The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5% (down half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of a 1710.
Aside from a dearth of published polling, the non-external factors that have contributed to this site being light on for posts lately have been the effort I’ve been putting in trying to get live results features up for the Tasmanian election (see above post) and tomorrow’s South Australian state by-election for Dunstan, which in the absence of any polling for the highly marginal seat should prove an interesting litmus test for Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government.
‘Dr Doolittle says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 2:55 pm
Boerwar at 1.54 pm
“My guess is that Hamer will look and sound very much like Ryan.”
Not all women look and sound alike, even as aspiring or existing politicians. Exhibit 1: Senator Cash.
If your guess is right, what is the Lib approach? Just pretend to be gender friendly, regardless of policies.
Not many voters, even in Kooyong (with all respect to B.S.F. and their neighbours) are that stupid.
Dutton has out-foxed you on the energy issue, by keeping climate change (in a very general and banal or limited way, but not in a profound policy sense) on the agenda, by default. Hamer will be asked, inter alia, if she supports Dutton’s nuclear push. Not even the Costello media could obscure that.
The Libs don’t have a housing policy, except to push up prices with dubious schemes. They will be hoping, as we all are, for another relatively wet summer. Otherwise they will be woefully exposed.’
—————————–
Liberal beige, I expect.
MB: “Hamer has worked outside of the political world …”
… as a staffer to Jane Hume?
“My guess is that Hamer will look and sound very much like Ryan.”
Ryan is one of the more bolshie of the Teals. Which may be her achilles heal in holding onto the seat.
My best guess is that Hamer will attempt to channel a mixture of Allegra Spender and Dame Julie Asbestos.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 3:32 pm
MB: “Hamer has worked outside of the political world …”
… as a staffer to Jane Hume?
———————
She has also worked in tech.
Entropy @ #747 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 2:47 pm
Can you go yay! that it destroyed the hardware but not yay that it destroyed human lives?
To which I will add that since Grant Shapps and David Cameron have come into the picture the UK has gotten on the front foot again wrt supplying Ukraine with armaments.
This is also why I am happy that Australia is linking up with the UK in a Coalition of the Good Guys. Of course, it will be even better when Labour win the next UK general election. 😉
#fingerscrossed
Mexicanbeemer @ #758 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 3:37 pm
That seems to be where a lot of intending and former Liberal MPs find a comfy sinecure.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 3:37 pm
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 3:32 pm
MB: “Hamer has worked outside of the political world …”
… as a staffer to Jane Hume?
———————
She has also worked in tech.
=========================================
Not really, she was “director of strategy at financial technology company Airwallex”. Which is a financial investment firm. So more venture capital and not tech work.
Entropy @ #761 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 3:45 pm
An accomplished paediatric neurologist vs another “well-connected” spiv influencer. Hm. I wonder whom the majority of non-Spivs might prefer?
There has not been a newspoll for close to a month
If there is one tonight
my guess
Labor 54%
lib/nats 46%
Labor primary vote 33%
Lib/nats combined primary vote 35%
”
gympiesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 9:41 am
O.S. says:
“Government takes an opposition seat … ”
Dutton is being undermined. Antic driving Ruston from the #1 Ticket and running a candidate to push her out of #2 doesn’t make any sense otherwise.
”
If Dutton is undermined in SA by Antic, then based on same thinking he is undermined in WA, VIC, TAS and NSW.
Entropy
Not really, she was “director of strategy at financial technology company Airwallex”. Which is a financial investment firm. So more venture capital and not tech work.
————
Its a digital platform and some would call that fintech.
Newspoll is the most accurate federal poll here yes?
What’s a Pediatric Neurologist actually do?
Is she a shrink for kids?
Her Wiki entry is light on details, such as: D.O.B; Family history; partner; kids; education.
Did she just appear ex nihilo?
Dr D thanks for the post re Tassie.
Tassie may be another data point that we have permanently entered a world of left of centre/ right of centre coalitions as compared to two party.
If true electoral reform would and should follow at some point.
Gympie, how was a person of your intelligence able to survive to adulthood?
rhwombat
Not really, she was “director of strategy at financial technology company Airwallex”. Which is a financial investment firm. So more venture capital and not tech work.
An accomplished paediatric neurologist vs another “well-connected” spiv influencer. Hm. I wonder whom the majority of non-Spivs might prefer?
————————
If there was no party branding so no Dutton factor and people just voted on demographics Hamer would start favorite.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:01 pm
Entropy
Not really, she was “director of strategy at financial technology company Airwallex”. Which is a financial investment firm. So more venture capital and not tech work.
————
Its a digital platform and some would call that fintech.
===================================================
She has nothing to do with setting up the technology aspects of the platform. Her background is in financial trading and venture capital.
“After growing up in the local suburb of Hawthorn, Ms Hamer moved to the United Kingdom to study philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University before working in financial trading and venture capital roles in London and San Francisco.”
All the major banks have fintech too. Yet we don’t describe bank executives as tech workers.
gympiesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:04 pm
What’s a Pediatric Neurologist actually do?
Is she a shrink for kids?
Her Wiki entry is light on details, such as: D.O.B; Family history; partner; kids; education.
Did she just appear ex nihilo?
———–
They are not strinks.
https://www.melbournepaediatricspecialists.com.au/paediatric-neurology/
Entropysays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:10 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:01 pm
Entropy
Not really, she was “director of strategy at financial technology company Airwallex”. Which is a financial investment firm. So more venture capital and not tech work.
————
Its a digital platform and some would call that fintech.
===================================================
She has nothing to do with setting up the technology aspects of the platform. Her background is in financial trading and venture capital.
“After growing up in the local suburb of Hawthorn, Ms Hamer moved to the United Kingdom to study philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University before working in financial trading and venture capital roles in London and San Francisco.”
——————————
Venture capitalists work closely with Fintech startups and Airwallex is in that space
https://www.airwallex.com/au/who-we-are
“If Dutton is undermined in SA by Antic, then based on same thinking he is undermined in WA, VIC, TAS and NSW.”
Don’t forget Qld, the Liberal Heirarchy there don’t want him either.
Whuich is too bad, he’s the shrewdest melon they’ve had since Howard and he’s got Albanese’s measure, but if he wins, he’ll be there a long time and the ambitions of others will die on the vine.
My opinion, he won’t be allowed to get to the Election as leader.
Is there any terminology differences In Australia for ‘Neurologist’?. I am not one however a childhood friend is that grew up with me a couple of farms away from ours south of Bulawayo where I came from originally as a kid. A neurologist in southern Africa is a specialised medical doctor that is concerned not with psychology but rather the brain and nervous system. Interesting how medical terms are different around the globe.
Entropy @ #768 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 4:10 pm
Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
No, Daniel, the issue here is that Gympie is a cretin.
Which is too bad, he’s the shrewdest melon they’ve had since Howard and he’s got Albanese’s measure
Peter Dutton has lost 2 gettable by-elections, in one of which Prime Minister Albanese got HIS measure by reconstructing the S3 tax cuts, and has learned his lesson from the referendum to box Peter Dutton in on his desire to attack the PM with another culture war over religion and LGBTQI+ issues.
Q: Did you notice the lack of high rise buildings in Ashkhabad
Ashgabat was dictator rebuilt entirely in Italian marble- hundreds of identical 20 story buildings- most empty.
The sad little remnant of the old town is where all the ‘action’ is…..
Here is the video of said dictator winning the Worlds Richest Horse Race – the Turkmenistan Cup….sort of!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIkurFloebs
Rex Douglas
Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
—————
Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.
“Gympie, how was a person of your intelligence able to survive to adulthood?”
By making a habit of only talking to people dumber than I am, William.
It’s working well, so far!
PPE at Oxford is not exactly a tech degree. An education in destructive political chicanery, if Liz Truss and many other recent Tory cabinet ministers are any guide. At least she didnt go to Eton
The Liberals picked Tim to face and lose to Zoe in Goldstein.
Hamer is either the Grand daughter of Senator David Hamer or Rhodes Scholar Alan Hamer, who has no Wiki entry.
In any case, she studied PPE at Oxford, so she’s always planned on a political career.
Thank you for validating my confusion William Bowe. I am a native Afrikaans speaker from Zimbabwe/Rhodesia and learnt Eng only at age 5 when time for kinder school. I wasn’t sure regarding terminologies.
Mexicanbeemer @ #780 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 4:29 pm
This talk of Central Asia reminds me of the success of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in giving its citizens democratic rights – something that all cold war warriors believed was worth fighting for.
(Admittedly the Baltic states, Moldova and Ukraine to a degree have been successful)
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 3:32 pm
“My guess is that Hamer will look and sound very much like Ryan.”
——————
The main issue might be for the significant Chinese ancestry voters in Kooyong, who swung to Ryan, as they did not want a war with China.
Voting for Hamer would be supporting the Liberals bellicose position on China. Eagerness to buy nuclear powered submarines for a future attack.
So, in my opinion, Ryan would be safe.
William Bowe Gympie comment gold!
Is Ryan running again ? The only reason for her to run again is because she expects to hold BOP in the HOR with the other teals .
She loses currency as a specialist if she runs again and that would be extremely difficult to regain after 5-6 years out of practice.
It could have been worse. At least Gympie didn’t accuse the paediatric neurologist of working out of a cellar under a pizza parlour in Washington.
@ $20,000+ / hour .. there & back for 2 Hornets… next time take an Uber… Shapps joy flight.. $2 spent by Australian defense is $2 wasted
A spokesperson for the Department of Defence confirmed the flight took place and said it was a good opportunity to show off Australia’s defence capability to a key ally.
“The flight was part of a demonstration of an important element of Australia’s defence capability, to one of our key defence partners,” a defence spokesperson said.
gympie, fyi:
A paediatric neurologist takes care of children with: Seizure disorders, including seizures in newborns, febrile convulsions, and epilepsy. Medical aspects of head injuries and brain tumours.
https://childneurologist.com.au
Stuff that some of the most intelligent among us are called to do because they need to do the job really, really well on the tiniest brains.
C@t serious ethical question for you – if Albo needed a kidney transplant would you give him one of yours ? And would you ask for anything in return or would it be free of charge/ anything for the cause ?
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:24 pm
Rex Douglas
Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
—————
Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.
=============================================
You doubt Ryan has any real experience?. What do you mean by that comment?.
Ryan worked as a paediatric neurologist in the Children’s Neurosciences Centre, Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne Australia. It is a public (not private) hospital and i am sure she saw lots of underprivileged children there.
Zoe has come straight out to announce she will be running again.
“The Liberals picked Tim to face and lose to Zoe in Goldstein.”
He’s gonna need a bigger watercannon.
Lars
You can retain recency by practicing 1 month a year and the definition of medical practice is broad. Most medical politicians do a couple of hours volunteer work a week.
I doubt if Ryan is concerned by recency or CPD.
The magic number for being off the register is 3 years after which you must undertake a retraining program.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, March 23, 2024 at 6:00 am
Will Albo accept any responsibility for a bad Tassie Labor result today?
=======================================================
Does Dutton also?.
Gympie are you from Gympie?. When my family were graciously re-settled as refugees in Australia from Zimbabwe in 2003 with nothing but a suitcase each we were settled near Gympie in Maryborough. We were treated so weel and accepted by the local communities. It makes me sad when people talk about QLD as a redneck place. Our experience as newly arrived refugees couldn’t have been more different.
MB has Ryan said she is recontesting ?
Mexicanbeemer @ #779 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 4:24 pm
Ryan has an FRACP in Paediatric Neurology. This means (like all Australian trained Specialist Physicians) Ryan has spent more than 10 years after graduating working grueling shifts as an RMO then generalist & specialist Registrar (consultant in training) at public hospitals who take all comers with all problems & no exclusions. Privilege doesn’t exist. Ryan spent 20 years getting real experience of working with underprivileged kids & adults in public systems. Finance is monetised privilege not reality for all but the Spiv elite. Check your own fucking privilege before you compare.
So OC does that mean Ryan has to retrain if she recontests and wins the next election?
Entropysays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:59 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:24 pm
Rex Douglas
Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
—————
Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.
=============================================
You doubt Ryan has any real experience?. What do you mean by that comment?.
Ryan worked as a paediatric neurologist in the Children’s Neurosciences Centre, Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne Australia. It is a public (not private) hospital and i am sure she saw lots of underprivileged children there.
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We all walk past homeless people but most of us have no experience of being homeless. Ryan might have had patients from disadvantage backgrounds but she probably has no experience of that.