. So occasionally what i thought was sarcasm turned out not to be. You sort of get to know who the crazies are after a time.

  11. Victor
    The passing of Les Twentyman is a great loss to Melbourne.
    I had dealings with Les many years ago and to be honest he didn’t look too well back then.

  12. Scepticsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    It’s dead simple… Musk is a fuckwit… period..

    https://www.businessinsider.com/don-lemon-tells-elon-musk-x-replies-are-not-fact-2024-3?op=1

    &…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWULulVp0-8
    ================================================

    What a tosser. A piece of fuselage comes off and it is somehow a black pilots fault. Are black pilots suppose to do plane maintenance work now?. I note it wasn’t even the maintenance staffs fault but the manufacturer Boeing’s fault in the end too.

  13. Boerwarsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:24 pm
    Hamer is just reminding everyone that Labor can never underbid the Coalition on taxes.
    ======================================================

    Another excuse for the LNP’s debt and deficit disaster during their last term in office i guess. Economics 101 if you cut revenue plus still give lots of money to your mates. You probably will run up big budget deficits and corresponding debt.

  14. This, coming from the man that stamps ‘Made in America’ on both the food packages and the bombs being dropped on the same people from the same sky.

    “Today we mark a painful anniversary. One year of American journalist Evan Gershkovich’s wrongful detention in Russia. Journalism is not a crime, and Evan went to Russia to do his job as a reporter – risking his safety to shine a light of truth on Russia’s brutal aggression against Ukraine.”

    Joe Biden

    “Today we should remember five years of Australian journalist Julian Assange’s political detention in England. Journalism is not a crime, and Julian did his job as a reporter – risking his safety to shine a light of truth on America’s brutal war crimes.”

    Rainman

  15. Trump shares violent image of Biden tied-up in the back of a pickup truck

    The image, posted to Truth Social, shows a kidnapped Biden in the back of a truck flying thin blue line flags

    …. in a post to Truth Social, recirculating a clip of a pickup truck in Long Island decorated with thin blue line flags and a decal of what appears to be a bound and kidnapped Biden on the tailgate, creating the illusion that the president is trapped inside.

    https://www.salon.com/2024/03/29/shares-violent-image-of-biden-tied-up-in-the-back-of-a-pickup-truck/

  16. Laurence Tribe ⚖️@tribelaw·

    This is what the monster just posted. A realistic picture of President Biden tied up helpless in the back of a van with Trump’s gloating mug in front of the scene. He’s threatening the president’s life. That’s a felony. If anyone else did it, the feds would arrest him. What now?

  17. Scottsays:
    at 2:32 pm
    Gympie:
    “The problem for the Liberals, the party that had a Treasurer embracing the neo liberalism of Thatcher and Reagan is that they cannot get their head around the idea that Scandinavian countries did for decades. Tax and Spend.

    Finland is reported by a not so left outfit as CNN as being the happiest country in the world.”
    Link?
    It’s dark half the year, did I read that Finland leads all Western Countries in rates of Alcoholism, Suicide and Deaths of Despair?
    Also:
    Can you define neoliberalism for me?
    Is it a Far Left version of Liberalism?

  18. Many thanks BW and Dee. I am very emotional over Les passing as he was virtually the only person who would step up to help us.
    We would come to school find people just lying around off their heads, ice pipes, bongs, empty alcohol bottles etc lying around and we were all left to deal with it!
    A local community group got a well known ex judge out to talk to the whole community and he asked the question to the people at the meeting – how much money has the Liberal government spent in the western suburbs to curb the ice invasion of our communities? He
    and many judges and other people were warning the government on what was happening in the western suburbs. Then he gave his answer – ZERO money had been spent! The audience were all horrified and there was Les nodding his head yes – True!!!
    Les was working with homeless teens before the MSM wanted to put it out there! Now there a Labor government in power after years of Liberal governments it’s all labor’s fault of course!

    I will be at his funeral to thank him for his tireless work in the west!

  19. ‘Rainman says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:38 pm

    This, coming from the man that stamps ‘Made in America’ on both the food packages and the bombs being dropped on the same people from the same sky.

    “Today we mark a painful anniversary. One year of American journalist Evan Gershkovich’s wrongful detention in Russia. Journalism is not a crime, and Evan went to Russia to do his job as a reporter – risking his safety to shine a light of truth on Russia’s brutal aggression against Ukraine.”

    Joe Biden

    “Today we should remember five years of Australian journalist Julian Assange’s political detention in England. Journalism is not a crime, and Julian did his job as a reporter – risking his safety to shine a light of truth on America’s brutal war crimes.”’
    ——————————————
    Moral relativism abounds.

    There is zero evidence that Gerschkovich committed a crime.

    Given that one of his accomplices has already done time and that Assange virtually boasted about committing multiple crimes, the same cannot be said for Assange.

    Whatever the other contextual merits or demerits, it does a disservice to Gerschkovich to force him in to the same basket as Assange.

  20. gympiesays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:51 pm
    Scottsays:
    at 2:32 pm
    Gympie:
    “The problem for the Liberals, the party that had a Treasurer embracing the neo liberalism of Thatcher and Reagan is that they cannot get their head around the idea that Scandinavian countries did for decades. Tax and Spend.

    Finland is reported by a not so left outfit as CNN as being the happiest country in the world.”
    Link?
    It’s dark half the year, did I read that Finland leads all Western Countries in rates of Alcoholism, Suicide and Deaths of Despair?
    Also:
    Can you define neoliberalism for me?
    Is it a Far Left version of Liberalism?
    =========================================

    More “Gympie” BS. Finland was ranked 38th in the world and dropping in 2019.
    You might have been right if it was still 1990 but it is not. The facts have moved on and left you again Gympie, living in the past it seems. Do you, like Elon Musk, get all your facts from X (formerly twitter)?.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

    https://theconversation.com/finland-managed-to-halve-its-suicide-rate-heres-how-it-happened-224708#:~:text=Finland%20responded%20aggressively%2C%20implementing%20a,and%20failures%20to%20get%20help.

  21. gympiesays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 4:19 pm
    Entropy:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate
    – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – –
    Takeouts from that:
    #1. U.S. the only Western Country with a higher Suicde Rate than Finland
    #2. Finland, with 22% more Suicide per capita than Australia, is a Model we should aspire to.
    Seriously?

    Maybe, just maybe, the suicide rates are not directly related to certain factors of the scandi nations that Australia should adopt…

  22. What is Trump’s view on Julian Assange? My bet is that Trump is more likely to release Assange than Biden is.

    People tend to view its just the Left that support Julian Assange. I do know that there are some in the Republicans that support Eric Snowden after disclosures revealed numerous global surveillance programs. Republicans and particularly Republican Liberaltarians are big on government staying out of people lives. I know Senator Rand Paul was one who spoke in favor of Snowden. Other Republicans who a pro establishment, and firmly believe in no undermining of government intelligence view Snowden as a traitor.

  23. Victor Scholar

    The west was lucky to have a humanitarian leader like Les Twentyman for so long.

    Celebrate his life.

    Support others like him who will support the underprivileged and guide them in the right direction.

  24. From what I can gather, Trump seems to want Julian Assange dead.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/wikileaks-assange-last-ditch-battle-stop-us-extradition-2024-02-20/

    His colleague Mark Summers said there was evidence there had been a “truly breathtaking plan” to kidnap or murder Assange while he was in the Ecuadorean embassy, and former U.S. President Trump had asked for “detailed options” to kill him.
    In 2021, Yahoo News reported CIA officials had drawn up options for Trump’s administration for dealing with Assange while he was in the London embassy.
    “Senior CIA officials requested plans, the president himself requested on being provided with options on how to do it and sketches were even drawn up,” the lawyer said on Tuesday.

  25. Entropy claims:
    “Note: The initial comment was on Scandinavian countries. Suicide rates in Norway and Denmark are much lower than Australia.”
    – – – – — – – – – –
    Scott @ 2:32 pm cited Finland as the happiest Country in the world according to CNN..
    Scandinavian countries weren’t mentioned and Denmark isn’t part of Scandinavia.
    Sweden and Iceland are also Nordic Countries.
    Swedens rate is 12.4 compared to Australia’s 11.3, Iceland’s is 11.2.
    Male suicide rate in Iceland is over 5 times the female rate.
    I’m sure you mean well, but i’m in favor of giving the Nordic/Scandinavian Social Welfare policies a miss.

  26. Did I read that Finland leads all Western Countries in rates of Alcoholism, Suicide and Deaths of Despair?

    Five seconds of googling should suffice to turn up the obvious answer to this question. But then, here we have a person who attempted to impute something sinister to the fact that Monique Ryan’s Wikipedia page contains no information about her date of birth, education and family circumstances, not a single bit of which is true.

  27. Gympie

    I cited CNN and if you want to look it up it’s in the article titled why Sweden is the Second Happiest Country in the world.

  28. Finlands education system is inspirational.
    I was there pre covid & was pleasantly surprised by the high value placed on parenting and the well-being of the children, the social fabric of the future. The prison system is also unique.

  29. phoenixRED @ #419 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 3:50 pm

    Laurence Tribe ⚖️@tribelaw·

    This is what the monster just posted. A realistic picture of President Biden tied up helpless in the back of a van with Trump’s gloating mug in front of the scene. He’s threatening the president’s life. That’s a felony. If anyone else did it, the feds would arrest him. What now?

    There’s a Trump version of the same doctored image. Only difference is that Biden would never share such content whereas Orange Crush has no hesitation.

  30. gympiesays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 5:06 pm
    Entropy claims:
    “Note: The initial comment was on Scandinavian countries. Suicide rates in Norway and Denmark are much lower than Australia.”
    – – – – — – – – – –
    Scott @ 2:32 pm cited Finland as the happiest Country in the world according to CNN..
    Scandinavian countries weren’t mentioned and Denmark isn’t part of Scandinavia.
    Sweden and Iceland are also Nordic Countries.
    ==================================================

    More Gympie BS. Denmark is generally considered a Scandinavia country (see link below). Certainly more often then Finland is. Scott certainly mentioned Scandinavian countries in his post (see below).

    “The problem for the Liberals, the party that had a Treasurer embracing the neo liberalism of Thatcher and Reagan is that they cannot get their head around the idea that Scandinavian countries did for decades. Tax and Spend.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandinavia

  31. Thank you, William.
    Haven’t checked Monique Ryan’s Wiki page since the last time I did so, but at that time her year of birth was stated as “1965/66” and her age as “56 or 57” and personal details were scant or non existen t.

  32. Dee says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 5:16 pm
    Finlands education system is inspirational.
    I was there pre covid & was pleasantly surprised by the high value placed on parenting and the well-being of the children, the social fabric of the future. The prison system is also unique.

    I could forgive the carbon footprint left from a Jason Clare flight over there to learn about this.

  33. Scepticsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    It’s dead simple… Musk is a fuckwit… period.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I am prepared to swap him for anyone of our “leading businessman/or women”

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