The fortnightly Essential Research poll finds Labor recovering the lead on its 2PP+ measure after losing it for the first time in the previous poll, albeit just barely. The primary votes, which include a 5% undecided component (up one), have Labor up two to 32%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down two to 11% and One Nation up one to 8%, while Labor’s 48-47 lead on 2PP+ (likewise with 5% undecided) reverses the result from last time.
Further questions focus on foreign policy, with a three-choice question on “Australia’s role in global affairs” finding 20% opting for “primarily an ally of the US”, 38% for “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” and 25% for “Australia should do its best not to engage in world affairs”. On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 18% felt Israel justified in its present course with a further 20% saying it should agree to a temporary ceasefire, while 37% felt it should permanently withdraw. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1216.
After a Labor blowout in the last poll, the weekly Roy Morgan has its two-party lead in from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down two), Coalition 38% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 4% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1714.
The date of the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook has been set at April 13, with nominations to be declared on March 22. Labor is yet to formally determine if it will field a candidate, but has offered public indications that it is unlikely to.
“Further questions focus on foreign policy, with a three-choice question on “Australia’s role in global affairs” finding 20% opting for “primarily an ally of the US”, 38% for “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” and 25% for “Australia should do its best not to engage in world affairs”.”
========================
BW was pretty much articulating the 38% “independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” view yesterday. I agree with that view. The US is, perhaps unfairly to themselves, projecting a strong impression of being quite one-sided in its view of alliance obligations. If it weren’t for the resurgent MAGA movement, maybe it wouldn’t be projecting that impression nearly as much. But given the current reality of Moscow Mike sabotaging US assistance to Ukraine, and the very real prospect of a dictator-friendly Trump returning to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year, it is only rational for liberal democracies elsewhere (like us) to plan forward on the assumption of no military help from Uncle Sam. I’m with the 38%.
“China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, will visit Australia for the first time in seven years, with next week’s trip being locked in just hours after Beijing offered a reprieve to Australian winemakers.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/14/chinese-foreign-ministers-visit-to-australia-locked-in-hours-after-beijing-signals-wine-tariff-lift
My dream for how we approach the growing ascendancy of China: we make ourselves economically very fruitful for China to trade with; and we make ourselves militarily very expensive for China to threaten. And, we talk with them as mutually respectful grown-ups in the room. I’d say we should also keep finding ways to remind them we’re aware of and oppose their human rights abuses against Uighurs, Tibetans and dissidents, but we’ve kind of shot ourselves in the foot with our own indigenous relations.
The US House of Representatives has passed a radical bill that would ban TikTok, the widely popular social media app used regularly by around a third of Americans, within six months unless its Chinese parent company ByteDance sells it to non-Chinese owners.
The bill, which faces an uncertain path in the Senate, passed overwhelmingly in the Republican-controlled lower house of congress by 352 to 65 despite opposition from Donald Trump, who once proposed a ban himself as president in 2020.
China’s foreign ministry quickly slammed the bill, deepening an ongoing feud between Washington and Beijing over trade, intellectual property and national security, as “an act of bullying”.
TikTok, which would fetch several hundred billion of US dollars on the open market, has been within US regulatory crosshairs for years amid concern the Chinese Communist Party could compel ByteDance to pass on information on US users or tweak the application’s algorithm to subtly affect American opinion.
Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher, one of the champions of the bill, said on the floor of the House that the landmark bill would “force TikTok to break up with the Chinese Communist Party”. “This is a commonsense measure to protect our national security,” he said.
From previous thread;
Any analysis of the Vatican’s relationship with Nazi Germany must consider Mit Brennender Sorge “With Burning Anxiety”, Pius XI’s (but written by Pius XII) 1937 condemnation of the Nazi state. To quote Wikipedia (too early in the morning to find something more serious)
The encyclical condemned “pantheistic confusion”, “neopaganism”, “the so-called myth of race and blood”, and the idolizing of the State.
This was published with great difficulty in German and lead to increasing suppression of the church. The papacy risked increasing suppression with any act of resistance
“… why didn’t [Pope Francis] call on Russia to surrender and withdraw when its first attempt to subjugate Ukraine failed and Ukraine recaptured about half of the territory it lost in the first few weeks of the invasion? When the pope talks of Ukraine raising the white flag [with its present battlefield reverses] while making no mention whatsoever of Russia [during its battlefield reverses], what he’s actually doing is perversely blaming Ukraine (and the west) for provoking Russia into war (for instance, by aspiring to enter NATO), totally neglecting the imperial ambitions that drove the Kremlin to invade Ukraine…
… The war’s present dynamic, and particularly Ukraine’s problems on the frontline, stems from the fact that the western military-industrial complex, reviled by the pope, has done too little, not too much. Rather than the west’s defence industry fuelling war, Ukraine’s recent losses are due to a lack of manpower and especially a lack of weapons to fend off Russia’s invasion…
… the pope assumes that a Ukrainian surrender would put an end to the war, presumably via a deal allowing Russia to retain control of the five Ukrainian regions it has annexed illegally, and perhaps a few more (like Odesa). These are the kind of terms Donald Trump would probably also like to see. Of course, no one has a crystal ball. Yet if Putin’s past behaviour is any indication, there’s no evidence whatsoever to suggest this would represent a steady state ending the war. What the pope chooses to forget is that this is not the first war that Putin has waged in Europe, beginning with Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Every time the west sidelined and played down the Russian threat, Moscow came back to bite off a bigger piece.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/13/pope-francis-ukraine-russia-war-surrender
I was speaking to some Labor people from the electorate of Cook the other night at Parliament House and they informed me that there was a pressure campaign from the branches on the PM and head office to have Labor run a candidate in the Cook by-election. They said Simon Earle was keen to run again.
I think this is the ideal opportunity for Labor to make gains there.
This is an article in The New York Times by Nate Cohn that analyses who and where Nikki Haley voters are and how they might make a difference to the US Presidential election in November. I’ve made it free to read:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/upshot/nikki-haley-biden-2024.html?unlocked_article_code=1.cU0.AlCl.86s2JHmYb2hn&smid=url-share
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Falsehoods designed to win votes in election campaigns would be outlawed under a Labor push for tough new penalties to weed out political lies, writes Paul Sakkal. Senior government sources confirmed the Albanese government will seek to legislate “truth in advertising” laws in its upcoming suite of electoral reforms on which opposition MPs will imminently be briefed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-campaign-lies-to-be-outlawed-if-they-re-definitely-lies-20240313-p5fbzy.html
Dutton’s blast of radioactive rhetoric on nuclear power leaves facts in the dust, opines Graham Readfearn who says the Coalition’s claim of cheap power and quickly built reactors is at odds with real world experience of other countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/peter-dutton-nuclear-power-comments-csiro-small-modular-reactors
The Albanese government’s planned changes to rules governing political donations are long-overdue reforms that should introduce more transparency into the murky world of political access and influence, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/reforms-to-political-donations-laws-long-overdue-20240312-p5fbq6.html
The rivers of gold from high commodity prices and a strong job market have beefed up the budget. But Jim Chalmers says the rivers are starting to run dry, reports Shane Wright who says that in a speech to be delivered to the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia today, the Teasurer will also caution ministers with big spending agendas that he plans to save most of any extra revenue that flows into the government’s coffers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-revenue-surprises-for-you-ministers-chalmers-20240313-p5fc02.html
When we should be debating either broadening or raising the GST, we are instead discussing whether taxpayers should continue subsidising Australia’s richest state, writes Michael Read.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-real-travesty-of-the-wa-gst-deal-20240313-p5fc1z
“Where else in Australia but Tasmania would we have an election campaign where the hot topics include the erection of the largest chocolate fountain in the southern hemisphere, possibly the world, and the construction of a footy ground?”, asks Jack the Insider.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/from-chocolate-to-circuses-tassie-politics-never-fails-to-deliver/news-story/fecce0db59381392b1b57cff3d4e61b1?amp=
“With the next federal election as soon as late this year, what would minority government mean for the broader labour movement?”, wonders Shaun Carney moving into the realm of the hypothetical.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-monday-after-the-next-federal-election-does-albanese-call-bandt-20240313-p5fc4f.html
If we can’t get nuclear submarines, and American decisions now make that extremely problematic at best, can we at least get the smart drones that make big modern navies vulnerable, as the Houthis in Yemen have shown and as the Ukrainians have shown against the Russians? The answer seems to be no. We’re on track right now to have neither submarines nor drones, nor much of anything else, lament Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/time-for-anthony-albanese-call-in-smart-drones-to-close-aukus-submarine-gap/news-story/a9e5a7ee5da911a5e3133e1c21e1cf89
The ABC is always in the news, this year introducing a new chairman, Kim Williams, and going to court over pulling off the air a part-time announcer, Antoinette Lattouf. Lee Duffield, a veteran of ABC journalism, says the chairman and management have a battery of crisis management tools, but they must also manage change — never easy.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/abc-in-2024-facing-the-challenge-of-change-management,18417
The Guardian reveals that the Australian government knew an obscure online retailer had no experience importing PPE prior to handing it $100m and receiving 46m unusable masks at a critical point during the pandemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/14/australian-government-covid-masks-unusable-australian-business-mobiles
The ACT’s former top prosecutor is calling for the ACT government to redact parts of a scathing report, recently found by a court to have been affected by apprehended bias. Shane Drumgold SC has also claimed “extensive” media reporting on findings critical of his conduct, before he had seen the document himself, forced him to resign early.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8553817/shane-drumgold-calls-for-redactions-in-sofronoff-report/?cs=14329
The ‘good old days’ for housing affordability were just four years ago, writes Greg Jericho who tells us why. He does say, though, that the good old days of 2020 are good only relative to now, and that’s a rather horrific thought.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2024/mar/14/australia-housing-price-figures-real-estate-market-affordability
Alan Kohler writes about long Covid’s devastating and glorious effect on the cost of housing. It’s the economic long Covid that he homes in on.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/03/14/alan-kohler-long-covid-housing
Alexandra Smith and Michael McGowan write about yesterday’s introduction to NSW parliament of the bill to ban gay conversion practices. Let’s hope it gets through.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/matt-met-40-friends-through-gay-conversion-therapy-only-six-survived-20240313-p5fc6u.html
To drive fairness, Sydney’s road tolling reform must start now, declares Roads Minister, John Graham.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/to-drive-fairness-sydney-s-road-tolling-reform-must-start-now-20240313-p5fc14.html
The reported suicide of Boeing whistleblower John Barnett in Charleston, South Carolina (US), is a reminder of the need for reform in Australia. Lendlease whistleblower Tony Watson proposes a Whistleblower Authority.
https://michaelwest.com.au/lendlease-whistleblower-calls-for-whistleblower-authority/
Bloomberg explains why TikTok is facing a ban in the United States.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/why-tiktok-is-facing-a-ban-in-the-united-states-20240313-p5fc64.html
It’s Thursday and time for a wide-ranging anti-woke contribution from Peta Credlin.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/country-built-on-grit-and-hard-work-goes-into-meltdown/news-story/de950149c2e9aff04c50d81c1f395100?amp=
A Japanese company’s goal to be the first in the country to put a satellite in orbit and offer “space courier services” ended in spectacular fashion when its solid-fuelled rocket exploded shortly after launch yesterday. Another “unscheduled rapid disassembly”!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/japan-s-space-one-kairos-rocket-explodes-on-inaugural-flight-20240313-p5fc54.html
President Xi Jinping has spent the past decade building the Chinese state around him and this week formally removed his final obstacle: the power of the State Council, explains Eryk Bagshaw.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi-extinguishes-separation-of-powers-fuses-the-party-with-the-state-20240312-p5fbxh.html
With “nauseous optimism”, Robert Reich writes about his feelings on this year’s presidential election.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/13/presidential-election-us-global-consequences-optimism
The Georgia judge overseeing the election-interference case against Donald Trump and 14 defendants dismissed six of the charges in the wide-ranging indictment yesterday, saying they were not detailed enough. One of the 41 charges Trump and some of the co-defendants in the case were charged with was soliciting officials in Georgia to violate their oath of office. Those charges were dismissed. The other charges in the case against Trump and other defendants remain.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/13/trump-georgia-case-charges-dismissed
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Mark David
Andrew Dyson
Matt Golding
Geoff Pryor
https://johnmenadue.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/flying-pigs.jpeg
Dionne Gain
John Shakespeare
Cathy Wilcox
Mark Knight
Effing Spooner
From the US
If you would like to read about the nuts and bolts of the sale of TikTok in the US I have made this article from The New York Times free to read:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/technology/tiktok-ban-sale-china.html?unlocked_article_code=1.cU0.x5_H.E5jxsn8H8gXt&smid=url-share
Things are looking much dicier for the TikTok sale bill in the Senate, so it’s no sure thing to pass.
China is going backwards and the great decoupling is on.
In Britain today it was announced no foreign government will be allowed to own local media.
Appeasing dictatorships like China like the fed labor gov does is a mistake.
The Pandemic showed Chinas hand and investment into the country by naive western governments has dried up.
Tik tok should be shut down.Disturbing development overnight in China as above article shows.
The globalised world before the pandemic will look different.
A gutless backdown by labor to withdraw the appeal to the WTO.Showed a dictatorship Australia is weak.
Here’s David Pope late out of the box.
‘Pied Piper. says:
Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 7:18 am
China is going backwards and the great decoupling is on.
In Britain today it was announced no foreign government will be allowed to own local media.
Appeasing dictatorships like China like the fed labor gov does is a mistake.
The Pandemic showed Chinas hand and investment into the country by naive western governments has dried up.
Tik tok should be shut down.Disturbing development overnight in China as above article shows.
The globalised world before the pandemic will look different.
A gutless backdown by labor to withdraw the appeal to the WTO.Showed a dictatorship Australia is weak.’
———————-
The barley and wine decisions are victories for the Australian Government.
Both represent back downs by China in the face of adverse WTO decisions.
Both these victories have their genesis in Morrison Government action to take the Chinese trade punishments to the WTO. The simple fact of the matter is that Xi* does not want the loss of face involved in a WTO decision loss.
The immediate visit by China’s trade minister reflects further weakness on the China side.
Despite their fiddling with the numbers, it is quite obvious that China’s trade-exposed economy is hurting.
*It is all Xi, now, is it not? He is omnipotent – Trump’s vision statement.
Hmm weakness by labor not good.A back down to a dictatorship cannot be spun.
Giving a victory to China just because its dictator did not want to lose face is gutless.
No victory in bans being lifted that should never been imposed in the first place.
It rewards Chinas behaviour it’s typical of a weak prime minister and an appeasing federal labor government.
Yet another reason they are struggling in the polls as the public in Australia does not trust the dictatorship .
A sellout is a sellout human rights and democracy are important labor.
Restrictions on Chinese student numbers and tourists into Australia also need to occur.
A backdown to a dictatorship cannot be spun
You’re giving it your best shot, pied pipsqueak. 😐
I agree with Robert Reich’s carefully considered assessment:
Unsurprisingly, these trends have ignited a backlash – especially among Americans who are older, whiter, straighter, without college degrees, and male. These Americans have become susceptible to an authoritarian strongman peddling conspiracy theories and stoking hatred.
Trump Republicans want us to be discouraged. They want us to despair. That’s part of their strategy. They figure that if we’re pessimistic enough, we won’t even fight – and they’ll win everything.
But I believe their backlash is doomed. The Republican party has become a regressive cesspool, headed by increasingly unmoored people who are utterly out of touch with the dominant and emerging values of America. And most Americans are catching on.
I don’t mean to be a Pollyanna. We’re in the fight of our lives. It will demand a great deal of our energy, our time, and our courage. But this fight is critical and noble. It will set the course for America and the world for decades. And it is winnable.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/13/presidential-election-us-global-consequences-optimism
I note a headline at the ABC putting that the Opposition is strangely quiet re the Reporr into aged care funding, my emphasis on quiet
Well the question is who were the beneficiaries when the industry waa privatised and bed licences sold by the government – and how many who were gifted these bed licences were Liberal Party donors?
Santoro rings a bell
Why did his friend, Howard, cut him loose forcing Santoro to resign from the Senate?
What was that story again?
And were these licences also licences to make money – for the proprietors of said bed licences?
#weatheronPB
Dull translucent clouds,
hang like smoke across the sky.
Cool, hazy, fading.
Haven’t heard if Dutton is going to come down and campaign for the Liberals in the Tasmanian state election. Not sure there’s a lot of nuclear love for him down here.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 6:54 am
I was speaking to some Labor people from the electorate of Cook the other night at Parliament House and they informed me that there was a pressure campaign from the branches on the PM and head office to have Labor run a candidate in the Cook by-election.
_____________________
How quaint, but they are wasting thier time
ALP Head Office stopped listening to the branches years ago.
Thanks BK
For those who haven’t seen it
Yanis Varoufakis at the National Press Club yesterday
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2411C007S00
Revolutionary ratbag dropping truth bombs every where like Keating
“Colourful” as in the person wears Hawaiian shirts or as in “colourful racing identity”?
Sad news:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/man-in-hospital-with-life-threatening-injuries-another-still-trapped-after-mine-collapse-20240313-p5fc9q.html
“Far-right firebrand Geert Wilders has renounced his claim to become the next prime minister of the Netherlands.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/wilders-wont-be-next-netherlands-prime-minister-he-says/
And in regard China
Along with India, it has a population of 1.4 billion
Australia 27 million
That 1.4 billion represents 20% of the global population
These are people, who like us, consume
Hence the businesses which have a presence in China
Including Australian businesses not only in the retail and manufacture space but in procurement and logistics including compliance with Australian standards
And given these businesses have a presence in China, how can you then discriminate against China owned businesses trading globally?
Australia is currently feeling the loss of the China market, including tourism which has not recovered to past levels (noting the subsidies to tour in China, so some ultra cheap but class packages on offer)
People live in China
And in regard those people, they once revolted hence the political system they live under today
What the Chinese regime is aware of is that if their population finds living standards going backwards and citizens under pressure, they may revolt once again
Hence the manifesto lead is to improve the living standards of citizens – and there is the market for those who conduct their business also in China, competing with Chinese businesses
It is the way of the World
How many Nations and Regions number China as their largest trading PARTNER, starting with Australia?
And Tiawan
Noting the revolution in China was just 80 years ago, so just one life span compared to China history over how many life spans?
Plus, given the War rhetoric of some and the presence of USA military on its doorstep why wouldn’t China respond to protect its position?
As with Russia and NATO on its borders
This is not excusing anyone from being responsible and good neighbors as we see across our domestic neighbourhoods (largely!!)
It is merely saying this is the World we live in and attempt to survive in
China is a very significant Nation on the Global stage
ABC had a reporter Anne Connelly who specialised in aged care matters
Scott Morrison called media to Kirribilli to say “Here is the report into Aged Care”, he hadn’t read the report (surprise).
She asked a question about the findings, He responded “I am the Prime Minister”
Plenty of things ought to have been said in that report
1. tax people over age 65
2. permit access to assisted death instead of rot in nursing home
3. money raised must be spent on patients
4. set minimum nurse patient ratios
”I note a headline at the ABC putting that the Opposition is strangely quiet re the Reporr into aged care funding, my emphasis on quiet”
They might also be waiting to see the Government’s response so that they can oppose it, whatever it is.
citizen @ #22 Thursday, March 14th, 2024 – 8:29 am
For those without a subscription:
Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was out on the hustings in the Sutherland Shire on Tuesday, introducing locals to Simon Kennedy, the man set to replace Scott Morrison as the next Liberal member for Cook.
The Liberals hold the seat with a 12 per cent margin, and Labor’s disinterest in wasting money in the Shire means Kennedy’s campaign is more of a coronation. Which makes some of Dutton’s companion choices during his visit even more questionable.
CBD spotted Dutton deep in conversation with an old friend of this column Matt Daniel, a colourful property developer and Liberal party powerbroker in southern Sydney. For a quick catch-up, Daniel was sacked as Liverpool Council’s deputy general manager in 2013 for failing to declare he was an undischarged bankrupt.
He has since been a semi-regular guest at recent Independent Commission Against Corruption hearings – although no findings have been made against him. In 2021, he was named as a town planner who lobbied councils on behalf of the family of then-Drummoyne MP John Sidoti. Sidoti was later found to have engaged in corrupt conduct.
Daniel was also named in a separate inquiry a year earlier into Gladys Berejiklian’s disgraced ex-boyfriend Daryl Maguire, who’d helped Daniel lobby planning officials.
We asked Dutton’s office about this chance meeting, but didn’t hear back.
Also spotted on the Cook campaign trail was former lobbyist Scott Briggs, who’s finally resurfaced after this masthead revealed then-home affairs boss Mike Pezzullo had used him to exert influence over two prime ministers.
Macarthur @ #24 Thursday, March 14th, 2024 – 8:32 am
Yay! 😀
Not so yay! that he did it so a Far Right Wing Cabinet could be formed. 🙁
Also no Chinese investment in Australian property and elsewhere in Australia.
China can put bans in place so can Australia.
But labor prefers to appease.
What’s Chinas role in intel property theft labor? Hacking and spying labor?
Jailing Aust citizens labor?
They are not changing just because we are nice to them.They hate our way of life and try to undermine us every chance they get.
Ask the Phillipines whose fishermen at sea legally are having their boats blasted with Chinese water canons and the boat windows ets knocked out by the Chinese navy.
China does this because Australia,us etc let them.
Is here we go again a Chinese plant on here or what?
Chinese people hav3 no power.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Several interesting stories. The impending Chinese decision to relax wine tariffs is not only symbolic. Wine is SA’s biggest export, worth two to three billion $ per year, and a lot of grape growers are really struggling now. IT will be great news for the SA regional economy.
The Liberal / National indifference to Chinese tariff wars shows just how little they actually care about their once core constituency on farms and in regional towns these days. You would think some rural seats would be quite vulnerable to a Helen Haines type candidate.
Dutton has questions to answer about his asinine nuclear push: https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/03/13/dutton-nuclear-questions
Really, if the Coalition is serious, this completely trashes their reputation as good managers of the economy.
Tax people over 65
So the very same cohort which endured an upper marginal tax rate of 60 cents in the $1-
You tax income, not age brackets
And you can now pay to receive the quality of Aged Care you seek
Hence the differences between Aged Care facilities – and their cost (and services)
At a family wedding the other week, a couple in their 90’s attended (because it was their family member), they very well to do and now residing in a superior Aged Care facility which supported them at the service by way of transport and personnel – they in wheel chairs
Across life you get to live the life style you can afford, including by provisioning for when you leave the work force and no longer receive a wage
You get what you pay for – the concern being minimum standards
BK
“ Falsehoods designed to win votes in election campaigns would be outlawed under a Labor push for tough new penalties to weed out political lies, writes Paul Sakkal. Senior government sources confirmed the Albanese government will seek to legislate “truth in advertising” laws in its upcoming suite of electoral reforms on which opposition MPs will imminently be briefed.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-campaign-lies-to-be-outlawed-if-they-re-definitely-lies-20240313-p5fbzy.html
This would be great to see. Virtually the entire LNP energy and climate change policy now is a collection of complete lies about nuclear power (whether SMR or large reactors) and vehicles (non-existent Ute-taxes). The LNP will say anything now to save a single seat. We now know AUKUS was launched on a sea of lies, which shows that they can do real harm too.
Added bonus: the law might put Sky After Dark off air 🙂
Hmm Facebook in China where is it?
Massive restrictions on international investment and companies in China.
Constant intimidation by a dictatorship.
The wine industry was too lazy to diversify its product and pivot elsewhere.
Tariff war hey labor?
No war a Chinese decision to punish Australia and Australia holding its ground not selling out like the Labor government.Democracy is important labor not appeasement to a dictatorship that’s testing our strength.
Bring on the WTO appeal.
SNIP
Macarthur
Last night I read chapter “A1 – A New Science of History” published in the book “End Times” by Peter Turchin. Turchin is one of the originators of cliodynamics, which uses data and algorithms to predict large-scale social change. Though he is at pains to point out that prediction is not the end goal of his work, understanding is the end goal, so that disasters can be avoided. In part this is due to his ideological stance as a scientist. But in part it is a pragmatic choice forced by chaos theory, which strictly limits predictions. (Predictions of complex systems by themselves have little value.)
In chapter A1 he discusses the equations and parameters of war, how to predict its outcome. It’s a fascinating discussion algorithmically but also militarily and politically. The reason you might be interested is the US Civil War, which he uses as a well-known example for his US audience. The parallels between the relative imbalance of the South and North armies and the relative imbalance of Ukraine’s and Russia’s armies are striking. They include manpower (North had a 4 to 1 advantage), weapon quantity (North had the advantage), weapon superiority (minor), morale (South had the advantage).
The chapter concludes that a win for the North was inevitable. That’s not to say a win for Russia is inevitable. But it does put into context what Ukraine needs quantitatively in order to prevail against a much stronger foe. (Ukraine needs overwhelming superiority of weapons.) The equations he describes have been studied by military analysts for a century. Ukraine’s needs are precisely known.
My local library (Brisbane) carries the book. It is a 300 plus pages, fully indexed, scholarly thing. But you don’t have to read the entire book. (Once I got past the early background and definitions, I found it boring and repetitive.) But at least its first appendix is worth reading, if you can find a copy.
Good luck.
McAfee is too inexperienced to preside over a complex RICO trial.
He’s also up for re-election for a four-year time in May. I think he
can be expected to do what he can for Trump. And I think he erred in putting Willis & Wade through the wringer.
It would be great to see ridiculous claims such as this outlawed:
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/03/13/dutton-nuclear-questions
They know they’re lying. Especially referencing one of your fellow fabricators to reinforce your statement is Dodgy Politics 101.
Mavis, I dont know why people are so certain the judicial system will stand up to Trump. It is one of many institutions a democracy needs to survive. There is a reason there are many – you cant rely on just one. Judges are just people after all.
US democracy isnt a house of cards but as the structural elements are each stressed, some breaking, it does make the others less resilient – a collapse creates its own momentum.
C@tmomma @ Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 8:40 am:
“Not so yay! that he did it so a Far Right Wing Cabinet could be formed. ”
============
This has a lot longer to travel. In the meantime, at least Mark Rutte remains (caretaker) PM.
Mavis, is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine criminal?
On AUKUS, the Pope and David Rowe cartoons seem fairly apt. There is little outwardly visible sign AUKUS promises will be fulfilled. Australia under Scomo and Albo has put off any domestic construction of subs for ten years and USA is not picking up our slack.
No doubt some insiders will point to pillar two (which could have happened anyway without AUKUS) as proof of “success” or say there is inside information showing progress on subs that we can’t see . Maybe.
But AUKUS highlights a major risk with communication strategies in defence projects. After a string of defence procurement failures, and scandals like unreported alleged warcrimes in Afghanistan, the credibility of defence chiefs is deservedly low. So “just trust us” as a response to AUKUS questions doesn’t cut it. Promises of future jobs ring hollow if nobody believes the project will happen.
Who would commit their business’ capital to investing for contributing to SSN construction when there is no start date for local construction? Or why would anyone encourage their high school leaving child to sign up for four years of studying nuclear engineering, HECS cost $40K, when there may be no industry to work in when they finish?
If Labor concluded two yers ago that budget repair was more important and decided to go quiet on AUKUS until it died, Marles should have been given very different messaging directions.
Late Riser @ Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 9:01 am:
“Macarthur
Last night I read chapter “A1 – A New Science of History” published in the book “End Times” by Peter Turchin.”
============
LR, thank you. No luck on Internet Archive, but I’m not done searching yet.
”
Macarthursays:
Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 6:29 am
“Further questions focus on foreign policy, with a three-choice question on “Australia’s role in global affairs” finding 20% opting for “primarily an ally of the US”, 38% for “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” and 25% for “Australia should do its best not to engage in world affairs”.”
========================
BW was pretty much articulating the 38% “independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” view yesterday. I agree with that view. The US is, perhaps unfairly to themselves, projecting a strong impression of being quite one-sided in its view of alliance obligations. If it weren’t for the resurgent MAGA movement, maybe it wouldn’t be projecting that impression nearly as much. But given the current reality of Moscow Mike sabotaging US assistance to Ukraine, and the very real prospect of a dictator-friendly Trump returning to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year, it is only rational for liberal democracies elsewhere (like us) to plan forward on the assumption of no military help from Uncle Sam. I’m with the 38%.
”
So “all the way with LBJ” consists of 20%. I know, I know LBJ doesn’t live anymore. You know what I mean.
Just curious, how was there a measure for “all the way with LBJ” when he was POTUS? Just curious.
Thankyou here we go again you are a plant.
Democracy gives me my say in China people are killed for their opinions.
And labor appeases them!
Socrates says:
Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 9:15 am
If Labor concluded two yers ago that budget repair was more important and decided to go quiet on AUKUS until it died, Marles should have been given very different messaging directions.
_______
I am feeling cynical this (every) morning. What Marles “should” have done is different to what is politically advantageous. Is AUKUS for Labor what the NBN was for the Coalition? 😉
Here we go again @ #37 Thursday, March 14th, 2024 – 9:00 am
Regardless of the silliness of PP’s posts, is that really called for?