The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Personal ratings are little changed, with Anthony Albanese up one on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Peter Dutton steady at 37% and up one to 52%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 47-35 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1223.
Resolve Poll – does not calculate 2PP
The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, found Labor’s primary vote had fallen from 34 to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s from 37 to 35 per cent.
Support for the Greens rose from 11 to 13 per cent while One Nation slipped from 6 to 5 per cent and independent candidates rose from 9 to 11 per cent.
Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at an election, with choices offered in random order, there is no undecided category in the results, a key difference with some other surveys.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-personal-rating-slips-as-frustration-with-major-parties-grows-20240325-p5fexm.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true
Resolve PPM
Albo -40
Spud – 30
‘Player One says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 6:01 pm
Boerwar @ #220 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 4:34 pm
The Teals ran on climate, corruption and women’s issues.
The Teals will run on the same issues next election,…’
——————–
I hope they do.
Now it’s boiled down and the results are in, it’s time for my controversial weigh-in to the issue.
Rockliff was right in calling the election. Tasmanians (excluding me, I like a bit of chaos, hence why I frequent here) hate people who rock the boat, hence why John Tucker went and Greg Quinn got more votes than Lara Alexander in Bass (seriously, look the guy up). There was a real chance more people left either major party, more grow disillusioned and the more chaos out there at the next election. Might be shambles now, but better that than dust and ashes in the future.
1. Cassy O’Connor is no longer scrarching her way through the ABC broadcast and I’m so so glad.
2. Felix Ellis does wonders in primaries even against a premier popular in his electorate. This guy is hopefully the future of the Liberal party. Cool headed, incumbent, impressive portfolio… He’s going places.
3. I’m really wanting to find out what portfolios Eric Abetz is given. Hopefully the environment.
4. ABC broadcasters have no idea. Here they are spouting forth about how the Liberals what to introduce a law where you are kicked from the party the moment you cross the floor… Tripe. Absolute tripe. Go get them a real job.
5. Rebecca White is going. Somebody is going to Rudd/Gillard/Rudd her now that she’s Shortened herself. “We’re the underdogs.” You never had a chance, luv.
6. David O’Byrne sounds reasonable, especially regarding stability. More reasonable than Alexander/Tucker. Glad it’s him and not them.
7. ABC broadcasters have no idea pt 2. Asking David O’Byrne if he would consider rejoining the Labor party. Hahahaha honestly that gave me fits and giggles.
8. JLN can go jump. Honestly. Big-tent populists with not a single policy document. “That’s bloody bulls**t” yourself luv.
9. 35 seats was a bad idea.
10. Mandatory preferential voting is a bad idea.
11. The donkey vote is too real, and, yes, a bad idea.
12. Michael Ferguson surely deserves leadership at this point. Hanging round as deputy for years and not giving it a go.
13. Why is the media (everybody) suddenly freaking out about this Newspoll minority thing? It’s one poll, it’s been like this for ages, it’s a point in the general trend, why suddenly now. It’s like the presenters suddenly have ‘minority government’ in their Google feed and they saw this poll result. And since minority governments are now real, let’s report out hearts out!!!
14. Not ideal but it happened. Can’t complain, I guess, luckier than those foolish Labor supporters, you got what you deserved more with Rebecca White as leader. Yeah, sucked in
15. Antony Green needs to do a consistent broadcast for our sakes.
Melbourne United fans,…….
SUCKED IN!! SUCKED IN!!! AND THE NEXT GAMES IN TASSIE!!! SUCKED IN! We are so definitely winning.
(That’s my daily load of steam, take it as you will)
Resolve back of envelope. 32 + 13 x .85 + 5 x .35 + 11 x .5 = 32 + 11 + 3 + 5.5
ALP 51.5
LNP 48.5
I must apologfise for an error in my earlier post on the Dunstan update. What I thought was the update was in fact a projection, the update with pre-polls added has only just been posted on the AEC website.
Now the Dunstan vote has just been updated for the pre-polls, which did favour the Liberals. The result is now in from 54/46 to 52.5/47.5, still to Labor. Pre-polls broke quite sharply to Liberals today (58/42). No concession yet.
https://result.ecsa.sa.gov.au/
Herding…
Both Morgan and Resolve have
ALP 51.5
LNP 48.5
Newspoll
ALP 51
LNP 49
The kelpie is snapping at their heels
Back in the day there was much discussion about the ‘Masada Complex’. That seems to have disappeared for a couple of decades. In something of a tectonic shift over 300,000 Israeli citizens have applied for gun licences since October 7.
https://www.commentary.org/articles/robert-alter-2/the-masada-complex/
Labor’s primary barely over 30%.
The fossil fuel influence is like a cancer.
Renters feel abandoned.
The spending on AUKUS is mindboggling for many.
People are rejecting modern day Labor values.
Dr Doolittle’
In my reply to you regarding that Criey piece by Mr Rundle experts should have had quotation marks around them. Sorry.
Resolve may have used the Pollbludger commenters as a sample, given these comments….
Reed said the results highlighted a level of dissatisfaction with both major parties, with respondents criticising both sides in their written responses to the online survey.
“The major parties are both the same. You can’t trust either of them any more,” one respondent said. Another said: “I’m trying to size up who’s the least worst out of a bad bunch.” A third wrote: “The two parties look after the rich and those on low incomes, but never the middle earners.” A fourth said: “I haven’t changed my mind yet, but I’ve been pretty disappointed with Labor.”
Asked how they rated Albanese, 38 per cent of people said his performance was good and 49 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good” rating, fell to minus 11 percentage points.
Asked about Dutton, 36 per cent of people said his performance was good and 44 per cent said it was poor. His net result improved to minus 9 percentage points from minus 11 points one month ago.
You have to love preferential voting systems. Where else could a significant and broad shift to the left in the wider electorate result in an extremely unpopular and far right opposition leader still being competitive for forming a government.
WTAF?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/25/nsw-police-commissioner-media-adviser-appointment-steve-jackson-under-review
Mark Coulton, Nationals MP for Parkes quitting…
2nd LNP member to pull up stumps today, after Rowan Ramsey in Grey.
Not prepared for another 3 years of disheartening Opposition…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-liberals-nationals-go-cold-on-nuclear-experts-want-treasurer-to-overhaul-tax-system-to-end-bracket-creep-20240325-p5fewa.html
The Teals won seats that Labor had little or no chance of winning. I don’t think that Labor such waste to many resources in seats with a sitting Teal. If the Teal is unseated, it will be a Liberal who is returned, not a Laborite or a Green. Better to direct efforts towards counter Dutton’s “MAGA” strategy in outer suburban and regional Labor seats while targeting Liberals in swinging seats.
Boerwar @ #243 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 5:54 pm
And Irene spends her time here creating false narratives about Labor.
My reading of the Resolve poll is that the electorate wants the Labor Party to be more visionary and to propose Green-tinged policies, but not to go the full Green.
Daniel Plainviewsays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 6:38 pm
You have to love preferential voting systems. Where else could a significant and broad shift to the left in the wider electorate result in an extremely unpopular and far right opposition leader still being competitive for forming a government.
———————–
Maybe there isn’t a shift to the left and the polling might look close but there’s little in the polling pointing to the LNP picking up 18 seats.
Slip slidin, Slip sliding away…
Crucial quote from Dave Milner from The Shot that we should think of with media and also commentary about it.
I don’t think that the electorate is shifting to the left. What’s happening is that one of the two centrist parties has decided to jump to the right and has lost sight of its broad mass of voters. Those voters are still searching around for a conservative (slightly right of centre) party to switch their loyalty to. They certainly aren’t shifting to Labor.
The Teals need to get themselves properly organised as a national right-of-centre party and they’ll romp in.
The Teals will disappear with the wind.
Reason: they’ve got no Political Power, no organisation and no principles.
Climate change and corruption are Feminine Issues, they’ve had 2 years and achieved nothing, so what record are they going to stand on for reelection?
Spender can hold the seat as a Liberal, but the rest have just wasted their time shouting at clouds and being angry about something.
With the exception of the David Pocock’s of the world I feel the phrase ‘centrist’ is just political code for a milder variety of centre -right ideologies. Regarding David Pocock I find his political maturation fascinating. With the exception of his family mainly Engels and mine boer we had very similar lives- our family farms less than 10km apart outside Gweru and both from conservative leaning RF family lines and our brothers played against each other in local rugby and cricket teams. Our family left 3 months after his.
For those of us that don’t have a hate-boner for Labor and the Teals, it’s clear that they’re at least coordinating with the crossbench Senators to create constructive legislation that can cross both houses.
While Labor holds a majority, they do hold the Teals with respect for most of the time, and that will be important for the years ahead.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:21 pm
Slip slidin, Slip sliding away…
”
Duly noted for future criticism
Common factor between Australian, Uk & US politics.. the false belief that conservatives are better at managing the economy…
deep State Radio :Paul Krugman
In recent days, Donald Trump opened the door to cutting Social Security, and he’s also threatened to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which would throw millions off health insurance. All this comes as President Biden’s economy is doing quite well by many metrics. Yet Trump is favored on the economy, and his MAGA support remains solid, even though his policies would badly sell out his base. We talked to New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, author of a series of columns about the economies under Trump and Biden, who helps us make sense of all these disconnects.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000650337982
Lars at 4.29 and 7.21 pm, Cat at 7.12 pm
Your 1% drop after prefs is only 0.5% according to Dr Bonham. Remember that politics, particularly in a non-proportional system, is not maths. It has additional factors, including incumbency. That is one key difference between federal and Tassie Labor. Other differences are internal divisions in the latter, and a chronic weakness in about half the electorate, or at least 40% (Bass and particularly Braddon). Federal Labor has chronic weakness only in Qld. The LNP is almost the reverse, very strong in Qld and not much to show for itself elsewhere.
Albo is no visionary. I have that on the authority of Labor Party members disappointed with what he has managed to do in various areas. But name the visionaries who have succeeded as Australian PMs. In the past 50 years there is only one, Whitlam. Keating had a bit of vision but not much of it, in the end, was realised, in the sense of a continuing legacy. Hawke had a well-cultivated public appeal, or persona, more than vision (according to Neal Blewett, Hawke was notoriously anti-intellectual).
In the end the comparison for Albo is with J.W. Howard, not a visionary’s bootlace, but a repository of both luck and cunning. Albo is currently doing better than Howard after two years, and his opposition is doing worse than Howard’s was, especially due to the Teals and the way Dutton campaigns for them.
Luigi Smith says:
“I don’t think that the electorate is shifting to the left. What’s happening is that one of the two centrist parties has decided to jump to the right and has lost sight of its broad mass of voters.”
– — – — — —
Labor was taken over by Communists in the 1950s and they’ve never relinquished control.
The Liberal Party had an excess of Leftists, most of them were defeated in 2022.
So, no, the Party didn’t move to the Right, the Electorate rejected the Leftists in the Party.
See: Falinski, Evans, Zimmerman, Frydenburg, Wilson, Katie Allen, Celia Hammond, Dave Sharma, Ken Wyatt & Julian Simmonds, but the National Party retained all it’s seats.
2022 wasn’t a memo from the electorate to go even further left, it was a message to move a little to the Right.
@Gympie at 8:08pm
Ye gods you’re so full of shit.
Gympie, of course you’re correct. My mistake.
I wonder if there will ever be a catalyst as there was with Timor L’Este for West Papuan independence.
“The short videos depict a man in a barrel of water unable to defend himself being brutally beaten by a group of five men, who also taunt him with racist slurs.
“One man tells the others to be patient because they’ll all have their turn.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-25/indonesia-investigate-viral-video-west-papua-torture/103630640
Not much chance of Australian condemnation I suppose…
“The ABC has contacted the office of Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles, who is currently negotiating a closer military cooperation deal with Indonesia, for comment.”
Albanese does have a vision, IMO.
Despite all the whinging, caterwauling, bitching and moral panic merchants running rampant, there are some remarkable attributes to the first Albanese Government.
We are nearly two years in and there has been 100% ministerial stability.
We are nearly two years in and not a single minister has run into corruption problems.
We are nearly two years in and the vast majority of ministers are competent, across their briefs and driving reforms.
We are nearly two years in and unemployment, inflation, wages growth and the Budget management are all in very good shape.
For the first time in our history there is climate action across a range of fronts.
We are nearly two years in and the vast majority of the major promises have been kept.
Scott at 2.17 and 6.36 pm
Fine. The number of experts is significantly less that the number of people who are touted as experts.
Look at this article below, which features a political scientist at UTas, Dr Kate Crowley, describing the contrasting campaigns of the Libs (slick and reiterative, even to the point of absurdity according to Dr Bonham in his summary of their campaign on his Chaos page) and Labor (folksy and lacking in focus).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/tasmanian-election-campaign-strategic-liberals-folksy-labor/103570032
What is interesting is that both campaigns failed. That is why Lambie, purely a protest vessel without a rudder let alone a mast, has won two or perhaps three seats.
The outcome is Lyons is still unclear. “Labor’s massively greater leakage risk suggests that JLN should be favourites on current votes unless their ticket is much leakier than Labor’s – which could yet be the case – or unless they fall back in late counting.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/2024-tasmania-postcount-lyons.html
Boerwar at 8.17 pm
What you have documented is discipline and good team management but not vision. Similar to Howard.
‘Rewi says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:14 pm
I wonder if there will ever be a catalyst as there was with Timor L’Este for West Papuan independence.
“The short videos depict a man in a barrel of water unable to defend himself being brutally beaten by a group of five men, who also taunt him with racist slurs.
“One man tells the others to be patient because they’ll all have their turn.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-25/indonesia-investigate-viral-video-west-papua-torture/103630640‘
————————-
There is zero chance that Indonesia would tolerate West Papuan independence.
Luigi Smith:
“Gympie, of course you’re correct. My mistake.”
Well no he isn’t correct. Gympie spewed up a farrago of absolute bullshit at 8:08 pm.
Many of the MPs Gympie mentioned lost their seats because the Liberal Party had shifted to the right, and their socially progressive electorates were having none of it.
Celia Hammond a Leftist? Tim Wilson a Leftist? LOL! 😀
A growing number of Australians are simply fed up with the “major parties”. All we get from them is “business as usual” and some tinkering around the edges to make it look like they are care about the general population. Both parties are entirely captured by well-heeled interest groups. Labor is a few steps to the left of the L/NP, but Labor these days is a purely Centrist party. Labor is not “progressive” in any way, shape or form. Labor is still the better option of the two “major parties” but does not deserve a No. 1 vote, hence their consistently poor primary vote in all polls.
On Albo’s supposedly non-existent policy agenda, there is this very clever piece that is being refined at the minute:
https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/expanded-capacity-investment-scheme-cis-design-paper
gympiesays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:08 pm
Luigi Smith says:
“I don’t think that the electorate is shifting to the left. What’s happening is that one of the two centrist parties has decided to jump to the right and has lost sight of its broad mass of voters.”
– — – — — —
Labor was taken over by Communists in the 1950s and they’ve never relinquished control.
The Liberal Party had an excess of Leftists, most of them were defeated in 2022.
So, no, the Party didn’t move to the Right, the Electorate rejected the Leftists in the Party.
See: Falinski, Evans, Zimmerman, Frydenburg, Wilson, Katie Allen, Celia Hammond, Dave Sharma, Ken Wyatt & Julian Simmonds, but the National Party retained all it’s seats.
2022 wasn’t a memo from the electorate to go even further left, it was a message to move a little to the Right.
——————
Conservatives push this nonsense but misreads the election result because if the electorate wanted the Liberals to shift to the right the voters would have swung to right lending candidates but they did the opposite.
West Papua independence is incompatible with the Echidna Strategy.
Rewi at 8.14 pm
“I wonder if there will ever be a catalyst as there was with Timor L’Este for West Papuan independence.”
Lord Downer once referred, in a speech around about spring 2000, to the decolonisation of Indonesia. He never repeated the phrase.
Sadly, while the comparison of East Timor and West Papua is strong in international law, based on the right of a distinct people to self-determination and the obvious way this was denied in 1969 in West Papua, with the complicity of the UN, that latter fact shows the political differences.
It took a long time and a lot of luck (e.g. the APEC summit in Auckland in 1999 being held two months earlier than most APEC summits have been held) for the East Timorese to achieve self-determination.
There was a broad international coalition in the end supporting East Timor, including Portugal with some influence in the EU, whereas the West Papuans have little support beyond parts of Melanesia.
West Papua independence is incompatible with the Echidna Strategy.
‘Dr Doolittle says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:19 pm
Boerwar at 8.17 pm
What you have documented is discipline and good team management but not vision. Similar to Howard.’
—————————————
IMO, the vision is a fairer society, an uncorrupt society, women taking their just place in the world, workers supported by the state, minorities embraced, no-one left behind, and public provision of health and education, all based on a functioning economy along with rational progress towards zero net fifty.
The ‘light on the hill’, ‘reach for the stars’ kind of language is lacking. The charisma is lacking.
But so is the bullshit and blatherskiting. This is a WYSIWIG government. Their words mean what they say. The values are there and so is the vision, IMO. The values are good, IMO. So is the vision.
It is also a government driven by 15 years of messaging under various prime ministers. If you want something positive to stick you have to bed it down for at least two terms.
Just saw ADF Ad on SBS.. Slow motion shot of Army personnel firing a large mortar … as the round was leaving the barrel.. a shockwave surrounded the immediate area dia. about 4 M.. with Army personnel right in the middle.. must do wonders for their grey matter.
@S.Simpson
Yeah, I get that modern Labor tends to be more right wing than their base would like, but then there’s the fact that the overall media environment for them is pretty much “The Floor Is Lava” while it’s mostly “The Soft Cushions” for when the Coalition is in power, because the media have their own objectives and have been able to consolidate their power to the right over the past 50 years.
So essentially that bakes down the choice between a Labor government that has to make compromises, or a perpetual Coalition government that can frankly do whatever it wants, just as long as it doesn’t annoy Murdoch.
‘Mr Rockliff, the nation’s only Liberal premier, has reached out to the Jacqui Lambie Network, which has secured two seats and possibly a third, as well as two independents.
The Greens, who have at least four seats, labelled Labor’s decision to effectively concede as “gifting” the Liberals government.’
northerndailyleader.com.au
Lambie has expressed surprise that Labor didn’t even bother reaching out to her before conceding to the Liberals. Everyone knows Labor hates the Greens, but why would they just hand government to the Liberals, whose policy is to log 40,000 hectares of native forests, without even trying to put together a coalition.
It’s personal before policy and it’s pathetic. Why would anyone ever bother voting for them again?
SEATS IN TASMANIA’S NEW PARLIAMENT
* Liberal 12, Labor 10, Greens four, Jacqui Lambie Network two, independents two, in doubt four.
Resource rich West Irian represents a quarter of Indonesia’s land area.
ASEAN would fall in behind Indonesia. Several of them face similar problems.
India faces the same problems in its North-west Territories with the added problem of active subversion by China.
All the muslim countries would support Indonesia.
It is an abiding principle in Africa that colonial borders are respected. This is practical because huge numbers of African countries would face independence movements if the borders were in play. Africa would fall in behind Indonesia.
China has zero interest in aggravating its already tenuous relations with Indonesia.
Russia has its hands full.
The Latin American countries are generally going to fall in behind Indonesia against foreign intervention.
The US is not going to aggravate Indonesia.
The EU has its hands more than full.
Australia has its hands full with PNG, let alone going it alone to foment or support West Papuan Independence.
West Papuans have about the same practical chance of gaining full Independence that Australia’s First Nations have of gaining full independence. And for much the same general reasons.
‘Rainman says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:35 pm
….
The Greens, who have at least four seats, labelled Labor’s decision to effectively concede as “gifting” the Liberals government.’
….’
——————————
Yet another Greens classic.
Re Gympie @8:08 PM.
That is very … interesting.
Gympie:
…what?