YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A slight reduction in Labor’s two-party lead, but very minor changes overall from YouGov’s three-weekly federal poll.

A bumper week for federal polling, in which every player in the game has had their hand in, concludes with the three-weekly federal poll from YouGov. It finds Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 last time, from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 13% (down two) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 52%, Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and steady on 49%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 48-34 to 46-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1513.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

536 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Musk is a Trumpist troll.

    We have enough trouble with the Trumpist style trolls in Australia without importing any more.

  2. Dee

    The prisoner per 100,000 is much the same in Finland as in the Netherlands. I am not sure whether the latter has open prison systems. It got the rate down by treating drug use as a medical issue. I am not sure how heavily it invested in actual treatment of drug issues.

    The Netherlands still has something of a policy issue with empty prisons.

  3. Days after China lifted its ban on Australian wine and signalled a strengthening of ties between the countries, ex-PM Scott Morrison has offered his views on the future of Australia’s biggest trade partner.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/i-ve-been-to-taiwan-china-can-be-a-democracy-too-says-scott-morrison-20240330-p5fgaf.html

    Hilarious. His PMship is what soured the trade relationship with China, which Labor has just resolved.

    And I see his era of silence has apparently ended now he’s left parliament.

  4. I googled Monique Ryan not long after she won Kooyong, William.
    Ryan’s Wiki entry was lacking in solid information at that time, which I mentioned in a previous comment.

  5. Confessions @ #453 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 5:38 pm

    Days after China lifted its ban on Australian wine and signalled a strengthening of ties between the countries, ex-PM Scott Morrison has offered his views on the future of Australia’s biggest trade partner.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/i-ve-been-to-taiwan-china-can-be-a-democracy-too-says-scott-morrison-20240330-p5fgaf.html

    Hilarious. His PMship is what soured the trade relationship with China, which Labor has just resolved.

    And I see his era of silence has apparently ended now he’s left parliament.

    Scott Morrison is a political opportunist and a sociopath. Just because he’s an ex-PM doesn’t mean he has either gravitas, insight or wisdom.

  6. Mrmoneysays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 1:02 pm
    Taylormade
    How’s the walking going for walk coming up
    My self wife and daughter just finished the great ocean walk 104km
    From Apollo bay to the 12 apostles through the Otways some very steep hilly sections at times.
    Good luck with your walk.
    _____________________
    Well done. Would like to do that walk one day. Totally self sufficient or was it a supported walk ? Do you use a pole ?
    Training is going ok for the 26km Surf Coast Trek charity event Anglesea to Torquay on April 13.
    Been going 2 or 3 times a week at 5km after work and then a long one on Sunday. Have done a 13km and 2 at 15.5km. Along the Barwon River path though, pretty flat so the steps worry me.
    But have just got back from 2 days gold prospecting clambering up and down some steep gullies at Creswick so am hoping that will help.

  7. Themunz @ #449 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 5:27 pm

    Scepticsays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    It’s dead simple… Musk is a fuckwit… period.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I am prepared to swap him for anyone of our “leading businessman/or women”

    Give me Mike Cannon-Brookes any day. He’s not a leach off government subsidies, is not addicted to Ketamine and he’s not a believer in White Replacement Theory. Good enough for me.

  8. C@t:

    True about SfM.

    Being the devious soul I am, I’m wondering if he’s going to snipe from the sidelines in an attempt to rehabilitate his image now he’s no longer in the partyroom 😀

  9. gympiesays:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 5:40 pm
    I googled Monique Ryan not long after she won Kooyong, William.
    Ryan’s Wiki entry was lacking in solid information at that time, which I mentioned in a previous comment.
    ===============================================

    Always leave some wriggle room at the beginning. It makes it easier to wriggle out of your story at the end. Unfortunately creating wriggle room now just makes you look extremely dishonest.

    Quote: “Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!” (Sir Walter Scott, 1808)

  10. If you are going to post a claimed verifiable fact you should check that it is still the case.

    The dishonesty of posting a statement that is now patently wrong because a previous version was politically convenient shows that nothing you post is worth considering. A time waster and dishonest to boot.

    Directed at Gympie.

  11. Confessions @ #459 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 5:46 pm

    C@t:

    True about SfM.

    Being the devious soul I am, I’m wondering if he’s going to snipe from the sidelines in an attempt to rehabilitate his image now he’s no longer in the partyroom 😀

    Kinda sorta. He probably devoutly believes he has the gift of the gab, god-given, and that he will be able to influence politics in Australia, even though he is out of the parliament now.

  12. TPPF

    As they say you can have your own opinion, but you can’t have your own facts.

    Fair bit of that from the usual suspects last few days.

  13. TPOF @ #463 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 5:53 pm

    If you are going to post a claimed verifiable fact you should check that it is still the case.

    The dishonesty of posting a statement that is now patently wrong because a previous version was politically convenient shows that nothing you post is worth considering. A time waster and dishonest to boot.

    Directed at Gympie.

    And the idiot was citing Wikipedia which can be changed at the drop of a hat, and therefore isn’t reliable as an authoritative source 😆

  14. Morrison rebuilding the brand?

    Doorstop at Engadine Maccas? Turning up for a Sharkies Game? Holding a hose? Bearding the Dragon? Learning how to count to one?

  15. C@t:

    The sooner SfM heads off the US the better.

    I wonder if he’ll turn up at a Trump rally, standing in the front row cheering him on. Or does his alliance with Pence (now persona non grata with Trump) render him a limp lettuce leaf?

  16. Turning up for a Sharkies Game?

    That’s one thing that won’t happen seeing as the Sharks cancelled his No. 1 ticket.

  17. I googled Monique Ryan not long after she won Kooyong, William.
    Ryan’s Wiki entry was lacking in solid information at that time, which I mentioned in a previous comment.

    Here is Monique Ryan’s Wikipedia page from a fortnight before she was elected. Even then, the only part of your claim that was true was that it didn’t feature her date of birth. Her education was described in considerable detail and we were told that she “lives in Hawthorn with her husband Peter, two step-children and a son”, all of which you were saying wasn’t there two years later when you were continuing to refer to what you claimed to have seen in the present tense. And now you’re pretending to have seen something convenient to your argument about how miserable life is in a country whose capital ranks up with the best on The Economist’s Quality of Life index, or any comparable measure you might care to cherry-pick. The only thing that was true this time was that the country is too far north of the equator, which you would have us believe is a failure of government policy.

  18. Ley is going to push for pilot parity. Current ratio is 1:10 with the aviation industry not only being a significant contributor to CO2 emissions, it is also one of the worst industries when it comes to the gender pay gap.
    This is your pilot speaking and I am a man.
    The policy, program and regulatory nuances embedded in Ley’s dreaded ‘push for’ will, no doubt be made more clear as the election year evolves. But perhaps, as for the nation so for the planes. I doubt whether we will be being piloted by quota girls any time soone.

  19. C@t:

    I suspect No. 1 ticketholder Morrison might have soured many sports clubs from doing the same with elected officials. The brutal way in which SfM was reportedly stripped of his ticketholder status was proof enough that he’d brought the status into disrepute.

  20. Rossmcg @ #473 Saturday, March 30th, 2024 – 6:07 pm

    Ley will no doubt ensure, in line with Liberal policy, only “women of merit” get a gig with the airlines.

    Surely she’s not advocating quotas?

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/federal-politics/ley-wants-more-women-pilots-to-take-to-the-aussie-skies-c-14137671

    You could not make this up.

    Don’t look too closely, just go with the vibe is probably what she’s after. Also, this is probably the Coalition’s big idea for a Gender Equity policy.

    Anyway, Australia is doing quite well comparatively:

    Globally, just over 5 per cent of commercial pilots are female.

    In Australia, that figure sits closer to 10 per cent, however, there are only six female helicopter flight instructors in the country.

    “The country with the highest representation is actually India, which is sitting at about 20 per cent,” says Natasha Heap, a former-pilot-turned-aviation lecturer at the University of Southern Queensland.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-14/next-generation-of-pilots-women-aviatrix-australia/100895430

  21. Arm wrestle in Saints v Bombers.

    Ugly spectacle.

    If the Sainters start kicking straight they should hold the edge at the final siren.

  22. Boerwar:

    You could not make this up

    They can spruik more women in the skies, but can’t do it when it comes to their own partyroom.

    And funny you mention pilot parity not long after it was reported the other day that the NSW Governor apparently narrowly missed another BBishop helicopter PR disaster.

  23. I see no point in engaging with gympie, whom I have to assume is an alter ego for Scott Morrison, given the reflexive dishonesty when challenged.

    As for Finland, IMHO they have as lot of social policy well worth copying, including education, child care (their “baby boxes” are brilliant, fines linked to taxable income, and so on.

    On suicide, there was a particular reason the suicide rate spiked around 1990. When the Soviet Union folded, despite claiming to replace them in all other legal respects, Russia defaulted on all the Soviet debts. “Those aren’t ours”. This was crushing for the Finnish economy, which was then outside the EU and traded heavily with the SU.

    Lots of companies went bankrupt, people lost their savings, and there was a severe recession. Unemployment was still 23% when I visited my cousins there in 1994. A lot of policy changes were made to improve the economy, Nokia took off, unemployment came down, and so did the suicide rate. It was probably the worst point in modern Finnish history, and thus a terrible comparator.

  24. For Ley it is personal.

    She wanted to be a commercial pilot but she flew into the glass ceiling. I don’t doubt that she encountered male discrimination and misogyny. It does make you wonder why she ensconsed herself in governments which were notorious for their encrusted misogyny. Stockholm Syndrome?

    Anyway. Pity about all that.

    Were she flying 767s as we speak we might have been saved from five QT questions from Ley to O’Neill which did not get off the tarmac.

  25. SfMs love of rugba leagu occurred after his election as member for Cook, prior and, I suspect, since he was a Rah-Rah educated at Sydney Boys’ HS. I am sure he was exposed to the belief that the followers of RL are bogans.

  26. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 6:27 pm

    SfMs love of rugba leagu occurred after his election as member for Cook, prior and, I suspect, since he was a Rah-Rah educated at Sydney Boys’ HS. I am sure he was exposed to the belief that the followers of RL are bogans.’
    —————–
    Good at faking sincerity?

  27. Interestingly it was a very close thing for Ley. At her first election for Farrer she only won by 206 votes over the National candidate Bill Bott in 2001, or going by percentage margins, 50.14/49.86

    Of course because of the Coalition agreement the Nationals couldn’t run against her again as long as she’s the sitting MP for Farrer.

  28. Perhaps if young women were paid more at the two jobs they likely to have to fund their flying training more of them might get to the career stage when they could qualify for an airline job.

    But the party of low wages would not be interested in that.

  29. She wanted to be a commercial pilot but she flew into the glass ceiling. I don’t doubt that she encountered male discrimination and misogyny. It does make you wonder why she ensconsed herself in governments which were notorious for their encrusted misogyny.

    She probably just took advantage of opportunities as they arose. A shame those choices have led her into a glass cage, but we’ve all chosen paths we came to regret.

  30. Taylormade

    Wife and daughter had my support ,pick ups and supply drop offs from me at certain points .

    Done over 7 days with a great deal of logistics to get into certain points.

    Driving backwards and forwards and back though the otways clocked up the kms on a lot of un made roads

  31. ‘Kirsdarke says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 6:30 pm

    Interestingly it was a very close thing for Ley. At her first election for Farrer she only won by 206 votes over the National candidate Bill Bott in 2001, or going by percentage margins, 50.14/49.86

    Of course because of the Coalition agreement the Nationals couldn’t run against her again as long as she’s the sitting MP for Farrer.’
    ——————
    Indeed and then only saved by Five Ministers from pre-selection doom. But luck’s a fortune and she is now the Deputy Leader of the Liberals. If this sort of lucky streak holds we might be looking at Prime Minister Ley before very long. Nothing like riding your talent all the way to the top of the pile in our meritocracy.

  32. Boerwar

    “ Thanks for that. I hadn’t realized that bit about Finland. Crap historial luck to share a border with Russia.”

    Yes. When they aren’t invading you, they are trying to rip you off.

    In fact the former SU’s economic relationships with bordering nations, especially in the Warsaw Pact, were highly exploitative. IMO one of the less discussed reasons for Russia’s 1990s economic flop was they lost the ability to extort dubious deals out of eastern Europe post 1990.

    The Warsaw Pact included economic arrangements as well as military, and Moscow made all the rules. They were “agreed” at Congresses that were purely for show.

  33. Of course because of the Coalition agreement the Nationals couldn’t run against her again as long as she’s the sitting MP for Farrer.

    Another reason for the parties to adopt quotas.

  34. ‘Sohar says:
    Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 6:31 pm

    Rex: “I’d rather Monique Ryan as Prime Minister than either A-list Albo or MAGA Dutton.”

    Seconded.’
    —————-
    Manage Australia? Ryan couldn’t even manage Sally Rugg.

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