YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A slight reduction in Labor’s two-party lead, but very minor changes overall from YouGov’s three-weekly federal poll.

A bumper week for federal polling, in which every player in the game has had their hand in, concludes with the three-weekly federal poll from YouGov. It finds Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 last time, from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 13% (down two) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 52%, Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and steady on 49%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 48-34 to 46-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1513.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

536 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I am sure he was exposed to the belief that the followers of RL are bogans.

    Good god. Are you suggesting that Scott Morrison, having won Cook, carefully crafted a persona designed to appeal to the white christian nationalists in the shire who at the time were fighting muslims who deigned to catch the train into western Sydney for the sole reason of going to the beach every weekend in summer?

  2. ScoMo has had an epiphany on the road to Taipei..

    Days after China lifted its ban on Australian wine and signalled a strengthening of ties between the countries, ex-PM Scott Morrison has offered his views on the future of Australia’s biggest trade partner.

    Morrison told a Canberra-based podcast that China could become a multiparty democracy and that the Chinese people had no “anti-democratic” instinct.

    Morrison, who led Australia from 2018 to 2022, said the Chinese people “care just as much about freedom as we do” but “sadly in mainland China they don’t have the opportunity for it”.

    “There’s a view that some put around that, ‘oh, you know, democracy can’t work in Chinese culture’,” Morrison said on the podcast. “Well, that’s crap. I’ve been to Taiwan.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/i-ve-been-to-taiwan-china-can-be-a-democracy-too-says-scott-morrison-20240330-p5fgaf.html

  3. One for BW to consider….


    CNN

    Cruise vacations cover a range of budgets, with some bargain jaunts costing a few hundred dollars, while more upscale, longer voyages lay on more perks to justify the big expense.

    But a new offering by luxury operator Regent Seven Seas Cruises raises the price tag to eye-watering levels, with a suite on an upcoming 140-day world voyage costing $1.7 million.

    The cruise line is pitching this 2027 voyage as a “once-in-a-lifetime experience” on board its Seven Seas Splendor liner. Over 20 weeks, this cruise ship will visit 71 ports, including stopovers in Bali, Sydney and Mumbai.

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/regent-seven-sea-cruises-world-cruise-2027/index.html?Date=20240329&Profile=cnn&utm_content=1711749372&utm_medium=social&utm_source=threads

  4. Themunz says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 5:27 pm
    Scepticsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    It’s dead simple… Musk is a fuckwit… period.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I am prepared to swap him for anyone of our “leading businessman/or women”

    Well that bar couldn’t get any lower

  5. Oakeshott Country @ #504 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 6:11 pm

    Today I learned there are over 180,000 unregistered NDIS providers in Australia.

    Heard about this some time ago and find it utterly bizarre. I know participants are supposed to have the freedom to create their own customised support system but surely both participants and the taxpayer should have some assurance that providers are legitimate and competent.

  6. Capitalism & democracy aren’t compatible, the main reason being that Corporate Capitalism is intrinsically monopolistic.. the bigger a corporation gets the less competitive an environment gets.

    The ultimate manifestation is Capitalism’s support of Fascism in the US… including corruption of the judicial system..

    https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/amicus-with-dahlia-lithwick-law-justice-and-the-courts/id928790786?i=1000650876774

    It’s not quite red-yarn-on-a-corkboard, but given how often we’ve been thinking about the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) over the years, it may as well be. The group has become a vital component of the conservative legal movement, with pay-to-play access afforded to corporate donors to boot. Despite all the money changing hands and obvious conflicts of interest, few have heard of them – and that’s very intentional.
    This week we’re joined by Lisa Graves of True North Research to talk about how an organization representing the chief legal officers in half the states in the union has become a national policy juggernaut, pushing legislation and litigation to assist polluters, harm women and LGBTQ families, torment immigrants and even steal elections, all absent any significant oversight or consequences. 

  7. AJM
    Hard to believe compared to the level of governance (not always good but it exists) applied to healthcare.
    You would also wonder about the lost opportunity for economies of scale – many of these must be mum and dad outfits.

  8. I am a self managed NDIS participant. The gardening and cleaning services I use are able to provide suitable invoices, but are probably not registered providers.
    Similarly the groomer and vet that I use for my hearing assistance dog. Or the online services I use to buy his food and flea and tick medications.

  9. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 7:49 pm

    AJM
    Hard to believe compared to the level of governance (not always good but it exists) applied to healthcare.
    You would also wonder about the lost opportunity for economies of scale – many of these must be mum and dad outfits.’
    ————–
    The temptation to set yourself up as the lifetime provider of NDIS services to a relative must be enormous.

  10. Dee at 5.16 pm

    Finland is impressive comparatively in many respects, particularly education policy. However, the xenophobic Finns Party came second in the Finnish election last year and is part of the government.

    The Finns P have so few policies that they repeated some of their rhetoric at the start of this brochure:

    https://www.perussuomalaiset.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Eduskuntavaaliohjelma-2019_SU_In_English_1.pdf

    They are basically an anti-immigration, extreme RW outfit, like the so-called Sweden Democrats. They still have 18% in the polls. Imagine Hanson with 18% nationally, not just in outer urban Qld.

    Separately, in the first two years of the pandemic Finland had the highest discrepancy of any country in western Europe between reported deaths from Covid and probable deaths from Covid, based on an assessment by a large group of international health demographers. See p 1521 at:

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902796-3

  11. “The cruise line is pitching this 2027 voyage as a “once-in-a-lifetime experience” on board its Seven Seas Splendor liner. Over 20 weeks, this cruise ship will visit 71 ports, including stopovers in Bali, Sydney and Mumbai.”

    Did 6 weeks a few months back…the last week was one too many, I think I’d have throttled one or more of the entitled a-holes if we’d stayed any longer.

  12. morrison never lived in the shier un til winning preselection for cook grew up and lived most of his life in wentworth

  13. Socrates at 6.35 pm

    “In fact the former SU’s economic relationships with bordering nations, especially in the Warsaw Pact, were highly exploitative. IMO one of the less discussed reasons for Russia’s 1990s economic flop was they lost the ability to extort dubious deals out of eastern Europe post 1990.”

    This alleged fact is rather an opinion. It was not seen as accurate on either side of the Cold War, i.e. neither in Moscow nor by Russian policy experts advising the Pentagon and the US government.

    See for example this paper by Keith Crane, ‘Soviet Economic Policy toward Eastern Europe’, written at RAND and published in Nov 1988, a year before the Cold War ended:

    https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA231539.pdf

    “The Soviets have given the East Europeans more favorable terms of trade than those prevailing on world markets. One estimate of the opportunity cost of this favorable treatment runs 110 billion 1984 dollars for 1970-1984, although this may be excessive. The Soviets have also provided Eastern Europe with trade credits of roughly 14 billion rubles since the mid-1970s, during a period when resource constraints on the Soviet economy have been tightening because of slower rates of economic growth”. (p 2)

  14. An NDIS provider/ carer picked up a young autistic boy from his home and drove 1 hr to a seaside carnival on Aust day.
    Stayed 2 hrs. Had something to eat, went on some rides etc and then drove home. 4 hrs in total.
    Cost – $2800

  15. Taylormade @ #518 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 9:37 pm

    An NDIS provider/ carer picked up a young autistic boy from his home and drove 1 hr to a seaside carnival on Aust day.
    Stayed 2 hrs. Had something to eat, went on some rides etc and then drove home. 4 hrs in total.
    Cost – $2800

    Gotta love privatised services the Liberal way. 😐

  16. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 9:37 pm

    An NDIS provider/ carer picked up a young autistic boy from his home and drove 1 hr to a seaside carnival on Aust day.
    Stayed 2 hrs. Had something to eat, went on some rides etc and then drove home. 4 hrs in total.
    Cost – $2800
    ____________________________

    And how much did the actual carer doing the 4 hours work get – my bet about 5 percent of that.

  17. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 9:37 pm
    An NDIS provider/ carer picked up a young autistic boy from his home and drove 1 hr to a seaside carnival on Aust day.
    Stayed 2 hrs. Had something to eat, went on some rides etc and then drove home. 4 hrs in total.
    Cost – $2800

    ________________________________________

    What is the source and authenticity of this claim?

  18. TPOFsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 10:08 pm
    Taylormade says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 9:37 pm
    An NDIS provider/ carer picked up a young autistic boy from his home and drove 1 hr to a seaside carnival on Aust day.
    Stayed 2 hrs. Had something to eat, went on some rides etc and then drove home. 4 hrs in total.
    Cost – $2800

    ________________________________________

    What is the source and authenticity of this claim?
    =====================================================

    I suspect someone posted it on twitter or facebook. So probably made up.

  19. There are some big time NDIS rorters.

    Taylormade, in defence of LNP practices brought in while they were in government, just shot himself in the foot by exposing those rorts.

    Well done Taylormade!!

    At least Bill Shorten is trying to untangle that mess, but it’s going to take time.

    Publicise the lot, aged care, employment services and NDIS.

    Get the money grabbing profiteers right out of the equation!

    Hasn’t anyone ever learnt yet?

  20. Apologies if this has been debated to death earlier today but BK’s links tells us that Peter Dutton’s opposition is working on a “big stick” law that would threaten supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths with break-up powers for anti competitive behaviour.

    If the LNP is the party of big business, what are the chances that big business with divorce themselves from the Liberals? Of course there is always the possibility that Dutton is bullshitting.

  21. rhwombatsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:10 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #390 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 1:56 pm

    Hamer playing to her party’s strengths and Ryan’s weaknesses.

    And, in breaking news, people with lots of inherited money still think they can buy the votes of those with less, Greed is still good, and Generalissimo Franco is still dead…
    ————————-
    Ryan has been good at playing to her strengths and did well to avoid Frydenberg’s efforts to get her to debate economic issues and because the economy has been good for many people Ryan hasn’t faced much pressure on it.

  22. Granny Anny says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 10:59 pm

    I missed much of today’s debate and have only just read the article. It seems Dutton is under pressure from some backbenchers and the Nationals. Holding his party and the Coalition together is his number one concern. Matt Canavan about to cross the floor “to vote for a Greens bill allowing the break-up of supermarkets, banks and other mega-firms” is pretty interesting. It’s also interesting at a time when Labor just handed government to the Liberals in Tasmania without a fight because of their animosity to the Greens.

    Continuing on from last night’s discussion, as much some posters have the same attitude as the Tasmanian Labor party, it is naive to think that the time won’t come when the Labor party will have to deal with the Greens. Making deals is part and parcel of U.S. politics and it’s coming to a parliament near us.

    But back to Dutton, he is also remaking his image, in the same way Howard did with his ‘Aussie Battlers’, in his attempt to win over outer suburban electorates by taking on heartless big corporations to protect ordinary working families

  23. Yo Rainman!

    Labor works in very strange ways.

    Not happy with the sucky washy way they are going about things, but that’s how it is.

    End result is the betterment of all Australians.

    Sometimes it’s slow sometimes it’s quick!

    Little things lead to big things, patience is the key of order.

    Yes, I stole that, acknowledgements to all, so be it!

  24. Good to see you Been There

    Sometimes I think people here misunderstand me. I do bag Labor a lot, but they’re obviously a million times better than the Liberals. The problem with “Little things lead to big things, patience is the key of order” is it’s like footy, you can play possession chip passing the ball around but it only takes one interception to do you real damage. Chess is the same. You can play a careful defensive game but an attacking player only needs one mistake to check mate you.

    I like to think of Whitlam. He went straight on the attack and although he didn’t last long his achievements were as major as they were many, and 50 years later Australia is a much better place for them.

    Fortune favours the bold.

  25. Not going to argue with you about that Rainman.

    Can’t see any Whitlams coming out of the current Labor crew.

    All potentials are on a very tight leash.

    I could name a couple but don’t want to get them into trouble.

    Their time will come!

    Albos keeping it minimal, and so he should, MSM is a formidable weapon in propaganda.

    Eyes are blinking.

    Cheers all!

  26. What a wondrous week we’ve had in politics, we’ve had a stunted Labor (Vehicle emissions + immigration caving in to dud glow-in-the-dark spud) a munted lnp (any day
    of the week really) and the pure-as-the-driven-snow stunt bundt and shoetree green faeries…
    oh, the poor (economic) reffos let’s let all 80,000,000* of them settle in Australia. But big
    Australia is a big no-no *heads nodding in unison*

    fucking Marvellous 😡

    * they’re opposed to boat turnbacks

  27. Rebecca @ 10.32am – Friday.
    I agree regarding the formation of a Tasmanian Government.
    I loathe Tories and all they represent – but it would be political suicide to attempt to cobble together a multi-party minority government in Tasmania, especially one comprising possibly three policy free zones from the JLN.
    It was the ongoing uncivil war within the Tasmanian Liberal Party which was the reason for this early election.
    It has won 15 seats, at last counting, let them cobble together a fractious coalition.
    If this administrative arrangement collapses, as I am certain it will, let the ALP, Greens and progressive independents campaign on a return to stable, not chaotic, governance.
    Government at any cost is not a productive path to tread.

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