The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5% (down half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of a 1710.
Aside from a dearth of published polling, the non-external factors that have contributed to this site being light on for posts lately have been the effort I’ve been putting in trying to get live results features up for the Tasmanian election (see above post) and tomorrow’s South Australian state by-election for Dunstan, which in the absence of any polling for the highly marginal seat should prove an interesting litmus test for Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government.
RHW
For some reason I always confuse the diseases “Kuru” and “Koro”:
Kuru is a prion disease transmitted by the eating of brains in the funereal practices of the Fore people
Koro is a mass hysteria, most commonly seen in South East Asia, where suffers believe their penis is retracting into their body and will disappear. There was a particularly severe epidemic in Singapore in October 1967. If it ever occurs in Australia I intend to follow the path of Singaporean entrepreneurs and offer, at high price, bamboo penis extension sheaths which are very effective at reducing further penis retraction.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 12:10 pm
RHW
For some reason I always confuse the diseases “Kuru” and “Koro”:
Kuru is a prion disease transmitted by the eating of brains in the funereal practices of the Fore people
Koro is a mass hysteria, most commonly seen in South East Asia, where suffers believe their penis is retracting into their body and will disappear. There was a particularly severe epidemic in Singapore in October 1967. If it ever occurs in Australia I intend to follow the path of Singaporean entrepreneurs and offer, at high price, bamboo penis extension sheaths which are very effective at reducing further penis retraction.’
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Spelling matters.
Tajikistan is the Wild West. I avoided it. Uzbekistan, more controlled but has the extremist fundies in the Fergana Valley. These extremists are active in and supporting of conflicts around the world and were prominent in tajikistans civil war in the late 90s.
If Torch is around…. Did you go to Tajikistan? Way too dangerous for me in 2001 (it would have been September!). But I so wanted to see it.
Team Katich
I’m not on a crusade on not eating animals, birds, fish or products made from or by them, I just note that this form of agriculture is immensely polluting, inherently inhumane, and the consumption unnecessary for human well-being.
One day, should they survive to do so, human descendants will consider the forced breeding of creatures that feel physical and emotional pain purely for consumption despite available options to avoid doing so simply because it tastes ‘orgasmic’ as barbaric.
My initial comment was in response to the suggestion by Rainman that people of good conscience farm broad-acre livestock not feedlots.
With this I shall now withdraw on the subject.
Diogenes @ #696 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 11:53 am
Prions are a particular persistent neuronal protein shape (“beta-pleated”) which act as templates. Unlike microbial proteins they have no molecular mechanism to get into the neurons where they accumulate – they have to be eaten, digested & transported to the brain to have any detectable effect. Hence both the rarity & usual epidemiology of exposure to brain or gut contaminated meat to transmit prion diseases like kuru, BSE, scrapie & cervid wasting disease. There are rare inherited congenital forms such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob & fatal familial insomnia. They are all very long duration fatal diseases.
Dio, dont public hospitals treat private patients?
@P1, re: Constance vs Phillips – with her tory blue pom poms out for all to see:
“She should work a bit harder for her electorate, and not just on getting re-elected.
If she did that, she would have a chance.”
TK
Certainly do. But normally private hospitals don’t treat public patients. During Covid that changed in a big way as the public system paid to get elective surgery done in private. But now the private hospitals are at capacity, they don’t want public lists. And the public hospitals are full. So the elective lists are blowing out.
Wombat
Why don’t they happen in the liver, for example? Is it that liver cells turn over?
I read a great book about familial insomnia. Horrible.
Diogenes
The thing I omitted form my ToC comment was that the LOAD of patients coming into the hospital system has been increasing, both through population and ageing and people bypassing GPs, etc.
BK
Complexity is a huge problem. They used to turn up with one serious disease and now it’s two or three.
Diogenes @ #712 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 12:49 pm
No. Prions are beta-pleated amyloid proteins – part of the neuronal transport mechanisms that allow neurons to live for decades without dividing. Hepatocytes & Kupfer cells don’t use amyloid proteins in the same way as neurons & turn over rapidly & continuously. You can get amyloidosis of the liver, but not Alzheimer’s or prion disease.
Since it cropped up in the Tassie/Dunstun thread.
Can we dispense with the AUKUS/Subs chat now? The Libs signed us up to it and Labor has embraced it. It’s happening whether right or wrong, whether you like it or not. Move on.
For Lars et. al.
Here is an interesting summary from Dr Bonham of the Tassie Libs’ attempt at an early election:
“The major parties tried at this election to scare voters away from chaos, but both were themselves chaos that faked that its name was stability. The Liberals offered a campaign as disordered as a candidate lineup that ranged from MPs to the left of Malcolm Turnbull to people who belong in One Nation or Australian Christians and should never have been endorsed by a major party. The Liberal campaign was a hyperactive animal that thought that it would die if it did not throw three dead cats a week. But after leaving nothing on the table as it tried to prevent voters electing a hung parliament, it has come back with … nothing. It started the election polling in the mid to high 30s and it finished there. At least there was some humour there but what on earth was that?”
He also notes that enough voters preferred chaos, out of ignorance, for this parliament to get hung:
“Hare-Clark doesn’t have two-party preferred as such, but rough estimates can be derived. I may refine this later but this election between the major parties has been a draw, or nearly so. The 2PP equivalent will be somewhere near 50-50 (which would be an 8% swing), perhaps with Labor just slightly in front, but under compulsory preferences it would have been about 53.5-46.5 to Labor. I think a slight majority of voters wanted the Government gone, but enough of those of that view would have voted 1-7 and stopped that their ballot papers won’t fully reflect that.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/tasmania-embraces-chaos-2024-election.html
Thanks BK! I always enjoy learning about a theory I haven’t come across before. Some functional procrastination beckons 🙂
@Diogenes, I read this book chapter a few weeks ago for a related project (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-20168-4_12) I found it a well described analysis of an emergency department as a complex system. Even I managed to follow along.
Griff
Is the book good? I’m looking for a book on complexity theory and hospital systems. I’ve got a MPhil student starting in a few months who wants to use quantum computing and complexity theory to look at ED flow. Could be a steep learning curve for me!!
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 11:22 am
I see that the Liberals have finally woken up with their Hamer Kooyong preselection: set a Teal to catch a Teal.
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She was a former staffer of Jane Hume though. Is Jane Hume also a teal?.
I think the point Boerwar was making is that Hamer isn’t your standard run of the mill Liberal candidate in that she’s female and aged under 50.
Irenesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 12:06 pm
Entropy said I should post this on the general site.
===================================================
My preference would be for you not to post it all but if you must pollute a thread with this monotonous submarine argument. Don’t do it on the Tassie and Dunstan election threads was more my point.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 1:37 pm
I think the point Boerwar was making is that Hamer isn’t your standard run of the mill Liberal candidate in that she’s female and aged under 50.
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Jane Hume is female and entered parliament aged 45 years old.
Are you no longer practicing in plastics, Dio?
An interesting aspect of SA Health is that there are virtually no FRACMAs, which raises the question of whether that particular specialty adds anything to hospital management.
Confessions says:
“I think the point Boerwar was making is that Hamer isn’t your standard run of the mill Liberal candidate in that she’s female and aged under 50.”
As is Georgina Downer.
Who, like Hamer, is descended from Liberal ‘aristocracy’.
And yet …
The federal Lib/nats will be lucky to hold onto seats in Victoria , and will be lucky to win back seats they lost at the by-election or 2022 federal election
Boerwar at 11.22 am, Entropy at 1.33 pm and Confessions at 1.37 pm
It is not novel for the Libs to preselect a woman for an apparently, or rather erstwhile, safe inner Melb seat. The two Lib members for Higgins after Peter Costello, Kelly O’Dwyer of the Fancy Toaster fame and Katie Allen, were women. The Libs have never had a female MP for Kooyong, but they may have missed their chance.
Amelia Hamer is not a Teal. All Teal MPs are women but not all women are Teals, not even the rich ones.
“Ms Hamer studied at Oxford university before working in banking, venture capital and technology.
She nominated cost-of-living pressures and helping people become home owners as key issues she hopes to address.”
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/03/24/liberal-royalty-amelia-hamer
Royal Blue is not Teal, even on a silk blouse. Kooyong isn’t struggle street, nor short of home-owners
Diogenes says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 1:31 pm
Griff
Is the book good? I’m looking for a book on complexity theory and hospital systems. I’ve got a MPhil student starting in a few months who wants to use quantum computing and complexity theory to look at ED flow. Could be a steep learning curve for me!!
_________
Cool! I have Markov modelling as the method lined up for a transition of care pathway once the project is complete in a year or so, but it sounds like your student will be doing something even more fun. Regarding the book, I only read the single chapter so far, so cannot recommend the rest as yet. But definitely recommend that chapter as an introduction to complexity and ED, and the flow process/journey work they did was helpful (NB: I think the y axis is flipped in Fig 3).
If Hamer was a Teal she’d be a Teal, and not represent a radically extreme modern day L/NP.
Tasmanian Labor concedes election – reports
The ABC is reporting that Tasmanian Labor has declared it has lost the state election and will not attempt to form a minority government.
Then this:
Update on that last post about the Tasmanian election – Adam Morton, our reporter on the ground at White’s press conference, says the story may be more nuanced than what the ABC first reported. Stand by and we’ll bring you the latest.
*sigh
While there are exceptions (eg Georgina Downer), the reality is that if you are going to win preselection for the Liberals, you are far more likely to be male. That the Teals are all women is no coincidence, having tapped into the perception in these former Liberal seats that the party is pale, male and stale.
Boerwar has simply observed that in preselecting a younger woman for Kooyong, the Liberals may (big may) have finally realised that running an older man in the electorate will simply exacerbate the pale, male and stale perception.
Yet Hamer will fall into line by pushing nuclear and prolonging fossil fuels which is blowing up the economy and the environment.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 1:48 pm
Boerwar at 11.22 am, Entropy at 1.33 pm and Confessions at 1.37 pm
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I agree, i think she is another Jane Hume with a bit more nepotism involved. I think “OS” suggestion of Georgina Downer might be a bit far though. I think she is probably more competent than that.
Teals come in all shapes, sizes, tints, hues and saturations. Are steggall’s views all that different from Hamer’s?
The Teals to date have given themselves an extremely broad remit.
My guess is that Hamer will look and sound very much like Ryan.
Boerwar @ #732 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 1:54 pm
When asked about nuclear, she will not ‘sound very much like Ryan’.
The individual Teals have various positions on nuclear – or none. Who knows? They were not voted on their nuclear policy positions because they gave themselves an extremely broad policy remit.
Their next challenge is to shift from being vaguely against corruption, a lack of climate action and against bad treatment of women to being specific about a whole range of policies.
Not an easy switch. In that process they will tend to show how policy diverse they really are.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 1:54 pm
Teals come in all shapes, sizes, tints, hues and saturations. Are steggall’s views all that different from Hamer’s?
The Teals to date have given themselves an extremely broad remit.
My guess is that Hamer will look and sound very much like Ryan.
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“is a former adviser to former financial services minister Jane Hume. She has been endorsed by former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-royalty-picked-to-replace-frydenberg-as-liberal-candidate-in-kooyong-20240322-p5fekm.html
I suspect her beliefs will more align with Jane Hume who she was a former advisor to and Jeff Kennett who endorsed her. These people hardly hold teal type beliefs.
OC
I’m still practicing but I’ve got a sideline in machine learning now.
FRACMA might become more important when the hearing in the UK into all the baby murders finds that hospital executives have no standards or qualifications to be accountable for.
I think it is time that Greens party voters have a closer inspection of their ballot paper when deciding on the preferences. It is clear that the Labor parties state and federal are moving ever more to the right and see themselves ever more opposed to Greens party values.
I still think Teals will reject Duttons nuclear crap. The Teals were backed by Climate 200 in the last election and I doubt nuclear is one of their options.
Yes, for all the faults in its training and selection of candidates, at least FRACMA is an accredited qualification
Labor’s aversion to minority Govt is a denial of the electoral trends happening right now with increases to minor party and independent primary votes.
Labor is essentially managing themselves out of governing in the future if they are not prepared to share power.
Q: If Torch is around…. Did you go to Tajikistan?
No- I think you summed up Central Asia pretty well, ….I did get to Turkmenistan though (often ranked more closed than Nth Korea)….now that was interesting!!!
A thread on homelessness…
https://twitter.com/elias_greig/status/1771455780891320612
torchbearer at 2.22 pm
Did you notice the lack of high rise buildings in Ashkhabad, unless the tin-pot dictators have changed that? There was a terrible earthquake there in 1948 that flattened much of the city. I was there in 1987. One old rug-weaver pointed to a green rug and said (in Russian) “nash musulmansky flag” (our Muslim flag).
Quote from OSINTtechnical: “Appears that at least three Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles just slammed into a major Russian Black Sea Fleet communications center.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/24/7447842/
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 2:22 pm
Labor’s aversion to minority Govt is a denial of the electoral trends happening right now with increases to minor party and independent primary votes.
Labor is essentially managing themselves out of governing in the future if they are not prepared to share power.
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If the current trend of the lib/nat opposition combined primary vote is around 36% , there will unlikely be many hung parliaments ,
I’m not on a crusade on not eating animals,
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Me neither. I wouldn’t dream of telling people what to eat. Nor judging people on their eating habits (or judging my own first 30 odd years of eating habits). But I am happy to share my story and thoughts (as should you). Nobody should feel either guilt or righteousness. There are lots of different ways to live a good honourable life and eating or not eating meat doesn’t gets you a direct ticket to anywhere.
A very close mate eats meat regularly. We talk about the health aspects of that (he has become far more healthier since removing carbs but maintaining meat and upping fibrous veg). He grew up on a farm, he knows where the meat comes from. Feedlots are a complicated and interesting topic of discussion.
Rex: I’m no expert on Tasmanian political history but I think the circumstances are fairly unique. I would think that if the ALP in my state falls short of majority in this year’s election and the greens come up with 4 or 5 seats they would have no issues forming minority government with them. Each state ALP is different and from my small knowledge the ALP in Tasmania was at least in the past, pretty conservative and not great on environmental issues. Still way better the the Libs though.
But i do agree that The greens and independents vote rise will come into action , as we seen in the 2022 federal election in QLD, Victoria will have more impact on Lib/nats seats,
The more seats Lib/nats lose the better , pressure will be on lib/nats to change
Hamer and Downer are very different because Downer was the daughter and granddaughter of Liberal MP’s and has always working in the political world but Hamer has worked outside of the political world and is the grand niece of someone that left political office over forty years ago. Monique Ryan won big among boomers gen-x and millennial women and the older group might be attracted to the Hamer name.
Hamer and Downer are very different because Downer was the daughter and granddaughter of Liberal MP’s and has always working in the political world but Hamer has worked outside of the political world and is the grand niece of someone that left political office over forty years ago. Monique Ryan won big among boomers gen-x and millennial women and the older group might be attracted to the Hamer name.
Boerwar at 1.54 pm
“My guess is that Hamer will look and sound very much like Ryan.”
Not all women look and sound alike, even as aspiring or existing politicians. Exhibit 1: Senator Cash.
If your guess is right, what is the Lib approach? Just pretend to be gender friendly, regardless of policies.
Not many voters, even in Kooyong (with all respect to B.S.F. and their neighbours) are that stupid.
Dutton has out-foxed you on the energy issue, by keeping climate change (in a very general and banal or limited way, but not in a profound policy sense) on the agenda, by default. Hamer will be asked, inter alia, if she supports Dutton’s nuclear push. Not even the Costello media could obscure that.
The Libs don’t have a housing policy, except to push up prices with dubious schemes. They will be hoping, as we all are, for another relatively wet summer. Otherwise they will be woefully exposed.