The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5% (down half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of a 1710.
Aside from a dearth of published polling, the non-external factors that have contributed to this site being light on for posts lately have been the effort I’ve been putting in trying to get live results features up for the Tasmanian election (see above post) and tomorrow’s South Australian state by-election for Dunstan, which in the absence of any polling for the highly marginal seat should prove an interesting litmus test for Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government.
Hey Dawn Patrollers! Here’s a really good article from Jacqui Maley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-worst-thing-about-trump-s-take-down-of-rudd-dutton-s-cynical-reaction-20240322-p5feik.html
And on the same subject, so has Mark Kenny given us a good read.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8565665/donald-trumps-impact-on-global-politics-swaying-australian-media/?cs=14329
Hospital pass to the LNP?
‘The Queensland way’: rising costs, political power plays and legacy fears already dog the 2032 Brisbane Olympics
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/23/queensland-olympics-2032-stadium-plan
Pueo @ #602 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 6:39 am
Go Orstralia! Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oi! Oi! Oi! 😀
Even in Tasmania state election
Liberal party primary vote 36.6%
close to the federal lib/nats combined primary vote average in the opinion polls ,
Qld state election (Lib/nats strongest state) will be interesting to see if LNP primary vote can get over 40%
Oliver Sutton @ #597 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 4:28 am
Or, Officer Barbrady 🙂
World news & politics roundup:
US has evidence that ISIS is behind terrorist attack near Moscow and warned Russia in advance: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/23/7447791/
Putin vows to punish those behind Russia concert massacre: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-suspects-moscow-attack-detained-after-car-chase-lawmaker-2024-03-23/
Mexico’s president says he won’t fight drug cartels on US orders, calls it a ‘Mexico First’ policy: https://apnews.com/article/mexico-first-nationalistic-policy-drug-cartels-6e7a78ff41c895b4e10930463f24e9fb
Israel summons Turkish ambassador after Erdoğan vows to ‘send Netanyahu to Allah’: https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/israel-summons-turkish-ambassador-after-erdogan-vows-to-send-netanyahu-to-allah-gy0zqs0m
Changing Tory leader could result in even larger Labour landslide, new poll shows: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/swapping-tory-leader-labour-lead-bigger-poll-opinium
Biden campaign tests Trump’s name-calling strategy with ‘Broke Don’: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4550498-biden-campaign-tests-trumps-name-calling-strategy-with-broke-don/
Donald Trump Would Rip Up Documents After Reading Them—White House Aide: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-january-6-capitol-riot-white-house-valet-testimony-destroyed-documents-1882288
The ‘Great Resignation’ continues as yet another GOP rep exits: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/great-resignation-continues-yet-another-gop-rep-exits-rcna144718
Trump says ‘I love Truth Social’ one day after DWAC stock plunges on social media merger vote: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/23/trump-says-i-love-truth-social-after-dwac-stock-plunges-.html
Biden signs $1.2tn spending package as government shutdown is averted: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/23/us-senate-passes-spending-package-avoid-government-shutdown
Sunday shows preview: House GOP infighting on full display as Congress narrowly averts shutdown: https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/4551799-sunday-shows-preview-house-gop-infighting-on-full-display-as-congress-narrowly-averts-shutdown/
Trump’s Truth Social merger throws curveball into presidential race: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4550704-trumps-truth-social-merger-throws-curveball-into-presidential-race/
Fiji’s prime minister Sitiveni Rabuka has called on China to retreat from the South Pacific and warned that Beijing’s “unwarranted influence” risks the region’s stability. Rabuka’s comments – his most forthright on China since his election in December 2022 – came as Australian researchers unearthed an extraordinary Chinese security agency video, casting new light on a controversial police operation in Fiji that has become a case study of Beijing’s desire to operate beyond its borders: https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/raided-hooded-and-flown-to-china-secret-fiji-video-reveals-beijing-s-rendition-tactics-20240321-p5fe6p.html
BK @ #601 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 6:33 am
Too right, BK!
To be clear, Trump was threatening to cancel the sovereign choice of the Australian government (on behalf of the Australian people); the representative of a country that is generally considered to be America’s greatest ally, along with Britain. It was another example of Trump smashing convention and being rewarded with attention – his favourite form of narcissistic supply.
Thanks, Holdenhillbilly!
Does this mean another Russia-Afghanistan war? 😉
Putin vows to punish those behind Russia concert massacre:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-suspects-moscow-attack-detained-after-car-chase-lawmaker-2024-03-23/
Also, this statement by Putin:
In a televised address, Putin said 11 people had been detained, including the four gunmen. “They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the state border,” he said.
The FSB security service said the gunmen had contacts in Ukraine and were captured near the border.
Doesn’t jive with this actual factual evidence:
Khinshtein said a pistol, a magazine for an assault rifle, and passports from Tajikistan were found in the car. Tajikistan is a mainly Muslim Central Asian state that used to be part of the Soviet Union.
TV editor Simonyan published a video showing one of the suspects, a young, bearded man, being interrogated aggressively by a roadside, replying in heavily accented Russian to a series of barked questions. He said he had flown from Turkey on March 4 and had received instructions from unknown people via Telegram to carry out the attack in exchange for money.
Also, this is interesting, no Tajikistan:
The Kremlin said Putin had held conversations with the leaders of Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in which all sides affirmed their willingness to work together to fight terrorism.
Pueosays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 6:05 am
Chumbawamba wrote Tubthumping as a working-class anthem. We won’t have it stolen by the right — Boff Whalley
Why do populists so often use the work of artists who despise them? Because they don’t have any good songs of their own
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/22/my-band-hit-tubthumping-is-the-latest-working-class-anthem-to-be-co-opted-by-populist-politicians
————–
They go for working class songs because they see themselves as working class and that might help in marginal seats but they don’t get working class people.
Scott for the ALP 30% primary is the new 40.
Will it ever get over 30 again in Tassie ? That’s like 3 state elections it’s been under isn’t it ?
Tell me how are you supposed to empty ramped ambulances without a hospital bed to put people in ? Should they just be dumped on the footpath?
————————————
No idea torchB. No quick fixes there. But Malinauskas did campaign on it so it will bite come next state election campaign where the media will focus hard on it.
#weatheronPB
A grey, even sky,
still drips from the night before.
Quiet, wet splashes.
Team Katich @ #612 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:34 am
Didn’t the Liberals and the media focus hard on it in the by-election?
Ramping is a symptom, not a cause.
The Age 23/03
More than 300 Liberal Party members, including former Victorian Liberal premier Ted Baillieu and Shadow Minister for Home Affairs James Paterson, gathered at the Hawthorn Arts Centre on Saturday to choose a replacement for Frydenberg, who lost the seat to independent Monique Ryan in 2022.
_____________________
That’s what a real preselection looks like Labor.
No National Executive. No Faceless men. No Factional backroom deals.
Fifth time lucky?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/constance-secures-gilmore-candidacy-for-federal-election-20240323-p5fep7.html
Taylormade says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:51 am
The Age 23/03
More than 300 Liberal Party members, including former Victorian Liberal premier Ted Baillieu and Shadow Minister for Home Affairs James Paterson, gathered at the Hawthorn Arts Centre on Saturday to choose a replacement for Frydenberg, who lost the seat to independent Monique Ryan in 2022.
_____________________
That’s what a real preselection looks like Labor.
No National Executive. No Faceless men. No Factional backroom deals.
—————————————————-
Looks like faceless men , factional backroom deals to me
Unbelievably the Liberals have pre-selected…..a woman(!!!) as their candidate in Kooyong.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-royalty-picked-to-replace-frydenberg-as-liberal-candidate-in-kooyong-20240322-p5fekm.html
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:23 am
Scott for the ALP 30% primary is the new 40.
Will it ever get over 30 again in Tassie ? That’s like 3 state elections it’s been under isn’t it ?
———————-
Rather be Labor position than the liberal/national party if the primary votes aren’t going to reach 40%
It is very hard for the lib/nats to get majority in the mid 30’s%
Taylormade @ #616 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:51 am
Yeah a coronation for Liberal royalty. 😐
Dutton’s call to install nuclear reactor in Dunstan went well
Gee, Dutton’s nuclear plans are going well. Not even his state colleagues are supportive:
In Qld: a firm and hard NO.
In NSW: NO.
In Victoria: Hell NO.
In SA: Perhaps.
And apart from SA the other states have laws banning nuclear energy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/24/peter-dutton-liberal-leaders-nuclear-power-ban
Dick Hamer was a reformist Premier, and did change the course of Victoria for the better in several ways
As usual. He is spot on.
——————
Garry Kasparov
There will be a dozen new lies pushed out every day, the standard KGB firehose of bullshit. Today it’s quivering Tajiks who brought down a building the size of a small town & ran to a fortified border while heavy local security & nearby special forces base oblivious. Ok.
Confessions @ #623 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 8:24 am
There’s only one place a nuclear reactor will end up in Australia. On Dutton’s head:
‘Catprog says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 1:09 am
@Boerwar
Haven’t certain posters been calling for the end of all animal industries to solve climate change?
Shouldn’t those posters support the Greens call to stop feed lots?’
—————————
One thing for sure is that the Greens are ideological when it comes to their moralistic posturing. The only practicable way to get anti-methane supplements into cattle is in intensive farming… like feedlots. The main message is the Greens have policies that will destroy large swathes of the economy in rural and regional Australia which will go into massive unemployment, despair and desperate recession as a result. But it is all good.
L’Arse Von Tryhard @ #611 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 7:23 am
L’Arse mistakes the egg all over its face for sour cream.
Dunstan – swing TO government 3.3% (cf normal by-election swing?)
Tasmania – swing AGAINST Libs 12%
Surely some people around Putin feel it’s time for him to exit stage left now….come on……….
Taylormade: “That’s what a real preselection looks like Labor.
No National Executive. No Faceless men. No Factional backroom deals.”
A few token women. Lots of religious extremists …
Yabba – your lies and abuse, its not an attractive combination.
Please know you’ll always have me to call it out when you lapse.
Taylormade: ‘No Factional backroom deals.’
What’s the current tally of defamation cases against Pesutto? From his factional rivals?
Q: In SA: Perhaps.
SA is 100 percent renewable now for over 200 days a year, and was 102 percent rooftop solar recently.
The last thing we need is more power generation. Just a bit of storage.
C@t:
LOL!
Labor is poised to snare the seat of Dunstan from the Liberals – the first time a SA government has taken a seat from an opposition at a by-election in 116 years – after both major parties lost ground to the Greens.
At 9.30pm on Saturday night, Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon had polled 52.9 per cent of two-party preferred votes over Liberal Anna Finizio’s 47.1 per cent, a swing of 3.4 per cent to Labor.
Greens candidate Katie McCusker polled 22.4 per cent of first preference votes – a rise of about nine per cent from the party’s Dunstan result at the 2022 state election.
Classic West Australian tabloid headline today: ‘Sam Kerr weighs in on Kate Middleton’s cancer diagnosis’.
What’s next? How else to drag out this nonsense?
On the other thread
Avoided last night’s elections due to watching the AFL ladder leaders at the SCG last night.
This has to be disasterous for Peter Dutton:
Minus 11.1% for Tasmanian Liberal primary
Losing Dunstan in SA
Surely it is time for this Spud electorate turn off to do the right thing for the Party and step aside.
Resolving ramping is well beyond the capability of a state government.
The collapse of general practice has caused a diversion of non urgent patients to the EDs and reduced capacity for managing ambulance patients.
Ideas to resolve the GP crisis have not got traction and are unlikely to while less than 20% of new graduates head towards general practice.
In the SA by-election Labor had a -2.5% swing, and the Liberal -5.0, whereas the Greens had a +8.4% swing, to be on 22.4% of the vote, and Labor claims it as a great victory. Well..
Anyway, it is highly unlikely that the 8.4% swing to the Greens came directly from the Liberals. Most likely most of the swing to the Greens came from Labor voters, and this was compensated to Labor from the even bigger loss of Liberal voters. Labor and the Liberal are interchangeable these days, and it’s not impossible that they will go into a coalition in the future if the votes of both parties continue to erode.
Oakeshott Country @ #638 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 8:20 am
We are seeing a transfer of General Practice from the private to the public sector.
Morning all. I woke up with a cold this morning but still feeling very happy after yesterday at a Dunstan booth. Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon appeared at our booth (Kensington Park RSL) for much of the afternoon. I found her very approachable and personable and a clear communicator. She will go well if elected, which I expect will be the case.
SA Liberal leader David Speers was also there. He was polite and open to discussion but he was nervous about “how we (they) would go”. Several people talked about the Alex Antic saga during the afternoon. Antic is not popular.
sprocket_: “Minus 11.1% for Tasmanian Liberal primary”
Minus 11.9% currently, on ABC page. Near enough to a quarter of their primary vote.
Time to invoke the Peta Principle: “We must move further to the right!”
“Tell me how are you supposed to empty ramped ambulances without a hospital bed to put people in ? Should they just be dumped on the footpath?”
Think of the public hospitals as a bucket which has water flowing in at the top to ED and water flowing out the bottom. If the inflow is more than the outflow, no matter how big your bucket is, it will fill up and overflow. A bigger bucket is very expensive in terms of dollars and Human Resources.
You have to reduce the inflow by improving prevention, reanimate the GP sector which has almost been killed off and divert to out of hospital care. You also need to increase outflow by fixing aged care and NDIS and reducing length of stay.
As OC says, most of those are Federal issues so a state government that stakes its reputation on fixing ramping is looking at a world of pain.
And yes , ramping is a symptom of a very sick system.
OC
I think it’s only 13% going in to GP training now. It was 50% when I started 40 years ago. I feel so old!!
The ED docs say it’s more that patients who turn up are sicker and more complex coz they couldn’t get in to see their GP for weeks.
Holdenhillbilly thanks for the morning roundup. On this story about the Moscow attack, there is an obvious risk, but not the one Cat mentioned wlow:
Cat: “Does this mean another Russia-Afghanistan war?
“Putin vows to punish those behind Russia concert massacre:”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-suspects-moscow-attack-detained-after-car-chase-lawmaker-2024-03-23/
The real risk is in predominantly Muslim oblasts of Russia that are poor and being forced to supply young men as canon-foder for the war in Ukraine. Places like Dagestan and the Caucasian Russian states are ruled harshly by Russia. They are also economically exploited. And of course, places like Chechnya are where much of Russia’s oil revenue flows from.
The more “christian” Putin’s Russia becomes, the more the desire to break away from Russia will increase. Russia only holds these areas by force. The more the Russian army is occupied in Ukraine, the weaker than hold becomes.
David Speers is the host of ABC Insiders, though he may well be David Speers the SA Liberal Opposition leader
…the Peta Principle: “We must move further to the right!”
Good one!
What happens if the Liberals keep moving ever further to the Right? Do they fall over the edge? Or do they pop up on the other side?
Speers was at his rudest this morning, fixating on a number of failed gotchas.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 8:30 am
The only practicable way to get anti-methane supplements into cattle is in intensive farming… like feedlots.
——————————————————————————-
So, apart from your completely obsessive and unrealistic campaign to save the world by banning tourism, now you want to save the world by further instituting the incredibly cruel practice of intensive farming for cattle.
People of good conscience are pushing for free range farming of animals, while you’re pushing for factory farming.
Steve777: “What happens if the Liberals keep moving ever further to the Right? Do they fall over the edge? Or do they pop up on the other side?”
Well, the Horseshit Theory does have some adherents here.