The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5% (down half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of a 1710.
Aside from a dearth of published polling, the non-external factors that have contributed to this site being light on for posts lately have been the effort I’ve been putting in trying to get live results features up for the Tasmanian election (see above post) and tomorrow’s South Australian state by-election for Dunstan, which in the absence of any polling for the highly marginal seat should prove an interesting litmus test for Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government.
“John Oliver takes a look at the president of Turkmenistan, a dangerous autocrat with some notably strange obsessions.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9QYu8LtH2E
Ashasays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:17 pm
MexicanBeemer, are you a practicing doctor? Because the people you are arguing with actually are. You don’t think that they might just know a bit more than you on this topic?
—————————————-
Its not really an argument but more of chat about what is experience and if its possible to have experience by being around something and that argument could be made but some people in hiring and management would say they are not the same thing.
Boerwar @ #848 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:04 pm
Not true, as is fairly easy to discover.
I used to wonder why you persisted when what you post is so easily refuted … except that I think by now everyone here knows quite well well why you do so.
I see there is heated debate here regarding the issue of human effects on climate change. Climate change appears to be a quite serious issue today. As a 5th generation southern African I feel that that habits in the third world like afrika, India and developing nations such as China will ultimately be the deciding factor in how and if climate change is to ruin earth.
With the billions of people in the third world still burning wood, coal etc for every meal I wonder just how much impact western, developed nations could have positively to counter the climate change trajectory. I’ve been to India for business around 4 years ago and I can tell you that poverty, overpopulation and a survival of the fittest mentality is both required and compulsory for the hundreds of millions just to live day to day. They have zero concerns for sustainability and environmental and climate considerations. They don’t even have sewerage, you can use your imagination to work out the rest.
Player One says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:21 pm
Boerwar @ #848 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:04 pm
Projection and scientifically inaccurate.
Not true, as is fairly easy to discover.
I used to wonder why you persisted when what you post is so easily refuted … except that I think by now everyone here knows quite well well why you do so.’
——————
Well, we all know why you want to ramp up tourism consumerism.
Getting rid of all fossil fuel will do nothing to change domestic livestock methane emissions. Cattle do not eat coal. They do not eat gas. They do emit methane.
NRL team Melbourne Storm’s sponsor are ‘Tradie’. Just saying.
MB
Definitely not the same thing but you at least understand what some of the challenges are, but no more than the nurses, OTs and other health people around the kid.
I used to see these kids in a wheelchair on a ventilator (pressure ulcers are a problem) and couldn’t understand how the parents coped. It makes you fight for them but you can’t hope to understand.
I note that Xi and Putin have vetoed the US ceasefire resolution in the UN. And why not?
They are both winners from the ongoing Iran/Israel war in Gaza.
Another military victory for the good guys.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1309376.shtml
The resolution was Veto’d because it said
‘determine the imperative for an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides, allow for the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, and alleviate humanitarian suffering’
It did not call for a ceasefire. It was a delaying tactic to allow more talks while Israel completed it.s genocide
“By making a habit of only talking to people dumber than I am”
And boy, doesn’t it show.
Bryon says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:49 pm
The resolution was Veto’d because it said
‘determine the imperative for an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides,…’
calls for a ceasefire.
As noted above Xi and Putin do not want a ceasefire.
Both are authoritarian dictators who have brought untold suffering on their civilian populations. They do not give a rat’s for the suffering of civilians in Gaza or in Israel. Their ships are getting free passage in the Red Sea. The democracies are having their merchant marine ships attacked and sunk in the same waters. The US is distracted from China’s military attacks on Philippines vessels in Philippines waters. Israel and Ukraine are competing for the same resources from the US.
I note that Boerwar has been provocatively making comments regarding Israel and Gaza for several days now.
I assume that the moratorium has been lifted.
It is of course the case that the US has vetoed multiple resolutions in the Security Council. Is that because the US benefits from Israel’s continuing special military operation in Gaza?
Monique Ryan may believe in climate change, but she is still a Tory!
Scott at 7.04 pm
The Tassie election was not bad for Dr Bonham’s polling aggregate, based on limited polling as it was.
The aggregate had the Lib vote at 36.9%, while it currently sits at 36.8%.
The main error was a 4% underestimate in the Labor vote, 25.3% on the aggregate and really 29.1%.
Redbridge had the Labor vote at 29% but it understated the Libs by 4% and overstated Lambie by 3%.
The Green vote was very close in the aggregate at 13.2%, compared with 13.5% currently.
JLN was unsurprisingly overstated in the aggregate at 9%, whereas really only 6.7%.
Meanwhile Dr Bonham says Libs would have at most got 11 seats (existing amount, without renegades) if the size of the House had not increased. What a dastardly smart move by Rockliff to increase the size of the House, so that he could claim to be a winner even while treading water!
I guess there are or have benevolent dictators – eg, Lee Kuan Yew; but they’re a rare breed indeed. And even Lee had an authoritarian streak from time to time:
https://www.amnesty.org/fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/asa360052006en.pdf
When the Ombudsman is being investigated by the Corruption and Conduct Commission.
That’s Amore.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/wa-s-integrity-watchdog-chris-field-spent-much-of-the-past-two-years-travelling-the-world-but-did-it-help-wa/ar-BB1kqadl?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=e26ae7e7c98b4487930d702d0ef28752&ei=7
Long-serving Liberal member for Grey Rowan Ramsey has announced he will not be contesting the next federal election, highlighting road improvements as one of his proudest achievements in the role.
Mr Ramsey, 67, said the decision has not been an easy one because he still has “unwavering enthusiasm for the job”.
His retirement is expected to trigger a hotly-contested preselection battle to determine his successor in the safe seat, which the Liberals held on a margin of more than 10 per cent at the 2022 federal election.
Dr Doolittle says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 2:55 pm
The Libs don’t have a housing policy, except to push up prices with dubious schemes.
————————————————————————-“Nobody’s ever complained to me about their house price going up.”
John Howard
Lars Von Trier @ #631 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 8:36 am
Bullseye!!!
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:39 pm
I note that Xi and Putin have vetoed the US ceasefire resolution in the UN. And why not?
They are both winners from the ongoing Iran/Israel war in Gaza.
——————————-
Not as bigger winners as US weapons manufacturers cashing in on the next shipment of ammunition to Israel.
‘Shellbell says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 8:41 pm
When the Ombudsman is being investigated by the Corruption and Conduct Commission.
That’s Amore.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/wa-s-integrity-watchdog-chris-field-spent-much-of-the-past-two-years-travelling-the-world-but-did-it-help-wa/ar-BB1kqadl?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=e26ae7e7c98b4487930d702d0ef28752&ei=7‘
——————
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I reckon Zoe Daniel is going to retain Goldstein easily and increase her margin. Of all the Teal IND, I think she is the most sensible and had a high degree of gravitas. I don’t think that of all the Teal’s though. I reckon Ryan will lose some skin but just hold on. Daniel has more ALP and Green voters left to switch and I think a seat like Goldstein is still moving left, whereas Kooyong is pretty close to maxed out.
Anyone care to rank the Teals in order of chances of improving their margin next election? Assume in NSW and WA that the same seat exist (even though they will not).
High Street at 8.57 pm
That exercise cannot be seriously attempted until the redistributions are completed.
Mavis
Didn’t Paul Hogan want to be a benevolent dictator?
Boerwar @ #855 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:33 pm
It’s fossil fuels. Not tourism. Not cattle. Just fossil fuels – necessary and sufficient.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:00 pm
High Street at 8.57 pm
That exercise cannot be seriously attempted until the redistributions are completed.
================================================
Also hard if we don’t know who they are running against. Zoe Daniels does appear pretty safe as she is going against Tim Wilson again. Whom she beat by around 3% last time. I expect her to increase that. As Tim Wilson brings nothing new and has lost any advantage of incumbency too.
S. Simpson @ #871 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 8:49 pm
Simplistic. Though, to be fair you’d have to say the same about Iran and Hamas and Hezbollah.
“It is of course the case that the US has vetoed multiple resolutions in the Security Council. Is that because the US benefits from Israel’s continuing special military operation in Gaza?”
The US resolution was a propaganda stunt that would only have worked in the weakest and most gullible minds on the planet. It is insulting how deeply stupid they think we are, then you see it actually worked on someone.
How many kids died of starvation, lack of basic medicine or water in the last hour and what is our Govt doing to stop genocide as it is obliged to?
Boerwar says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:39 pm
I note that Xi and Putin have vetoed the US ceasefire resolution in the UN. And why not?
They are both winners from the ongoing Iran/Israel war in Gaza.
——————————————————————————-
The US struck down a draft resolution on October 18, that called for humanitarian pauses.
The US vetoed UN resolution on December 8, that called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.
The US vetoed a resolution on February 20, that called for an immediate ceasefire.
So, do you believe the U.S. are also a winner from the ongoing war in Gaza?
From the Guardian:
Attending the launch of a new medical complex on Sunday with O’Hanlon at his side, the South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, declared she was “on the cusp of achieving something quite special”.
The Greens emerged on Sunday as another potential success story, with Katie McCusker polling 22.4% of first-preference votes – an advance of some 9% on the party’s return in the electorate at the 2022 state election.
“If we can replicate the results that we saw in Dunstan last night, we will win the seat of Sturt at the next federal election,” the SA senator Robert Sims said on Sunday.
Can anyone explain the mathematical logic of the Greens Senator to me? – it would seem to me that Labor would be clear favourites to win Sturt at next federal election under anything like a repeat of this result in Dunstan.
There does seem clear pattern emerging – any seat with cooeee of a CBD is quickly moving away from the LNP, whilst they are making small gains in outer urban seats. The redistributed northern Sydney seats could be very interesting nect election whilst Dutton remains as LNP leader
If people have been getting away with breaching the moratorium, it is because my attention has been elsewhere.
Dr Doolittle
I said assume the same seats exist.
Rewi @ #863 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:57 pm
The moratorium hasn’t been lifted, afaik. Also, I, too have noted Boerwar’s skating along past the moratorium, though he’s not been the only one, you must admit. Oh yeah, and China and Russia vetoed America’s US-led Gaza ceasefire and hostage swap resolution in the UN Security Council. To be fair and balanced.
Now, back to the moratorium.
WWP: our Govt doing to stop genocide as it is obliged to?
Me: Is our government obliged to stop genocide? Why? How can they stop?
I can understand UN, as an organisation and UN permanent Security members, obliged to stop genocide because they have a veto on actions of other countries. As far as I know they did not stop any genocide after WW2.
rhwombat @ #798 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 5:04 pm
Bravo, rhwombat! Dr Ryan has done the hard yards that the Knowledge & Financial Class job holders would collapse from if they had to do it for even one week.
Is Boerwar from ZA?
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:11 pm
The US resolution was a propaganda stunt that would only have worked in the weakest and most gullible minds on the planet. It is insulting how deeply stupid they think we are, then you see it actually worked on someone.
——————————————————————————-
There is no evidence that anyone here is so stupid that U.S. propaganda has worked on them.
It is more likely that those who you refer too are actually deliberate propagators of the propaganda, using selective examples and disingenuous logic to try and fool those that they consider to be stupid.
Is tonight Newspoll night? I’m losing track because it’s so long between polls these days. Well, 3 weeks seems like forever. 😀
“Anyone care to rank the Teals in order of chances of improving their margin next election? Assume in NSW and WA that the same seat exist (even though they will not).”
** * * * *
Sure.
Chaney in Curtin: out of her depth, loser; Ryan in Kooyong: would lose so badly, she’d be better off retiring; Scamps, in Mackellar: done nothing, loser; Tink in North Sydney: loser;
Zali Steggall: loser unless Liberal run another flake candidate; Allegra Spender: winner, if she joins the Liberal Party. There’s only one Dave Sharma, and she’s had hers
Zoe Daniel, winner.
Bryonsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:49 pm
The resolution was Veto’d because it said
================================================
I note “Bryon” appears to be a new poster. At least i don’t remember them previously. Possibly they might need “moratorium” explained?. That we can only discuss things that occur in an area south of Lebanon and north plus east of Egypt if it directly relates to Australian Government policy. Otherwise it tends to just end in name calling. Though even when it relates to Australian Government policy it often ends up like that too.
gympie @ #889 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 9:23 pm
Takes one to know one, gympie?
And your qualifications to issue these judgements is? Oh that’s right, you’re a Queenslander and Queensland Conservatives think the sun shines out of their…state.
Ven @ #856 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:35 pm
They make underwear and deodorant. Probably just a play for sales by a multinational company by appealing to the Tradie Class.
Ven
“Me: Is our government obliged to stop genocide? Why? How can they stop?”
It isn’t like it is in article I:
“The Contracting Parties ,
Having considered the declaration made by the General Assembly of the United Nations in its resolution 96 (I) dated 11 December 1946 that genocide is a crime under international law, contrary to the spirit and aims of the United Nations and condemned by the civilized world,
Recognizing that at all periods of history genocide has inflicted great losses on
humanity, and
Being convinced that, in order to liberate mankind from such an odious scourge,
international co-operation is required,
Hereby agree as hereinafter provided :
Article I
The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to punish.
”
No wait is in article one, prevent and punish, not aid and applaud.
How would it be achieved I wonder.
You would think at the very least the measures enacted by Australia to save Ukraine, we could pressure our ally the US to stop funding and arming the genocide.
Perhaps we could stop arming the genocide. Perhaps our foreign minister would be the appropriate one to frame our national response.
No matter what you think of the US or China or ………….
Australia made its position clear in a very detailed way on one of the earlier ceasefire resolutions that hasn’t changed.
So I have not been commenting as I don’t want to add to division not having relatives on either side.
Maybe its a good idea to respect William’s moratorium
”
Rainmansays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:22 pm
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:11 pm
The US resolution was a propaganda stunt that would only have worked in the weakest and most gullible minds on the planet. It is insulting how deeply stupid they think we are, then you see it actually worked on someone.
——————————————————————————-
There is no evidence that anyone here is so stupid that U.S. propaganda has worked on them.
It is more likely that those who you refer too are actually deliberate propagators of the propaganda, using selective examples and disingenuous logic to try and fool those that they consider to be stupid.
”
It appears Millennials and Gen Z in USA don’t actually believe the actions of their government or at best are not aware of them.
Why I am writing that?
As per a CBS poll last week, 54% of US Millennials and Gen Z want to vote for Trump.
gympiesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:23 pm
“Anyone care to rank the Teals in order of chances of improving their margin next election? Assume in NSW and WA that the same seat exist (even though they will not).”
** * * * *
Sure.
Chaney in Curtin: out of her depth, loser; Ryan in Kooyong: would lose so badly, she’d be better off retiring; Scamps, in Mackellar: done nothing, loser; Tink in North Sydney: loser;
Zali Steggall: loser unless Liberal run another flake candidate; Allegra Spender: winner, if she joins the Liberal Party. There’s only one Dave Sharma, and she’s had hers
Zoe Daniel, winner.
================================================
Don’t give up your day job “Gympie”. Being a road test dummy is an important job and is about the only part of the car industry Tony Abbott left Australia with too.
“”Can anyone explain the mathematical logic of the Greens Senator to me? – it would seem to me that Labor would be clear favourites to win Sturt at next federal election under anything like a repeat of this result in Dunstan.”
– – – – – – –
Sure.
Labor can’t win it, short of a landslide result, but The Greens could definitely win it on always disciplined ALP preferences. That would require Labor lending the Greens enough votes to ensure they finished 2nd.
The Greens bargaining chip would be:
Albanese only squeaked home last time and the history of Governments chasing a second term is they lose bark.
See: 1951; 1974; 1977; 1984; 1998; 2010; 2016.
Federal Labor is drifting toward minority government at the next election with its primary-vote support now lower than at the last election, as cost-of-living pressures erode its lead over the Coalition. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote falling a point to 32 per cent.
It is the worst result for the government since the post-referendum backlash last November and suggests that any electoral benefit gained from its tax cut backflip in January has faded as the government begins its May budget planning.
The Coalition’s primary vote lifted a point to 37 per cent, which is almost two points higher than the May 2022 election result but still too low to form government if repeated at an election.
A total of 31 per cent of voters nominated anyone other than the major parties, a trend mirrored in the Tasmanian election on Saturday, with neither the Liberal Party nor Labor winning enough seats for a majority government.
The Greens nationally have lifted a point to 13 per cent while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation also rose a point to 7 per cent. Support for other minor parties and independents, including teals, has fallen two points to 11 per cent. This is considerably lower than the 14.5 per cent that fringe parties and independents secured at the 2022 election. Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition has been reduced two points to 51-49 per cent