Tasmanian election minus eight days

Another poll from Tasmania suggesting the Liberals are set to retain government without recovering their majority.

With just over a week to go, the only new item of polling to emerge for the Tasmanian state election over the past week has been a uComms poll for the Australia Institute. The results are distinctly poor for Labor, who are credited with just 23.0% of the vote (compared with 28.2% in 2021) and broadly in line with other polling in having the Liberals on 37.1% (48.7%). The Greens are 13.7% (12.4%), with the major parties’ losses mostly absorbed by the Jacqui Lambie Network (who are only running in four of the five divisions) on 8.5%, a generic independent category on 12.8% and “others” on 5.0%. The poll was conducted early last week, on Monday and Tuesday, from a sample of 1174.

For a good deal more on the Tasmanian election, you can listen below to a discussion earliest this week between myself and Ben Raue of The Tally Room on the latter’s podcast. Notably with respect to the poll numbers just described, subjects canvassed include the tendency for generic independent categories to catch voters who drift back to the established parties upon discovering that none of the specific independents in their electorates catch their interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

35 comments on “Tasmanian election minus eight days”

  1. The only interest for me is how well the Lambie party will do, otherwise it looks like a status quo result. Rockliffe won’t get a majority, but nevertheless he will be able to come up with a minority government. Tasmanian Labor are a basketcasr,if running Rebecca White as leader for the 3rd time is the best they can do, they really do have major structural problems.

  2. I’d push back on this narrative that Tas Labor are a basket case.

    Yes they had some leadership issues whilst in opposition. But from my view that is behind them, in addition they have only 10 sitting members to draw upon, that instantly closes down a bunch of choices.

    The Tally Room podcast does a good job of unpacking the electoral factors that will imped Labor in Tasmania, particularly in the north. They have the key issue in that they will almost always need to form a multi party government, which usually goes through the Greens. The Greens are electoral poison in the north, so a vicious cycle whereby Labor keeps getting punished in the north. The JLN entry into the state may break this cycle.

  3. Going way down in the weeds now.

    I’ve been discussing if the seats of Franklin and Clark require a redistribution. As I understand it, Franklin is the only non-contiguous seat in the country. The NE side of the seat is on what we call the Eastern Shore, about a third of Hobart lives there, but just like in Sydney and Brisbane the river creates a cultural divide between either sides. This also makes it hard to campaign as candidates might have almost zero name recognition at either end of the seat.

    Looking at the Labor intra-partly results mentioned on the Tally Room page, https://www.tallyroom.com.au/55253, it is starkly apparent that different candidates poll extremely differently depending on where their personal voter base live.

    This may mean that Kasper Deane, who many thought might get the second Labor seat in Franklin, is actually at risk of not getting across the line due to Dean Winter’s strong base. Deane is a councilor in the LGA where Winter polled so well. This may be good news for Labor candidate Meg Brown, who has a strong name recognition on the Eastern Shore.

    If a redistribution did occur then absorbing the Eastern Shore into Clark, might see the south of Clark absorbed into Franklin. This might turn Franklin blue as the south of the current seat of Clark is quite heavily wealthier Liberal voters. It might also see Clark turn red as more Labor voters are picked up in the redistribution from the Eastern Shore.

  4. I wish the pollsters well in doing anything other than predicting broad trends. Which candidates from what party might get up is anyone’s guess. It will be fascinating to see how Eric Abetz goes in Franklin.

    The only certainty is that neither major party will get a simple majority of seats. I think that would require one party to get four seats in three electorates and three in the other two. IM-possible! With seven seats in each electorate and only about 12% required to win a seat, the balance of power will inevitably be held by JLN, Greens and maybe some other odds&sods.

    Minority government will go to the party best able to gather support from these minors.

    Certainly, advertising is pretty much up to each individual candidate. In my electorate (Bass), Michael Ferguson (Lib) and Janie Dickenson (Lab) seem to have lots of money for ads. JLN is also spending big and Jacqui herself is everywhere. Like or dislike for a big, new footy stadium in Hobart – and its potential drain on health funding – seems to be a big issue in The North.

    And I wish the AEC well in its advertising campaign to get voters to number at least seven boxes. There will need to be some pretty clear signs in the booths.

  5. MI. Franklin has been the way it is for a long time. And I think Kaspar Deane remains a strong chance given the relatively low profile of the other Labor candidates. The next strongest is arguably Thorpe, who is also from the western side of the electorate.

    Sub-regionalism is a fact of life in Tassie politics: ask any candidate in Lyons, which arguably has at least six sub-regions. And Braddon has at least four.

  6. I think the best thing to come from this election is Rebecca White will finally call it quits. She has been utterly hopeless.
    Labor can spend the next four years searching for some relevance.
    Dean Winter is their best chance.

  8. Disappointing that new parties such as The Local network do not get a mention anywhere that I can see. Having almost no funds means they rely on discussion sites like this to get attention. The model they use is interesting and worthy of review.

  9. Minor podcast correction: Hickey was Lord Mayor of Hobart not Deputy.

    Re Elliot she had for a long time been not a party member but recently joined the Liberals in the leadup to the election then quit over their policy of allowing pets in rentals.

    Re Local Network: in Tasmania it’s easy for independents to run with their own column so having parties of “independents” like in ACT is not necessary. I think they’re dishonest in claiming their candidates to be independents when any MP elected for them will be reliant on a party structure that has certain issue positions for re-endorsement. I also think they’re a generally pointless party fishing in the same pond as the Greens except with a “citizen’s juries” tweak that just results in people who like to sit in waffle sessions having too much influence on the state.

  10. No wonder Labor so far behind in the polls, saying “if the Libs haven’t fixed it in 10 years they never will” isn’t very clever. With 10% more Tasmanians employed in the last 10 years and the economy going from worst performance in the country to the best, many realise that the deficiencies in housing and health are a result of the Labor/Greens disaster of 2010. Only a Liberal Government can keep the State going in the right direction and have any chance of growing the economy so there is more money for health and housing

  12. Here we were drifting into a nothing election which everyone deemed would end in a hung parliament. Then Premier Rockliff goes out and throws a swift one two at democracy’s head. His idea of having members kicked out of parliament if they leave a party has more holes in it than a holey thing. What happens if someone wanted to leave a party and join his? Or an independent who joins a party?

    Dr Bonham points out quite rightly that if the idea was passed then the right flank of the Liberal party could kick out Premier Rockliff without any real concerns, because if he left the party he’d forfeit his own seat. I could foresee an outcome whereby if the right flank of the Liberal party gained the reins of power within the party they could keep demoting moderate members, who if they left the party would lose their seat and thereby promoting someone on the ticket who didn’t get elected but was aligned with the the far right.

    It’s too late to know if this’ll have any impact on voting intentions, but the Mercury BTL comments hit 300 this morning, I think the most on any story in this election campaign, mostly against the idea (perhaps meaningless as a story on Mick Malthouse saying Tasmanian doesn’t need a new stadium hit 500+ comments). Who might benefit if voters abandoned the Liberal party? Probably not Labor, possibly the front running independents or the JLN.

    I think the idea is probably moot as it’s unlikely to get the required super majority in both houses. So the question has to be asked, has Premier Rockliff fatally misread the electorate’s view on this or is it a master stroke?

    The Mercury https://archive.md/ZQsVN

  13. There is no required super majority. The Tasmanian Constitution Act can be amended by simple majority of both Houses. But Labor are opposed to this so it looks like it will be DOA in the Legislative Council. The sole exception to this is the term length provision which requires a two-thirds majority, but that provision is only single-entrenched so could be removed by simple majority.

  14. At least Rockliff’s proposal provides some extra interest in what has become an extremely dull election.

    I have been out and about over the last few days, visiting four out of five electorates (all but Braddon). On the measure of visible corflutes, the Libs are way ahead in Bass and Lyons : especially Howlett, who would be rivalling Kim Jong Un for how often her constituents would be encountering her far more attractive visage. I’d say the two parties are about even in Clarke. I’d put Labor slightly ahead in Franklin.

    Like last election, the Greens have relatively few corflutes about the place: I saw one in Lyons and none at all in Bass). Not a good sign for them I reckon. JLN are doing a little better.

    I chatted to a few locals in pubs on my journey. The consensus. Pretty much nobody gives a stuff and very few are at all likely to change their vote from last time.

    I reckon the Libs are a bit closer to retaining their majority than the polls are suggesting. They’ll probably only get to 17, but methinks 18 wouldn’t be totally out of reach.

  15. PS. Tucker has a lot of corflutes up in Lyons, which show him sporting a Bob Katter-style hat. He’s going for the farmers’ vote, but I suspect they’re pretty solid for the Libs.

  16. I’ve been in Bass twice this campaign, Lyons just up and down the highway, I live in Clark, have also been in Franklin but only at the start. In Bass I’ve seen some Greens signs but not that many, a modest number for Alexander, few for other indies. I stayed in Legana and that place has a ton of Ferguson and a fair amount of Sladden but also a fair few for Finlay. Outside the bible belt there are a lot of Fairs signs. It’s never very reliable as an indicator, eg federal 2016 the Liberals totally won the sign wars in the paddocks of the midlands but land doesn’t vote. Hickey is making a big campaign effort in Clark while Johnston to my eyes less so. Elliot was endorsed by the Australian Christian Lobby despite being a pro-VAD atheist.

  17. 538 did a piece on yard signs. Their conclusion; it’s not a very good method of predicting winners in an election.

    But…

    I’m in Franklin, in the satellite suburbs of Kingborough LGA Labor v Liberals is pretty similar until you get down to the richer Kingston Beach and Blackmans Bay, at which point Labor nearly disappears and then its a balance between Greens and Liberal. Then the Tesla index also goes up.

    Which gets at many of the arguments made on the main blog daily that the Greens are now a party of the wealthy and that their policies reflect this group.

  18. I note with interest that candidate names will be listed alphabetically by party grouping on the ballots. So in Franklin Eric Abetz will be first in the Liberal group, while the two sitting members (Nic Street and Dean Young) will be sixth and seventh.

    With so many candidates, it will be very tempting to donkey vote within one’s favoured party grouping.

    Onya, Eric. Could be a champion yet.

    And the three JLN candidates are Callaghan, Hallahan and Hannan. That’s almost poetic. Well done Jacqui.

  19. MI: “Which gets at many of the arguments made on the main blog daily that the Greens are now a party of the wealthy and that their policies reflect this group.”

    Yes, of course most Greens voters over the age of 30 tend to belong to the middle and upper middle classes, who are undoubtedly better off than many, but would probably baulk at being described as “wealthy.”

    The Tassie Greens are more environmentalist and less concerned with classic far left issues like Palestine than are those on the mainland nowadays. I would say that the policies of the Greens in reflect the views of people with a university education.

    Apart from the super wealthy, I’m not really sure what people mean by “wealthy” in Australian nowadays. Many tradies and unionised workers with access to lots of highly-paid overtime take home much higher levels of total remuneration than do many educators and white collar workers. I tend to use the term “educated elite” as I think it captures the group we are talking about better than levels of income and personal wealth.

  20. KB: “I’ve been in Bass twice this campaign, Lyons just up and down the highway, I live in Clark, have also been in Franklin but only at the start. In Bass I’ve seen some Greens signs but not that many, a modest number for Alexander, few for other indies. I stayed in Legana and that place has a ton of Ferguson and a fair amount of Sladden but also a fair few for Finlay. Outside the bible belt there are a lot of Fairs signs. It’s never very reliable as an indicator, eg federal 2016 the Liberals totally won the sign wars in the paddocks of the midlands but land doesn’t vote. Hickey is making a big campaign effort in Clark while Johnston to my eyes less so. Elliot was endorsed by the Australian Christian Lobby despite being a pro-VAD atheist.”
    ——————————————————
    I too saw a lot of signs for Fairs, who I assume will have a really good shot at getting in (as media people tend to do in Tassie when they run for Parliament). Sarah Quaile also had a lot of corflutes and, as you said, so did Ferguson. (Where is the bible belt in Launnie anyway?) I must have driven on different roads to you because I don’t recall seeing any for Sladden.

    For Labor in Bass, I mainly saw Finlay and Will Gordon, with a few for O’Byrne (who presumably hasn’t got much to worry about).

    In Lyons, all the Labor candidates other than Batt have done quite well in getting their corflutes up. And, apart from the huge effort of by Howlett’s team, Richard Hallett (who is a farmer) also had a lots of signs up on farm gates. As you say, lots of signs on farms doesn’t equate to lots of votes, although I do think it is interesting that Tucker doesn’t seem to have persuaded too many farmers to put up his corflutes: most of the Tucker signs I saw were in the towns. Doesn’t bode well for him I reckon.

    I agree with you that Johnston does not seem to have been campaigning very hard at all. I would have thought she would be a little vulnerable: she hasn’t done all that much in the last 3 years and my impression is that there is still a lot of love for David O’Byrne among the Labor faithful in the northern suburbs and many would be inclined to blame her personally for his demise. So it is possible that quite a few Labor voters who put her high on their ballot papers last time might be putting her at the bottom this time.

  22. Luigi Smith @ #18 Monday, March 18th, 2024 – 6:48 pm

    I note with interest that candidate names will be listed alphabetically by party grouping on the ballots. So in Franklin Eric Abetz will be first in the Liberal group, while the two sitting members (Nic Street and Dean Young) will be sixth and seventh.

    With so many candidates, it will be very tempting to donkey vote within one’s favoured party grouping.

    Onya, Eric. Could be a champion yet.

    And the three JLN candidates are Callaghan, Hallahan and Hannan. That’s almost poetic. Well done Jacqui.

    As I understand it Tasmania uses the Robson Rotation scheme so no one candidate gets an advantage. I.e. it’s pretty much random for each voter. There’s also no how to vote cards allowed, no campaigning outside booths, limits to road side signage.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robson_Rotation

    Here’s a discussion paper on it

    https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/Robson_Rotation_Paper.pdf

  23. Thank you, Mostly Interested. That reassures me. 🙂

    I lose sleep at night thinking that Eric Abetz might become Premier.

  24. Luigi Smith: “I lose sleep at night thinking that Eric Abetz might become Premier.”

    It’s a reasonable fear as I believe there’s a reasonably strong chance that Abetz will be elected, along with Street (who is definitely not an Abetz supporter) and Jacqui Petrusma (whom I assume would be). In that scenario, Dean Young – who is a non-entity compared to the three I’ve listed – would miss out. Indeed, he might not even come in fourth, as Antolli has quite a strong profile as well. Robson rotation and the absence of HTV cards helps candidates whose names are already known to voters.

    And, if Abetz does end up getting elected, well….

    Most AFL players who downscale from the big league to playing for a country team expect to be made captain-coach. It’s hard to believe that Abetz hasn’t got ambitions to become Premier and to use the power he would gain there to return the Tassie Liberal Party to the way it was back in the good old days of Robin Gray.

    So be afraid, be very afraid…

  26. Mundo on Fri at 8.41 am

    Have you caught up with Dr Bonham on gaffes? Quantity still disappointing but quality is increasing:

    ‘Probably the best zinger of the campaign: Dean Winter for “Even spuds are deserting the so-called spud farmer” on news that Peter Dutton would not be joining Jeremy Rockliff’s campaign. Harsh!

    * Rebecca White emailed policy details to three members of the ALP frontbench and apparently somehow included Liberal Speaker Mark Shelton on the distribution list. Of all the policies to leak in such a manner it was … the cybersecurity policy.

    * The Examiner published an election prediction by veteran commentator Barry Prismall that among other lesser implausibles had eight candidates (3 Lib, 3 ALP, 1 JLN and Tucker) winning in Lyons.’

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/02/2024-tasmanian-state-election-guide.html

  28. Bible belt in Bass is Riverside, Legana and northern Trevallyn (southern Trevallyn is green left). Some of the booths round there were BTL Eric central at the 2022 Senate election where he lost his seat, even more so than the booths around his home base in Kingborough. They nearly did in Bridget Archer by preferencing Labor ahead of her following a Christian Lobby campaign.

  29. Thanks for that. The only part of that region with which I am familiar is the Trevallyn shopping centre: which I suspect is encountered by a high proportion of first-time visitors to Launceston (and even regular visitors like me, who are inclined to forget which way to go) when they take a wrong turn while looking for Cataract Gorge. There’s a nice cafe and deli and generally a green left sort of feel to the place.

  31. Jacqui’s direct response. Positioning? I see open air bargaining happening in real time. If the Sky News poll is right and Labor don’t pick up any seats then they’re cooked. But poll averages is a thing so we’ll see in 48 hrs

    https://archive.is/2024.03.21-035503/https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/senator-jacqui-lambie-has-lashed-the-liberals-tactics-ahead-of-the-state-election/news-story/7832cb08ea5957179e87ddab6960bc10?amp&nk=b3fccda19f25d14d75327957f1ed4bc2-1710993321

  33. MI: “If the Sky News poll is right and Labor don’t pick up any seats then they’re cooked. ”

    As I posted on the other thread, that might not be the case.

    Imagine a scenario in which Labor gets 11, the Greens 3, the JLN 2, and O’Byrne and Johnston are both returned. That gives us 17 Lib reps and 16 reps who are unlikely to want to form a coalition with the Libs (although Johnston is arguably an outside chance) and 2 JLN who could go either way.

    It will then all depend on which major party Jacqui thinks joining with would be the worst for her brand. She could perhaps go with the line “I’ll support the party which won the most votes/seats.” But, otherwise, I reckon that, as a self-styled representative of the “battlers”, she would potentially lose more support by backing the Libs than by backing Labor. But there probably isn’t much in it.

    Now, if you substitute the above scenario with one in which Hickey gets elected and Johnston misses out (and Johnston has run an unbelievably low key campaign), then the situation gets even more complext. Hickey would probably be prepared to provide the Libs with their missing vote, but at a price. Jacqui would greatly prefer that scenario as it allows her to maintain her “plague on both your houses” image. But the Libs would far prefer to deal with Jacqui than with Hickey, whom they deeply hate.

    The campaign has been dead dull, but the aftermath is going to be gripping stuff, I reckon.

  34. If the best Labor can win is 9 or 10 seats out of 35, then Rebecca White surely has to resign for good, and they hand the baton over to Dean Winter.
    Will JLN really win as many as 4 seats? Time will tell.

  35. I’m more inclined to go with what Dr Bonham is saying. I’m on the fly so cant post his numbers , but I think 15 Lib/3 JLN plus Hickey as speaker makes some sense.

    What I’d also say is Jacqui’s loud shouting is her normal negotiation stance before she agrees to the opposite thing she is shouting about.

    So odds on a Lib/JLN government are pretty short I reckon.

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