Roy Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor (open thread)

Amid a drought of federal opinion polling, a sedate result from the often volatile Roy Morgan series.

The only federal poll for the week was the regular weekly Roy Morgan, which had Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down half), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12.5% (down half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of a 1710.

Aside from a dearth of published polling, the non-external factors that have contributed to this site being light on for posts lately have been the effort I’ve been putting in trying to get live results features up for the Tasmanian election (see above post) and tomorrow’s South Australian state by-election for Dunstan, which in the absence of any polling for the highly marginal seat should prove an interesting litmus test for Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

912 thoughts on “Roy Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor (open thread)”

  1. Entropy if you read Kevin Bonham he made an oblique reference to federal drag factors in reference to Tassie labor’s result.

    WRT the libs the state vote is now about the same as the federal vote – so more a loss of state support.

  2. rhwombatsays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:04 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #779 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 4:24 pm

    Rex Douglas
    Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
    —————
    Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.

    Ryan has an FRACP in Paediatric Neurology. This means (like all Australian trained Specialist Physicians) Ryan has spent more than 10 years after graduating working grueling shifts as an RMO then generalist & specialist Registrar (consultant in training) at public hospitals who take all comers with all problems & no exclusions. Privilege doesn’t exist. Ryan spent 20 years getting real experience of working with underprivileged kids & adults in public systems. Finance is monetised privilege not reality for all but the Spiv elite. Check your own fucking privilege before you compare.
    ————————–
    Ryan has worked in the public health system and that might have given her an awareness of social disadvantage but that doesn’t give experience of being disadvantaged and homeless.

  3. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:06 pm

    Entropysays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:59 pm
    Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:24 pm
    Rex Douglas
    Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
    —————
    Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.
    =============================================

    You doubt Ryan has any real experience?. What do you mean by that comment?.
    Ryan worked as a paediatric neurologist in the Children’s Neurosciences Centre, Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne Australia. It is a public (not private) hospital and i am sure she saw lots of underprivileged children there.
    ———————————
    We all walk past homeless people but most of us have no experience of being homeless.
    ….’
    ————————–
    You would be surprised. Have a look at the definition of homeless. By that definition I have been homeless by statistical definition during something like three periods in my life.

  4. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:06 pm
    Entropysays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:59 pm
    Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:24 pm
    Rex Douglas
    Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
    —————
    Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.
    =============================================

    You doubt Ryan has any real experience?. What do you mean by that comment?.
    Ryan worked as a paediatric neurologist in the Children’s Neurosciences Centre, Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne Australia. It is a public (not private) hospital and i am sure she saw lots of underprivileged children there.
    ———————————
    We all walk past homeless people but most of us have no experience of being homeless. Ryan might have had patients from disadvantage backgrounds but she probably has no experience of that.
    ===============================================

    You copied and pasted the original question yourself and still change the goal post on it. The question was “any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?”. It wasn’t did she have experience being homeless. The words were clearly stated as “working with”. Your answer is just a deflection as far as i’m concerned.

  5. Interesting Lars
    She would need to do 160 hours volunteer medical work and 50 hours CPD per year to retain full registration but she has gone onto the non-practicing register
    https://www.ahpra.gov.au/Registration/Registers-of-Practitioners.aspx

    After 3 years on that, if she runs again, she will need to submit a retraining plan to be considered for full registration. AHPRA can be quite strict with this plan but there are some, not me of course, who believe that the process has an inherent bias towards ANZ graduates.
    (Look at recent re-registration of William Mooney)

  6. Mexicanbeemer @ #803 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 5:06 pm

    Entropysays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:59 pm
    Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:24 pm
    Rex Douglas
    Any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?
    —————
    Doubt Ryan and Hamer have any real experience.
    =============================================

    You doubt Ryan has any real experience?. What do you mean by that comment?.
    Ryan worked as a paediatric neurologist in the Children’s Neurosciences Centre, Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne Australia. It is a public (not private) hospital and i am sure she saw lots of underprivileged children there.
    ———————————
    We all walk past homeless people but most of us have no experience of being homeless. Ryan might have had patients from disadvantage backgrounds but she probably has no experience of that.

    When you are the registrar on call in a public hospital in Melbourne, Mount Druitt (or in Ryan’s case Boston) you don’t get to walk past the reasons the patient is there – including the poverty & deprivation that breed disease. It is real & it is your problem at that time, no matter how privileged your upbringing. In fact it taught me the shame of privilege.

  7. On the whole, it was probably a better result for Labor then was feared. The whole messy situation with David O’Byrne is the Feds fault. If his result is added to the rest of Labor’s, they get 31% which is a bit healthier.

    Nobody has spoken about the Greens attempting to form a minority government with support of the JLN and ALP.

  8. The Liberals will have a housing policy at the next election.

    Plain as.

    It will have two planks.

    The first is to restrict immigration to some as yet unspecified number.
    The second is to liberate super savings for housing investments.

  9. Entropys
    You copied and pasted the original question yourself and still change the goal post on it. The question was “any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?”. It wasn’t did she have experience being homeless. The words were clearly stated as “working with”. Your answer is just a deflection as far as i’m concerned.
    ——————————
    Ryan’s conversations with patients would have been mostly about their medical conditions and nothing else so her experience is minimal if anything.

  10. Mexicanbeemer @ #811 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 5:23 pm

    Entropys
    You copied and pasted the original question yourself and still change the goal post on it. The question was “any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?”. It wasn’t did she have experience being homeless. The words were clearly stated as “working with”. Your answer is just a deflection as far as i’m concerned.
    ——————————
    Ryan’s conversations with patients would have been mostly about their medical conditions and nothing else so her experience is minimal if anything.

    Seriously?

  11. Oakeshott country
    ——————————
    Ryan’s conversations with patients would have been mostly about their medical conditions and nothing else so her experience is minimal if anything.

    Seriously?
    ———————
    The doctor will ask how things going but from my experience most of the time is spent on the medical condition.

  12. Mexicanbeemer @ #813 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 5:28 pm

    Oakeshott country
    ——————————
    Ryan’s conversations with patients would have been mostly about their medical conditions and nothing else so her experience is minimal if anything.

    Seriously?
    ———————
    The doctor will ask how things going but from my experience most of the time is spent on the medical condition.

    And, of course, the medical condition has nothing to do with their social situation.
    As RHW said, one of the most draining aspects of medical practice is the empathy that you develop with a patient’s circumstances.

  13. Thanks Oliver voor that link.

    When I had made a read through of Gympie’s post I wondered how someone could be so stupid in mixing up neurology with psychology. I would like to think the political class in Oz is much smarter than such basic mistakes. The gympie tree would fit very well in my homeland. My old family farm near Gweru and just 5 km south of the Pocock family farm was full of poisons and bad to eat or step on plants. Plants are just the least of your worries there and you need to be more concerned about the black and green mambas, bull elephants in season and the hyenas.

  14. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 4:12 pm
    **************
    That was kind of you but I wouldn’t assume Gympie had any interest in an answer to their question.

  15. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:23 pm
    Entropys
    You copied and pasted the original question yourself and still change the goal post on it. The question was “any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?”. It wasn’t did she have experience being homeless. The words were clearly stated as “working with”. Your answer is just a deflection as far as i’m concerned.
    ——————————
    Ryan’s conversations with patients would have been mostly about their medical conditions and nothing else so her experience is minimal if anything.
    ===================================================

    This “Gympie” level BS now. Which “rhwombat” has already addressed and shown how flawed your argument on this is. Yet you still persist with all the facts lined up against you. So not much point me arguing further on this.

  16. The Liberal Party has preselected Tim Wilson for the seat of Goldstein at the next election. It’s a party decision made in what they believe is their best interest. I am proud to be a community-backed Independent, acting in the best interest of my community. I will run again. pic.twitter.com/PVvQ9UJVAU— Zoe Daniel MP (she/her) (@zdaniel) March 24, 2024

  17. Mexicanbeemer @ #814 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 5:23 pm

    Entropys
    You copied and pasted the original question yourself and still change the goal post on it. The question was “any experience working with the homeless and underprivileged …?”. It wasn’t did she have experience being homeless. The words were clearly stated as “working with”. Your answer is just a deflection as far as i’m concerned.
    ——————————
    Ryan’s conversations with patients would have been mostly about their medical conditions and nothing else so her experience is minimal if anything.

    You have no real idea of disease or medicine except how it affects you personally, do you? Good luck with that view in future when it becomes personal. You may learn some empathy.

  18. Boerwar at 5.21 pm

    Very holey planks if that’s all the Libs will be walking on. They sort of tried the second bit with ProMo and Josh in the first phase of the pandemic. All economists know it compounds housing shortages, especially for those most affected by price increases.

    They sort of tried the first bit in a turbo-charged, supposedly anti-crime way, in Dunkley, and flopped.

    RW parties elsewhere (e.g. Europe) that exploit immigration for disastrous policy ends do not have the Teal problem to contend with. While you think the Teals have peaked, if you look at the Lib election review document they are not so confident. And they could be right. More Lib seats could still go Teal.

  19. Financially – parly is a step down for Ryan and Spender , suspect same or a step up for the other teals.

    For most Labor and a majority of Libs it’s a step up.

  20. Wilson said: “Our community is facing enormous challenges like cost of living, and homeownership getting further out of reach. Households are under real cost-of-living pressure. Families are struggling to pay their mortgages. Grandparents are having to pick up their grandchildren’s school fees. I will fight every day to deliver real cost-of-living relief.”
    Why won’t Albo do something for the grandparents?
    Wilson lost because the voters of up market Goldstein didn’t like Morrison’s politics and Wilson’s enthusiastic embrace of it.
    Whether Dutton has done anything to change the view will be a fun watch.

  21. rhwombat
    You have no real idea of disease or medicine except how it affects you personally, do you? Good luck with that view in future when it becomes personal. You may learn some empathy.
    ——————
    Thanks for your condescending BS.

  22. What is Pediatric Neurology

    from a U.S. site

    :
    “A number of pediatric neurologists choose careers in laboratory-based, clinical, or translational research, meaning that the subspecialties of this field can attract individuals with Ph.D. degrees, medical degrees (MDs), or other forms of advanced training related to research.”
    Ryan trained in Boston, by that reading she may not have had any interaction with childrem, yet still be called a P.D.
    Issue#2, what treatments does the P.D. administer/refer/etc.
    All websites are pretty coy about that.

  23. Depending on who the federal liberal party leader is at the time of the 2025 federal election

    That leader will unlikely be campaigning much in non lib/nats held seats

  24. Lars at 5.43 pm

    Isn’t Allegra Spender what used to be called “a woman of means”, not reliant on a salary for her wealth?

  25. MadHouse @ #713 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 1:13 pm

    Since it cropped up in the Tassie/Dunstun thread.

    Can we dispense with the AUKUS/Subs chat now? The Libs signed us up to it and Labor has embraced it. It’s happening whether right or wrong, whether you like it or not. Move on.

    No. AUKUS is a catastrophic blunder that will eventually need to be corrected.

    Hopefully, before we have blown the entire $368 billion.

  26. Boerwar @ #700 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 12:07 pm

    Actually, on current technologies we will have to stop flying to reach zero net fifty.

    China’s air construction industry alone has orders for around a thousand fossil-fueled. passenger planes.

    So, for fossil fuels, you blame demand. But for aircraft, you blame supply.

    Figures.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood @ #707 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 12:25 pm

    @P1, re: Constance vs Phillips – with her tory blue pom poms out for all to see:

    “She should work a bit harder for her electorate, and not just on getting re-elected.

    If she did that, she would have a chance.”

    You disagree? You should ask a few people here in Gilmore about how Fiona Phillips is doing. And not just the usual Labor partisans.

  28. Paediatric neurology is a very tough specialty. Lots of severely disabled kids with developmental delays who need constant care from their normally amazing parents. Many cant be cured and can barely be improved.

  29. Diogenessays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 6:07 pm
    Paediatric neurology is a very tough specialty. Lots of severely disabled kids with developmental delays who need constant care from their normally amazing parents. Many cant be cured and can barely be improved.
    ————-
    Its differently a touch specialty but abed bodied people have no experience of being disabled but that has gone over some abled bodied people’s heads.

  30. Dr D and OC, Allegra would have to be a contender for wealthiest member of parly – but there may be others in that category.

  31. Lars desperately spinning to say that the Tasmanian result is actually bad for Federal ALP and the Tasmanian Libs vote matches with federal L-NP. Hence nothing to see here.
    According to Lars, it is out and bad result for Federal ALP.
    Even gympie, FUBAR didn’t say that.

  32. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:44 pm
    rhwombat
    You have no real idea of disease or medicine except how it affects you personally, do you? Good luck with that view in future when it becomes personal. You may learn some empathy.
    ——————
    Thanks for your condescending BS.
    =================================================

    Is your problem with Ryan the fact she is a very successful and high achieving women in her chosen career?. Even before she successfully ran for parliament too.

  33. Vensays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 6:58 pm
    Lars desperately spinning to say that the Tasmanian result is actually bad for Federal ALP and the Tasmanian Libs vote matches with federal L-NP. Hence nothing to see here.
    According to Lars, it is out and bad result for Federal ALP.
    Even gympie, FUBAR didn’t say that.
    ==============================================

    What does Lars say about the Dunstan result?.

  34. The tasmania state election result was bad for federal lib/nats in number of ways
    1- Cost of living the lib/nats and their propaganda media keep on claiming its the main election referendum – 12% swing away from the liberal party state government – 1% swing to Labor

    2- The liberal party state primary vote was 36.6% – Lib/nats will not form majority government , whether its Federal / State / Territory

  35. Player One says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 6:49 pm

    Boerwar @ #841 Sunday, March 24th, 2024 – 6:35 pm

    Goodness me. P1 has solved the animal methane issue. Brilliant stuff.

    It’s fossil fuels. Necessary and sufficient.

    Everything else you post is your usual attempt to sow doubt, distort, deflect, delay and deny.’
    ———————-
    Projection and scientifically inaccurate.

  36. Entropysays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 7:01 pm
    Mexicanbeemersays:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 5:44 pm
    rhwombat
    You have no real idea of disease or medicine except how it affects you personally, do you? Good luck with that view in future when it becomes personal. You may learn some empathy.
    ——————
    Thanks for your condescending BS.
    =================================================

    Is your problem with Ryan the fact she is a very successful and high achieving women in her chosen career?. Even before she successfully ran for parliament too.
    ——————-
    I have no problem with Ryan.

  37. Mexicanbeemer, are you a practicing doctor? Because the people you are arguing with actually are. You don’t think that they might just know a bit more than you on this topic?

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