Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Essential Research continues to point to a close race, while Labor maintains a lead in Roy Morgan without matching last week’s result.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll finds Labor recovering the lead on its 2PP+ measure after losing it for the first time in the previous poll, albeit just barely. The primary votes, which include a 5% undecided component (up one), have Labor up two to 32%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down two to 11% and One Nation up one to 8%, while Labor’s 48-47 lead on 2PP+ (likewise with 5% undecided) reverses the result from last time.

Further questions focus on foreign policy, with a three-choice question on “Australia’s role in global affairs” finding 20% opting for “primarily an ally of the US”, 38% for “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” and 25% for “Australia should do its best not to engage in world affairs”. On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 18% felt Israel justified in its present course with a further 20% saying it should agree to a temporary ceasefire, while 37% felt it should permanently withdraw. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1216.

After a Labor blowout in the last poll, the weekly Roy Morgan has its two-party lead in from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down two), Coalition 38% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 4% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1714.

The date of the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook has been set at April 13, with nominations to be declared on March 22. Labor is yet to formally determine if it will field a candidate, but has offered public indications that it is unlikely to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,366 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Rainmansays:
    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 12:52 am
    Dolt definition: 1. a stupid person
    Cambridge Dictionary

    If i called out everyone calling someone stupid on this blog. I would be calling out lots of people.

    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 12:55 am

    I do not just instantly reply to people’s posts by making some smart arse comment and calling them stupid.

    You were using bigot instead.

  2. As long as appropriate notice is given to those who will be affected, I can’t see how there’s anything wrong with ending 3G services. These networks can’t just be maintained forever.

    You can pick up a cheap phone with 4G capabilities from the supermarket for something like $100, and even less then that if you buy one used on the internet. It’ll be a dreadful phone, yes, but it will make calls. There are also these things called landlines, which may be increasingly rare among the younger generations but can probably still be found in the homes of most of these hypothetical elderly pensioners people are suddenly so worried about. I mean, seriously, how many old folks do you think are out there that have a fifteen-year-old Motorola but no landline telephone???

  3. Entropy

    I didn’t just make some smart arse comment and instantly call you a bigot.

    I tried to explain to you that there was a difference between ordinary people who identify as Catholics and the institution of the Church, that not all Catholics strictly adhered to Church teachings, and that for many their religion was part of their culture and their heritage. You responded that being a member of the Church was comparable with being a member of the Liberals political party and that, therefore, ordinary Australian Catholics are complicit in the evil doings of the institution.

    And that’s when I called you a bigot.

    And then I said I was done talking to you about this.

  4. Rainmansays:
    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 1:19 am

    It wasn’t just me it was nath too plus Macarthur. Though it might have been your mate “Rakali: and not you that called Macarthur a bigot?. The word was being tossed around a bit by both of you though.

  5. Sorry, I should have given a little more explanation given I didn’t link the article. The 3G shutdown is also going to affect some 4G phones which fallback to 3G for emergency calls. So people’s phones will be working fine after the 3G shutdown, until they go to call triple 0 and can’t. I’m not a Lib either btw, just pointing out ministerial incompetence.

  6. Melanie, I’m a professor of telecommunications engineering with decades of experience.

    The issue you are describing is scare mongering, nothing more. 3G is phased out when 4G provides equivalent coverage. Customers have been given plenty of notice and there are 4G vanilla big button phones available for those who can’t handle smart phones.

    This is no different to when 2G was phased out. Chances are you didn’t notice.

    It *is* different to the situation with analogue (AMPS) in 1999 and CDMA, because those technologies weren’t compatible with the European 3GPP standards behind our current networks.

    There’s plenty to criticise in the policy space. This isn’t one of them.

  7. “This Australia Post Lettergram is historically significant because it was the last one to be sent in Australia before Australia Post closed down the Australian Telegraphic Service, at 5.00 pm on Thursday 30 September, 1993”

    All downhill for Australia Post from this moment!

  8. Goll
    A great tragedy, wedding receptions were never the same after the telegraph service closed.

    I see the “Hot Seat” excuse was in play last night. “The end of World War 2, Eddie? Well it happened before I was born, so I am not sure of the date.”

  9. 3G isn’t just used in phones. Some people will have to replace perfectly functioning equipment that costs a lot more than a phone.

    Oh, I miss analogue. I worked offshore for 6 months way out on the WA shelf. In the evenings I could call my girlfriend on a crystal clear analogue connection (to the mainland tower and then across the trunk network to a Sydney landline) and describe the humpbacks gliding past, or the thousands of fairy terns twinkling in the glow of the setting sun etc.

    our phones today are very smart. But the voice quality is crud. Sure, I can do video calls to my kids when away, but somehow the crystal clear voice calls made it feel like you were closer to loved ones. Ahhhhh, the good ole days.

  10. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:03 pm
    The Military have to follow the orders of the Commander-In-Chief. Or they can mutiny

    Not correct, the Military take an oath uphold the Constitution, in Trumps presidency the top brass ignored his directions … the question is would they do the same again

  11. Sceptic @ #1363 Monday, March 18th, 2024 – 6:39 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:03 pm
    The Military have to follow the orders of the Commander-In-Chief. Or they can mutiny

    Not correct, the Military take an oath uphold the Constitution, in Trumps presidency the top brass ignored his directions … the question is would they do the same again

    Trump took an oath to uphold the Constitution too. Meant bupkis to him. He incited an Insurrection.

    Nevertheless, would it not be the case that, after pledging to uphold the Constitution, soldiers next duty is to obey orders? So, is upholding the Constitution what takes precedence? And, if they do that and don’t follow orders, can they be court marshalled? I have a strong suspicion that Trump would command that (god forbid he is elected), and that would have a chilling effect on the rest of them. Who wants to spend years in a military prison?

  12. leftieBrawler:

“when it comes to entropy I can never be sure if it is infact a condescending tone or basic grammatical deficiencies”

    “… I infact applaud both Asha and Entropy for the desire and willingness to both learn and engage …”


    Being schooled in grammar by someone who writes ‘in fact’ as one word? Priceless!

  13. leftieBrawler @ #1323 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 11:12 pm

    Correct weight regarding P1 Asha,

    It was only just a couple of weeks ago that P1 was reminiscing back to the times when the sydney eastern suburbs train line from central to Bondi Junction was opened- In 1979.

    But to underestimate her would be a strategic mistake.

    Good Christ. I come back in the morning to find this nonsense. Are you still hallucinating?

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