Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Essential Research continues to point to a close race, while Labor maintains a lead in Roy Morgan without matching last week’s result.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll finds Labor recovering the lead on its 2PP+ measure after losing it for the first time in the previous poll, albeit just barely. The primary votes, which include a 5% undecided component (up one), have Labor up two to 32%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down two to 11% and One Nation up one to 8%, while Labor’s 48-47 lead on 2PP+ (likewise with 5% undecided) reverses the result from last time.

Further questions focus on foreign policy, with a three-choice question on “Australia’s role in global affairs” finding 20% opting for “primarily an ally of the US”, 38% for “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” and 25% for “Australia should do its best not to engage in world affairs”. On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 18% felt Israel justified in its present course with a further 20% saying it should agree to a temporary ceasefire, while 37% felt it should permanently withdraw. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1216.

After a Labor blowout in the last poll, the weekly Roy Morgan has its two-party lead in from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down two), Coalition 38% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 4% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1714.

The date of the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook has been set at April 13, with nominations to be declared on March 22. Labor is yet to formally determine if it will field a candidate, but has offered public indications that it is unlikely to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,366 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:40 pm
    Entropy @ #1291 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:36 pm
    ================================================

    I was pointing out i had read it and that’s how i found out she came from NSW. Whether it was “condescending”? it was also a fact.

    Though i must admit, i did think your suggestion, i didn’t know how to google someones Wikipedia entry a little condescending too.

  2. ‘ true dat’ Mavis- that is of course everyone here except me who has no issues at all.

    speaking of Mr ‘true dat’ I wonder where he was flying to last night?

  3. leftieBrawlersays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:46 pm
    c@t when it comes to entropy I can never be sure if it is infact a condescending tone or basic grammatical deficiencies.
    =======================================================

    Not something one would confuse with this post. Which is purely condescending in fact.

  4. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at
    _____________________
    Jesus.
    Very well known in the Union movement.
    ……………………………………

    Was it the Loaves and Fishes Union?

  5. Entropy @ #1304 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:52 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:40 pm
    Entropy @ #1291 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:36 pm
    ================================================

    I was pointing out i had read it and that’s how i found out she came from NSW. Whether it was “condescending”? it was also a fact.

    Though i must admit, i did think your suggestion, i didn’t know how to google someones Wikipedia entry a little condescending too.

    Which was never my suggestion or contention, so stop making things up, Entropy. It does you no favours.

  6. nath @ #1302 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:49 pm

    Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:10 pm

    Yes, and I will continue to “carry on” as you say, opposing homophobia, misogyny and racial hatred despite the constant bitterness and tut-tutting from old white men

    __________
    those toxic white males again!

    So unlike old white women, who courageously fought against racism and homophobia for centuries! Opposed Slavery, fought for the Indigenous everywhere!

    Nasty nath is back.

  7. Confessions @ #1296 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:42 pm

    C@t:

    Same. I’m trying not to be so caught up in Trumpism. But the US media hasn’t learned the lessons of 2016 when they gave him near to blanket coverage. It’s so disappointing.

    Yes, I’ve just been made newly depressed by reading this (free for you to read):

    In the wake of the riot on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021, a groundswell built in Washington to rein in the onslaught of lies that had fueled the assault on the peaceful transfer of power.

    Social media companies suspended Donald J. Trump, then the president, and many of his allies from the platforms they had used to spread misinformation about his defeat and whip up the attempt to overturn it. The Biden administration, Democrats in Congress and even some Republicans sought to do more to hold the companies accountable. Academic researchers wrestled with how to strengthen efforts to monitor false posts.

    Mr. Trump and his allies embarked instead on a counteroffensive, a coordinated effort to block what they viewed as a dangerous effort to censor conservatives.

    They have unquestionably prevailed.

    Waged in the courts, in Congress and in the seething precincts of the internet, that effort has eviscerated attempts to shield elections from disinformation in the social media era. It tapped into — and then, critics say, twisted — the fierce debate over free speech and the government’s role in policing content.

    Projects that were once bipartisan, including one started by the Trump administration, have been recast as deep-state conspiracies to rig elections. Facing legal and political blowback, the Biden administration has largely abandoned moves that might be construed as stifling political speech.

    While little noticed by most Americans, the effort has helped cut a path for Mr. Trump’s attempt to recapture the presidency. Disinformation about elections is once again coursing through news feeds, aiding Mr. Trump as he fuels his comeback with falsehoods about the 2020 election.

    “The censorship cartel must be dismantled and destroyed, and it must happen immediately,” he thundered at the start of his 2024 campaign.

    The counteroffensive was led by former Trump aides and allies who had also pushed to overturn the 2020 election. They include Stephen Miller, the White House policy adviser; the attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana, both Republicans; and lawmakers in Congress like Representative Jim Jordan, Republican of Ohio, who since last year has led a House subcommittee to investigate what it calls “the weaponization of government.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/17/us/politics/trump-disinformation-2024-social-media.html?unlocked_article_code=1.dU0.QMEM.dn5UdEz1Pq_i&smid=url-share

    *sigh*

    They’re playing hard ball.

  8. So, no Newspoll tonight? That’s all I was hanging around for. I certainly don’t need to have my motives questioned and rearranged to suit others’ agendas.

  9. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 10:03 pm

    No, he’s not back. He’s essentially keeping this site honest. That you don’t comprehend the same is problematic for you. I’m off.


  10. FUBARsays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 8:25 pm
    Claiming Trump will become a dictator is just stupid. The same applies for Dutton (I read that ridiculous claim on this site the other day) or any other Australian PM or US POTUS for that matter.

    Trump himself said in public that he will become dictator on day 1.

  11. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 10:03 pm
    nath @ #1302 Sunday, March 17th, 2024 – 9:49 pm

    Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:10 pm

    Yes, and I will continue to “carry on” as you say, opposing homophobia, misogyny and racial hatred despite the constant bitterness and tut-tutting from old white men

    __________
    those toxic white males again!

    So unlike old white women, who courageously fought against racism and homophobia for centuries! Opposed Slavery, fought for the Indigenous everywhere!

    Nasty nath is back.
    —————-
    But is Nath wrong because some progressives talk as if only white males have committed terrible acts when black and brown people and white women have done some nasty stuff.

  12. Rainman:

    “The economic collapse of the Soviet Union during the Cold War was in large part due to its attempt to support poor third world allies whilst under siege by the rich industrialised West.”

    Yes it was called the Cold War. The Soviet Union started it. The West won it. Some people are sad about that, but not me.

  13. Tonifasays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 10:38 pm
    Rainman:

    “The economic collapse of the Soviet Union during the Cold War was in large part due to its attempt to support poor third world allies whilst under siege by the rich industrialised West.”

    Yes it was called the Cold War. The Soviet Union started it. The West won it. Some people are sad about that, but not me.
    ======================================

    Don’t forget the big part that the Catholic Church played in this too. Some Catholic/Union solidarity in Poland that even nath might approve of?.

    https://reason.com/2021/11/20/the-pope-who-helped-bring-down-communism/#:~:text=In%201979%2C%20less%20than%20a,end%20of%20the%20Soviet%20Union.

  14. I love the RWNJs who say they love Drumpf because he speaks the truth love to ignore the bits where he sets out his plans to launch a dictatorship.

    Drumpf is a moron and he would be a moronic dictator but that is clearly his plan, for he himself has said it. And it is not to his credit.

    Jan 6 was just a practise run. A pathetic stupid practise run, but a practise run nonetheless.

    Any “conservative” who is yet to denounce that fool is a fool themselves. They are truly fugged up.

    You have been warned.

  15. I only just realised that on my very-non rolex and modest Seiko diver’s time, day and date watch the date window only begins to start slowing transitioning to the next ascending number at around 11pm the day before. Impressive.

  16. Some classic New South Wales exceptionalism on display, along with with some equally classic examples the way that time contracts the older a person gets. (It’s really quite amusing to see that – despite all their pretensions otherwise – Player One is ultimately just another boomer unaware that the world has passed them by.) It’s 2024, people. There are full grown adults who weren’t even born until after this person had ceased being a union official.

    According to Wikipedia, Jennie George left the ACTU when I was eleven years old, and retired from Parliament when I was twenty-one. She also comes from a different state to the one I have spent the entirety of my life in.

    So, no, surprisingly enough, I’m not actually familiar with this person.

    I’d be interested to know how familiar the exalted denizens of the most important place in the world are with minor public figures turned politicians from Queensland or South Australia or Tasmania who were active during their formative years.

  17. LB:

    it’s not so-much their age, but I would guess a fairly strong callowness defines the two of them.

    More so I think both are newish Australians and thus still figuring out who’s who in the zoo.

    I won’t knock them for that and I infact applaud both Asha and Entropy for the desire and willingness to both learn and engage with the political culture and scene in this country. Not enough of our recent arrivals take the time and thus allow themselves to be both alienated and disenfranchised.

    What in the hell? Are you on the piss again?

    Not that it matters even a little, but I’m a born-and-bred Australian with ancestors who have been here since colonial times. I also happen to be related to more than a few former politicians (mostly on the conservative side, to my shame), for those of you who care about such trivial things.

    But it is true that I have not been so blessed as to have been brought up in the mother colony, and as such I am sometimes lax in my studies of the political scene in the most important place in the world. I’m sure you, on the other hand, have an encyclopedic knowledge of every public figure to have ever held office in Queensland.

    What did you think of Bob Quinn’s stint as Liberal leader, by the way?

  18. Correct weight regarding P1 Asha,

    It was only just a couple of weeks ago that P1 was reminiscing back to the times when the sydney eastern suburbs train line from central to Bondi Junction was opened- In 1979.

    But to underestimate her would be a strategic mistake.

  19. LB:

    Asha, as Paul Keating so brilliantly demonstrated during his celebrated time in the people’s house the art of politicking is 1 part people, 1 part personality…and only 1 part policy.

    I suspect that Paul Keating was not talking about internet forum discussions when he said that.

  20. Asha Bob was a failure as an opposition leader and from memory Beattie romped in in 2001 with omne of the greatest victories in modern QLD state labor history?

    But to his credit he reaffirmed the QLd LNP party’s hold on the GC, even in the face of unchecked and rampant urbanisation and development.

  21. leftieBrawlersays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 11:12 pm
    Correct weight regarding P1 Asha,

    It was only just a couple of weeks ago that P1 was reminiscing back to the times when the sydney eastern suburbs train line from central to Bondi Junction was opened- In 1979.

    But to underestimate her would be a strategic mistake.
    ===================================================

    A strategic mistake?. What opening gambit are you suggesting when taking on P1.

  22. LB:

    Actually, he was never opposition leader, that was Nationals leader Lawrence Springborg. The Liberals were the junior partner. But, otherwise, yeah, I’ll credit that one! Better than I would have done trying to sum up whoever was leading the NSW Liberals in that time! (I vaguely remember Debnam, but thats mostly due to a Chaser sketch.)

  23. Entropy:

    You see, if we underestimate Player One, they will… um… keep posting stuff on an internet forum? No, I don’t know, either.

  24. leftieBrawlersays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 11:26 pm
    She knows people in very high places so tangle with her at your own risk
    =====================================================

    Has a tree walk?. I gather they are quite popular with ecotourism destinations.

  25. Asha I’m a little affected by wrongly dosing myself the incorrect amount of prescription medication tonight but the NSW opposition leader of that vintage would either have been Kerry chicka-something or Johnny Sprogden.

    The most amusing NSW leader of the opp in recent times is no doubt Peter Debnam- bless his cotton socks and unfortunate poor man’s prince charles look of him

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 9:03 pm

    “The Military have to follow the orders of the Commander-In-Chief.”

    Only orders that are legal have to be followed.

  27. How much longer does Michelle Rowland keep her job? Triple 0 calls at risk again, this time because of the 3G shutdown. On top of the email shutdowns she didn’t stop, leaving many people without email addresses (or else subject to data harvesting for those who did keep them), and the ridiculous decision to allow Australia Post to only deliver twice a week. She clearly sees her role as being spokesperson for big business, rather than the person who’s meant to stand up to them on behalf of the Australian people. It goes to Albanese’s competence as well, that two years in, he hasn’t felt the need to have a ministerial reshuffle.

  28. leftieBrawlersays:
    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 12:00 am
    3G Melanie??

    2005 called and they want their Motorola razr flip phone back you silly dolt.
    ========================================================

    LNP supporters just love old technology. If they had their way the 1950s wouldn’t have been allowed to end. Now they are all into building nuclear power stations. Another idea from the 1950s.

  29. Melanie, are you prepared to pay more tax so that the Post Office can deliver every day? If the taxpayers don’t pay for it, who should?

    Note that the letter service is being killed off by Email and other online services. It runs at a loss.

    You might recall that telecommunications in this country has been privatised. Why should a Minister be responsible for failures of private companies? Do you think that these services should be nationalised?

  30. And there goes leftie insulting people again. 3G is about to be shut down, which will leave those people who still have those phones unable to call triple zero. Why don’t you try and keep up with what’s going on? Or are you too busy spending your days trying to think up smug smart arse quips.

  31. Rainmansays:
    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 12:17 am
    And there goes leftie insulting people again. 3G is about to be shut down,
    =======================================================

    Like 2G was before it. It was scheduled to happen and people just need to update. Like when TV went from analogue to digital too.

    Quote: “There is nothing permanent except change.”

  32. The people who have 3G phones, and won’t be able to call triple zero after the shutdown, could well be elderly pensioners, who can’t afford to update to a new smart phone, and are the very people most likely to need emergency services. Of course, wealthy smug smart arses probably just update to every new model as soon as it arrives.

  33. Rainmansays:
    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 12:29 am
    The people who have 3G phones, and won’t be able to call triple zero after the shutdown, could well be elderly pensioners, who can’t afford to update to a new smart phone, and are the very people most likely to need emergency services. Of course, wealthy smug smart arses probably just update to every new model as soon as it arrives.
    ==============================================

    The same applied when 2G was phased out. What were the unnecessary death statistics for the elderly being unable to ring emergency numbers for that event?.

  34. Entropy

    The cost of new phones is ridiculous. Perhaps, the government could subsidise pensioners updating phones. You’re acting like the vulnerable elderly should just move on or shuffle off. And if you want to be pedantic about statistics, go google them yourself.

    And I gather you’re pretty happy with leftie responding to Melanie by calling her a dolt?

  35. Rainmansays:
    Monday, March 18, 2024 at 12:43 am
    Entropy

    And I gather you’re pretty happy with leftie responding to Melanie by calling her a dolt?
    =======================================================

    Dolt is a fairly mild term. Both you and Leftie have used far worse terms at times. I’m certainly not going to make any fuss over dolt.

  36. I’m with Rainman on this because people with money so often forget what is like not to have any because the difference between being on a pension and double the pension is big when it comes to discretionary spending.

  37. 3G is 20 years old. Of course it is shutting down.

    Heading into the FinnAir lounge i Helsinki a few minutes ago, I bumped into Antti Toskala, the engineer at Nokia who is recognised in the industry as the father of WCDMA as the foundation of 3G. He is the co-author of the reference books I’ve teaching from since 2002.

    We discussed 6G standardisation.

  38. leftieBrawlersays:
    Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 11:17 pm
    Asha Bob was a failure as an opposition leader and from memory Beattie romped in in 2001 with omne of the greatest victories in modern QLD state labor history?

    But to his credit he reaffirmed the QLd LNP party’s hold on the GC, even in the face of unchecked and rampant urbanisation and development.

    ____________________________________

    I swear at this point I will vote for whoever promises “unchecked and rampant urbanisation and development”

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