Roy Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor (open thread)

Amid a drought of federal opinion polling, a sedate result from the often volatile Roy Morgan series.

The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5% (down half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of a 1710.

Aside from a dearth of published polling, the non-external factors that have contributed to this site being light on for posts lately have been the effort I’ve been putting in trying to get live results features up for the Tasmanian election (see above post) and tomorrow’s South Australian state by-election for Dunstan, which in the absence of any polling for the highly marginal seat should prove an interesting litmus test for Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

912 comments on “Roy Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Religious schools should lose their unfettered right to dismiss teachers and expel students over questions of sexuality or gender identity, the nation’s law reform commission has found, in an explosive report that calls for action to safeguard human rights. David Crowe and Natassia Chrysanthos say that these conclusions pile pressure on the federal government to scrap a controversial exemption for religious schools in discrimination law. Religion is poison n’est-ce pas.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fury-as-albanese-told-to-scrap-religious-schools-rule-20240321-p5fe4l.html
    Providing some context to the above, Natassia Chrysanthos tells us the story of Steph Lentz who worked happily as an English teacher at Sydney’s Covenant Christian School for more than three years. But when she told the school she was a lesbian, Lentz was fired. It was all perfectly legal, under a special exemption that exists for religious schools.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teacher-steph-lentz-was-fired-for-her-sexuality-will-those-laws-finally-change-20240320-p5fdtp.html
    David Crowe provides us with a very good explanation of how we got where we are with the religious freedom acts. He says that Albanese has manages to get Dutton into a tirade, the sheer ferocity of which confirmed the wisdom of waiting for bipartisan support before throwing the country into a debilitating and divisive argument.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-albanese-refuses-to-take-this-leap-of-faith-without-dutton-20240320-p5fdyp.html
    Alan Finkel explains why there is no nuclear option for Australia to reach net zero. He declares that any call to go directly from coal to nuclear is effectively a call to delay decarbonisation of our electricity system by 20 years.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/22/heres-why-there-is-no-nuclear-option-for-australia-to-reach-net-zero
    Angus Thompson reports that the Australian Federal Police has referred the leak of sensitive legal material that surfaced in a television interview with former Liberal staffer Bruce Lehrmann to the National Anti-Corruption Commission to determine whether its own officers were involved.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/afp-referred-lehrmann-interview-leak-to-corruption-watchdog-20240319-p5fdn3.html
    “Big tobacco is back, aided and abetted by the Nationals. We can’t let them win on vapes”, writes Monique Ryan in this op-ed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/21/big-tobacco-is-back-aided-and-abetted-by-the-nationals-we-cant-let-them-win-on-vapes
    The government is celebrating robust jobs figures and a fall in unemployment. But Labor and the Reserve Bank will be quietly worried that this is only going to delay any cut in interest rates this year, warns Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-good-news-for-jobs-is-bad-news-for-rates-20240321-p5fe7a
    Alex Antic’s ascendancy is more than just a headache that the Liberal Party doesn’t want or need. While his rolling of Anne Ruston, the Liberal Party’s most senior woman, for the No.1 spot on the South Australian Senate ticket hasn’t relieved the perception of the party’s ‘women problem’, it is also an example of the “takeover of the Liberal Party by Christian right forces”. Writes Parker McKenzie.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2024/03/21/antic-liberal-party-headache
    A senator leading investigations into PwC’s tax leaks scandal has accused the consulting giant’s global chairman, Bob Moritz, of trying to minimise the involvement of international partners after he rejected a formal request for the internal legal report on the matter. The AFR reports that Mr Moritz wrote to the Senate committee into consulting, informing it that he was respectfully declining its request to provide the report, on the grounds it was legally privileged and confidential to PwC International.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/pwc-global-boss-rejects-senate-request-for-tax-leak-report-20240321-p5fe82
    Drug users can’t shirk responsibility. If a social media influencer posts pics of themself using cocaine, they are participating in a supply chain dripping in blood, writes NSW Crime Commissioner, Michael Barnes. He outlines the pervasive influence the drug trade has upon our society. An excellent contribution!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/when-cocaine-is-washing-up-on-your-beaches-supply-isn-t-the-only-problem-20240222-p5f6zs.html
    “Australian PMs did OK under Trump Mark 1. Could Albanese manage Trump Mark 2?”, wonders Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-australian-pms-did-ok-under-trump-mark-1-could-albanese-manage-trump-mark-2-226316
    Before any of the six government-sponsored inquiries into supermarkets have been finished, and with some barely started, analysts have begun to assess the profit damage likely to be sustained by the two majors Woolworths and Coles, writes Elizabeth Knight. She says the sharemarket has already made its decision that neither of the two retail giants can escape unscathed and have marked down the shares of the key target, Woolworths, by 15 per cent since the federal government began its guerilla war in December.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/supermarket-inquiries-send-woolworths-coles-into-damage-control-20240321-p5fe8i.html
    A loophole in Australia’s freedom of information laws allowing governments to block the release of documents after a minister has moved on has now been closed after a “truly transformative” federal court ruling. The former South Australian senator, Rex Patrick, has been fighting to appeal a decision that denied him access to advice held by the former attorney general, Christian Porter, on the administration of sports grants in 2020. Nice work, Rex!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/21/australia-foi-laws-loophole-documents-deny-access
    Does a change to a new Minister kill an ongoing FOI to the old Minister? Can a replaced Minister’s dirt be swept under the carpet? The Information Commissioner and Attorney General Mark Dreyfus said ‘yes’. Rex Patrick said no, and today the Federal Court said ‘no’ too.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/rex-patrick-wins-court-battle-over-foi-secrecy/
    Less than 5 per cent of homes built in Australia are prefabricated. The federal government wants that to change, reports Rachel Clun. In today’s building ministers’ meeting, state and federal ministers will direct the Australian Building Codes Board to start working on streamlining regulations to encourage a boom in pre-fab housing. It all makes sense.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-off-the-shelf-solution-to-the-housing-crisis-needs-to-rip-off-red-tape-20240321-p5fe3w.html
    The state government has left the door open to a major housing affordability overhaul that would give home buyers the option of paying an ongoing land tax to avoid the upfront pain inflicted by stamp duty. In his strongest comments yet on the need for tax reforms to tackle housing affordability, Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas conceded yesterday that stamp duty was distorting the state economy and acting as a barrier for first home buyers.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-open-to-stamp-duty-overhaul-to-ease-burden-on-first-homebuyers-20240321-p5fe8x.html
    Liberal Party press releases and its website are showing up on the Google News tab as a source of information alongside queries about prominent current affairs searches, calling into question the technology giant’s verification of news material, according to one of Australia’s senior-most media and data experts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/liberal-party-press-releases-make-a-splash-on-google-news-20240321-p5fe4w.html
    The climate change and energy minister should be cut some slack, writes Phil Coorey who says Bowen is in the minority attempting hard and unpopular reform, such as the new clean fuel policy.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/cleaner-cars-a-politically-charged-driving-test-for-chris-bowen-20240321-p5fe42
    The relationship between the offices of Police Minister Yasmin Catley and Police Commissioner Karen Webb has collapsed over the controversial appointment of a veteran news figure as the force’s most senior media adviser, leading to a police staffer being kept away from parliament this week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minister-police-at-loggerheads-over-new-media-chief-20240320-p5fdu6.html
    The rate of youth crime in Victoria reached its highest level in a decade last year, prompting new warnings from police about the number of children committing violent offences as the government prepares to raise the age of criminal responsibility. Lachlan Abbott writes that these youngsters are seeking notoriety through social media posts.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/youth-crime-emerging-at-levels-not-seen-in-decades-20240315-p5fcsz.html
    Taxpayers will give the UK government almost $5 billion to subsidise an expansion of British production lines for Australia’s first nuclear-powered submarines, as well as a downpayment on design work. And Andrew Tillett reports that British defence giant BAE Systems – the same company overseeing the troubled future frigates program – has been appointed as the local builder for the joint AUKUS-class submarine that will be operated by the Australian and British navies.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-to-spend-5b-on-uk-subs-in-aukus-pact-20240321-p5fe4m
    Adelaide shipbuilder ASC will be the joint constructor and sole maintainer of the nation’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet, as part of a move hailed as “yet another massive day” for the state by Premier Peter Malinauskas. ASC and Osborne Naval Shipyard neighbour BAE Systems Australia will be named on Friday as the joint builders of Australia’s AUKUS submarines. ASC, the builder and maintainer of the nation’s six Collins class submarines, also will handed the lucrative sustainment program for nuclear-powered submarines, starting with Virginia class boats to be obtained from the United States and followed by an Adelaide-built fleet.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/premier-peter-malinauskas-hails-aukus-nuclearpowered-submarine-builder/news-story/d29f6135b337404ffa8b6232f15024e8
    Gerry Harvey has been gifted yet another megaphone, though not quite as large as the furniture, white goods and electrical retail behemoth Harvey Norman, which he chairs. Michelle Pini says that, frequently called upon by our Fourth Estate to share his “insights” into business, poor people and how we should all be living our lives, Harvey has, on this occasion, broadcast his opinion on one of his company’s biggest rivals, online marketplace Temu.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/why-harvey-norman-should-just-go,18441
    Yesterday the US government filed a sprawling antitrust case against Apple, alleging that the tech giant has illegally prevented competition by restricting access to its software and hardware. The case is a direct challenge to the company’s core products and practices, including its iMessage service and how devices such as the iPhone and Apple Watch connect with one another. Bring it on!
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/21/us-antitrust-lawsuit-apple
    Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates to 50% yesterday, citing a deteriorating inflation outlook and pledging to tighten further if it looks like inflation is significantly and persistently worsening. The hawkish move came 10 days before local elections and was seen by analysts as a signal that the central bank was independent from any political constraints and determined to tackle price rises.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/21/turkish-central-bank-stuns-market-by-hiking-interest-rates-to-50
    The accusations against the United Nations agency helping Palestinian refugees in Gaza are murky, but the consequences have been painfully clear, writes Waleed Aly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/the-cold-calculation-behind-our-aid-cuts-to-gaza-20240321-p5fe59.html
    Bloomberg’s Timothy L O’Brien explains why Trump’s money problems make him so dangerous. He says the going is likely to get rough for Trump as his many issues play out, and he’s likely to become more financially desperate with each passing day. That’s going to make him easy prey for interested lenders — and an easy mark for overseas interests eager to influence US policy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-trump-s-money-problems-make-him-a-threat-20240319-p5fdg9.html
    Meanwhile, Trump’s election campaign is calling for donations from 1 million of his backers, warning he could lose his New York properties, after the former US president failed to secure a bond to cover a $US454 million ($686 million) judgment in a civil fraud case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-campaign-fights-for-one-million-donations-after-bond-flop-20240321-p5fe8k.html
    After much fanfare, the US House impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden is all but winding down, lacking hard evidence of wrongdoing and political appetite from within the Republican ranks to go forward with an actual impeachment. What a pathetic effort!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-impeachment-probe-crashing-as-republicans-lack-support-20240321-p5fe5k.html
    “Arsehole of the Week” nomination goes to this jeweller who is in court, alleged to have faked a robbery of his own store to generate a fallacious $2.8m insurance claim. And the missing jewellery s still missing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/inside-the-alleged-3-million-fake-robbery-of-high-end-sydney-jewellery-store-20240320-p5fe01.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding


    Glen Le Lievre

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    Simon Letch

    Cathy Wilcox

    Jim Pavlidis

    John Shakespeare

    Fiona Katauskas

    Leak

    From the US
























  2. Thanks BK. You’re up early!

    He declares that any call to go directly from coal to nuclear is effectively a call to delay decarbonisation of our electricity system by 20 years.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/22/heres-why-there-is-no-nuclear-option-for-australia-to-reach-net-zero

    He is spot on. The nuclear proposal is just a fig leaf to cover the fact the coalition are hopelessly divided on a) the reality of AGW and b) the most efficient way to decarbonise our economy, ie renewables.

  3. From William: The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5%.
    Labor popularity stuck in low 30%. Likely to drop to 29% at some stage, as it was during the Gillard government, when her friend Bill Shorten abandoned her in July 2013, and supported a return to Kevin Rudd.
    It was thought if Gillard was kept as leader, Labor may have retained only 40 electorates.

    But the damage, removing Rudd, had been done in the 2010 election. Rudd brought Labor’s popularity back to 33.38%, more than Albanese won in the May 2022 election, of 32.58%. When Rudd had won 83 electorates in 2007, this time, with the mess Labor was in, Labor only won 55 electorates in 2013, the Coalition had 80.

    How much further will Labor’s popularity fall? Especially as an easy $4.6billion is going to be given to help the very much in the future UK nuclear submarine build. Announcement today.

    We are helping the UK and US build their submarines. No obvious benefit for Australia in at least 10 years, if ever.

    Plus the big Australia immigration numbers. 2,000 migrants arriving per day. Not enough housing, rentals, staff and resources in schools, staff in hospitals, manufacturing, doctors bulk billing, jobs for young Australians,…… I am sure more can be added.

    Another Labor mess, can’t manage money.

  4. Thanks BK. You’re up early!
    _______
    Yes, Fess. A couple of days ago I had some biopsies done and one of them was quite painful overnight. Consequently there was a 0350 rising.

  5. From the previous thread this:

    Holdenhillbilly (AnonBlock)
    Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 6:04 am
    Comment #1509
    Party time at the Port: Adelaide shipbuilder ASC will be the joint constructor and sole maintainer of the nation’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet, as part of a move hailed as “yet another massive day” for the state by Premier Peter Malinauskas.
    ASC and Osborne Naval Shipyard neighbour BAE Systems Australia will be named on Friday as the joint builders of Australia’s AUKUS submarines.
    ASC, the builder and maintainer of the nation’s six Collins class submarines, also will handed the lucrative sustainment program for nuclear-powered submarines, starting with Virginia class boats to be obtained from the United States and followed by an Adelaide-built fleet.
    Defence Minister Richard Marles says this will involve “significant workforce growth and the development of skills, knowledge and experience”.
    As revealed on Advertiser.com.au, the announcements will be made in Adelaide during Friday’s high-level talks between Mr Marles, Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong and their United Kingdom counterparts Grant Shapps and David Cameron.
    In joint statements with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, Mr Marles outlines plans for a Skills and Training Academy at Osborne, including overseas placements in the US for vocational teachers to learn nuclear-powered submarine skills in a “train-the-trainer” scheme.

    Goes with this:

    https://youtu.be/kYEfmAJBUMI?si=kNY_nzoP4gUbLN6f

    To the extent that anyone who criticises the money going to the US and UK doesn’t know what they’re talking about. It’s money well-spent by our federal government to safeguard our future. And as the Mastercard ad goes, that’s priceless.

  6. Sounds familiar?

    The Social Security Administration’s internal watchdog office failed to properly notify some poor and disabled Americans before levying huge fines on them, an investigation by an independent watchdog agency found.

    The two-year probe into a little-known anti-fraud program discovered particularly stark due process violations starting in 2018, with investigators finding no evidence that the government ever sent written notice to some of those hit with massive penalties, which at times reached more than $100,000. Even when the inspector general’s office, which runs the program, did send notification letters in previous years, investigators found it often failed to properly serve people with notice of the proposed fines.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/21/social-security-ennis-cigie-report-fines/

  7. They. Will. Stop. At. Nothing. In order to get their disinformation out:

    Liberal Party press releases and its website are showing up on the Google News tab as a source of information alongside queries about prominent current affairs searches, calling into question the technology giant’s verification of news material, according to one of Australia’s senior-most media and data experts.

    Links to different media releases from the Liberal Party website show first in response to search with keywords “Labor position nuclear”, “Labor and nuclear” or “Labor renewables” in Google News at a time when federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is pushing for Australia to adopt nuclear power.

    Associate professor of news and political communication at Monash University Emma Briant said it “looks like a clear strategy by the Liberals to get political content listed as news to increase its credibility and visibility in the search engine”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/liberal-party-press-releases-make-a-splash-on-google-news-20240321-p5fe4w.html

    It includes garbage like this:

    Political propaganda as ‘news’. Your federal Opposition Liberal and National parties.

  8. NSW parliament had a marathon session overnight debating the bill to ban conversion practices on LGBTQ people. The bill has now passed the upper house.

  9. Meanwhile in the UK the Conservatives brilliant economic skills come to the fore…

    About 300,000 more children were plunged into absolute poverty in a single year at the height of the cost of living crisis amid soaring levels of hunger and food bank use, official figures show, prompting calls for an overhaul of the UK’s creaking welfare safety net.

    Campaigners accused the government of failing to protect the UK’s poorest families as the latest poverty statistics showed 600,000 more people fell into absolute poverty – ministers’ preferred poverty measure – in 2022-23 when inflation was at its 10% peak.

    Overall, during the year 12 million people were in absolute poverty – equivalent to 18% of the population, including 3.6 million children – levels of hardship last seen in 2011-12 after the financial crash.

  10. Craig Thomson ex federal labor found to of ripped off covid funds does this guy ever learn?

    Ambulance ramping and the failure of SA labor to fix it despite ambulance chasing before the state election could cost them dearly in the weekend election in Dunstan.Not sure pretty boy is traveling as well as his smarmy exterior projects.

    A boat yesterday believed to be on its way to land illegally in Australia sank 150 on board a few survivors found so far.
    The sugar is back on the table after fed labor government recent failure to protect our borders the smugglers know they can now get boats through.
    Labors primary vote is terrible.
    Boats getting through will get it to 20s.

    It’s sad people dying at sea are not important to federal labor.Should have learnt from their dreadful history.Soft on borders.

  11. Irene: ‘Labor popularity stuck in low 30%. Likely to drop to 29% at some stage …’

    =====

    ‘Likely’ … based on what?

  12. Pied Piper:

    “A boat yesterday believed to be on its way to illegally to Australia sank 150 on board a few survivors found so far.
    The sugar is back on the table after fed labor government recent failure to protect our borders …”

    What a sicko you are.

  13. Ven, thanks for that cbs article on a poll on happiness you posted last night. That is very disturbing. I am a little cautious drilling down too far in a poll of 1000. But it’s a large subset and a big change in voting intention (and in happiness levels). And it seems to be backed by other polls.

  14. Sorry to hear BK. Pain at 4am is not what you want. Especially on these cool nights when you just wanna be snugged in.

    Hopefully a day nap is on the cards and you get well soon.

  15. Pied Piper. @ #15 Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 7:22 am

    Craig Thomson ex labor found to of ripped off covid funds does this guy ever learn?

    Ambulance ramping and the failure of SA labor to fix it despite ambulance chasing could cost them dearly in the weekend election in Dunstan.Not sure pretty boy is traveling as well as his smarmy exterior projects.

    A boat yesterday believed to be on its way to illegally to Australia sank 150 on board a few survivors found so far.
    The sugar is back on the table after fed labor government recent failure to protect our borders the smugglers know they can now get boats through.
    Labors primary vote is terrible.

    Damian Mantach.

    Damien Mantach, the former Liberal Party state director for Victoria, has been sentenced to five years in prison after pleading guilty to defrauding the party of $1.55 million, partially in an attempt to save his disintegrating marriage.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/former-liberal-state-boss-damien-mantach-jailed-for-five-years-for-155m-fraud-20160719-gq8l4p.html

  16. Ambulance ramping is a problem for SA ALP but less so in Dunstan. The Liberals are certainly trying to make it the issue for Saturday but I suspect more so to hone its strategy for the next state election where it will have greater impact for the reasons you pointed out.

  17. The lib/nats and their propaganda media are not politically intelligent to work out

    What propaganda worked 14 years ago is not working now

    Immigrants / boat people propaganda is outdated , majority have woken up to it

  18. Current propaganda by lib/nats propaganda that interest rates will rise , is also getting outdated already

    Seems foreign political influence in trying to replace Kevin Rudd is the only thing they have got

  19. In Dublin, a Steve Bradbury event as all likely contenders withdraw and the little known Minister for Science, Simon Harris is the only declared candidate for Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach. Monday is the deadline for candidates but the money is on Harris

    https://www.rte.ie/

  20. ‘[David] Cameron and UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, arrived in Canberra on Thursday for talks with their Australian counterparts, Penny Wong and Richard Marles.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/21/australia-moves-to-prop-up-aukus-with-46bn-pledge-to-help-clear-rolls-royce-nuclear-reactor-bottlenecks-in-uk

    Did Grant Shapps travel on his own passport, or on one of his multiple aliases: Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath, Sebastian Fox?

    (If ScoMo was still around, Shapps’s four identities could meet with his five secret ministers.)

    https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/grant-shapps-home-secretary-suella-braverman-spreadsheet-michael-green-b1034098.html

  21. Irene 6.44am
    ‘Another Labor mess, can’t manage money.”

    One thing you’ve got right Irene is that about high thirty percent of voters believe that mindless claptrap whereas the reality is somewhat different.

    Thankfully these modern day troglodytes, housed in spoilt opulence, greedy to an extreme, benefitting greatly from Labor’s superannuation efforts and mindlessly numb, continue to enjoy the benefits allowed them.

    They can rant and rave all they like in a relatively free country.

    You certainly have a political representative equal to your hobbled insights and expectations.

    I suspect that mostly you’re just making a fool of yourself on PB.

  22. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. No wonder there has been a drip feed of AUKUS details. Imagine the public reaction if from the start it was clear Australia would be paying $9.2 billion to USA (4.7) and UK (4.5) industry expansion before any local construction jobs started. Australia is not being “given” anything. That is enough money to buy the air force a fourth squadron of F35s, or locally build another 3 Hobart air warfare destroyers, which the navy badly needs.

    The timing is also very strained. According to the ABC article ASC will not start to build SSNs until after the Virginias arrive in the “early 2030s”. So it will be mid 2030s, a ten year gap in employment as I have suggested before. In reality all the knowledge and experience of the Collins class construction will be gone by then. The job beneficiaries of this announcement are in primary school now. And if a Collins is lost with crew before then, no responsible minister will admit the blame.

    I hope Marles, Albanese and Malinauskus are not expecting too much praise for this decision. They will get some. But there will be real anger from others.

    There was no credible delivery plan for AUKUS when Morrison announced it. Now we have adopted a plan, but it is hard to imagine a slower, more costly, complex or riskier plan. And once again the whole program is justified by hand waving at Chine with no real explanation of what our obligation is. I hope AUKUS doesn’t fail, but this is a foolish decision IMO.

  23. Hmm massive awareness around Australia of that boat getting through says otherwise was noted in summary of polling recently on here.

    Dunstan is interesting given Qld state results last week are the public blaming state labor govs for the housing shortage given their role in public housing even though feds high levels immigration real reason.

    One seat in Qld elections last week has almost 50 percent of properties rented the other over 35.Vacancies rate for rentals in both seats also terrible.

    Norwood which is in Dunstan has a rental property rate of 39 percent and a rental vacancy rate terrible at 1.5 percent and has 60 rentals available for a population of 6000.Whats that 10 per 1000 residents.
    As per -real estate investar -website.

    We shall see.

  24. Kevin Bonham’s best educated estimate at this stage: 15 Lib 10 ALP 4 Green 3 JLN 3 IND.

    The New Dutch Disease?

    The elections were on November 22 and they have yet to be able to form a government. The last government took 299 days to form. Governments by gaggle are inherently unstable and are prone to either paralysis or dissolution before the term ends.

  25. Oliver Sutton (from last night)

    On happier times, when my family moved to Aspley in 1969 yes it was an outer suburb. Like most kids then I walked to school from grade one. It was over a kilometre and I walked past what were then still paddocks with cows grazing in them.

  26. UnAustralian: Barnaby Joyce Fuming That Channel 7 Only Gave Him Cash For His Exclusive Tell-All Interview And Skimped Out On The Rub N’ Tug That They Shouted Bruce Lehrmann.

  27. Socrates @ #31 Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 8:15 am

    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. No wonder there has been a drip feed of AUKUS details. Imagine the public reaction if from the start it was clear Australia would be paying $9.2 billion to USA (4.7) and UK (4.5) industry expansion before any local construction jobs started. Australia is not being “given” anything. That is enough money to buy the air force a fourth squadron of F35s, or locally built another 3 Hobart air warfare destroyers, which the navy badly needs.

    The timing is also very strained. According to the ABC article ASC will not start to build SSNs until after the Virginias arrive in the “early 2030s”. So it will be mid 2030s, a ten year gap in employment as I have suggested before. In reality all the knowledge and experience of the Collins class construction will be gone by then. The job beneficiaries of this announcement are in primary school now. And if a Collins is lost with crew before then, no responsible minister will admit the blame.

    I hope Marles, Albanese and Malinauskus are not expecting too much praise for this decision. They will get some. But there will be real anger from others.

    There was no credible delivery plan for AUKUS when Morrison announced it. Now we have adopted a plan, but it is hard to imagine a slower, more costly, complex or riskier plan. And once again the whole program is justified by hand waving at Chine with no real explanation of what our obligation is. I hope AUKUS doesn’t fail, but this is a foolish decision IMO.

    Respectfully, Socrates, this is nonsense. You need to watch this:

    https://youtu.be/kYEfmAJBUMI?si=W1ShAY7fUU9t4bNp

    It’s 2 hours but it explodes every Anti AUKUS myth you have swallowed, with the cold, hard facts. If you don’t take the time to watch it then I will know that you do not care for the truth.

  28. Irene: ‘Another Labor mess, can’t manage money’

    AUKUS has more than a sniff of corruption at extreme levels about it. You can see why Labor and the Liberals conspired to make the NACC as secret as they could.

  29. “ To the extent that anyone who criticises the money going to the US and UK doesn’t know what they’re talking about. It’s money well-spent by our federal government to safeguard our future. And as the Mastercard ad goes, that’s priceless.”

    ________

    Jesus Christ!

    For $4.7 billion (US gift) + $4.6 billion (UK gift) the ASC would have built four Attack class submarines in Adelaide between 2024 and 2038; thereby allowing the Collins Class to be retired before 2040 and without the costly extra life extension program (another $6.4 billion dollars).

    In truth, the Canberra Establishment has agreed to waste over $15 billion (nearly $16 billion) in the next 15 years on three aspects of the ‘interim’ arrangements – each of which has a very VERY high probability of not working out.

    Only a madman – our in this case – a madwoman – would say that is ‘money well spent’ on safeguarding our future.

    Especially when for $15-16 billion we could have not only built 4 regionally superior conventional submarines but also paid France to also build us two nuclear attack submarines that would also be in service by 2038.

    And that, dear reader, is before we have to pay the really BIG dollars to buy either second hand Virginia Class submarines (which are not likely going to be forthcoming), or brand new ones (from 2038 apparently) OR invest tens of billions to start building the unicorn-esque SSN-AUKUS submarines in Adelaide from the middle of next decade.

    The fact is that we have passed up a chance to acquire at least 10 submarines (4-6 conventional blended with 4-6 nuclear subs [with the last nuclear powered ones build in adelaide after the conventional sub build ended]) on a very certain – low risk – time frame and at a total cost well south of $100 billion dollars (in turned out costs) for a program that is doomed to blow out well over the $368 billion figure being thrown about – even if all works.

    Paul Keating is wrong. This is not the worst deal ever. It’s much much worse than even that.

    Ps. We also shot ourselves in the head by missing out on a share of the Dutch submarine build, or potential orders for the barracuda baseline design from countries like Canada, Korea and India. So there is that as well.

  30. Tony Abbott’s Jap deal to buy D/E Soryu’s is looking good now.
    We’d only be 4 or 5 years away from delivery, plus they agreed to share the tech.
    Perhaps the NACC could inquire the reasons Turnbull dumped it?

  31. Pied Piper: ‘One seat in Qld elections last week has almost 50 percent of properties rented the other over 35.Vacancies rate for rentals in both seats also terrible.’

    A generation downstream from Howard and Costello, their legacy persists in the continuing erosion of home ownership.

    First home buyers continue to compete with taxpayer-subsidised ‘investors’ on a tilted playing field.

  32. Everyone piles on after Melania Trump looks like she just stepped in paint: Bill Palmer

    Donald Trump is mostly facing his downfall alone, aside from the occasional times when his kids show up and then he needs a card to remember their names. His wife Melania only surfaces occasionally, with many observers on social media quipping that perhaps she only does so when contractually obligated.

    In any case, Melania finally showed up again yesterday, but she was wearing a dress that made it look like she had just tripped and landed on a freshly painted wall or something:

    @RonFilipkowski

    A very authentic love affair.

    Suffice it to say that everyone on social media quickly piled on about the absurdity of the whole thing. Everyone should get their jokes in while they can, given that Melania seems to appear with her husband so rarely these days. Not that his addled brain probably even recognizes her at this point anyway.

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